Alibi Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 On 11/11/2020 at 11:16 PM, Ally Bongo said: Was the GRA reforms or new Hate Crime Bill in the SNP Manifesto in the 2016 Holyrood elections ? Will the SNP put either in their manifesto for the 2021 Holyrood elections ? Rightly or wrongly if the 2021 election is (once and for all) about Independence or the right to choose it is a fucking stupid gamble trying to push something through that can easily be misrepresented by the opposition and the media when you need a majority Seem to be too many people at the top of the SNP (and on the NEC I think) who have an agenda, and that agenda does not prioritise independence. Some even saying they prefer or are happy with devolution (Rhiannon Spear was one IIRC) - that should bring an instant dismissal from office or candidature for the individuals concerned. They are entitled to their views, but we don't need fifth columnists in the indy movement or the SNP, particularly people who want to be in a position of power or influence within the Scottish Government. The woke GRA folk are a particularly rather malevolent crew, but they appear to have been found out, which presumably is why Alyn Smyth appears to be turning somersaults to save his own career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 A few polls out today, showing a slight drop in support but still a projected majority Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Polls have +/- 3% error margin so i'd expect a range of 6 percentage points as par for the course anyway. The more polls the greater the chance for even larger drift. That's with a truly neutral sample. Since polling isn't exact it's possible to get an even wider variation even if there were no changes in actual voting intentions. Wake me up when it swings outside those parameters a couple of polls in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 14, 2020 Author Share Posted November 14, 2020 12 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said: A few polls out today, showing a slight drop in support but still a projected majority Two polls released on Thursday, one was a YouGov poll which showed a 2% drop in support for Independence - I assume that's what you're referring to. The other released later in the day by PanelBase, showed 56% support, which was an increase of 1% on the last PanelBase poll but which interestingly is the largest ever support for Indy in an online poll. As ever, don't read too much into a single poll but the YouGov one - while within the margins of error - looks to be a bit of an outlier, particularly as the Indy intention doesn't track the voting intention. Focus on the trend, which is still upwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Legislation passed to delay the election by 6 months if necessary... https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/18877148.holyrood-2021-election-delayed-needed-new-covid-19-legislation/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 11 hours ago, Toepoke said: Legislation passed to delay the election by 6 months if necessary... https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/18877148.holyrood-2021-election-delayed-needed-new-covid-19-legislation/ Hopefully this won’t be needed but sensible to have the contingency there. No doubt the tin hat brigade will use this as proof that the SNP leadership doesn’t really want independence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 29 minutes ago, aaid said: Hopefully this won’t be needed but sensible to have the contingency there. No doubt the tin hat brigade will use this as proof that the SNP leadership doesn’t really want independence. I think the danger of it not happening have receded what with two new vaccines now in the pipeline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: I think the danger of it not happening have receded what with two new vaccines now in the pipeline. There are a lot more than two in the pipeline, but the problem is that they are still very much in the pipeline. It's still too early to be confident about when they will start to have a major impact on controlling the spread of the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, Orraloon said: There are a lot more than two in the pipeline, but the problem is that they are still very much in the pipeline. It's still too early to be confident about when they will start to have a major impact on controlling the spread of the virus. Well they were saying they'd expect a roll-out by Christmas obviously to those most at risk first such as the elderly. By spring next year it should be about rolling out to the next tier of recipients so I'd say I'd be gobsmacked if things haven't improved from now to then. In any case even if they haven't I see no reason why polling stations cannot operate under social distancing. In all elections I have voted in I have never experienced waiting in queues to vote. I went in voted and out again without seeing anyone. Besides I now vote by postal vote as a growing amount do now so that also cuts down on potential numbers at polling stations. I'd have more waiting in queues like I have now at my local post office than I would voting. Bring it on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: Well they were saying they'd expect a roll-out by Christmas obviously to those most at risk first such as the elderly. By spring next year it should be about rolling out to the next tier of recipients so I'd say I'd be gobsmacked if things haven't improved from now to then. In any case even if they haven't I see no reason why polling stations cannot operate under social distancing. In all elections I have voted in I have never experienced waiting in queues to vote. I went in voted and out again without seeing anyone. Besides I now vote by postal vote as a growing amount do now so that also cuts down on potential numbers at polling stations. I'd have more waiting in queues like I have now at my local post office than I would voting. Bring it on. I think the concerns are more about the count rather than the polling stations. Any sort of queues at polling stations will deter people from voting and that’s not a good thing regardless of who you support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, aaid said: I think the concerns are more about the count rather than the polling stations. Any sort of queues at polling stations will deter people from voting and that’s not a good thing regardless of who you support. I'd be gobsmacked if that is not insurmountable though. We have supermarkets with checkouts a few feet apart open so same could be done with the counting. In any case have we not just recently had two by-elections held that passed without a hitch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 minute ago, aaid said: I think the concerns are more about the count rather than the polling stations. Any sort of queues at polling stations will deter people from voting and that’s not a good thing regardless of who you support. Do you know if there are any official figures about which parties tend to get more postal votes? I know Ruth Davidson probably has that information, but anything in the public domain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: Well they were saying they'd expect a roll-out by Christmas obviously to those most at risk first such as the elderly. By spring next year it should be about rolling out to the next tier of recipients so I'd say I'd be gobsmacked if things haven't improved from now to then. In any case even if they haven't I see no reason why polling stations cannot operate under social distancing. In all elections I have voted in I have never experienced waiting in queues to vote. I went in voted and out again without seeing anyone. Besides I now vote by postal vote as a growing amount do now so that also cuts down on potential numbers at polling stations. I'd have more waiting in queues like I have now at my local post office than I would voting. Bring it on. Aye, I don't think there is any reason why it can't be organised so that folk can vote safely. But I don't think COVID will be under control by next May, even if the vaccines turn out to be as good as their manufacturers hope they will be. These things all take time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Aye, I don't think there is any reason why it can't be organised so that folk can vote safely. But I don't think COVID will be under control by next May, even if the vaccines turn out to be as good as their manufacturers hope they will be. These things all take time. No I am not saying everything will be back to normal but it will be a good deal better than how things are at present as millions should, by then, be vaccinated whereas nobody is at present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said: No I am not saying everything will be back to normal but it will be a good deal better than how things are at present as millions should, by then, be vaccinated whereas nobody is at present. I'm going for a wee prediction here. I am guessing that less than one million people in Scotland will be vaccinated by, let's say, 1st May 2021. I hope you are right, and I am wrong, because that would mean a much better chance of having full stadiums for EURO 2021 and, more importantly, more chance of me still being around to see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Orraloon said: I'm going for a wee prediction here. I am guessing that less than one million people in Scotland will be vaccinated by, let's say, 1st May 2021. I hope you are right, and I am wrong, because that would mean a much better chance of having full stadiums for EURO 2021 and, more importantly, more chance of me still being around to see it. Well however many it is will be more than is vaccinated just now so like I say things will have improved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 We're probably at least 6 months away at best from any major vaccination programme. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Orraloon said: There are a lot more than two in the pipeline, but the problem is that they are still very much in the pipeline. It's still too early to be confident about when they will start to have a major impact on controlling the spread of the virus. There won’t be anything taken from the actual votes as they don’t do that sort of analysis. Might be something derived from polls but I’ve never seen anything. Maybe you could look at demographics associated with the type of people who have a postal vote and then try and marry that up with polling data on that demographic. interestingly, recent UK elections have had around 20% postal ballots That’s higher than in the recent US presidential election Anyway, I don’t generally think it’s a good idea to disenfranchise groups of people based on who they might vote for, that tends not to end well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Poor local election result in Clarkmannanshire, majority tory 🙄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Poor local election result in Clarkmannanshire, majority tory 🙄 Not really. It was a Tory hold on a strong Tory area SNP and Green vote share was up slightly. Massive collapse of the Labour vote though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, aaid said: Not really. It was a Tory hold on a strong Tory area SNP and Green vote share was up slightly. Massive collapse of the Labour vote though. Still strange to see tory vote up 9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 20, 2020 Author Share Posted November 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said: Still strange to see tory vote up 9% Because the Labour vote was down by 12%. Pretty easy to see what’s going on there. Small shift of Lab/LibDems to SNP and Greens in line with the national shift from No to Yes. Big shift from Labour to Tory as Unionist vote hardens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 8 hours ago, aaid said: Because the Labour vote was down by 12%. Pretty easy to see what’s going on there. Small shift of Lab/LibDems to SNP and Greens in line with the national shift from No to Yes. Big shift from Labour to Tory as Unionist vote hardens. Might be a sign that voters are starting to get the hang of tactical voting? Although I never read too much into local election results - 35% turnout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 11/18/2020 at 12:54 PM, phart said: We're probably at least 6 months away at best from any major vaccination programme. Shows what I know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted November 24, 2020 Share Posted November 24, 2020 On 11/7/2020 at 11:35 AM, TDYER63 said: It’s a tie for Renfrewshire North and West candidate. Re-ballot. Natalie Don wins re-ballot beating the favourite. Delighted for her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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