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I read both the tamb (although much less frequently these days) and wings and if you want to read pages and pages of personal abuse (a lot of it directed at Stuart Campbell funnily enough) and mindles

No , I will reply. I havent launched anything I have replied to your post.  Its your tone and attitude to the idea that people may not agree that SNP 1 /ALBA 2 is the best option. I am still genuine

You are doing a pretty good job of bullying and intimidating folk yourself. Its not a pantomime to be giving consideration to who you want your vote to go to. 

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It's almost as if Sturgeon is trying to avoid getting a majority. She likes being FM with all the perks, but she doesn't want to take indy forward any time soon.  She will always find a reason to delay and prevaricate.  Now is never the time in her eyes.  She is happy being a colonial administrator and talking shite about pronouns.  She and her somewhat weird husband have done immense harm to the indy movement.  I don't think Alex Salmond is the solution as, despite the fact that the worst he's actually done is maybe try to get his hole, he's now untouchable in the eyes of many because of the incessant and disgraceful smearing by the mainstream media.  Compare what he has actually admitted to with all the stuff Boris Johnson has done, and Alex is a saint by comparison.  Jack McConnell had a bit of unauthorised nookie and nobody really turned on him to the same extent.  the British establishment fear Alex and that is why they set out to destroy him.  The shame is that Sturgeon and her harpies seem to have been heavily involved.

I would question whether Sturgeon should actually still be in post, but as leader of the wider indy movement, she is now well past her sell by date, with always a reason to kick the can down the road.  She has been utterly hopeless as far as indy is concerned since the day she took over the SNP leadership. done a reasonable job with Covid and her communication has been excellent, but her insistence that we can't have indy until Covid is away is crazy - what next, no indy until the common cold has been cured?  I'm voting SNP for indy, but if she doesn't get on with it (and she'll have the perfect excuse if she avoids a majority) I hope the SNP membership get her deposed asap.  If she gets a pro-indy majority with Alba included but then refuses to progress indy, we can all draw our own conclusions.

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1 hour ago, Alibi said:

  Compare what he has actually admitted to with all the stuff Boris Johnson has done, and Alex is a saint by comparison.  Jack McConnell had a bit of unauthorised nookie and nobody really turned on him to the same extent.  the British establishment fear Alex and that is why they set out to destroy him. 

Of course, the key fundamental difference between Salmond and Johnson and McConnell is the important aspect of consent.   

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3 hours ago, thplinth said:

I can't be bothered fishing out the post from a while ago where I said that the constant anti-ALBA campaigning was not hurting the ALBA2 vote anymore but was in fact hurting the SNP1 vote... Watching the SNP cut off the nose of the independence movement to spite ALBA's face has been something to witness.

This is exactly what I feared was coming and long before ALBA hit the scene. 

People talking about low turnout but if it is only for one party more than for the others that is not just apathy, that is discontent.

It is only one polling company but it does not look great for May.

We have a problem

Posted on April 30, 2021 by Rev. Stuart Campbell

It’s pretty stark when you see it laid out like this.

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In just four months, the SNP – because if you aggressively assert sole ownership of a political campaign, there’s nobody else you can blame when it goes south – have turned a 10-point lead for independence into a seven-point lead for the Union with the same polling company.

And while that’s pretty brutal in itself, it’s not even the real fly in the ointment.

Because once you have a referendum (or indeed a plebiscitary election) you can always turn things round in the campaign. Being slightly behind at the start is no big deal. But to GET that referendum in the first place, the SNP has bet all its chips on the moral force of a majority of Scots backing one.

That, as Wings has been pointing out for many months, is a terrible plan anyway when its target is Boris Johnson, a man of zero detectable morals. But even if you were the sort of massive clattering gullible idiot who ever thought it might work, it falls completely to pieces when you don’t HAVE a majority of Scots behind you.

In December, as well as a 10-point lead for independence ComRes found 52% of people planning to vote for pro-indy parties on the constituency vote and 50% on the regional list. The two votes tend to get near-enough identical numbers for pretty obvious reasons, so you can reasonably average them, giving you a total of 51% of votes cast for parties backing a new referendum.

That’s a thin margin, but it IS a majority and so you can use it to legitimately say “most Scots have voted for indyref 2 so democracy demands you allow it to happen”. If 51% of the vote is enough for something as big as taking the UK out of the EU, you can’t credibly argue that it’s insufficient for anything else. But where are we now?

The most recent numbers give Yes parties just 45% on the constituency vote and 48% on the list (entirely down to a drop in the SNP vote – Alba and the Greens have held firm). That’s an average of 46.5%, which ISN’T a majority. If those were the actual vote numbers then a clear majority of Scots would have voted for parties OPPOSED to a second indyref, and even in the fantasy land where Boris Johnson is susceptible to a “morality” argument, he wins it and the game’s a bogey.

Of course, as we predicted yesterday, the SNP are blaming everyone else.

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But the awkward truth for Pension Pete is that the chart above clearly shows that the SNP had dropped the ball before Alba ever showed up. The Yes lead and the vote majority were both gone in early February, with No leading by three points and the combined pro-referendum vote down to 49%.

The first poll that included Alba, three weeks ago, in fact brought the independence numbers back UP to 50-50 after two months of No majorities, (perhaps because Alba actually talked about independence), and lifted the vote figures up from 49% to 50.5%, a tiny but crucial step across the winning line.

But weeks of relentless Alba-bashing from the SNP have blown that again – they’ve managed to get the Alba vote down fractionally, but at a significantly greater cost to themselves as they’ve repelled some of their own supporters with deranged and noxious hatred against a fellow indy party mostly comprised of their own former MPs, MSPs, councillors and officeholders.

(Alba didn’t do that – Alba has been telling people to vote SNP in the constituency vote with every breath, even as the SNP relentlessly and bitterly attacks them.)

The result of the SNP’s month-long fit of furious pique is that Yes now trails No by seven points, and as we’ve already noted the election vote is down to 46.5%.

You simply can’t claim any sort of democratic mandate for a binary choice on less than 50% of the vote. Claiming it based on a majority of seats that came from less than a majority of votes is the sort of thing we scream blue murder about when the Tories do it at Westminster, and justly so.

There are differences of opinion over whether this is exactly what the SNP have wanted to achieve all along, of course. But whether they intended it or not, it’s indisputably what’s happened. The supposed captains of the indy ship have blasted a huge hole in the bottom of the hull trying to kill what they see as rats, and unless they stop shooting and start patching in the next six days, all of us will sink with it.

Alba have turned Yes to No for many unsure voters. 

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19 minutes ago, aaid said:

Of course, the key fundamental difference between Salmond and Johnson and McConnell is the important aspect of consent.   

:lol: Yikes.I hope for your sake you are not Ann Blackford posting libelous smears like that, mind you it is not the first time.

You seem to be getting more shrill with every passing day.

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, dipped flake said:

Alba have turned Yes to No for many unsure voters. 

Well I personally know many folk on the fence who would now vote indy because of salmonds return,, alba are not the enemy here, some need to remember that

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42 minutes ago, aaid said:

Of course, the key fundamental difference between Salmond and Johnson and McConnell is the important aspect of consent.   

FFS here we go again. He admitted to a consensual encounter. If you've got evidence of non-consensual ones that wasn't presented in court then it's about time you were talking to Plod.

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16 minutes ago, daviebee said:

FFS here we go again. He admitted to a consensual encounter. If you've got evidence of non-consensual ones that wasn't presented in court then it's about time you were talking to Plod.

It is really poor on aaids behalf,

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23 hours ago, Morrisandmoo said:

Probably: Labour constituency; Tories list.

Labour as I broadly support their politics (excepting independence policy), although SNP have a safe seat here; Tories to bring balance to covid debate/policies. Very difficult choice given how disconnected I am from conservative policies and the abuse that you tolerate for such a choice. But it's the mix of nasty medicine that I think is needed at present, to help us towards a better future in the end. 

And if we end up with an independence referendum...I'll vote yes (again)!

I recognise I might be the only person in Scotland with this mix of voting intentions :)  

Labours policies are broadly in line with SNP, infact they have nicked a few from the SNP so not really sure why, if you support independence,  you would vote for 2 unionist parties. If unionists get in independence is finished. I truly believe it will be too late if that happens  . I get your concern over the SNP’s performance in education, but I wouldn’t say they have performed particularly badly in healthcare. And I am not convinced SLAB would do any better given we have a Tory government in charge of the UKs finances. SLAB are not exactly packed with strong and effective politicians. 
Perhaps you are a Labour supporter who would not be bothered about independence if Labour were back running the UK? I am not criticising it if so, just that it may explain your voting strategy. 

Also, I understand your frustration with the slow reopening of things in relation to covid but do you really think the conservative party are the party to be holding the SG to account in this regard when they ultimately have BJ in charge ? I am not convinced he used the words ‘pile the bodies high’ , that would be too grotesque even for him, but i am pretty sure he is capable of using words that are similar but not quite so incendiary. We may be taking a cautious approach in Scotland but I would take that any day than the kamikaze approach that Johnson would have adopted given the chance. 

13 hours ago, Morrisandmoo said:

I think you are spot on. As bizarre as this sounds...I believe the likelihood of Scotland being independent in 10-25 years time to be higher in the event of an SNP minority or unionist majority outcome. 

Because I am almost certain that 3 years after an indy majority we wake up scratching our heads when the result is 53% NO

I am uncertain what the path to a referendum is in the other scenarios, but I'll accept uncertainty over certain doom every time. Politics can change more than you can ever imagine in an incredibly short time.

The worst thing that can happen to the indy movement is an SNP majority. Folk just don't realise it yet. 

They think covid and Brexit are favourable environmental factors, but they are wrong.

This, perhaps, unorthodox thinking is not the reason why I'm voting the way I am, but I do believe it to be true. 

 

I agree with you on bit on bold as i just dont think there has been enough of a shift. I think I would rather that the SNP had lost support after 2014 than take us through 6 years of hope only for us to fail again.
I hope you are right on your longer term prediction 👍😊

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42 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Well I personally know many folk on the fence who would now vote indy because of salmonds return,, alba are not the enemy here, some need to remember that

As I've said a few times, we will see who is right next week. If Alba take <6% then they have definitely harmed independence. 8%+ and you will be correct. 

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19 minutes ago, dipped flake said:

As I've said a few times, we will see who is right next week. If Alba take <6% then they have definitely harmed independence. 8%+ and you will be correct. 

What’s the rationale for this?

Do you think Alba’s approach to independence is putting off unsure voters?

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41 minutes ago, daviebee said:

FFS here we go again. He admitted to a consensual encounter. If you've got evidence of non-consensual ones that wasn't presented in court then it's about time you were talking to Plod.


Women F, one of the original complainants.   He admitted the basis of the incident and in fact apologised shortly afterwards.

It may not have amounted to attempted rape - the jury certainly didn't think it did - but it was certainly a non-consensual encounter.

 

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3 minutes ago, aaid said:


Women F, one of the original complainants.   He admitted the basis of the incident and in fact apologised shortly afterwards.

It may not have amounted to attempted rape - the jury certainly didn't think it did - but it was certainly a non-consensual encounter.

 

Was that the one where he apologised, she accepted it, continued working closely with him despite being offered and declining another position elsewhere, only to realise that she was offended by the incident after all several years later?

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On 4/29/2021 at 11:20 AM, Morrisandmoo said:

Tories to bring balance to covid debate/policies.

You do realise the Tories have overseen one of the highest amount of Covid cases in Europe. Boris Johnson was advised a year ago to close the borders. He chose not to do so as the party donors were against it   - ££££££££ first and foremost over lives.

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1 hour ago, daviebee said:

Was that the one where he apologised, she accepted it, continued working closely with him despite being offered and declining another position elsewhere, only to realise that she was offended by the incident after all several years later?

Maybe you should look at her evidence to the inquiry for some insight as to the culture around Salmond at the time and why it wouldn't have been possible to take it further at that point.

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17 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The people who have fallen for this bitter nutjob for years on here should hang their heads in shame. Dearie me. :lol: 

I wish you'd name names. It cannae just be me who isn't keeping  details. 

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14 minutes ago, aaid said:

Maybe you should look at her evidence to the inquiry for some insight as to the culture around Salmond at the time and why it wouldn't have been possible to take it further at that point.

Thank you. No further questions.

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1 hour ago, ParisInAKilt said:

What’s the rationale for this?

Do you think Alba’s approach to independence is putting off unsure voters?

That's my worry yes. AS has stated the day after the election he wants to start independence talks. That would be insanity imo and will scare some potential voters

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31 minutes ago, daviebee said:

Thank you. No further questions.

Quote

Organisational culture and barriers to reporting concerns

9. Ms A and Ms B expressed views on an organisational culture which they felt did not challenge inappropriate behaviour by the former First Minister. One of the witnesses told the Committee that “there was complicity across a number of fronts in terms of people not challenging that behaviour” with the witnesses also adding that:

“The culture that existed leading up for a number of years to the point at which we would have had to make complaints was about not challenging behaviours in the first instance, and perhaps there were not clear boundaries for what was appropriate behaviour, or leadership in the organisation to challenge behaviours.”

10. The witnesses also discussed how, in their experience, there were no wider conversations about organisational culture which allowed patterns of behaviour to be identified and addressed. One witness explained:

“There was not a central repository or a place where, cumulatively, you could see that lots and lots of low-level concerns had been expressed and that those were escalating, or were beginning to allow a picture of behaviour to be formed… Whatever procedure you have in place is only as good as the culture that it sits within.”

11. Witnesses shared with the Committee their thoughts on informal resolution, explaining that the difficulty with an organisation addressing behaviours consistently in that way is that there is no visibility for others going through similar experiences. One of the witnesses explained:

“There is no sense in the organisation of what the scale of the problem is and you are unaware whether people are coming forward. They might be having their complaints dealt with in a completely satisfactory way, but you do not know that and you end up thinking, ‘Maybe I am the only one. Maybe everyone else just puts up with this.’ You can end up thinking that there is no point in raising anything, because there is no sense that these things are addressed every week and can work out well for everybody involved.”

12. Sharing their thoughts about the possibility of making a complaint, one witness commented that “making complaints was simply not the done thing”. The witnesses said that there was no promotion or encouragement to use the Fairness at Work policy. One of the witnesses said that, as they read it, the policy would have involved the director of Human Resources (HR) sitting down with the former First Minister and having a chat, continuing:

 “It was just laughable. It was something that was clearly never going to happen; it was a process that you could not imagine trying to apply.”

 

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34 minutes ago, dipped flake said:

That's my worry yes. AS has stated the day after the election he wants to start independence talks. That would be insanity imo and will scare some potential voters

It’s possible. Be interesting to see how the votes go and any data from it afterwards. 

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5 hours ago, dipped flake said:

That's my worry yes. AS has stated the day after the election he wants to start independence talks. That would be insanity imo and will scare some potential voters

Nah... there's a reason that new administrations talk about their plans for their 'first 100 days'. That's when they have the most political capital, and can get things done.

For a new pro-indy parliament to not push ahead with indyref2 (and force Westminster to test the legality in court) would be another error (it should have been done years ago IMO).

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