Holyrood Elections 2021 - Page 24 - Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere - Tartan Army Message Board Jump to content

Holyrood Elections 2021


Recommended Posts

17 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Màiri McAllan Looks a good solid snp candidate, anyone know much about her? 

She's from a farming background; I think she stood against Fluffy Mundell in the 2017 GE but came a fairly distant second.  This time, she's standing in Clydesdale, the seat Aileen Campbell is vacating.

I've seen her speak a few times now though and I've been impressed by her too.  Aileen Campbell won with a decent majority in 2016, hopefully Mairi McAllan can repeat that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My anecdotal non-scientific evidence from the last few elections. 

2015 - 5 people I know all voted SNP

2016 - I think the same folk were SNPx2.

2017 - all 5 for some reason or another didn't vote. Lack of engagement in the campaign, lethargy, shite SNP campaign, who knows, but these same people did not vote at all. 

2019 - they all turned out and voted SNP again.

2021 - all 5 of them are in the Angus South/NE area and know of the 'system' of voting and reasonably engaged in politics. 2 went SNP/SNP (one was leaning Alba, the other Green) yet they ticked both votes SNP and sent off their vote ; 2 went SNP/Green ; 1 SNP/Alba. 

Suppose we'll see in a couple of weeks how that shapes up, but I think Alba and the Greens may well get a list MSP! Reckon Eck should do it with his base in the NE (it's huge region too from basically Broughty Ferry to the Highlands). 

The two that went SNP twice know the system, but believe were speaking to a friend who's an SNP activist who told them the SNP will lose 3 seats in the NE (no idea how legit that is) but I thought it was shite to be honest ; so think it scared them in to SNP x 2. 

Sit tiight and see if those SNP list votes are of any use.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, weekevie04 said:

My anecdotal non-scientific evidence from the last few elections. 

2015 - 5 people I know all voted SNP

2016 - I think the same folk were SNPx2.

2017 - all 5 for some reason or another didn't vote. Lack of engagement in the campaign, lethargy, shite SNP campaign, who knows, but these same people did not vote at all. 

2019 - they all turned out and voted SNP again.

2021 - all 5 of them are in the Angus South/NE area and know of the 'system' of voting and reasonably engaged in politics. 2 went SNP/SNP (one was leaning Alba, the other Green) yet they ticked both votes SNP and sent off their vote ; 2 went SNP/Green ; 1 SNP/Alba. 

Suppose we'll see in a couple of weeks how that shapes up, but I think Alba and the Greens may well get a list MSP! Reckon Eck should do it with his base in the NE (it's huge region too from basically Broughty Ferry to the Highlands)

The two that went SNP twice know the system, but believe were speaking to a friend who's an SNP activist who told them the SNP will lose 3 seats in the NE (no idea how legit that is) but I thought it was shite to be honest ; so think it scared them in to SNP x 2. 

Sit tiight and see if those SNP list votes are of any use.

Hope you're not trying to disown Dundee?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, exile said:

This article has a lot of analysis on 2016 including regional swings away from SNP to Tory in NE.

Could settle some arguments? 😉

SP21 – What Happened to the SNP’s Majority in 2016?

That's a really good piece.  The guy who wrote it is a Green, but at least he admits his bias, but I find it hard to disagree with anything in it.

The thing that should be obvious - and that piece highlights it - is that it is really the referendum in 2014 that is the event which highlights the division in Scottish politics along constitutional grounds.  An event which was supposed to settle the question actually left if unanswered and entrenched in Scottish politics over and above anything else.

Up to and including the 2011 election there were a sizeable number of people who while they did not support independence they were prepared to vote for the SNP for a variety of reasons and - as this piece highlights - that was most obvious in some of what were considered SNP heartlands.   The fact that the SNP polled 45% in 2011 when support for Indy was in the high 20s pretty much proves that,

They felt comfortable in voting for the SNP for a couple of reasons, they might have thought that it was a safe vote as there wouldn't be an Indy majority and even if there were, the support in the country for Independence wasn't there and so even if there was a referendum the likelihood would be that Yes would lose - which of course happened.

However, during the campaign, support for Indy grew over the course which translated into support at subsequent elections largely at the cost of Labour.

The other side of this coin was on the Unionist side, where there was a realisation that it had been a close shave and that "Unionist-SNP" support disappeared overnight - typically to the Tories.    In 2015 the unionists hadn't cottoned on - I think they were essentially drained after 2014, but by 2016 it had changed.

It's interesting that if he mentions the four SNP constituencies that the SNP lost - where there was no Green standing - and which had they won would've seen them retain their majority.   He doesn't mention this but they were all seats that the SNP won from the Lib Dems and this of course was following on from Lib Dem support going down the toilet across the UK as a result of them going into coalition in 2010.   So they probably weren't "safe" seats in the first place.   Fast forward to 2016 and you can see that there was massive tactical voting in these seats *against* the SNP.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, stirlish said:

latest survation poll.

SNP gone from 3 list MSP's to zero in South of Scotland.

but overall increase in constituency votes

 

FB_IMG_1619367040611.jpg

Some neeps on here dont want folk to vote alba at any costs even though the snp will never get the list seats in the northeast,, crazy,, i think this poll is way off BTW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, stirlish said:

 

SNP gone from 3 list MSP's to zero in South of Scotland.

 

That's because they've picked up three constituency seats.  I'd be surprised if they did that, tbf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Exclusive Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll suggests the supermajority is on: the SNP, Alba and the Greens are on course to win 62% of the seats in the new Scottish Parliament

Projected pro-indy majority of 31 seats (80:49). But the pro indy vote % is down on constituency from 51% to 49%.

Albs would gain 8 seats. But SNP seats would be stuck at 61 (down 2 from 2016).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, exile said:

Exclusive Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll suggests the supermajority is on: the SNP, Alba and the Greens are on course to win 62% of the seats in the new Scottish Parliament

Projected pro-indy majority of 31 seats (80:49). But the pro indy vote % is down on constituency from 51% to 49%.

Albs would gain 8 seats. But SNP seats would be stuck at 61 (down 2 from 2016).

I believe that poll is close, lots of time for change,,, snp will get slightly more than that though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, exile said:

A Guardian report from the NE campaign trail. The headline is a dig at Salmond but the article is mixed/inconclusive.

‘I don’t trust him’: little buzz for Salmond or election in Scotland’s north-east

Without doubt the unionist newspapers/media must send reporters on a hunt to find these anti-independence people and it insures a story on them in an attempt to bolster the sentiment outwith Scotland that the pro-union verve is stronger than it really is across Scotland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, exile said:

Exclusive Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll suggests the supermajority is on: the SNP, Alba and the Greens are on course to win 62% of the seats in the new Scottish Parliament

Projected pro-indy majority of 31 seats (80:49). But the pro indy vote % is down on constituency from 51% to 49%.

Albs would gain 8 seats. But SNP seats would be stuck at 61 (down 2 from 2016).

Before people get agitated, I think that is the third poll that Panelbase have done which has shown Alba on 6%.  So even if that's right, it shows their support static, not increasing as I suspect it will be being spun.  Also all the other polls have had them between 1 and 3%.  So either Panelbase is picking up something which no one else is or their methodology and/or samples are unrepresentative and favourable to Alba.

Also - and I haven't seen the data - a seat prediction of 8 off 6% is realistic *if* that is uniform across all regions, I suspect it won't be and, what will be more likely - if this poll is correct - would be winning more than enough votes in some regions to get one seat but not enough to get two but falling short in other regions.   

Anyway, we'll know for certain in 10 days or so.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, exile said:

A Guardian report from the NE campaign trail. The headline is a dig at Salmond but the article is mixed/inconclusive.

‘I don’t trust him’: little buzz for Salmond or election in Scotland’s north-east

Without a doubt a hatchet job on AS.

I used to regard the graunaid was one of the more respectable papers but not any more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Without doubt the unionist newspapers/media must send reporters on a hunt to find these anti-independence people and it insures a story on them in an attempt to bolster the sentiment outwith Scotland that the pro-union verve is stronger than it really is across Scotland.

Have you read the article - most of the people she speaks to are pro Indy.  If anything I suspect its an over-representation.

Libby Brooks is generally a pretty balanced reporter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, aaid said:

Have you read the article - most of the people she speaks to are pro Indy.  If anything I suspect its an over-representation.

Libby Brooks is generally a pretty balanced reporter.

Yes but look at the headline which is the main part of an article. It totally portrays the article in the wrong light - perhaps added by the editor? And I did read it yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, aaid said:

Have you read the article - most of the people she speaks to are pro Indy.  If anything I suspect its an over-representation.

Libby Brooks is generally a pretty balanced reporter.

Aye, pretty balanced. Who are you trying to kid?

"A Scottish government inquiry upheld a number of sexual harassment complaints against him but was declared unlawful because of procedural failings.)"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Yes but look at the headline which is the main part of an article. It totally portrays the article in the wrong light - perhaps added by the editor? And I did read it yesterday.

What's wrong with the headline exactly?  It's a straight lift from a quote and it pretty accurately reflects the piece.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...