Holyrood Elections 2021

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

What is the perfect storm required for SNP to actually get a majority? 
 

1) winning 65 constituency seats straight out. 
 

2) possibly actually dropping a decent number of constituency seats and having a list % around 50% ?? 

In 2011, they "broke" the system due to a couple of things.  They won less constituency seats (53) than in 2016 (59) and this year likely more.   In 2011 though their list vote held up - just a 1.4% difference between that and the constituency compared to 4.8% in 2016 and this year likely less.

Basically while d'Hondt gives a reasonable level of proportionality it isn't exact, there will be "rounding errors" and regional swings that will mean that a party might pick up more list seats than their national share of the vote would suggest and similarly they could pick up less.

The more constituency seats you pick up, the harder it is to get list seats, the other side to that is that the fewer constituency seats you have, the more list seats will be "in play for you".

In 2011 they SNP benefited from that and picked up slightly more list seats and in 2016 they picked up slightly less.

However, if you were able to put together a strategy that could to deliver that exact sweet spot then you wouldn't be working in politics.

While it's very difficult, maxing out the constituencies is a much more straightforwards strategy.

[Caledonian Craig]

The unionist hypocrisy really holds no bounds does it? In the lead up to the election we heard Douglas Ross gurn, beef and greet about tactical voting amongst independence parties. Watching the results coming in yesterday it was clear that the tactical voting was universally uniquely a unionist trait. No qualms at all about that though.

[duncan II]

9 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Of course it is a generalisation as I don't know everyones views but it isn't misinformation.

Of course it is! Your generalisation is misinforming people.

Anyway, the independence movement has the potential to rip itself apart. I’ll be back when NS gets the ball rolling. I’m genuinely fucked off with the way some are portraying those who put a tick in a box for something they believed in. The arseholes who keep going on about Salmond vanity projects are doing themselves no favours. It’s actually rather insulting to those who believe in what they stand for, as if we were taken in. Once the spirit of ‘14 is back, so will I.

[vanderark14]

8 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

The unionist hypocrisy really holds no bounds does it? In the lead up to the election we heard Douglas Ross gurn, beef and greet about tactical voting amongst independence parties. Watching the results coming in yesterday it was clear that the tactical voting was universally uniquely a unionist trait. No qualms at all about that though.

They're in full swing today

"Now is not the time for a divisive referendum"

"It would be irresponsible to have a Scottish independence referendum now"

[Caledonian Craig]

3 minutes ago, duncan II said:

Of course it is! Your generalisation is misinforming people.

Anyway, the independence movement has the potential to rip itself apart. I’ll be back when NS gets the ball rolling. I’m genuinely fucked off with the way some are portraying those who put a tick in a box for something they believed in. The arseholes who keep going on about Salmond vanity projects are doing themselves no favours. It’s actually rather insulting to those who believe in what they stand for, as if we were taken in. Once the spirit of ‘14 is back, so will I.

I had no problems with Salmond forming a party but the timing was all wrong. We all knew an election was coming up so why not introduce it last Autumn for example. It was plain daft to start it up two months prior to an election. That was part of the reason it hasn't got the votes it has. His background is another reason his party has not got the votes. You cannot fit a square peg into a round hole.

[wheres the pies]

40 minutes ago, aaid said:

I'd take issue with the statement about the English working class being a predominantly racist country as that's not my experience and clearly England is a much more multicultural country than Scotland is for example.   That's not to say there isn't racism, there is, but to paint a broad brush like that doesn't reflect reality.

However there is a pretty complicated thing which goes on around nationality and patriotism in England which I'm not sure I've ever 100% gotten my head around - and believe me, I've tried - and it's pretty accurate to say that the Tories are ruthlessly and cynically tapping into that part of the English psyche and in part that explains why they are doing well in places like Hartlepool.

Having lived down here for 26 years I’ve seen at first hand how English behave towards foreigners myself included I’m sure your self have been made to feel unwelcome at times of course not all English are racist however I’ve worked with many over the years and was not a pleasant time working with these folks but as Ken Clarke has said the Torys are now the English national party and as you have alluded to the Torys are tapping into that demographic 

[ParisInAKilt]

1 minute ago, vanderark14 said:

They're in full swing today

"Now is not the time for a divisive referendum"

"It would be irresponsible to have a Scottish independence referendum now"

Sounds like Sturgeon quotes

[Redz]

3 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

Having lived down here for 26 years I’ve seen at first hand how English behave towards foreigners myself included I’m sure your self have been made to feel unwelcome at times of course not all English are racist however I’ve worked with many over the years and was not a pleasant time working with these folks but as Ken Clarke has said the Torys are now the English national party and as you have alluded to the Torys are tapping into that demographic 

Norfolk has more than its fair share of vile entitled racists - That said, its not across the board

However, England predominately voted Leave on the racist ticket - That in itself is telling

[Caledonian Craig]

8 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

Having lived down here for 26 years I’ve seen at first hand how English behave towards foreigners myself included I’m sure your self have been made to feel unwelcome at times of course not all English are racist however I’ve worked with many over the years and was not a pleasant time working with these folks but as Ken Clarke has said the Torys are now the English national party and as you have alluded to the Torys are tapping into that demographic 

I have lived in England for periods of time and it has progressively become clear to me what is happening. Politically, the fiercely English voice is being heard above all else. For sure there are many sensible people and not racist at all but the people in power are the nasty face of England.

[vanderark14]

9 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Sounds like Sturgeon quotes

I'll take your word for it 

[Jim Beem]

The Alba squad having a bit of a meltdown on twitter. Embarrassing toys out the pram stuff

[aaid]

1 minute ago, wheres the pies said:

Having lived down here for 26 years I’ve seen at first hand how English behave towards foreigners myself included I’m sure your self have been made to feel unwelcome at times of course not all English are racist however I’ve worked with many over the years and was not a pleasant time working with these folks but as Ken Clarke has said the Torys are now the English national party and as you have alluded to the Torys are tapping into that demographic 

There's racists everywhere, some of the worst racist abuse I'd heard at football was directed towards Paul Ince and Sol Campbell and was at Hampden at the play-off game in 1999.   I've personally not been made to feel unwelcome anywhere in England but then I don't tend to act like a dick - not saying you are, BTW.

As I said before, there's a lot of stuff going in in that national psyche, I don't think its fair to fundamentally describe it as based in racism though.

[aaid]

12 minutes ago, Redz said:

 

However, England predominately voted Leave on the racist ticket - That in itself is telling

The way I describe it is not all people who voted Leave were racists but all the racists voted leave.

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, Jim Beem said:

The Alba squad having a bit of a meltdown on twitter. Embarrassing toys out the pram stuff

Are they trying to get "nemesis" trending?

[phart]

Well the problem is racism is such a loaded term...

We have unconscious biases like affinity bias. A trait selected for over tens of thousands of years etc.

Teaching and explaining these cognitive biases would go a long way to ameliorate their affect.

[Grim Jim]

Labour's drop off in England to me looks like while the Blairites deserted them during Corbyn, the latter's supporters have now done the same.

[TDYER63]

11 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

 

I'd have no problem him making a comeback attempt but this seemed ill-timed and ill thought out - almost like an after-thought hence the lack of time to drill his message home.

After weeks of deliberation I ended up voting SNP 1, Greens 2 for this very reason. I was not confident he would have enough support but the whole situation did focus my mind on the voting structure more than in previous years. I felt something had to change, we never get any list MSP’s where I live and so decided last minute to go Green on my second vote. 
If it doesn’t pay off I have no regrets. I did what I did for the right reasons.

As far as AS is concerned I do believe he is now finished, but I stick with my opinion that Scottish politics is poorer without him. On this board there seems to be a general inclination to support Sturgeon or Salmond, but it is possible to see the benefits both politicians bring . Given his bad approval rating it would probably be more advantageous for him to be pulling strings in the background, but it is probably a bit naive to think he would be happy in that role.  

 

[Grim Jim]

1 minute ago, phart said:

Well the problem is racism is such a loaded term...

We have unconscious biases like affinity bias. A trait selected for over tens of thousands of years etc.

Teaching and explaining these cognitive biases would go a long way to ameliorate their affect.

How about compromising on xenophobic?

[phart]

 

Typed nemesis into twitter first exchange that came up. Some folk need to take a step back.

[phart]

1 minute ago, Grim Jim said:

How about compromising on xenophobic?

Throwing a few syllables to explain complex social interactions as opposed to discussing and explaining the phenomenom isn't the best way to go about it.

But for the sake of brevity let's compromise

[phart]

 

[Caledonian Craig]

SNP Hold ABD East.

 

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, phart said:

Well the problem is racism is such a loaded term...

We have unconscious biases like affinity bias. A trait selected for over tens of thousands of years etc.

Teaching and explaining these cognitive biases would go a long way to ameliorate their affect.

The first line nails it.

I think general cultural awareness goes a long way as well and trying to think about how your words and actions could be construed negatively in a way that wasn't intended.

[Grim Jim]

1 minute ago, phart said:

Throwing a few syllables to explain complex social interactions as opposed to discussing and explaining the phenomenom isn't the best way to go about it.

But for the sake of brevity let's compromise

Aye, i was half joking, but its the impression you get when more extreme views are given the most air.

[exile]

Putting race or ethnicity to the side I think there is a definite difference in perceiving the world as a big country as opposed to being a small country. The big country mentality is more often seen in England and British-identifying Scots, so Scots do have it too when they see the world through a British lens. It tends to see France and 'Europe' as rivals, is happy to rattle sabres and contemplate chucking gunboats at a problem. For better or worse it is more likely to intervene in faraway places. And it sees Brexit as a flexing of national muscle (Britain too big to be equal partners with Europeans, wants to be seen as equal to the whole of the EU), attempting to be global and world beating, etc. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by exile