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26 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Anyone watch the debate tonight? How did it go? 

I liked the format with the leaders taking turns to question each other.

There was still quite a bit of talking over each other, but it was certainly better than the BBC debate.

Douglas Ross performed really poorly yet again. Anas Sarwar performed quite well again. All the opposition parties implicitly accepted the inevitability of the SNP being the biggest party, with each of them talking about how they would hold the SNP to account.

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49 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

“IF” there was any dirt to bring to light, during a indy ref campaign would be most effective as if we lose another one its over however i think they would shit themselves and do it before the mays election if it looked like it was going to be a land slide 

The problem with that theory is that the people spreading these rumours about aren't unionists but supposed independence supporters.   Don't you think that its coincidental that salacious rumours about her private life have started to circulate at exactly the same time as all the rumours about the Salmond stich up did and are being spread by the same people.

I'm prepared to bet that you've heard rumours about her personal life and also how the Salmond stitch up from the same people - if not the same individuals but from the same sort of people.   

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24 minutes ago, tartandon said:

I liked the format with the leaders taking turns to question each other.

There was still quite a bit of talking over each other, but it was certainly better than the BBC debate.

Douglas Ross performed really poorly yet again. Anas Sarwar performed quite well again. All the opposition parties implicitly accepted the inevitability of the SNP being the biggest party, with each of them talking about how they would hold the SNP to account.

Pretty much this. The 'debate' format kept things lively because you can't always guess what points one party would choose to attack another on. Also fairer, because it's less biased by the chair pressing panelists as its the other panelists doing the pressing; and handpicked audience questions.

I thought Patrick Harvie had some good hits on Ross and Rennie. Sarwar pretty much bossed Ross and looked more poised like the better leader of the opposition. Ross seemed a bit like a schoolboy debater, one-dimensional with prepared attack lines but faltered under engagement from others or brushed aside (asked Sarwar, are we coming out of lockdown too slowly, Sarwar said no! making Ross look foolish). Ross is more suited to doing a straight piece to camera, uninterrupted except prompted by a fawning BBC presenter. He didn't seem to have any charisma that would appeal to a non Tory, whereas Sawar you could imagine picking up neutrals, though he did try to politicise someone's death at SNP's door which could be offputting to some.

Edited by exile
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Patrick Harvey totally rinsed both Ross & Rennie last night and showed NS the way to go. She needs to get on the front foot for a change, it's not like there isn't masses of material to throw at the Tories. Sarwar came across well again but his cuddly approach will only get him so far. 

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10 hours ago, aaid said:

The problem with that theory is that the people spreading these rumours about aren't unionists but supposed independence supporters.   Don't you think that its coincidental that salacious rumours about her private life have started to circulate at exactly the same time as all the rumours about the Salmond stich up did and are being spread by the same people.

I'm prepared to bet that you've heard rumours about her personal life and also how the Salmond stitch up from the same people - if not the same individuals but from the same sort of people.   

Theres one source,a long term SNP donor, which made me stand up and take notice,obviously hes heard it through other sources, its peter thats the main worry to me, if the rumours that i have heard about nicola came to light, it would not be unexpected. The rumours with peter would be very,very damaging,, it could be nonsense however what has went down in the salmond trial has massively rocked my faith in the leadership of the party.

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From @BallotBoxScot

New Scottish Parliament poll, Panelbase 9 - 12 Apr (changes vs 30 Mar - 1 Apr):

 

Greens have doubled on constituency vote:

Image

Image

A4U have halved on list. Alba, same. Green up, SNP down.

 

 

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Seat projections

Projecting Panelbase 9 - 12 Apr into seats (changes vs 30 Mar - 1 Apr / vs 2016):

SNP ~ 63 (-3 / nc)

Conservative ~ 26 (+1 / -5)

Labour ~ 19 (nc / -5)

Green ~ 10 (+1 / +4)

Alba ~ 6 (+1 / +6)

Lib Dem ~ 5 (+1 / nc)

 

That gives SNP stalled with no majority (SNP 63, others 66)

But pro indy majority of +29 (Indy 79. Unionist 50)

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29 minutes ago, exile said:

Seat projections

Projecting Panelbase 9 - 12 Apr into seats (changes vs 30 Mar - 1 Apr / vs 2016):

SNP ~ 63 (-3 / nc)

Conservative ~ 26 (+1 / -5)

Labour ~ 19 (nc / -5)

Green ~ 10 (+1 / +4)

Alba ~ 6 (+1 / +6)

Lib Dem ~ 5 (+1 / nc)

 

That gives SNP stalled with no majority (SNP 63, others 66)

But pro indy majority of +29 (Indy 79. Unionist 50)

I'm wondering if that's a good thing (in general).   SNP minority government, but with a choice of who to barter with:  Green, Alba or even one of the unionist parties on occasion.

(For recognition outwith Scotland of demand for Indy, of course and SNP majority PLUS an overwhelming pro-indy parties' majority looks better.)

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1 minute ago, Grim Jim said:

I'm wondering if that's a good thing (in general).   SNP minority government, but with a choice of who to barter with:  Green, Alba or even one of the unionist parties on occasion.

(For recognition outwith Scotland of demand for Indy, of course and SNP majority PLUS an overwhelming pro-indy parties' majority looks better.)

It will certainly say somehting about the psot-indy political landscape.

Bu I think the seat projections need to be taken with a huge dose of salt as small changes and regional variations could see seats swing quite different ways...

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Here's another one:

SNP majority of 9, and a whisker above 50% of constituency vote share

Indy +10 seats, Unionists -10 seats (all without Alba) Image

Image

Looks like the lovable Cole-Hamilton and Wullie Rennie clinging on.

Edited by exile
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10 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

So that's the SNP manifesto out.

Dental care free at the point of delivery. Nationalise the railways. Amongst other things.

And, oh aye, a referendum within the term of the next parliament.

 

Should be nationalising the Sleeper service too. Hopefully, that will come sooner rather than later.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

So that's the SNP manifesto out.

Dental care free at the point of delivery. Nationalise the railways. Amongst other things.

And, oh aye, a referendum within the term of the next parliament.

 

Typical Nicola Sturgeon cares more about teeth and trains than independence.  #MAXtheYES

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1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Should be nationalising the Sleeper service too. Hopefully, that will come sooner rather than later.

I thought it was only services wholly in Scotland they had responsibility over and not cross border ones which still sit with Westminster.

 

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53 minutes ago, aaid said:

Typical Nicola Sturgeon cares more about teeth and trains than independence.  #MAXtheYES

These are decent policies but yes, Sturgeon seems to be quite happy taking the political football to the corner flag to try to run down another 5 years. I've been a member of the SNP since the 60s (not continuously), but I don't think she has much clue about how to get indy.  Her naivety over the "Stop Brexit" election campaign was worrying and although she has done an excellent job as FM during the pandemic, in terms of communication at least, I don't see her as the leader to rouse the masses in the march to indy.  She needs to be a wee bit more Salmond.  If she prevaricates after may, she needs to be ousted as SNP leader.

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2 minutes ago, Alibi said:

These are decent policies but yes, Sturgeon seems to be quite happy taking the political football to the corner flag to try to run down another 5 years. I've been a member of the SNP since the 60s (not continuously), but I don't think she has much clue about how to get indy.  Her naivety over the "Stop Brexit" election campaign was worrying and although she has done an excellent job as FM during the pandemic, in terms of communication at least, I don't see her as the leader to rouse the masses in the march to indy.  She needs to be a wee bit more Salmond.  If she prevaricates after may, she needs to be ousted as SNP leader.

You are a parody account - right.

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

I thought it was only services wholly in Scotland they had responsibility over and not cross border ones which still sit with Westminster.

 

No the Sleeper was once joined with the ScotRail franchise when first National Express and then First Group ran it so definitely within the Scottish Government's remit and trashy Tory company SERCO are murdering the sleeper franchise as we speak. Coming up for a fourth strike in as many years. Prior to SERCO taking over there had been no strikes by sleeper staff since the early 1990s.

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Something very odd in the data for this recent Panelbase poll on the list vote which I haven't seen anywhere else.

Segmented by age and gender.  For males aged 16-34, the SNP are at 33% with the Greens at 24%.  For females of the same age the respective numbers are 60% and 9%.   I don't think I've ever seen such a difference between genders or the Greens having such a high vote in a demographic.

They are either picking up something that no-one else is or there is a problem with their sampling.

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13 minutes ago, aaid said:

Something very odd in the data for this recent Panelbase poll on the list vote which I haven't seen anywhere else.

Segmented by age and gender.  For males aged 16-34, the SNP are at 33% with the Greens at 24%.  For females of the same age the respective numbers are 60% and 9%.   I don't think I've ever seen such a difference between genders or the Greens having such a high vote in a demographic.

They are either picking up something that no-one else is or there is a problem with their sampling.

Celtic supporters pissed off with the polis? 🙂

Looks a bit strange right enough. 

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53 minutes ago, aaid said:

Something very odd in the data for this recent Panelbase poll on the list vote which I haven't seen anywhere else.

Segmented by age and gender.  For males aged 16-34, the SNP are at 33% with the Greens at 24%.  For females of the same age the respective numbers are 60% and 9%.   I don't think I've ever seen such a difference between genders or the Greens having such a high vote in a demographic.

They are either picking up something that no-one else is or there is a problem with their sampling.

Another thing that strikes me about some of these polls is the Greens on 4% of the constituency vote. Do they have enough candidates standing to get anywhere near that?

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51 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Another thing that strikes me about some of these polls is the Greens on 4% of the constituency vote. Do they have enough candidates standing to get anywhere near that?

They're standing in 12 constituencies, so yeah, maybe.

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5 hours ago, Alibi said:

These are decent policies but yes, Sturgeon seems to be quite happy taking the political football to the corner flag to try to run down another 5 years. I've been a member of the SNP since the 60s (not continuously), but I don't think she has much clue about how to get indy.  Her naivety over the "Stop Brexit" election campaign was worrying and although she has done an excellent job as FM during the pandemic, in terms of communication at least, I don't see her as the leader to rouse the masses in the march to indy.  She needs to be a wee bit more Salmond.  If she prevaricates after may, she needs to be ousted as SNP leader.

I don't see "Stop Brexit" as naivety. Only if you think NS was trying to stop Brexit. Its purpose was surely to get people to vote SNP. And it worked. SNP gained 13 seats and kicked the leader of a UK party out of Westminster. The SNP has presumably hoovered up lots of distruntled ex Remainers, especially non native Scots who are EU citizens who may have voted No in 2014 because of the EU. Under NS's watch support for Indy has grown to a majority.

Surely those ready to rise and march for indy are already in the '45'? But the tougher nuts to crack are surely those who are not already enthused by traditional 'nationalist' arguments but boringly vote on the economy, or good governance, or who are motivated by internationalism. Converting more of the 'silent majority for No' into a majority for Yes means using different levers from those so far used by Salmond. But it's not either-or.

Maybe Salmond can help keep Alba people interested enough to actually turn up and vote SNP1. That would be one certain benefit for Yes. But to win an indyref Salmond on his own is surely not enough. I have't yet seen an Alba pitch to entice No voters to turn to Yes. Maybe they will, when we see their manifesto and economic policy. Let's see.

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1 hour ago, exile said:

I don't see "Stop Brexit" as naivety. Only if you think NS was trying to stop Brexit. Its purpose was surely to get people to vote SNP.

My view was they were trying to show those soft No's how this isn't an equal Union and that the UK Government simply ignores Scotland and there is nothing we can do about it and in doing so get them to change their minds.

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7 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Is jim fairlie standing on the list or constituency for perth and kinross? I would like to se him elected

Both, but he is weil down the list so won't get elected that way. He will need to win his constituency. It's not Jim Fairlie from the TAMB though, it's his son.

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