Europa League 2020-21 - Page 5 - Football related - Discussion of non TA football - Tartan Army Message Board Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Celtic should win pretty comfortably.  I think our game could go either way and wouldn't be too surprised to see us go out by the odd goal.  I'd expect Sporting to have too much for Aberdeen even with their weakened team and think they'll win 2-0 or 3-0.  Don't really know much about Hapoel but as their seeded and at home would imagine they'll give Motherwell a pretty tough game and probably a similar result to Aberdeen.  Hopefully all 4 teams through though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for a bit of guide and because I've done it, I used each club's ClubElo rating to estimate the likelihood of them reaching the group stages of the Europa League. The ratings come from before last weekend's fixtures - so slight changes may have occurred since.

They take into account the probability of each side winning their third qualifying round tie and winning both possible play-off round ties (taking into account each side making it through the third qualifying round). So each 'fixture path' totals a 100% chance of one of the sides making the group stages.

Home advantage is factored, but because it's based on previous results any transfers, injuries, suspensions or Covid restrictions aren't considered.

For the 'fixture paths' including Scottish sides:

  • Celtic 72.2% (Sarajevo 21.3%; Riga 4.2%; Buducnost 2.3%)
  • Rangers 42.3% (Willem 26.2%; Galatasaray 24.1%; Hajduk Split 7.4%)
  • Motherwell 9.1% (Viktoria Plzen 52.3%; Hapoel Be'er Sheva 33.0%; SonderjyskE 5.6%)
  • Aberdeen 6.0% (Sporting CP 53.9%; LASK 38.7%; DAC Dunajska 1.5%)

Before any fixtures in this round were played, the most likely sides to qualify for the group stages from each path were:

  • Main Path winners: Tottenham Hotspur (ENG), Basel (SUI), Milan (ITA), Sporting CP (POR), Copenhagen (DEN), PSV Eindhoven (NED), Wolfsburg (GER), Viktoria Plzen (CZE), APOEL (CYP), Rangers (SCO), Charleroi (BEL), Granada (ESP), Standard Liege (BEL)
  • Champions Path winners: Celtic (SCO), Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL), Legia Warsaw (POL), Sheriff Tiraspol (MDA), CFR Cluj (ROU), Dinamo Zagreb (CRO), Red Star Belgrade (SRB), Young Boys (SUI)
  • CL Champions Path losers: Midtylland (DEN), Maccabi Tel-Aviv (ISR), Omonia (CYP), Molde (NOR)
  • CL League Path losers: Krasnodar (RUS), Gent (BEL)

Should all these sides make it through, Celtic would be in Pot 2 in the group stages and Rangers would be in Pot 3 (Celtic could make it into Pot 1, although unlikely, and Rangers could be in Pot 4 again depending on who makes it through). Aberdeen and Motherwell will be in Pot 4 if they make it through.

The hardest and easiest groups (based on their ClubElo rating) for each would be:

  • Celtic: Arsenal, Celtic, Milan, Hoffenheim / Copenhagen, Celtic, Legia Warsaw, Sheriff Tiraspol
  • Rangers: Arsenal, Wolfsburg, Rangers, Lille / Copenhagen, Sparta Prague, Rangers, Sheriff Tiraspol
  • Aberdeen/Motherwell: Arsenal, Wolfsburg, Milan, Aber/Moth / Copenhagen, Sparta Prague, Legia Warsaw, Aber/Moth.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Big Ramy 1314 said:

Lennon has 3 strikers to choose from and starts Ncham up front.. I don't know man..🙄

Lennon isnt a good manager and never has been. He is lucky he has a huge advantage over every other team in the league and hes even luckier the huns have a gump as manager.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

Lennon isnt a good manager and never has been. He is lucky he has a huge advantage over every other team in the league and hes even luckier the huns have a gump as manager.

I totally agree with you on this. He is riding his luck and has been for ages. No fuckin clue what he is doing... Thank fuck Slippy G is brain dead anaw..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...