Holyrood Elections 2021

[vanderark14]

15 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

And the headline in The Times today reads 'PM views decades in power'. Is that really what decent folk in Scotland want? Labour need to realise they could be a force in an independent Scotland and stop supporting the union. Some SNP politicians need to stop demonizing other independence supporters, Salmond needs to call it quits. Lib Dems, what exactly is the point of anyone ever voting for them?

I'm still astonished at the support for boris down here. It can't just be because labour are that bad, surely?

 

[ParisInAKilt]

9 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

There are a few reasons Alba did not work out. And the only way it will work is if Salmond steps down.

I do agree there are merits in a secondary Indy party who stands on the list votes and spends time getting the message across over many months even years not like Alba with two months notice.

Agreed, although hopefully we’ll be independent by the next election 🤞🏼 

[Caledonian Craig]

3 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

I'm still astonished at the support for boris down here. It can't just be because labour are that bad, surely?

 

It is several reasons.

Getting Brexit done which your little Englanders wanted, getting the vaccine roll-out done (massively covering up their grossly incompetent handling of the pandemic), Labour being so useless and rudderless and the Tories now being the English National Party in all but name.

[aaid]

11 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

I'm still astonished at the support for boris down here. It can't just be because labour are that bad, surely?

 

Given that you live reasonably close to me, I'm surprised that you are still astonished.  The political centre in England is in a very different place from where it is in Scotland and if it hasn't always been that way, it has for decades.

I moved down in 1988 and had the difference thrown right in my face within months.   I had to move to get work, those who remember the 1980s will remember how grim it was in Scotland and moved to a very prosperous part of England which was pretty much booming.  It really was night and day - I think these days its less pronounced but anyway.

There was a general North-South divide but what showed me the difference politically was the Poll Tax or rather the reactions to it.

Obviously the Poll Tax was trialed out in Scotland - I think I left just before it was implemented but was there when all the opposition was building to it.   In Scotland there was obviously massive opposition but in the main that was all centred around the tax in itself being unfair, regressive and anti-democratic.  Essentially the objections were all politically, philosophically and based on principle.

Six months or so after I moved down they started talking about introducing the poll tax in England and there was serious opposition to that - hell there was even a riot in Trafalgar Square - but to me what was telling was that - in the main - the opposition was all predicated on the fact that people would have to pay more than under the old rates system.

I've never forgotten that and while I've come to realise that things are more nuanced and less stark than that, I've never changed my view that Scotland and England are politically - and in every other way - different countries.

[Caledonian Craig]

I think today is pretty cut and dried with how things will go. The SNP will fall two or three seats short of a majority but the pro-Independent Greens support they'll have that indy majority. However, Coco the Clown in Westminster will totally ignore the Greens support and say no majority and false puke like unionists have spoken blah blah blah. Once the pandemic is out of the way then the ball lands in Nicola Sturgeon's court.

[wheres the pies]

Taken from Twitter don’t really disagree if I’m honest 

England is a predominantly a racist country among the working class the tories are the new bnp led by a leader who as stated racist comments ain’t a mystery you only look when a Tory politician is getting interviewed and the Union Jack is in the background or a union lapel badge being worn straight out the trump play book 

[aaid]

People should first and foremost vote for the party and/or candidate which best reflects their views and priorities and who can best represent them.

If people vote for a party - any party - on that basis then fair play, that's democracy.

All this talk of there being a place for another pro-Indy party is frankly mince, at least as far as maximising the number of pro-Indy seats in the parliament.

If the entire electoral system was FPTP then we wouldn't even be having this discussion as it would be clear as mud that a single dominant party, i.e. the SNP, is the way to maximise those seats.

If the electoral system was entirely proportional and was based on STV, then - as long as those parties could poll > 5% - then having a group of pro-Indy parties which could represent the full range of other opinions amongst them but could act as a pro-Indy block when required would not be a problem and in fact would probably be no bad thing for democracy in general.

However we don't have that system, we have the hybrid AMS system - which is designed to stop a party give an overall majority and which in the list part favours larger parties.

As far as maximising seats then the current situation, with the SNP and ANO smaller "list" party is the sweet spot as that allows the SNP to dominate in the constituencies with the smaller party being able to pick up seats on the list in the cases where d'Hondt doesn't favour the SNP.   

That smaller "List" party is of course the Scottish Greens and while people may not like that, that's how it is unless another party can oust them and I don't see that happening given that they have a strong appeal to a small but electorally significant part of the electorate.

Two's company, three's a crowd is very much the case here.

 

[aaid]

17 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I think today is pretty cut and dried with how things will go. The SNP will fall two or three seats short of a majority but the pro-Independent Greens support they'll have that indy majority. However, Coco the Clown in Westminster will totally ignore the Greens support and say no majority and false puke like unionists have spoken blah blah blah. Once the pandemic is out of the way then the ball lands in Nicola Sturgeon's court.

Actually the ball lands in the Supreme Court.

[hampden_loon2878]

55 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

In hindsight it seems naive of Alba to expect enough Indy voters with so little time to campaign, inform (some) voters how the list works and Salmond’s trial. 

I think there is a need for another Indy party though so be interesting to see if they stick around for the next election. 

yes they will as if indy is not delivered or at least a referendum,, the folk jumping from the snp will be massive, i think my membership will be cancelled on monday, i might have settled down by then,, see fit like

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

Taken from Twitter don’t really disagree if I’m honest 

England is a predominantly a racist country among the working class the tories are the new bnp led by a leader who as stated racist comments ain’t a mystery you only look when a Tory politician is getting interviewed and the Union Jack is in the background or a union lapel badge being worn straight out the trump play book 

I'd take issue with the statement about the English working class being a predominantly racist country as that's not my experience and clearly England is a much more multicultural country than Scotland is for example.   That's not to say there isn't racism, there is, but to paint a broad brush like that doesn't reflect reality.

However there is a pretty complicated thing which goes on around nationality and patriotism in England which I'm not sure I've ever 100% gotten my head around - and believe me, I've tried - and it's pretty accurate to say that the Tories are ruthlessly and cynically tapping into that part of the English psyche and in part that explains why they are doing well in places like Hartlepool.

[phart]

14 minutes ago, aaid said:

People should first and foremost vote for the party and/or candidate which best reflects their views and priorities and who can best represent them.

If people vote for a party - any party - on that basis then fair play, that's democracy.



 

Mandela said it best in that regard

"May your choices reflect your hopes not your fears"

[ParisInAKilt]

21 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

Taken from Twitter don’t really disagree if I’m honest 

England is a predominantly a racist country among the working class the tories are the new bnp led by a leader who as stated racist comments ain’t a mystery you only look when a Tory politician is getting interviewed and the Union Jack is in the background or a union lapel badge being worn straight out the trump play book 

Hahaha no it’s not 

[Lamia]

9 hours ago, tartandon said:

Once you are tainted by sexual misconduct it is game over. You just have to look at Noel Clarke. There are lots of allegations of inappropriate and unsavoury behaviour, none of which may be deemed illegal. But, like Barrymore and Leslie, his showbiz career is now over.

Salmond should have been smart enough to realise that he was similarly tainted and that a return to front-line politics was not likely to gain enough voter support. The failed Alba foray was only ever likely to take votes away from other pro-independence parties.

If Salmond was truly trying to maximise the number of pro-indepence votes, he could have encouraged his supporters to vote Green on the regional list as a tactic to maximise the number of seats for established pro-independence parties. Hubris saw him launch a new party believing he could gain seats and seal a return to front-line politics.

If all the registered Alba votes had actually been cast for the Green Party, I wonder if the Greens would actual have managed to win any more lists seats.  Maybe somebody more informed on how the list seat allocations are calculated will be able to run the numbers once we know the actual results.

That wouldn't have worked because Alba supporters are more concerned by the trans issue.

[vanderark14]

43 minutes ago, aaid said:

Given that you live reasonably close to me, I'm surprised that you are still astonished.  The political centre in England is in a very different place from where it is in Scotland and if it hasn't always been that way, it has for decades.

I moved down in 1988 and had the difference thrown right in my face within months.   I had to move to get work, those who remember the 1980s will remember how grim it was in Scotland and moved to a very prosperous part of England which was pretty much booming.  It really was night and day - I think these days its less pronounced but anyway.

There was a general North-South divide but what showed me the difference politically was the Poll Tax or rather the reactions to it.

Obviously the Poll Tax was trialed out in Scotland - I think I left just before it was implemented but was there when all the opposition was building to it.   In Scotland there was obviously massive opposition but in the main that was all centred around the tax in itself being unfair, regressive and anti-democratic.  Essentially the objections were all politically, philosophically and based on principle.

Six months or so after I moved down they started talking about introducing the poll tax in England and there was serious opposition to that - hell there was even a riot in Trafalgar Square - but to me what was telling was that - in the main - the opposition was all predicated on the fact that people would have to pay more than under the old rates system.

I've never forgotten that and while I've come to realise that things are more nuanced and less stark than that, I've never changed my view that Scotland and England are politically - and in every other way - different countries.

I'm fully aware of why Scotland and England are different. What I don't understand is the constant voting of tory around here when they continue to make extreme howlers.

[duncan II]

3 minutes ago, Lamia said:

That wouldn't have worked because Alba supporters are more concerned by the trans issue.

Misinformed generalisation.

[AlfieMoon]

What is the perfect storm required for SNP to actually get a majority? 
 

1) winning 65 constituency seats straight out. 
 

2) possibly actually dropping a decent number of constituency seats and having a list % around 50% ?? 

[iainmac1]

 Wad a bit surprised when I heard the SNP got more list votes in Shetland than the Lib Dems. But this explains it. Lots of Tory and Labour voters voted Lib Dem 1st vote then switched back to thier party for 2nd vote. Tactical voting won the Lib Dems that seat.

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

I'm fully aware of why Scotland and England are different. What I don't understand is the constant voting of tory around here when they continue to make extreme howlers.

Maybe you can explain the "why" to me, I know that they are different, what's not clear to me is why.

[Lamia]

5 minutes ago, duncan II said:

Misinformed generalisation.

Of course it is a generalisation as I don't know everyones views but it isn't misinformation.

[Redz]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

Maybe you can explain the "why" to me, I know that they are different, what's not clear to me is why.

Entitlement?

[vanderark14]

3 minutes ago, aaid said:

Maybe you can explain the "why" to me, I know that they are different, what's not clear to me is why.

I said I was astonished at why people down here were so supportive of the tories. That's got nothing to do with the differences between scotland and england

Caledonian answered the question I had already, you came in with the usual condescending tone and wrote another novel length post.

[Caledonian Craig]

39 minutes ago, aaid said:

Actually the ball lands in the Supreme Court.

Well no actually - that comes later. As it will be up to NS to show her desire for independence to push it through Holyrood THEN the ball lands in the Supreme Court.

[Redz]

8 minutes ago, iainmac1 said:

 Wad a bit surprised when I heard the SNP got more list votes in Shetland than the Lib Dems. But this explains it. Lots of Tory and Labour voters voted Lib Dem 1st vote then switched back to thier party for 2nd vote. Tactical voting won the Lib Dems that seat.

Agreed

Sadly there were similar levels of gaming elsewhere too

Fingers crossed for the magical 65 by the end of today 

[Redz]

14 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

What is the perfect storm required for SNP to actually get a majority? 
 

1) winning 65 constituency seats straight out. 
 

2) possibly actually dropping a decent number of constituency seats and having a list % around 50% ?? 

No1 please 👍

[exile]

Seems to me there is a spectrum of Alba voters from Alba-curious SNP supporters willing to give Alba a go on the list, and people who are actually SNP members, people who fervently want SNP to do well on constituency and Alba on list, equally; and those who seem to be anti-SNP, anti-Sturgeon, can't wait for SNP to crash, who feel the result is as bad as 2014, who think anyone who voted SNP2 are unionist-enablers, and those who put non-independence issues ahead of independence. So it's not easy to generalise.