European Teams’ Qualification Stats For This Century

[dohadeer]

I’m someone who is interested in the statistical side of sports, so I thought I’d see whether qualifying for major finals is really difficult, or just something that we’re making look difficult.

European international football went through a huge transformation in the 1990s, with three teams, Czechoslovakia, Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, splitting into around 20 teams. That’s three decent teams with good chances of qualifying, splitting into around 8 decent teams with chances of qualifying, and 12 or so other teams that might not have big chances of qualifying, but at the very least provide awkward away matches, with chances of dropping points for those who teams who do have high hopes of qualifying!

Since we last qualified for a major finals, in 1998, there have been 10 major finals for European teams, (5 World Cups and 5 European Championships). Here are the European teams which have qualified for those finals, and the number of times they have qualified. (I haven’t included Euro 2020 yet, as there are still qualification places up for grabs.)

 

France 10 (1 automatic)

Germany 10 (1 automatic)

Portugal 10 (1 automatic)

Spain 10

England 9

Italy 9

Croatia 8

Sweden 8

Netherlands 7 (1 automatic)

Russia 7 (1 automatic)

Switzerland 7 (1 automatic)

Czech Republic 6

Denmark 6

Poland 6 (1 automatic)

Belgium 5 (1 automatic)

Greece 5

Turkey 4

Republic of Ireland 3

Romania 3

Slovenia 3

Ukraine 3 (1 automatic)

Austria 2 (1 automatic)

Iceland 2

Serbia 2

Slovakia 2

Albania 1

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1

Bulgaria 1

Hungary 1

Latvia 1

Northern Ireland 1

Norway 1

Serbia and Montenegro 1

Wales 1

Yugoslavia 1

 

 

 

 

Edited February 21, 2020 by dohadeer

[dohadeer]

So, there are 34 different European teams, (counting Serbia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Yugoslavia as the same nation, and including Finland, who have qualified for Euro 2020), that have qualified for a major finals since we last appeared, in 1998.

Scotland sit in a group with Estonia, Israel and Montenegro, of teams which have made the playoffs in that time, but haven’t qualified during that period.

 

It looks like World Cups are now ridiculously difficult to qualify for through the European qualifiers, for all but the very best of teams. For a team of our level, unless the World Cup increases the number of teams participating in the finals, we’re probably looking at qualifying on average around once every 40 years. (So, two World Cups in a lifetime, for any of you from Generation Z, or anyone born from now on.) Amazing to think that a generation of us grew up with Scotland going to every finals! 

Assuming that the European Championships remains at 24 teams for the foreseeable future, that is obviously now a much easier event for which to qualify. Difficult to put a number on it, with only a couple of tournaments so far to use as examples, and it depends if UEFA continue handing out ‘sympathy places’ to lower-ranked teams, through the Nations League, but we should probably expect to qualify for an average of around three European Championships out of every five going forward. 

 

In summary, we are by far and away the ‘best’ European team (in terms of highest ranking, average ranking, average seeding etc), not to have qualified for a major finals this century. A team of our standard should have been to around 2 - 3 major finals in that time, going by expectations. Teams with a much lower average ranking than us - Albania, Latvia and Northern Ireland for example - have all managed to qualify at least once since the turn of the millennium. Whether that is down to bad luck, (our best two teams in that period ended up coinciding with our two trickiest draws, one of which was, I think, THE trickiest draw ever in European qualifying), or serious underachievement on our part? Probably a bit of both.

Edited February 21, 2020 by dohadeer

[ParisInAKilt]

[mcnish]

I think its actually ridiculously easy to qualify for the Euros since they expanded it to include half of Uefa. I don't have a problem accepting that there have been 34 Uefa European countries better than us this century, though I think Latvia's qualification was a little unrepresentative.

If European international football were the equivalent of the Scottish domestic league system we'd be something like Brechin.

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, mcnish said:

I think its actually ridiculously easy to qualify for the Euros since they expanded it to include half of Uefa. I don't have a problem accepting that there have been 34 Uefa European countries better than us this century, though I think Latvia's qualification was a little unrepresentative.

If European international football were the equivalent of the Scottish domestic league system we'd be something like Brechin.

You do know that Brechin are 9 points clear at the bottom of league two, don't you? Even I'm not that negative. 

 

[dohadeer]

2 hours ago, mcnish said:

I think its actually ridiculously easy to qualify for the Euros since they expanded it to include half of Uefa. I don't have a problem accepting that there have been 34 Uefa European countries better than us this century, though I think Latvia's qualification was a little unrepresentative.

If European international football were the equivalent of the Scottish domestic league system we'd be something like Brechin.

It has obviously become so much easier to qualify for the European Championships, now that there are 24 places instead of 16.  However, it’s a sad indication of how far we’ve fallen, that at our recent level, this will allow us to qualify for roughly half the Europeans Championships going forward.

Imagine in 1990, after qualifying for five World Cups in a row, during a period when only 9-14 European teams qualified for each tournament, if you’d said that in 25 years time, there would be 24 places available at the European Championship finals, and we would only have around a 50% chance of qualifying.

I don’t think that we could have ever imagined just how far we’d fall...... 🙁

[Grim Jim]

2 hours ago, dohadeer said:

It has obviously become so much easier to qualify for the European Championships, now that there are 24 places instead of 16.  However, it’s a sad indication of how far we’ve fallen, that at our recent level, this will allow us to qualify for roughly half the Europeans Championships going forward.

Imagine in 1990, after qualifying for five World Cups in a row, during a period when only 9-14 European teams qualified for each tournament, if you’d said that in 25 years time, there would be 24 places available at the European Championship finals, and we would only have around a 50% chance of qualifying.

I don’t think that we could have ever imagined just how far we’d fall...... 🙁

I do love your optimism

[Lairdyfaeinverclyde]

2 hours ago, dohadeer said:

It has obviously become so much easier to qualify for the European Championships, now that there are 24 places instead of 16.  However, it’s a sad indication of how far we’ve fallen, that at our recent level, this will allow us to qualify for roughly half the Europeans Championships going forward.

Imagine in 1990, after qualifying for five World Cups in a row, during a period when only 9-14 European teams qualified for each tournament, if you’d said that in 25 years time, there would be 24 places available at the European Championship finals, and we would only have around a 50% chance of qualifying.

I don’t think that we could have ever imagined just how far we’d fall...... 🙁

 

18 hours ago, dohadeer said:

So, there are 34 different European teams, (counting Serbia, Serbia and Montenegro, and Yugoslavia as the same nation, and including Finland, who have qualified for Euro 2020), that have qualified for a major finals since we last appeared, in 1998.

Scotland sit in a group with Estonia, Israel and Montenegro, of teams which have made the playoffs in that time, but haven’t qualified during that period.

 

It looks like World Cups are now ridiculously difficult to qualify for through the European qualifiers, for all but the very best of teams. For a team of our level, unless the World Cup increases the number of teams participating in the finals, we’re probably looking at qualifying on average around once every 40 years. (So, two World Cups in a lifetime, for any of you from Generation Z, or anyone born from now on.) Amazing to think that a generation of us grew up with Scotland going to every finals! 

Assuming that the European Championships remains at 24 teams for the foreseeable future, that is obviously now a much easier event for which to qualify. Difficult to put a number on it, with only a couple of tournaments so far to use as examples, and it depends if UEFA continue handing out ‘sympathy places’ to lower-ranked teams, through the Nations League, but we should probably expect to qualify for an average of around three European Championships out of every five going forward. 

 

In summary, we are by far and away the ‘best’ European team (in terms of highest ranking, average ranking, average seeding etc), not to have qualified for a major finals this century. A team of our standard should have been to around 2 - 3 major finals in that time, going by expectations. Teams with a much lower average ranking than us - Albania, Latvia and Northern Ireland for example - have all managed to qualify at least once since the turn of the millennium. Whether that is down to bad luck, (our best two teams in that period ended up coinciding with our two trickiest draws, one of which was, I think, THE trickiest draw ever in European qualifying), or serious underachievement on our part? Probably a bit of both.

You can post all the stats you want. Stats don't play 90 mins of football, stats don't determine how players perform, stats don't dictate refereeing decisions, stats don't take in to consideration the weather, stats don't matter when it comes to qualifying for tournaments. you either win, lose or draw games it's simple.

[dohadeer]

10 minutes ago, Lairdyfaeinverclyde said:

 

You can post all the stats you want. Stats don't play 90 mins of football, stats don't determine how players perform, stats don't dictate refereeing decisions, stats don't take in to consideration the weather, stats don't matter when it comes to qualifying for tournaments. you either win, lose or draw games it's simple.

I don’t understand your point. I didn’t say that stats do any of that. It’s just an analysis of how the European qualification places have been distributed this century.

’Stats don’t take into consideration the weather.’ What does that sentence even mean? There are loads of stats specifically ABOUT the weather. Just look on any TV channel, or default app on your phone! 

[dohadeer]

33 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

I do love your optimism

That’s just an analysis of where we are, based on the statistics presented. No optimism or pessimism involved.

[Grim Jim]

5 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

That’s just an analysis of where we are, based on the statistics presented. No optimism or pessimism involved.

I know.   I was a but flippant, but I am pessimistic ☹️