Holyrood Elections 2021

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Aye, pretty balanced. Who are you trying to kid?

"A Scottish government inquiry upheld a number of sexual harassment complaints against him but was declared unlawful because of procedural failings.)"

Well that's what actually happened, so I'm not really sure what your point is.

I note that you failed to quote this part of the article - which is odd because its something that you yourself will point out at the drop of a hat.

"Salmond was cleared of 14 sexual assault charges following a trial in Edinburgh in March 2020"

Edited April 27, 2021 by aaid

[Caledonian Craig]

16 minutes ago, aaid said:

What's wrong with the headline exactly?  It's a straight lift from a quote and it pretty accurately reflects the piece.

How does it reflect the article though? After all you say it is well-balanced yet the headline is a full front-on attack on a pro-independence party leader and quotes a pro-unionist.

[aaid]

1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

How does it reflect the article though? After all you say it is well-balanced yet the headline is a full front-on attack on a pro-independence party leader and quotes a pro-unionist.

Quotes a pro-unionist 🤔

 

Quote

“I don’t trust him,” says Russell Mackay, another SNP supporter,

 

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

Quotes a pro-unionist 🤔

 

 

However, you look at it - the headline screams pro-union.

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

However, you look at it - the headline screams pro-union.

The article highlights antipathy towards Salmond and a certain apathy towards the election and the headline reflects that.  I can hardly see how that can be seen to be screaming pro-Union.

You could put together an argument that it is not balanced as there's no one supporting Salmond/Alba quoted, but all the people who are quoted as being antipathetic towards him are pro-Indy, so its not Unionist hatchet job.

Newspapers don't have the same requirement as broadcasters have to provide balance even if that flows into false equivalence.

 

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

The article highlights antipathy towards Salmond and a certain apathy towards the election and the headline reflects that.  I can hardly see how that can be seen to be screaming pro-Union.

You could put together an argument that it is not balanced as there's no one supporting Salmond/Alba quoted, but all the people who are quoted as being antipathetic towards him are pro-Indy, so its not Unionist hatchet job.

Newspapers don't have the same requirement as broadcasters have to provide balance even if that flows into false equivalence.

 

I will agree to disagree here. Look at the article headline and it screams pro-union. If you can point out to me anything said in the headline that is anything than pro-union then I am staggered.

[thplinth]

Might be worthwhile quoting the latest Craig Murray article again here...

Bypassing the Road Block 226

April 23, 2021  in Uncategorized by craig

---

I almost never write about somebody else’s article, but this from Barrhead Boy sums up exactly how I feel today. 80% by readership of the pro-Independence new media has been disillusioned by the current SNP leadership to the point of turning against it. Peter Bell, Barrhead Boy, Robin McAlpine, James Kelly, Jeggit, Stuart Campbell, Iain Lawson, and me – I could go on with a dozen more – these were the writers to whom pro-Independence people turned in their hundreds of thousands to escape from the diet of unionist propaganda they were fed from the BBC and papers. These bloggers and independent journalists were, along with the All Under One Banner marches, the heartbeat of Independence. The SNP notably was not that – it had effectively banned discussion of Independence. Long term readers will recall I was even blocked by Murrell from holding a fringe meeting on Independence – when a delegate – at SNP conference, but told I could hold one on another subject.

The bloggers I name are all people who have dedicated their recent lives almost entirely to the cause of Scottish Independence. The 2014 Yes campaign was primarily a street movement, reinforced by bloggers and with real public meetings all over Scotland. I believe only Robin McAlpine spoke at more meetings during the Indyref campaign than I did, and I believe since 2014 nobody has given more speeches and talks on Independence than I. To alienate such dedicated people is astonishing.

How has it happened? Well, the fact that the SNP leadership has won the adoration of the Guardian while losing the support of pro-Independence new media says it all. That is sufficient explanation. There are differences between the pro-Independence bloggers I name, in the extent to which they were SNP members or not, but they have one thing in common. Everybody on that list – along with the leadership of AUOB – has come to doubt the genuine intent of the current SNP leadership to achieve Independence.

The adoration goes both ways it seems.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2021/04/bypassing-the-road-block/

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by thplinth

[hampden_loon2878]

Out leafleting today and what i will say is alec has a lot to do, spoke with a lot of snp supporters and they simply dont get the system,, most once its explained all go for salmond on the list vote,, its getting that awareness thats the problem

[kumnio]

7 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Out leafleting today and what i will say is alec has a lot to do, spoke with a lot of snp supporters and they simply dont get the system,, most once its explained all go for salmond on the list vote,, its getting that awareness thats the problem

I’m not disagreeing with you, but how can people still not understand the system, it’s not that hard to get. 

[hampden_loon2878]

10 minutes ago, kumnio said:

I’m not disagreeing with you, but how can people still not understand the system, it’s not that hard to get. 

Its more that the 2nd vote in the northeast is pretty much wasted, they are apprehensive of giving another party their vote,, the first time in my voting life i have voted another party other than the snp,, a strange feeling even though they got my first vote 

[thplinth]

When I asked members of my family what they knew about ALBA most had not a clue what they were proposing. The one person I explained it to, did grasp it quick enough but I think for the most part for the SNP voters who don't take an active interest in politics this will just pass them by.

Outside of wings, places like here no one is discussing it in the mainstream media. When they do it is only to hiss and spit venom at ALBA not promote their supermajority plan. Why would they, they know the plan is potentially dangerous.

Someone said ALBA is only going to hurt independence. Hmmm well if that was the case you'd think they'd be pushing ALBA non-stop rather than blanking them.

So who the hell is actually willing and able to explain it to voters in Scotland in significant numbers. Well the SNP could have helped, but they did the opposite.

I think it will come down to those existing SNP voters who are savvy enough to work out what is going on for themselves and vote accordingly. Up to 2014 at least you only became an SNP voter despite the mainstream media not because of it so it is hard to say how many that is, they are not your typical voters.

Considering they launched 6 weeks before an election if ALBA got 8 seats that would be some achievement.

Really though who knows, very hard to call this one one way or the other. I am sure that the SNP will be absolutely fine and get just as many seats as normal no matter what happens with ALBA. So it is strange the SNP are so keen to piss all over ALBA for wanting to take seats of unionists that they can't effectively compete for. Self destructive in fact.

Edited April 27, 2021 by thplinth

[Lamia]

9 minutes ago, thplinth said:

 

Really though who knows, very hard to call this one one way or the other. I am sure that the SNP will be absolutely fine and get just as many seats as normal no matter what happens with ALBA. So it is strange the SNP are so keen to piss all over ALBA 

Probably because they have taken a quick look at the candidates. 

[Orraloon]

57 minutes ago, kumnio said:

I’m not disagreeing with you, but how can people still not understand the system, it’s not that hard to get. 

It's not the understanding that's the problem, as you say it's not difficult. It's more that so many folk have no interest in it. Less than 60% of the electorate will be interested enough to even vote at all. I'm just guessing here, but IMO less than half of that 60% will be interested enough to bother trying to understand the system.

[thplinth]

31 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Probably because they have taken a quick look at the candidates. 

For a party running with Joshua (Mammy's Boy) Mennie and Rhiannon (I'm not mental) Spears as candidates (to name just two glaring examples) I very much doubt that Lamia. 

One of the less well known reasons for NOT voting SNP2 on the regional vote is that most of the complete and utter wokerati roasters that are standing for the SNP as candidates are standing on the regional vote for the SNP.

So not only is voting SNP2 almost certainly a waste of time. Even if we do waste a million SNP2 votes to get a SNP regional candidate elected, chances are they will be a complete woke berk.

[jailender]

31 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It's not the understanding that's the problem, as you say it's not difficult. It's more that so many folk have no interest in it. Less than 60% of the electorate will be interested enough to even vote at all. I'm just guessing here, but IMO less than half of that 60% will be interested enough to bother trying to understand the system.

This 👍

[Och Aye]

43 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It's not the understanding that's the problem, as you say it's not difficult. It's more that so many folk have no interest in it. Less than 60% of the electorate will be interested enough to even vote at all. I'm just guessing here, but IMO less than half of that 60% will be interested enough to bother trying to understand the system.

Exactly this. Sad but true. 

[kumnio]

Just seen Alex Salmond and the Alba Party in Dundee, I’d guess there were 30-40 people listening to him. The weather here is dismal, no idea if it was a planned event, or just a photo op, but sod standing outside in these conditions. 

[Lamia]

3 hours ago, thplinth said:

For a party running with Joshua (Mammy's Boy) Mennie and Rhiannon (I'm not mental) Spears as candidates (to name just two glaring examples) I very much doubt that Lamia. 

One of the less well known reasons for NOT voting SNP2 on the regional vote is that most of the complete and utter wokerati roasters that are standing for the SNP as candidates are standing on the regional vote for the SNP.

So not only is voting SNP2 almost certainly a waste of time. Even if we do waste a million SNP2 votes to get a SNP regional candidate elected, chances are they will be a complete woke berk.

The difference being the SNP actually have some decent candidates too

[exile]

8 hours ago, aaid said:

Before people get agitated, I think that is the third poll that Panelbase have done which has shown Alba on 6%.  So even if that's right, it shows their support static, not increasing as I suspect it will be being spun.  Also all the other polls have had them between 1 and 3%.  So either Panelbase is picking up something which no one else is or their methodology and/or samples are unrepresentative and favourable to Alba.

Also - and I haven't seen the data - a seat prediction of 8 off 6% is realistic *if* that is uniform across all regions, I suspect it won't be and, what will be more likely - if this poll is correct - would be winning more than enough votes in some regions to get one seat but not enough to get two but falling short in other regions.   

Anyway, we'll know for certain in 10 days or so.

I am not sure how accurate the seat projections would be. If it's some kind of uniform swing then as you say the reality could yet be something quite different. I guess the vote shares are more reliable, and they seem stuck, or stable, at around 50% pro-indy (slightly below on constituency, slightly above on list).

[exile]

Going back to the Guardian article, generally I have found Libby Brooks to be pretty fair and balanced, as journalists go. I remember in 2014 she was one of the few working in mainstream media or from a London paper, who actually went out on the streets and to public meeetings and reported the atmosphere and what real people were thinking and saying - much of it positive for the indy side, where due.

I assume the headline was cherry-picked to make out Salmond bad, by a (sub)editor.

As for the rest of the Guardian their senior Scottish correspondent, Severin Carrell, I wouldn't trust with a barge-pole.

Several long term columnists are staunchly Unionist, or lefty 'internationalist' of the type who see "all nationalism is wrong" and the SNP as one step from a slippery descent into fascism (while ignoring their own acceptrance of, say, Irish nationalism, independence for other countries, and their own British nationalism). Their overall Editorial line seems to be drawn from that lot. Then they have occasional guest writers who are pro indy... 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, exile said:

I am not sure how accurate the seat projections would be. If it's some kind of uniform swing then as you say the reality could yet be something quite different. I guess the vote shares are more reliable, and they seem stuck, or stable, at around 50% pro-indy (slightly below on constituency, slightly above on list).

Panelbase unfortunately don’t give a regional breakdown so it’s impossible to say.  

Dont know how true this is but I saw a comment earlier that the way they present the questions - which other companies don’t do - favours parties like Alba and gives an over representation of them. 
 

apparently this has happened before with UKIP and the SSP

[hampden_loon2878]

19 minutes ago, aaid said:

Panelbase unfortunately don’t give a regional breakdown so it’s impossible to say.  

Dont know how true this is but I saw a comment earlier that the way they present the questions - which other companies don’t do - favours parties like Alba and gives an over representation of them. 
 

apparently this has happened before with UKIP and the SSP

Alba will get four seats, thats my prediction just now, snp even stevens from last election and greens at best gain 2 

[hampden_loon2878]

Just now, hampden_loon2878 said:

Alba will get four seats, thats my prediction just now, snp even stevens from last election and greens at best gain 2 

I also think alba will get a foothold in the highlands and islands, especially skye area

[iainmac1]

20 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I also think alba will get a foothold in the highlands and islands, especially skye area

 

I don't think Alba will register in Highlands at all and that is an area where they will harm the pro independence vote and shouldn't have stood there. Obviously if all SNP 2nd votes went to them it would make a difference but that is never going to happen.

In 2011 the SNP won 6/8 constituencies but still got 3 extra list seats with 47.5% of the list vote.

In 2016 the SNP again won 6/8 constituencies but only got 1 list seat with 39.7% of the list vote. Green got 7.2% and 1 seat meaning 1 more Tory was elected.

This is where Alba could damage the pro independence vote. If they take  a few percentage of the SNP 2nd vote then it could mean 0 SNP list seats another unionist elected, meaning 2 more compared to 2011. A slightly bigger SNP 2nd vote though could return a 2nd SNP list seat as well as returning a Green, matching up with 2011's 3 independence supporting list seats. Alba could mess this all up and aid the unionists with a couple of extra seats.

 

Edited April 28, 2021 by iainmac1

[Parklife]

24 minutes ago, iainmac1 said:

 

I don't think Alba will register in Highlands at all and that is an area where they will harm the pro independence vote and shouldn't have stood there. Obviously if all SNP 2nd votes went to them it would make a difference but that is never going to happen.

In 2011 the SNP won 6/8 constituencies but still got 3 extra list seats with 47.5% of the list vote.

In 2016 the SNP again won 6/8 constituencies but only got 1 list seat with 39.7% of the list vote. Green got 7.2% and 1 seat meaning 1 more Tory was elected.

This is where Alba could damage the pro independence vote. If they take  a few percentage of the SNP 2nd vote then it could mean 0 SNP list seats another unionist elected, meaning 2 more compared to 2011. A slightly bigger SNP 2nd vote though could return a 2nd SNP list seat as well as returning a Green, matching up with 2011's 3 independence supporting list seats. Alba could mess this all up and aid the unionists with a couple of extra seats.

 

How many pro-Indy seats would there be if the SNP didn't stand on the list and their votes went to the other Indy parties?