scotlad Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 2 hours ago, weekevie04 said: Jim Fairlie seems a top dude! During his interview with the BBC he seemed delighted and genuinely proud to be representing the constituency. Good to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 BBC Forecasting final seats total for SNP of 63 - two short of a majority but with Greens predicted to get 9 msp's there would comfortably be a pro-indy majority. Already though the opposition digging their heels in and claiming the SNP don't have a mandate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 BBC predicts 63 SNP, 31 Tories 22 Labour, 9 Greens, 4 Libs. 72 pro independence seats would be a strong mandate. 4 Lib Dems mean they no longer have full party privileges 🤭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Can we get independence from Aberdeen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Obviously John Curtice knows more than me, but I’m still saying 64. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Just now, Squirrelhumper said: Can we get independence from Aberdeen? If it means Killie never need to play them again, all for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 6 hours ago, aaid said: In 2011, they "broke" the system due to a couple of things. They won less constituency seats (53) than in 2016 (59) and this year likely more. In 2011 though their list vote held up - just a 1.4% difference between that and the constituency compared to 4.8% in 2016 and this year likely less. Basically while d'Hondt gives a reasonable level of proportionality it isn't exact, there will be "rounding errors" and regional swings that will mean that a party might pick up more list seats than their national share of the vote would suggest and similarly they could pick up less. The more constituency seats you pick up, the harder it is to get list seats, the other side to that is that the fewer constituency seats you have, the more list seats will be "in play for you". In 2011 they SNP benefited from that and picked up slightly more list seats and in 2016 they picked up slightly less. However, if you were able to put together a strategy that could to deliver that exact sweet spot then you wouldn't be working in politics. While it's very difficult, maxing out the constituencies is a much more straightforwards strategy. A complicated business but if SNP were to have leaked more constituency seats and had full ‘Both Voted SNP’ support of 47%-plus then that might have broke the system again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said: Can we get independence from Aberdeen? Aberdeen is SNP so what are you on about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 3 hours ago, biffer said: If anyone thinks Salmond is hanging around to lead Alba when he hasn’t got a seat in Parliament, I’ve got a bridge I can sell you. he is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hertsscot Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Somebody should ask Ross about d''hondt, does his party a massive favour in Scotland but applied to whole of UK would probably mean his bosses wouldn't be in power. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 2 hours ago, weekevie04 said: Jim Fairlie seems a top dude! really chuffed for him,, really good guy although squirrel humper doesn't think so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hampden_loon2878 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 3 hours ago, Freeedom said: Jim Fairlie senior is my Grandad and wee Jim is my uncle well done to him,, good guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 A general observation. Why do the majority of Tory candidates/pundits speak with an English accent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redz Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said: Can we get independence from Aberdeen? Aye, it's frustrating in the shire. That said you'll be aware of the demographics and non Scots 6 minutes ago, Lamia said: Aberdeen is SNP so what are you on about? Banchory IS Abz when you come from Kilmarnock 🙄😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanderark14 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 25 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said: Can we get independence from Aberdeen? Why? It's gone to snp. Aberdeenshire West went Tory Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 28 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said: Can we get independence from Aberdeen? Can we get independence from the Borders? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncan II Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Redz said: Banchory IS Abz when you come from Kilmarnock 🙄😂 Works both ways. I remember walking away from Rugby Park after the Aberdeen cup tie a couple seasons ago and some Aberdeen jaikies proclaiming “get it right up you weegie bastards” Hmm. 🤔 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Good on the Greens relegating those arsewipes that are the Fib Dums into 5th place 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncan II Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said: Good on the Greens relegating those arsewipes that are the Fib Dums into 5th place 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Guarantee BBC panels will still feature them, probably at expense of any Greens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Disappointing that the Highlands & Islands list vote can’t stay really high with Both Votes SNP. Given that Orkney and Shetland were 2 seats that were always likely to be lost then it seems like a missed opportunity. Ironic that for all the talk of supermajority and/or lending votes to Alba/Greens, the SNP may well have been in a position to get a majority if they got those list votes in that region and possibly in South Scotland as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 43 minutes ago, kumnio said: Obviously John Curtice knows more than me, but I’m still saying 64. That sounds about right to me too. There are still two constituencies left to declare, which are both in Edinburgh but which both had fairly comfortable SNP majorities. I've heard no rumours of an upset in either of those places, plus I'd have thought the SNP would pick up a list seat each in the H&I and the southern regions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 Can anyone work out if the 2% Alba got in Highlands if it went SNP or Green would they have gained another list seat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morrisandmoo Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, duncan II said: Works both ways. I remember walking away from Rugby Park after the Aberdeen cup tie a couple seasons ago and some Aberdeen jaikies proclaiming “get it right up you weegie bastards” Hmm. 🤔 Stay on topic please. A horrible end to a night, best left un-remembered. Entertaining game right enough and another one ending in Killie going out on penalties - if it's the same one I am thinking of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, iainmac1 said: Can anyone work out if the 2% Alba got in Highlands if it went SNP or Green would they have gained another list seat You need Aaid to get his Excel spreadsheet on the go for this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exile Posted May 8, 2021 Share Posted May 8, 2021 (edited) Looks as if Greens could have nicked a list seat from Labour in Central Scotland And Green and SNP have each picked up a list seat in H&I So SNP on 60, Green 2, 3 needed for pro-indy majority Edited May 8, 2021 by exile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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