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Holyrood Elections 2021


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As "Alba curious" I did lend them my list vote, but Mrs Grim almost spat the name back at me.   Wouldn't touch Salmond's party with a bargepole (despite me previously mansplaining his defence case most eloquently).

She never did like him at all though.   Me, I go back to the 79-group and wore the angry boy band badge 😄

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46 minutes ago, duncan II said:

Of course it is! Your generalisation is misinforming people.

Anyway, the independence movement has the potential to rip itself apart. I’ll be back when NS gets the ball rolling. I’m genuinely fucked off with the way some are portraying those who put a tick in a box for something they believed in. The arseholes who keep going on about Salmond vanity projects are doing themselves no favours. It’s actually rather insulting to those who believe in what they stand for, as if we were taken in. Once the spirit of ‘14 is back, so will I.

No it isn't the motivation of Alba supporters generally is GRA. They never stop banging on about it and why they won't vote Green

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Just now, Grim Jim said:

Aye, i was half joking, but its the impression you get when more extreme views are given the most air.

I knew you were being a bit flippant. So had to acknowledge it as i keep getting folk pulling me up for "not taking the joke" when i'm just being really dry humour myself.

On a serious note i've been listening to loads of podcasts the last year to do with social media, engagement and artificial intelligence with folk like Stuart Russell (literally wrote the text book on AI) and other prominent academics.

A few of the key points are:

Social media(facebook, youtube etc) used AI to increase level of engagement (make you spend more time on their product) to maximise advertiser revenue.

AI are immense pattern recognisers even better than humans, however the problem is they can't explain why they recognise the pattern to us they just can.

To increase engagement AI found that outrage causes the most engagement due to our inherent nature. Therefore it slowly radicalises you by showing you more and more outrageous things and leads people down the path to more extreme views.

This is why the more extreme views are given the most air cause they cause the most engagement and therefore the most lucrative material to show.

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9 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

As "Alba curious" I did lend them my list vote, but Mrs Grim almost spat the name back at me.   Wouldn't touch Salmond's party with a bargepole (despite me previously mansplaining his defence case most eloquently).

She never did like him at all though.   Me, I go back to the 79-group and wore the angry boy band badge 😄

Similar with my mrs when I said I was going Alba on the list. Good debate with a lady at work who, like me, has always been every vote SNP. She was still going SNP but conceded that if Indyref2 isn't delivered this time, then she would thinking how to use her list vote differently.

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I guess the massive amount of tactical voting going on explains why there were such a big swing in the opinion polls and seat swings.   Which constituencies your sample was based in had a much bigger impact on the national share than it would normally do.  

Going to be a nightmare for people trying to do seat projections in the future.

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37 minutes ago, aaid said:

The way I describe it is not all people who voted Leave were racists but all the racists voted leave.

It's not that simple for me

A sense of entitlement, and taking back control, absolutely fuelled the underlying let's get shot of Johnny Foreigner brigade

In short, these types didn't actually realise they were racist at the beginning, however voted like one at the end

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3 hours ago, duncan II said:

Sorry, not having being called mad. I voted the way I believe. There can’t be regret in that.

 

Fair enough, but you did say your number 1 priority was a pro-indy majority. I'm pretty sure you'd regret voting Alba if the SNP lose list seats in South Scotland, and Holyrood loses its pro-indy majority as a result.

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The one thing all this tactical voting shows is that they are shitting themselves. To go to such lengths to avoid an SNP majority would seem they know another referendum is inevitable. Really need the Greens to perform well as I doubt the SNP will get the same level of support in 4 years without a referendum or at least some semblance of a plan for one. 

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2 hours ago, aaid said:

I'd take issue with the statement about the English working class being a predominantly racist country as that's not my experience and clearly England is a much more multicultural country than Scotland is for example.   That's not to say there isn't racism, there is, but to paint a broad brush like that doesn't reflect reality.

However there is a pretty complicated thing which goes on around nationality and patriotism in England which I'm not sure I've ever 100% gotten my head around - and believe me, I've tried - and it's pretty accurate to say that the Tories are ruthlessly and cynically tapping into that part of the English psyche and in part that explains why they are doing well in places like Hartlepool.

Some parts of England are, but swathes of it are largely monocultural. It's not all like London.

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16 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Looking at that Aberdeenshire East result there looks to be no chance in Aberdeenshire West for the SNP. Lib Dem votes likely to shift to the Tories 

Aye, it looks highly unlikely, going by the voting patterns in the north east so far.

1 hour ago, Jim Beem said:

The Alba squad having a bit of a meltdown on twitter. Embarrassing toys out the pram stuff

I wonder how the eejits who were boasting about spoiling their constituency ballots must feel now? It looks like their vote has gone nowhere!

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4 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

The one thing all this tactical voting shows is that they are shitting themselves. To go to such lengths to avoid an SNP majority would seem they know another referendum is inevitable. Really need the Greens to perform well as I doubt the SNP will get the same level of support in 4 years without a referendum or at least some semblance of a plan for one. 

For sure.

The quest for IndyRef2 won't cease just because yoons hope and pray it will. I'd say where tactical voting has been in play is where your pro-union support it. There were other seats where SNP rode through the middle of a split unionist vote which I'd say were in areas perhaps more supportive of independence. 

I have heard the tosh being spoken again (this time from John Curtice) that everyone voting SNP supports SNP and everyone voting Labour, Conservative or Lib Dems support the union. That is lazy and presumptuous assumption. Already I have seen one report rubbishing that on the BBC website speaking to a young woman who supports independence but voted Labour.

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11 hours ago, bonzo said:

Can I ask, how is this the last chance?

Because the SNP have been given several mandates to push for independence and they haven't done anything. Parties like Alba are going to be much more organised at the next election if the SNP haven't achieved what they've been elected to do and people will vote for that alternative.

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5 minutes ago, Freeedom said:

Because the SNP have been given several mandates to push for independence and they haven't done anything. Parties like Alba are going to be much more organised at the next election if the SNP haven't achieved what they've been elected to do and people will vote for that alternative.

I can see where you are coming from but with all due respects Alba may not even exist come the next election. Early signs are that Alba have flopped. Now, if you say, the SNP do not make strides to hold another referendum in the next five years at least taking it to court then it may give a boost to Alba as, I have no doubt, the disenchantment in the SNP will potentially start to grow.

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Not really too impressed with the English are racist comments either. People are simply a product of their environments and if the circumstances in Scottish society were the same as they are in certain parts of England you would see exactly the same response here. We aren't any better than they are, they're just people living out their lives and expressing views about what they see around them.

I spent a couple of years living in England and generally people are nice but they have had to endure the absolutely crippling effects of austerity to a much worse degree than we have. I can absolutely understand why the people down there voted to stop mass immigration having spent time in a London hospital. It was like being in a third world country, unbelievably overcrowded with people in terrible shape sitting in the waiting rooms.

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I think COVID has been a godsend for Brexit. It has grossly masked the disaster that it will be and people are presuming that its not been so bad because its been swept aside in the news. No doubt some of the voting in Scotland does have an underlying Brexit trend where pockets of Brexiteers exist. They have been more likely to rally to protect their beloved Brexit. That being an extra motivation for those sorts to vote. If this election had happened two years down the line say once Brexit has really bitten I think the results would be even more pro-SNP.

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6 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I can see where you are coming from but with all due respects Alba may not even exist come the next election. Early signs are that Alba have flopped. Now, if you say, the SNP do not make strides to hold another referendum in the next five years at least taking it to court then it may give a boost to Alba as, I have no doubt, the disenchantment in the SNP will potentially start to grow.

That's what I'm saying. Five years from now if the SNP haven't delivered you can bet there will be an alternative to them ready and waiting. For anyone whose number one policy is independence, they'll switch

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3 minutes ago, Freeedom said:

That's what I'm saying. Five years from now if the SNP haven't delivered you can bet there will be an alternative to them ready and waiting. For anyone whose number one policy is independence, they'll switch

I don't disagree but I am also confident that the SNP will take the constituency issue to court - as they will have to, once the pandemic has subsided. Do it tomorrow (as Salmond demanded) is blowing off your foot with a sawn-off shotgun.

 

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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8 minutes ago, phart said:

Looking at early list votes, seems Alba and Green doing worse than polling suggested.

Hmm, cant say I am surprised at that from the sampling I did yesterday in the count in my constituency . I was hoping other areas might pull it up, there are places where the Greens are very popular. 

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