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As a side note given what's been posted previously I wanted everyone to know that we buried my mum today. There were just four of us at the cemetery, practising social distancing. It was surreal and u

I share your pain mate. 5am this morning I lost my father in law to this awful disease. Fought like a lion to try and hang on but it was a battle he couldn't win. You have my deepest sympathy mate. St

Not as strange as your tedious boring bastard routine 

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13 hours ago, phart said:

Cites Michael Levit first who is a nobel prize winning chemist and who also said Israel would have no more than 10 deaths, the USA would be finished with Corona by end of August and have no more than 170,000 deaths and a host of other failed predictions.

Let's ask Barack  Obama about the Coronavirus he has a nobel prize too. How about Bob Dylan what is his views on the epidemological implications of it?

That's 1 minute into a 37 minute video. A monetised youtube video by the way! No wonder it's 37 mins long.

Less than 24 hours ago

"Israel's cabinet is to consider whether to impose a nationwide lockdown, as the country struggles to halt a steep rise in coronavirus infections.

The health ministry reported 3,904 new cases on Wednesday, a new daily record that brought the total to 142,582. The death toll also rose by 11 to 1,054."
 
FACT  Levitt said that fears in Israel over the coronavirus were disproportionate to the threat, and that the number of cases in the country was uncertain due to reporting variances. "I will be surprised if the number of deaths in Israel surpasses 10," he said, adding that the Jewish state was "not on the world map for the disease."
 

It doesn’t matter who it cites. If the data source is flawed or manipulated then yes, bin it, but if the data (which I’ll fess up to having no idea if it’s gen or not) is reasonable then the theory is reasonable.
ps it’s the lower than normal excess deaths in the preceding period, not the Bob dylan take on it, that is interesting and worth debate.

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12 hours ago, ger intae them said:

It doesn’t matter who it cites. If the data source is flawed or manipulated then yes, bin it, but if the data (which I’ll fess up to having no idea if it’s gen or not) is reasonable then the theory is reasonable.
ps it’s the lower than normal excess deaths in the preceding period, not the Bob dylan take on it, that is interesting and worth debate.

Of course it matters. As he uses his opinion to state that you get a GOMPERTZ curve which he then uses to state that 80% of the population is already "defacto immune" through cross immunity, t cell mucosal immunity from prior coronaviruses infection.

He makes this assumption and the only source he cites is a chemist who has got all his coronavirus predicitons spectatularly wrong. In this case the person is the data, cause he just says as per Michael Levitt and doesn't cite anything else.

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42 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The Scandanavian countries haven't implemented face-masks citing a lack of evidence of effiaicy in the evidence so it's not even consensus politically they work let alone reduce by 80%.

The guy doing that analysis is the same guy who said over 4 years ago that Hilary Clinton had "late stage Parkinsons disease" though and that's obviously a lot of nonsense. So going to avoid the quackery.

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14 minutes ago, ger intae them said:


You draw your conclusions based on the data avail ...... thats why I said it depends on the quality of it, wasn’t sure of this momo mob.

he’s drawing the conclusions which seem reasonable .... although as with all things, may fit an agenda.

It seems reasonable to assume 80% immunity from COVID-19 caused by previous coronavirus infections "as per Michael Levitt"?

It's a 37 minute long video, we're probably referencing different parts all you stated was "A deficit in the preceding period? That is one theory. I am unsure. "

So hard to pin down what you are actualy arguing is reasonable and what data you think supports it.

I should have established that first , that's my fault.

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No bother. I’m referencing the excess death data (from euromomo) and then the conclusions drawn by Cummings. Whether or not there’s 80% immunity from previous infections or not doesn’t matter as you’re looking back at excess deaths stats.

just found the deficit bit interesting as hadn’t heard that before...... which obviously rings a few alarm bells if there aren’t many others talking about it..... fair chance it’s bollox.

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2 hours ago, ger intae them said:

No bother. I’m referencing the excess death data (from euromomo) and then the conclusions drawn by Cummings. Whether or not there’s 80% immunity from previous infections or not doesn’t matter as you’re looking back at excess deaths stats.

just found the deficit bit interesting as hadn’t heard that before...... which obviously rings a few alarm bells if there aren’t many others talking about it..... fair chance it’s bollox.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Yeah looking at it, there isn't much dry tinder at all. The red dotted line Stands for "Substantial increase" and the blue dotted line is "Baseline" and just by looking at it there seems a lot more above baseline than below it. I've attached the whole of 2019 and not the zoomed out data in the video so it's easier to see.

Then if you look at 2018 it was really mild but none of this "dry tinder" combusted the next year.

Also flu isn't Covid anyway, just as an aside.

COVID Z score.jpg

Covid zscore 2.jpg

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26 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Iol. He a professor of epidemiology at the University of Toronto.

You are the unqualified 'quack' on the tamb talking pish well outside your expertise.

What's his name? The guy i thought who was doing it was Dr Ted Noel who is an anesthesiologist. He is the only name cited in the article as an author that i could find.

 

They cite Peter Junei in this article https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/man-sollte-der-oeffentlichkeit-nichts-vorgaukeln-780632651447

but he didn't write the article you linked. In fact if you read the article(in which he is cited) he still says it is useful to wear a mask. "no i have always said i consider masks to be useful but that part of the interview was not broadcast"

But yeha whatever...

 

 

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Maybe you should have spent less time trying to character assassinate him using a bad spelling of his name rather than working out his actual name.

His real name has one letter with one of these weird accents above it which has probably auto translated badly. I could not find him at first neither.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Maybe you should have spent less time trying to character assassinate him using a bad spelling of his name rather than working out his actual name.

His real name has one letter with one of these weird accents above it which has probably auto translated badly. I could not find him at first neither.

 

 

What are you talking about? He didn't write the article you posted. In fact it's totally anonymous.

I've not said anything about him apart from to quote him in the text above. I spoke about Dr Ted Noel who appears in another link and who i thought wrote the article.
 

Here's the quote from german article cited when asked if masks were a joke from the interviewer; tonronto epidemiologist Peter Jüni

"No. I have always said that I consider masks to be useful where you linger longer and cannot keep the distance. But that part of the interview was not broadcast."

Do you think Peter Jüni wrote that thing you posted? Surely not he's just cited once and is in favour of masks anyway as the quote shows.

Anyway as always impossible to communicate with you since your radicalisation so can just put out the information for anyone else that stumbles across it and let them decide for themselves.

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Swiss Policy Research (SPR) (before May 2020 Swiss Propaganda Research) is a website launched in 2016, which describes itself as "an independent nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media". The editors of the site are unknown, but they claim that "SPR is composed of independent academics and receives no external funding".[1] The site has been widely criticised for spreading conspiracy theories, especially during the times of the COVID-19 pandemic when it has become a source of misinformation and disinformation internationally.[2] The site has been categorized as a tool of propaganda.[3] It has also been noted that, contrary to what the title suggests, the contents of the site are likely created outside of Switzerland.

n 2017 a University of Zurich report on media in Switzerland analyzed "six of the most-discussed alternative media", including SPR. Daniel Vogler concluded that SPR "resorts to conspiracy theories", and its contents are mostly "pseudo-scientific".[4]

Andrea Haefely wrote a critique of the website in the magazine Beobachter in May 2020, noting: "The website Swiss Propaganda Research assumes that the Swiss media does what it does: feed the readers with questionable information." He also suggested that the persistent use of the letter ß on the site suggests that the content creator is likely to be from outside Switzerland, as this particular letter form is not in common use within Switzerland.[5]

Stephan Russ-Mohl, professor of journalism and media management at the Università della Svizzera italiana, considers the articles on the SPRS to themselves serve as propaganda, rather than being serious research on the subject. He has noted that the anonymity of the website creates doubts over the reliability and authenticity of its research, particularly in a country such as Switzerland, which has full freedom of its press.[3]

 

There is neither an imprint nor a contact address on the website. "An absolute exclusion criterion as a serious media source," says Martin Emmer, Professor of Media and Communication Studies with a focus on media use at the Institute for Media and Communication Studies at the Free University of Berlin. Even a domain query via Whois does not provide any information about the operator or operators of the site.

Prior to the corona pandemic, SPR's main topic was speculative criticism of media allegedly doing propaganda in favor of the US and NATO. "Studies" and "infographics" should prove this.

However, experts criticize both the self-designation as a research group as well as their working method and interpretation of the term propaganda. The terms "research" and "research group" arouse the expectation of finding scientific information on the website. However, the content on the website does not meet this requirement.

"If you look at the offerings of the website as a whole, it quickly becomes clear that it can be assigned to a political side - while it tries to give itself the appearance of scientific objectivity and neutrality," says Christoph Neuberger, also a professor at the Institute for Media and Communication Studies of the FU Berlin.

"The content and the gesture on 'Swiss Policy Research' are pseudoscientific," says media researcher Neuberger, who also teaches journalistic quality on the Internet. "The so-called 'studies' do not meet the minimum scientific standards in many places.

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As SARS-CoV-2 continues its global spread, it’s possible that one of the pillars of Covid-19 pandemic control — universal facial masking — might help reduce the severity of disease and ensure that a greater proportion of new infections are asymptomatic. If this hypothesis is borne out, universal masking could become a form of “variolation” that would generate immunity and thereby slow the spread of the virus in the United States and elsewhere, as we await a vaccine.

One important reason for population-wide facial masking became apparent in March, when reports started to circulate describing the high rates of SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding from the noses and mouths of patients who were presymptomatic or asymptomatic — shedding rates equivalent to those among symptomatic patients.1 Universal facial masking seemed to be a possible way to prevent transmission from asymptomatic infected people. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) therefore recommended on April 3 that the public wear cloth face coverings in areas with high rates of community transmission — a recommendation that has been unevenly followed across the United States.

 

Past evidence related to other respiratory viruses indicates that facial masking can also protect the wearer from becoming infected, by blocking viral particles from entering the nose and mouth.2 Epidemiologic investigations conducted around the world — especially in Asian countries that became accustomed to population-wide masking during the 2003 SARS pandemic — have suggested that there is a strong relationship between public masking and pandemic control. Recent data from Boston demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 infections decreased among health care workers after universal masking was implemented in municipal hospitals in late March.

George W. Rutherford-George W. Rutherford is an Adjunct Professor of Epidemiology and Health Administration. His primary research interest is in the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases.

Dr. Monica Gandhi is an expert in infectious diseases.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2026913

So seems masks it is then :)

 

 

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14 hours ago, phart said:

What are you talking about? He didn't write the article you posted. In fact it's totally anonymous.

I've not said anything about him apart from to quote him in the text above. I spoke about Dr Ted Noel who appears in another link and who i thought wrote the article.
 

Here's the quote from german article cited when asked if masks were a joke from the interviewer; tonronto epidemiologist Peter Jüni

"No. I have always said that I consider masks to be useful where you linger longer and cannot keep the distance. But that part of the interview was not broadcast."

Do you think Peter Jüni wrote that thing you posted? Surely not he's just cited once and is in favour of masks anyway as the quote shows.

Anyway as always impossible to communicate with you since your radicalisation so can just put out the information for anyone else that stumbles across it and let them decide for themselves.

Another mental post.

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I'm working on the adege that there's no such thing as a stupid question, so here goes.  Anyone any idea of how Covid 19 might interact with the 'normal' colds and flu we get in the autumn/winter? We didn't get the first cases of Covid 19  until late February iirc. Certainly before that there were some nasty things going around but I don't know how that affects things. I was going through a PPT at school and was rather surprised to see the advice to students if they had a cold was to dose up on medicines and come in as normal. Similar advice went out in a letter to parents.

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2 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

I'm working on the adege that there's no such thing as a stupid question, so here goes.  Anyone any idea of how Covid 19 might interact with the 'normal' colds and flu we get in the autumn/winter? We didn't get the first cases of Covid 19  until late February iirc. Certainly before that there were some nasty things going around but I don't know how that affects things. I was going through a PPT at school and was rather surprised to see the advice to students if they had a cold was to dose up on medicines and come in as normal. Similar advice went out in a letter to parents.

It's now thought that the first death from COVID in the UK was in January. It just didn't get diagnosed at the time. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "interaction" but there is some evidence that having caught one virus, a person is less likely to catch another different one at the same time. When flu season ramps up the number of "common cold" viral infections seems to go down. The reasons for this are not well understood. It could be that different viruses "compete" against each other. Or, maybe when people feel ill they are less likely to be out and about to catch something else. More research is required.

COVID is such a new disease that we know relatively little about it so far. 

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35 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

I'm working on the adege that there's no such thing as a stupid question, so here goes.  Anyone any idea of how Covid 19 might interact with the 'normal' colds and flu we get in the autumn/winter? We didn't get the first cases of Covid 19  until late February iirc. Certainly before that there were some nasty things going around but I don't know how that affects things. I was going through a PPT at school and was rather surprised to see the advice to students if they had a cold was to dose up on medicines and come in as normal. Similar advice went out in a letter to parents.

No idea, it's an ongoing experiment as it's so new.

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Ive not really paid any attention to the anti mask stuff.

In the Asian countries I were in, they just wore them as it was probably helpful. They dont stop you breathing, they dont cause any discomfort.

Is it just that they are seen as the start of something insidious, of course no one knows where it ends, but thats not the point.

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