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Holyrood Elections 2021


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12 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Feeling a slight shift at the moment and see the snp falling a few percentage points at the next polling, all relating to covid, folk are getting scunnert  

New poll from Survation released today - fieldwork 2-7 September - which isn't showing that and is consistent with other poll showed, ie, majority support for both the SNP and Yes.

Only note of interest is that it seems Labour might have snuck into second place, however that's not because of any increase in support for them but rather that the Tory support is declining so rapidly. 

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52 minutes ago, aaid said:

New poll from Survation released today - fieldwork 2-7 September - which isn't showing that and is consistent with other poll showed, ie, majority support for both the SNP and Yes.

Only note of interest is that it seems Labour might have snuck into second place, however that's not because of any increase in support for them but rather that the Tory support is declining so rapidly. 

Just seen that, anecdotal take from me that there is some frustration building up now. Great polling for the snp thereis no denying that

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1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Just seen that, anecdotal take from me that there is some frustration building up now. Great polling for the snp thereis no denying that

It's not surprising that people are frustrated with regards to COVID, how much people blame the government for that directly and the impact that might have on voting intention - particularly when you consider their alternatives - remains to be seen.  

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Based on what I am hearing from people I know, covid has been, and still is, the thing that is making people swing behind the SNP. I honestly cannot believe the changes in the attitude of friends and family who have previously really disliked Nicola Sturgeon.  My sister is a nurse, my closest friend works in 2 care homes and another friend in a funeral directors. None of them liked her. All thought she was a nippy sweetie and never shut up about independence. 
I was out with them a couple of weeks ago and they have all completely changed their opinion of her mainly based on her daily briefings. 
Was in St Andrews the other day and sitting outside having lunch. Table next to us were 4 women talking pretty loudly and the subject moved onto Nicola Sturgeon. Exact same thing. One of them said she voted No last time but between Brexit and how NS has conducted  herself during this, that she was visible and showed empathy, she had changed her mind and next time she would vote Yes . Was out with a no voting friend yesterday who admitted she would never have voted for independence. She said next time she would be taking it more seriously due to NS . 

I know these are only anecdotal examples, and you can argue whether or not she is actually doing as great a job as she is being given credit for, but I do think there is a degree of this being replicated across the country. People need to feel they can trust the person in charge at a time like this, not everyone is super confident, and she appears to be a calming influence. It  probably also explains the BBC’s decision to stop broadcasting all of the FM’s daily briefing.   

I agree with Loon though that this goodwill will probably only last so long and what happens next will probably determine if the SNP/YES hold onto the newfound support. 

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We could all get out a pen and paper make out lists for independence and for remaining in the union and I am adamant the former would be a far longer list than the latter especially now that there is an incompetent PM at Westminster with a corrupt Tory government. I'd hazard a guess that even your most staunch union would only bolster their list by the same old peddled lies from 2014.

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18 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

Based on what I am hearing from people I know, covid has been, and still is, the thing that is making people swing behind the SNP. I honestly cannot believe the changes in the attitude of friends and family who have previously really disliked Nicola Sturgeon.  My sister is a nurse, my closest friend works in 2 care homes and another friend in a funeral directors. None of them liked her. All thought she was a nippy sweetie and never shut up about independence. 
I was out with them a couple of weeks ago and they have all completely changed their opinion of her mainly based on her daily briefings. 
Was in St Andrews the other day and sitting outside having lunch. Table next to us were 4 women talking pretty loudly and the subject moved onto Nicola Sturgeon. Exact same thing. One of them said she voted No last time but between Brexit and how NS has conducted  herself during this, that she was visible and showed empathy, she had changed her mind and next time she would vote Yes . Was out with a no voting friend yesterday who admitted she would never have voted for independence. She said next time she would be taking it more seriously due to NS . 

I know these are only anecdotal examples, and you can argue whether or not she is actually doing as great a job as she is being given credit for, but I do think there is a degree of this being replicated across the country. People need to feel they can trust the person in charge at a time like this, not everyone is super confident, and she appears to be a calming influence. It  probably also explains the BBC’s decision to stop broadcasting all of the FM’s daily briefing.   

I agree with Loon though that this goodwill will probably only last so long and what happens next will probably determine if the SNP/YES hold onto the newfound support. 

Pretty much spot on,  A significant part of folks decision making When voting is based on trust. The daily briefings has given sturgeon the platform to build up that trust, i hope she does not wreck the trust within the electorate  

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  • 2 weeks later...

I think Covid has helped possibly some of Sturgeon's harshest critics see she's night and day ahead of Johnson when it comes to crisis management and running affairs, or dealing with a pandemic. I know she has her critics, she has enough of them in the SNP never mind the ''that woman,'' or ''Krankie'' mad bastards online ; but with something as serious as Covid, I think its opened a fair amount of people's eyes and comparing it to the absolute shambles Johnson's press conferences and general leadership has been, has helped swing a few over to the SNP.

I noticed a swing to Yes probably about a year ago or so. People who voted Yes were just as adamant, and the soft Yessers were now absolutely whilst the few Nos I knew were reconsidering and certainly less harsh on the thought of it or the SNP.

Still, we've got six months or more to go and who knows. We are a very odd bunch, and I have no idea how the handling of the students and the current new Covid restrictions how people will react to them.

The SNP are losing a lot of big hitters too. I wonder how much of a personal vote Roseanna Cunningham, Mike Russell, Alex Neil etc had in their constituencies.

Douglas Ross will not come across well. He might for a few fishermen in Moray and Banff ; but the central belt, west coast and rest of Scotland, folk will see him for the wee naff he is, so I don't think Sturgeon has anything to worry about in the debates.

There's an ever so slightly softening on the Tories stance, the bigwigs are still saying we had a vote in 2014 etc, but a few backbenchers and previous ministers are now openly admitting if the SNP win a majority, a second referendum cannot be refused. So the key is if the SNP get a majority or with the Greens for the 2021 election.

A long way to go and Covid will dominate the news in to next year as well.

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13 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

I think Covid has helped possibly some of Sturgeon's harshest critics see she's night and day ahead of Johnson when it comes to crisis management and running affairs, or dealing with a pandemic. I know she has her critics, she has enough of them in the SNP never mind the ''that woman,'' or ''Krankie'' mad bastards online ; but with something as serious as Covid, I think its opened a fair amount of people's eyes and comparing it to the absolute shambles Johnson's press conferences and general leadership has been, has helped swing a few over to the SNP.

I noticed a swing to Yes probably about a year ago or so. People who voted Yes were just as adamant, and the soft Yessers were now absolutely whilst the few Nos I knew were reconsidering and certainly less harsh on the thought of it or the SNP.

Still, we've got six months or more to go and who knows. We are a very odd bunch, and I have no idea how the handling of the students and the current new Covid restrictions how people will react to them.

The SNP are losing a lot of big hitters too. I wonder how much of a personal vote Roseanna Cunningham, Mike Russell, Alex Neil etc had in their constituencies.

Douglas Ross will not come across well. He might for a few fishermen in Moray and Banff ; but the central belt, west coast and rest of Scotland, folk will see him for the wee naff he is, so I don't think Sturgeon has anything to worry about in the debates.

There's an ever so slightly softening on the Tories stance, the bigwigs are still saying we had a vote in 2014 etc, but a few backbenchers and previous ministers are now openly admitting if the SNP win a majority, a second referendum cannot be refused. So the key is if the SNP get a majority or with the Greens for the 2021 election.

A long way to go and Covid will dominate the news in to next year as well.

Well lets be honest here the Tories were never a major political force in Scotland. They like to project this image that they are but they haven't been the biggest party in Scotland for three generations. What with their double dealing on Brexit and mis-management of Brexit I'd be gobsmacked if people still feel they can be trusted. Labour have seen their support evaporate quickly in the last ten years - a route back for them in Scotland? Well a start may be if they were to be far more flexible on Scottish Independence issue but I cannot see that happening so they will continue to blow their own foot off with a sawn-off shotgun.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
On 8/23/2020 at 6:18 PM, stocky said:

Aye DOB is Yankee... just checked.

U dont say on yours. 😉  I stalked back at ya

 

Tom should be fine

Nat is a well liked Councillor in the SNP and works hard in a very non-snp area.

The other Lady is very ambitious and keen,  also a good councillor.

I believe Michelle is current favourite, but we will see. 

Mhari's support could help either...

 

 

It’s a tie for Renfrewshire North and West candidate. Re-ballot. 

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On 11/7/2020 at 11:35 AM, TDYER63 said:

It’s a tie for Renfrewshire North and West candidate. Re-ballot. 

Aye , un expected result. 

Natalie has done well , i think the other Lassie was the favourite  😉 

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6 hours ago, stocky said:

Aye , un expected result. 

Natalie has done well , i think the other Lassie was the favourite  😉 

Saw a "heavyweight" endorsement for Natalie Don from Gryffe branch last night on Twitter.

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On 11/9/2020 at 9:46 AM, stocky said:

Aye , un expected result. 

Natalie has done well , i think the other Lassie was the favourite  😉 

She has 👍 You get exactly what you see with Natalie, she is strong, hard working, empathetic  and committed , people warm to that. She has every chance of winning. 
 

On 11/9/2020 at 3:47 PM, aaid said:

Saw a "heavyweight" endorsement for Natalie Don from Gryffe branch last night on Twitter.

He has been really supportive to her 😊

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Once the media and opposition bandwagon go full blast on Humza's Hate Crime Bill and GRA reforms, which they are clearly saving for near the election there is a real possibility of no SNP majority in 2021

There is a high possibility that a large amount of SNP voters wont switch to opposition parties but they wont vote at all - as seen in the 2017 GE

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4 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Once the media and opposition bandwagon go full blast on Humza's Hate Crime Bill and GRA reforms, which they are clearly saving for near the election there is a real possibility of no SNP majority in 2021

There is a high possibility that a large amount of SNP voters wont switch to opposition parties but they wont vote at all - as seen in the 2017 GE

the bill is absolute madness even if there is  possibly good intensions, if the snp want a majority they need to scrap this pronto, its a huge stick to beat the party with..if it is not dropped this tells me they do not seek a majority,, maybe wings is correct in that regard.Any snp member needs to get onto their local branch and express their concerns

Edited by hampden_loon2878
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15 minutes ago, phart said:

What's the specifics of the bill that are bad i've never read it.

I suspect that you won’t get any response as to exactly what’s wrong with it, at least not any reasons that reflect what the bill actually says.  

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53 minutes ago, aaid said:

I suspect that you won’t get any response as to exactly what’s wrong with it, at least not any reasons that reflect what the bill actually says.  

My objections are based on the problems it creates in sports if one can just self ID. However the sports can decide participation rules themselves. Prof Ross Tucker was the physiology expert in regards to world rugby's guidelines.

He has many hours of podcasts explaining the facts and how he interpets them and why he interpeted them etc He made a "short" video here to try and explain them.

 Outside that context I have no objection to anything in principle. In fact it's laudable to try and protect the more vulnerable minorities in society and should be done at all times.

I've not sat down and read the Bill though. So be good to hear from folk that have.

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4 minutes ago, phart said:

My objections are based on the problems it creates in sports if one can just self ID. However the sports can decide participation rules themselves. Prof Ross Tucker was the physiology expert in regards to world rugby's guidelines.

He has many hours of podcasts explaining the facts and how he interpets them and why he interpeted them etc He made a "short" video here to try and explain them.

 Outside that context I have no objection to anything in principle. In fact it's laudable to try and protect the more vulnerable minorities in society and should be done at all times.

I've not sat down and read the Bill though. So be good to hear from folk that have.

I was talking specifically about the Hate Crime bill as I thought that was what you were referring to - I should’ve made that clearer. 

The issues with the GRA bill - on both sides - are pretty well understood and don’t seem to be moving towards a consensus which is probably why it’s been kicked down the road until after the election. 

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Crimes will be allowed to be reported through smartwatches and Alexa devices as part of a communications overhaul by Police Scotland.

Control room staff will also be able to remotely control the mobile phones of those calling in and use them to record continuing incidents. The changes are outlined in a draft strategy document which has been submitted to the Scottish Police Authority for consideration.

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