Jump to content

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Parklife said:

How many pro-Indy seats would there be if the SNP didn't stand on the list and their votes went to the other Indy parties? 

Not sure exactly, if you took all the SNP 2nd votes and gave them all to another party then possibly 4. But the SNP are standing on the list so it's a bit irrelevant. The problem here is Alba standing could be the difference between 2 independence supporting msp's or 2 unionist supporting msp's. A difference of 4 over the other side.

I fully understand giving the 2nd vote to another party in certain areas and hope people do it but in Highland it is a different situation because the 2 Northern Isle seats will go Lib Dem again.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

I read both the tamb (although much less frequently these days) and wings and if you want to read pages and pages of personal abuse (a lot of it directed at Stuart Campbell funnily enough) and mindles

No , I will reply. I havent launched anything I have replied to your post.  Its your tone and attitude to the idea that people may not agree that SNP 1 /ALBA 2 is the best option. I am still genuine

You are doing a pretty good job of bullying and intimidating folk yourself. Its not a pantomime to be giving consideration to who you want your vote to go to. 

Posted Images

1 minute ago, iainmac1 said:

Not sure exactly, if you took all the SNP 2nd votes and gave them all to another party then possibly 4. But the SNP are standing on the list so it's a bit irrelevant. The problem here is Alba standing could be the difference between 2 independence supporting msp's or 2 unionist supporting msp's. A difference of 4 over the other side.

I fully understand giving the 2nd vote to another party in certain areas and hope people do it but in Highland it is a different situation because the 2 Northern Isle seats will go Lib Dem again.

But Alba are standing on the list, so what you're saying is irrelevant too... 

Why is Alba standing on the list & potentially resulting in less Indy MSPs out of order but the SNP doing it okay? 

The SNP aren't entitled to any pro-Indy voters vote, especially given their actual ambivalence to independence 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Parklife said:

How many pro-Indy seats would there be if the SNP didn't stand on the list and their votes went to the other Indy parties? 

I suspect that in that case there would be legal challenges and that the Electoral Commission might get involved.   The "Labour" Party is actually two separate parties, there is the Labour Party and the Co-operative Party.  They are separate entities but have had an electoral pact for the best part of 100 years.   For example Johann Lamont, James Kelly, Rhoda Grant, Neil Bibby, David Stewart and Claudia Beamish are Co-operative Party MSPs.

In 1999, there was some suggestion that they might do similar and the Labour Party would contest constituencies and teh Co-operative Party would contest the list, so they'd maximise their seats.  It was ruled that if they did that, they would have to be considered as one party for list allocations, which is how it happens.

Now clearly there is not the same level of concerted co-operation between say the SNP and Alba, but if the SNP were to go into a similar sort of even unofficial pact I suspect it would be considered as an unlawful attempt to game the system.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, iainmac1 said:

 

I don't think Alba will register in Highlands at all and that is an area where they will harm the pro independence vote and shouldn't have stood there. Obviously if all SNP 2nd votes went to them it would make a difference but that is never going to happen.

In 2011 the SNP won 6/8 constituencies but still got 3 extra list seats with 47.5% of the list vote.

In 2016 the SNP again won 6/8 constituencies but only got 1 list seat with 39.7% of the list vote. Green got 7.2% and 1 seat meaning 1 more Tory was elected.

This is where Alba could damage the pro independence vote. If they take  a few percentage of the SNP 2nd vote then it could mean 0 SNP list seats another unionist elected, meaning 2 more compared to 2011. A slightly bigger SNP 2nd vote though could return a 2nd SNP list seat as well as returning a Green, matching up with 2011's 3 independence supporting list seats. Alba could mess this all up and aid the unionists with a couple of extra seats.

 

If the Snp are relying on 1 seat in the highlands for a majority then they have messed up the election.. i dint think the snp realise the frustration of having list seat cronyism within their membership especially when they put forward candidates like spears and roddick,, the list seat candidate in the northeast scotland, although suited to urban metropolitan areas and I actually like her will not relate to the rural and costal areas of the northeast.. i cant express how much apathy is going to play in this election and i personally believe that alba has gave the yes friendly folk a shit in the arm,, hopefully that will counter act the apathy on our side 

Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

If the Snp are relying on 1 seat in the highlands for a majority then they have messed up the election.. i dint think the snp realise the frustration of having list seat cronyism within their membership especially when they put forward candidates like spears and roddick,, the list seat candidate in the northeast scotland, although suited to urban metropolitan areas and I actually like her will not relate to the rural and costal areas of the northeast.. i cant express how much apathy is going to play in this election and i personally believe that alba has gave the yes friendly folk a shit in the arm,, hopefully that will counter act the apathy on our side 

Nothing like a shit in the arm to knock the apathy out of you. :lol: Better watch out, aaid might have you prosecuted for that, it's probably a sexual offence these days.

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

If the Snp are relying on 1 seat in the highlands for a majority then they have messed up the election.. i dint think the snp realise the frustration of having list seat cronyism within their membership especially when they put forward candidates like spears and roddick,, the list seat candidate in the northeast scotland, although suited to urban metropolitan areas and I actually like her will not relate to the rural and costal areas of the northeast.. i cant express how much apathy is going to play in this election and i personally believe that alba has gave the yes friendly folk a shit in the arm,, hopefully that will counter act the apathy on our side 

The North East region has the third and fourth biggest cities in Scotland in it - it's not all wee fishing vilages.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

If the Snp are relying on 1 seat in the highlands for a majority then they have messed up the election.. i dint think the snp realise the frustration of having list seat cronyism within their membership especially when they put forward candidates like spears and roddick,, the list seat candidate in the northeast scotland, although suited to urban metropolitan areas and I actually like her will not relate to the rural and costal areas of the northeast.. i cant express how much apathy is going to play in this election and i personally believe that alba has gave the yes friendly folk a shit in the arm,, hopefully that will counter act the apathy on our side 

According to the Ashcroft study, "Not only does the SNP maintain its clear lead in the Holyrood elections, its support is more intense: those naming the nationalists as their most likely choice put their chances of actually turning out to vote for them higher than those of other parties’ potential backers ..."

I don't know if that means if this means SNP1 and/or SNP2 voting interntions. I'd have thought Alba supporters would be high likelihood of viting, given they must be motivated enough to follow politics in the first place.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The Ashcroft study as reported in Holyrood magazine was not just a survey but also included focus groups. It has several angles including forecast votes for all the parties and popularity of their leaders. 

Also has some analysis of indy attitudes, suggesting 15% of 2014 No voters would now vote Yes, while 11% of 2014 Yessers would now vote No. (That's not very much of a difference.)

Also says SNP and Green supporters are more optimistic about the future and that the best is ahead of us :ok:

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, exile said:

According to the Ashcroft study, "Not only does the SNP maintain its clear lead in the Holyrood elections, its support is more intense: those naming the nationalists as their most likely choice put their chances of actually turning out to vote for them higher than those of other parties’ potential backers ..."

I don't know if that means if this means SNP1 and/or SNP2 voting interntions. I'd have thought Alba supporters would be high likelihood of viting, given they must be motivated enough to follow politics in the first place.

Although aaid will never admit to it,albas presence may well help the snp, obviously we will not know until polling day,, i hope this is the case and i hope the snp settle down in the last week of this election and go after the real threat. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Although aaid will never admit to it,albas presence may well help the snp, obviously we will not know until polling day,, i hope this is the case and i hope the snp settle down in the last week of this election and go after the real threat. 

If the SNP do well next week then Alba will be quick to claim the credit, I'm pretty sure of that.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, aaid said:

I suspect that in that case there would be legal challenges and that the Electoral Commission might get involved.   The "Labour" Party is actually two separate parties, there is the Labour Party and the Co-operative Party.  They are separate entities but have had an electoral pact for the best part of 100 years.   For example Johann Lamont, James Kelly, Rhoda Grant, Neil Bibby, David Stewart and Claudia Beamish are Co-operative Party MSPs.

In 1999, there was some suggestion that they might do similar and the Labour Party would contest constituencies and teh Co-operative Party would contest the list, so they'd maximise their seats.  It was ruled that if they did that, they would have to be considered as one party for list allocations, which is how it happens.

Now clearly there is not the same level of concerted co-operation between say the SNP and Alba, but if the SNP were to go into a similar sort of even unofficial pact I suspect it would be considered as an unlawful attempt to game the system.

 

I'm not suggesting a pact or anything of the sort. Merely questioning why Iain was annoyed at Alba for costing Indy list seats but not at the SNP who're costing much more Indy list seats. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, exile said:

 

Also has some analysis of indy attitudes, suggesting 15% of 2014 No voters would now vote Yes, while 11% of 2014 Yessers would now vote No. (That's not very much of a difference.)

 

It is actually quite a difference.

15%of 2 million ( no votes 2014) =300,000

11%of 1.6 million ( yes votes 2014) = 176,000 

Remember the difference last time was only 190000 votes. 

Plus I don't think that many 'former yessers' would vote no next time.

It might just be wishful thinking on my behalf, however once you know the false premise and lies the UK is built on, you can't un know that.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Archiesdad said:

It is actually quite a difference.

15%of 2 million ( no votes 2014) =300,000

11%of 1.6 million ( yes votes 2014) = 176,000 

Remember the difference last time was only 190000 votes. 

Plus I don't think that many 'former yessers' would vote no next time.

It might just be wishful thinking on my behalf, however once you know the false premise and lies the UK is built on, you can't un know that.

 

Fair enough. I should have said, 15% and 11% seem like less of a difference than I'd imagined.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Morrisandmoo said:

I've got a hunch that there will be more secret conservative voters than opinion polls expect coming out on the day, which might put a wrench in the pro-independence super-majority.

 

That's certainly what happened last time.  The results of the other main parties were well within the expected margins but the Tory vote turned out to be quite significantly higher than the polls suggested.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Parklife said:

Why is Alba standing on the list & potentially resulting in less Indy MSPs out of order but the SNP doing it okay?

I can think of two possible reasons why it seems to be this way (even if you don't agree it should be seen this way).

One is that if things are ticking along, then a newcomer comes along and shakes things up, and then everything goes pear shaped, then the newcomer is likely to get most of the blame, even if the incumbent was underperforming all along.

Another is to do with judging against objectives. If there is only one indy party, and their objective is simply to stand up for Scotland and represent the independence cause in parliament, then however many votes or seats they get, they can be seen as fulfilling that objective. If another party comes along whose main purpose is to boost the number of pro-indy MSPs on the list, but in fact its participation redistributes the pro-indy votes in a way that results in a loss of pro-indy MSPs, then it can be seen to have failed its objectives - and also harmed the overall cause for everyone else.

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, scotlad said:

That's certainly what happened last time.  The results of the other main parties were well within the expected margins but the Tory vote turned out to be quite significantly higher than the polls suggested.

 

The fact that folk are too ashamed to admit they vote conservative says it all . Even if you agree with the party’s  politics , voting for a party with Boris Johnson in charge is the ultimate humiliation . 
I do agree though that this is a potential threat. 
 

Link to post
Share on other sites

...and by the same logic, if things are just ticking along, and a newcomer comes along and the indy votes and seats go up, then the newcomer is likely to get the credit, even if the incumbent did most of the 'heavy lifting'.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is why you are mad to vote GREENS2 instead of ALBA2 if you are wanting an pro-independence party.

2E6DA604-A7F3-46F1-8854-B8601D59CDD2-768

https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,less-than-half-of-scottish-green-voters-in-favour-of-independence

Perhaps not a surprise considering...

8808F9B5-F38C-4228-A111-ACBF090D818F-768

Irrespective of ALBA I have always said the GREENS will stab the Independence movement in the back and let us down on when it matters most, I guarantee it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Undecided voters are much more likely to trust the greens than Alba. If Alba cost us an independence supporting majority I hope I never see Salmond's face again. If, on the other hand they help create a big majority I'll admit I called them wrong. We'll see in a weeks time

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, exile said:

I can think of two possible reasons why it seems to be this way (even if you don't agree it should be seen this way).

One is that if things are ticking along, then a newcomer comes along and shakes things up, and then everything goes pear shaped, then the newcomer is likely to get most of the blame, even if the incumbent was underperforming all along.

Another is to do with judging against objectives. If there is only one indy party, and their objective is simply to stand up for Scotland and represent the independence cause in parliament, then however many votes or seats they get, they can be seen as fulfilling that objective. If another party comes along whose main purpose is to boost the number of pro-indy MSPs on the list, but in fact its participation redistributes the pro-indy votes in a way that results in a loss of pro-indy MSPs, then it can be seen to have failed its objectives - and also harmed the overall cause for everyone else.

The real reason for Iain saying what he said imo is that he thinks the snp are entitled to pro-Indy voters votes. 

It's a common attitude within the SNP to blame others for the SNP not getting the votes they require, rather than looking inwardly at why it's happened. 

Not sure where to give my 2nd vote. The Tory leaflet I got through the door claims that in Central Scotland last time the Tories only got the last list seat from the Greens by 1800 votes, so I'm leaning Green at this point. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Greens are attracting 'non nationalist' or Unionist voters then you could say that's helping to boost what are counted as a pro-indy votes and seat - to balance the fact that some indy supporters may vote Labour but Labour are counted as pro-UK votes and seats. 

Of course everyone can choose who to trust or not to trust.

So far, in this campaign at least, Harvie and Slater seem as positive and robustly pro-indy as anyone (and less attacking of other indy parties).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted by the SNP Student's "Our LGBT+ students group leader Jack Boag outlines why he's voting SNP on the 23rd of May".

https://ms-my.facebook.com/snpstudents/videos/jack-boag-eu-elections/302769990598656/

Quite revealing as he is now in the GREENS it seems.

E5024BDB-C5E3-47B9-B61B-DCA118754089.jpe

This is the thing, the wokerati faction who have effectively done a 'reverse takeover' of the SNP (from the head down, no grass roots support at all) are all extremely "soft on independence". And that is being kind to say the least.

The wokies in the SNP are typically all ex-labour serial losers who jumped ship to the SNP after Labour's support collapsed. They are political parasites / grifters who don't really give a shit about independence, it is just a vehicle they have hijacked to get all the woke crap they want enforced into laws.

The GREENS have been even more captured by the woke agenda mentalists than the SNP.

I now think that both parties (the SNP & GREENS) have been near completely subverted from their original goals. (I am not sure it is just a co-incidence.)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Posted by the SNP Student's "Our LGBT+ students group leader Jack Boag outlines why he's voting SNP on the 23rd of May".

https://ms-my.facebook.com/snpstudents/videos/jack-boag-eu-elections/302769990598656/

Quite revealing as he is now in the GREENS it seems.

E5024BDB-C5E3-47B9-B61B-DCA118754089.jpe

This is the thing, the wokerati faction who have effectively done a 'reverse takeover' of the SNP (from the head down, no grass roots support at all) are all extremely "soft on independence". And that is being kind to say the least.

The wokies in the SNP are typically all ex-labour serial losers who jumped ship to the SNP after Labour's support collapsed. They are political parasites / grifters who don't really give a shit about independence, it is just a vehicle they have hijacked to get all the woke crap they want enforced into laws.

The GREENS have been even more captured by the woke agenda mentalists than the SNP.

I now think that both parties (the SNP & GREENS) have been near completely subverted from their original goals. (I am not sure it is just a co-incidence.)

 

Apparently Sturegon follows Gregor Fisher on twitter, the non binary cretin who likes to abuse women on social media and who is remarkably still an independent counsellor in Dundee. 

These student activists are bat crazy but what’s scary is, they are being indulged by the parties and will probably be in positions of power one day. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...



×
×
  • Create New...