Coronavirus

[Orraloon]

41 minutes ago, phart said:

So much of the Covid conspiracies are just a product of folk not having basic numeracy. Toby Young an order of magnitude out doing a simple percentage calculation and now we have. It's hard to tell if it's sophistry or just plain old dumbfuckery.

All the people just nodding along in the comments. This is really basic stuff.

It also sets up a false positive ceiling which is really low.

 

I sometimes think this sort of stuff is a sad reflection of our education system. But then when I try to explain some of the basics to reasonably well educated and reasonably numerate people, I sometimes start to realise that it's not just that they can't understand it, it's more that they don't really want to understand it. Folk just can't be bothered to pay attention long enough to have stuff explained to them. Cats have longer attention spans. If questions can't be answered by a straight Yes or No they just aren't interested.

[phart]

seems first vaccination stats are coming out

[Orraloon]

2 minutes ago, phart said:

seems first vaccination stats are coming out

If they keep going at that rate they will have run out by the end of next week. Don't know when the next shipment is due?

 

[phart]

2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I sometimes think this sort of stuff is a sad reflection of our education system. But then when I try to explain some of the basics to reasonably well educated and reasonably numerate people, I sometimes start to realise that it's not just that they can't understand it, it's more that they don't really want to understand it. Folk just can't be bothered to pay attention long enough to have stuff explained to them. Cats have longer attention spans. If questions can't be answered by a straight Yes or No they just aren't interested.

My attention span had deteriorated quite badly. I used to be able to sit down and read a book cover to cover, then for a period I would struggle to keep engaged for 45 mins. Something about computers and just jumping about tasks that lowered it. I'm still in the process of trying to sort it out.

[Orraloon]

1 minute ago, phart said:

My attention span had deteriorated quite badly. I used to be able to sit down and read a book cover to cover, then for a period I would struggle to keep engaged for 45 mins. Something about computers and just jumping about tasks that lowered it. I'm still in the process of trying to sort it out.

Might be an age thing?  

I think you are starting from a very high base level, so you should be OK for a few years yet.

I have never been able to read for more than about a hour at a time and continue to take stuff in.

 

[phart]

Just now, Orraloon said:

If they keep going at that rate they will have run out by the end of next week. Don't know when the next shipment is due?

 

Think it's 65,500 doses we have right now. I read we (UK) get another million next week from Belgium. So that should be abother 86,000 or so. With 5 million doses before 2020 is over. Not sure how accurate that is though.

[Orraloon]

47 minutes ago, phart said:

Think it's 65,500 doses we have right now. I read we (UK) get another million next week from Belgium. So that should be abother 86,000 or so. With 5 million doses before 2020 is over. Not sure how accurate that is though.

Aye the first shipment was enough for about 32,000 people. They need to keep half in storage for the 2nd dose in 3 weeks time. If we were guaranteed continuity of supply they could just go ahead and vaccinate 65,000 people right now. But we need to see the supply chain working properly before they take that risk. But if we do get that 2nd delivery next week we can just bash on vaccinating folk. I'd like to know the doses are in freezers in Scotland first though.

 

[phart]

Just now, Orraloon said:

Aye the first shipment was enough for about 32,000 people. They need to keep half in storage for the 2nd dose in 3 weeks time. If we were guaranteed continuity of supply they could just go ahead and vaccinate 65,000 people right now. But we need to see the supply chain working properly before they take that risk. But if we do get that 2nd delivery next week we can just bash on vaccinating folk. I'd like to know the doses are in freezers in Scotland first though.

 

even one dose looks like it is quite good, some guy had a chart

 

[phart]

I've just been doing a course on Ribosomes lol

[ThistleWhistle]

On 12/10/2020 at 11:14 AM, phart said:

Compromise is a big thing.

My mate is really high up in management in a huge company. He says solving most problems is just getting folk to talk with each other without their guards being up and getting past all the irrelevant shit folk get caught up in.

I was far too black and white thinking when younger, still far from perfect but least moving in the right direction, well I hope others may disagree!

You've defo mellowed over the years - you and TPlinth were like a pair of attack dogs attacking in pincer formation to the point I was convinced for yonks you were one and the same.  

Might be a bit nostalgic but back in the day there was a better quality of bollocks being pontificated and dissected.  The thread about whether someone saw an eagle or a fat seagull I think it was, including technical biological drawings, taught me more in ornithology than I'd probably known in my life up to that point.  However, the argument remained frustratingly unresolved which really was the pure essence of the TAMB in microcosm - come, learn some pointless shit and leave still really resolving fuck all.  Now we pretty much just skip straight to the end bit.     

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, ThistleWhistle said:

You've defo mellowed over the years - you and TPlinth were like a pair of attack dogs attacking in pincer formation to the point I was convinced for yonks you were one and the same.  

Might be a bit nostalgic but back in the day there was a better quality of bollocks being pontificated and dissected.  The thread about whether someone saw an eagle or a fat seagull I think it was, including technical biological drawings, taught me more in ornithology than I'd probably known in my life up to that point.  However, the argument remained frustratingly unresolved which really was the pure essence of the TAMB in microcosm - come, learn some pointless shit and leave still really resolving fuck all.  Now we pretty much just skip straight to the end bit.     

It was a buzzard. I didn't actually see it, but I know it was a buzzard.

 

[ThistleWhistle]

17 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It was a buzzard. I didn't actually see it, but I know it was a buzzard.

 

🤣

[Orraloon]

The false positive tweet that phart posted the other day reminded me of the dividing by zero thread. That one was good.

[Lairdyfaeinverclyde]

Well i think i will go for a pint today, because i can (substantial meal of course). Inverclyde now in tier 2. Fair play to the people of Inverclyde. At the start of this pandemic we had the highest death rate in Scotland, now i can go for a pint of Ice Cold Tennants. And if you read this TDYER you Renfrewshire people stay away....😉

[bonzo]

40 minutes ago, Lairdyfaeinverclyde said:

Well i think i will go for a pint today, because i can (substantial meal of course). Inverclyde now in tier 2. Fair play to the people of Inverclyde. At the start of this pandemic we had the highest death rate in Scotland, now i can go for a pint of Ice Cold Tennants. And if you read this TDYER you Renfrewshire people stay away....😉

Have one for me 🍻 enjoy.

[Lairdyfaeinverclyde]

45 minutes ago, bonzo said:

Have one for me 🍻 enjoy.

Will do. Be a strange feeling going in to a pub. Hopefully, everyone can enjoy a beer in a pub soon.👍

[Orraloon]

Germany going back into lockdown until 10th January. We should be doing the same instead of opening up for xmas. 

[Big Ramy 1314]

People are getting complacent now, because of this vaccine.. Cases are going through the roof here in Ottawa, and Ontario now.. I walked past a pub yesterday, fairly busy, and not one person wearing a mask..

[fringo]

I unusually hadn't followed the news today and surprised there's not been a mention on here today.

London and many parts of England now going into tier 3.

[phart]

Just now, fringo said:

I unusually hadn't followed the news today and surprised there's not been a mention on here today.

London and many parts of England now going into tier 3.

London's growth looks to be happening really quickly and also some talk of a new variant, not sure how relevant that is though as dozens of variants anyway.

 

New SARS-CoV-2 variant 

The variant described today in the House of Commons contains a novel set of mutations associated with a lineage spreading rapidly in the South East of England (and more widely) that is the subject of ongoing investigations by the UK Public Health Agencies, coordinated by Public Health England and supported by COG-UK. This variant carries a set of mutations including an N501Y mutation in the receptor binding motif of the Spike protein that the virus uses to bind to the human ACE2 receptor.

Efforts are under way to confirm whether or not any of these mutations are contributing to increased transmission. There is currently no evidence that this variant (or any other studied to date) has any impact on disease severity, or that it will render vaccines less effective, although both questions require further studies performed at pace.  We will provide further updates as our investigations proceed.

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/news_item/update-on-new-sars-cov-2-variant-and-how-cog-uk-tracks-emerging-mutations/

[fringo]

4 minutes ago, phart said:

London's growth looks to be happening really quickly and also some talk of a new variant, not sure how relevant that is though as dozens of variants anyway.

 

New SARS-CoV-2 variant 

The variant described today in the House of Commons contains a novel set of mutations associated with a lineage spreading rapidly in the South East of England (and more widely) that is the subject of ongoing investigations by the UK Public Health Agencies, coordinated by Public Health England and supported by COG-UK. This variant carries a set of mutations including an N501Y mutation in the receptor binding motif of the Spike protein that the virus uses to bind to the human ACE2 receptor.

Efforts are under way to confirm whether or not any of these mutations are contributing to increased transmission. There is currently no evidence that this variant (or any other studied to date) has any impact on disease severity, or that it will render vaccines less effective, although both questions require further studies performed at pace.  We will provide further updates as our investigations proceed.

https://www.cogconsortium.uk/news_item/update-on-new-sars-cov-2-variant-and-how-cog-uk-tracks-emerging-mutations/

That's a quick and comprehensive reply 2 mins after my post ! 😀

Has everyone else been napping today ?

A bit scary (not the napping but the mutation).

[phart]

7 minutes ago, fringo said:

That's a quick and comprehensive reply 2 mins after my post ! 😀

Has everyone else been napping today ?

A bit scary (not the napping but the mutation).

90% of it is copied off a website that knows what they are talking about 😛

Aye lets hope it's a mutation that fucks the virus and not us!

[Toepoke]

According to the news this new strain appears to be related to the Danish mink mutation. Spreads quickly but isn't any more deadly or resistant to vaccines than other strains. Fingers xd 🤞

 

[exile]

On 12/13/2020 at 2:06 PM, Orraloon said:

Germany going back into lockdown until 10th January. We should be doing the same instead of opening up for xmas. 

Netherlands and Czech Republic going into Christmas lockdown too

[Lairdyfaeinverclyde]

Why are people surprised by what is happening in London, it should of been in tier 3 weeks ago. The pictures of Regent St with Christmas shoppers showed what a fuck up it was for London to be in tier 2 in the first place. Not convinced about this new variant, just an excuse to cover up the original tier allocation and how it has come back to bite them on the arse.