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Coronavirus


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3 hours ago, thplinth said:

So has this 14 day quarantine pish been lifted then? I was just told by someone in the NHS that it had been since last Friday?

It's been lifted for some countries. USA is not one of them.

"The list of overseas destinations where the self-isolation requirements for those arriving in Scotland will be lifted are:

Andorra; Antigua and Barbuda; Aruba; Australia; Austria; The Bahamas; Barbados; Belgium; Bonaire, Saint Eustatius and Saba; Croatia; Curaçao; Cyprus; Czech Republic; Denmark; Dominica; Faroe Islands; Fiji; Finland; France; French Polynesia; Germany; Greece; Greenland; Grenada; Guadeloupe; Hong Kong; Hungary ; Iceland; Italy; Jamaica; Japan; Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg; Macau; Malta; Mauritius; Monaco; The Netherlands ; New Caledonia; New Zealand; Norway; Poland ; Réunion; San Marino ;Seychelles; St Barthélemy; St Kitts & Nevis; St Lucia; St Pierre and Miquelon; South Korea; Switzerland; Taiwan; Trinidad & Tobago; Turkey; Vatican City State and Vietnam.

The fourteen UK overseas territories also on the list of exemptions are: Akrotiri and Dhekelia; Anguilla; Bermuda; British Antarctic Territory; British Indian Ocean Territory; British Virgin Islands; Cayman Islands; Falkland Islands; Gibraltar; Montserrat; Pitcairn, Henderson, Ducie and Oeno Islands; Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha; South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Ireland is already exempt as part of the Common Travel Area, as are the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man."

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In fact this graph with the country listing shows things a bit better.

"The chart shows reported deaths from #covid19 per 10 million people. Scotland's rate was one of the worst in Europe, but it's now one of the best."

Note, it's the 7 day rolling average, so it's not saying Scotland doesn't have a worse record overall, than some other countries. But it does show the difference that has been made since May. Around the time Scotland (and Wales and N Ireland) started diverging from the UK Government approach?

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49 minutes ago, exile said:

In fact this graph with the country listing shows things a bit better.

"The chart shows reported deaths from #covid19 per 10 million people. Scotland's rate was one of the worst in Europe, but it's now one of the best."

Note, it's the 7 day rolling average, so it's not saying Scotland doesn't have a worse record overall, than some other countries. But it does show the difference that has been made since May. Around the time Scotland (and Wales and N Ireland) started diverging from the UK Government approach?

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There's been a few blog posts from select scientists saying Public Health England have been counting out of hospital deaths wrong and media running with the story that's why England is doing so much worse than "other regions", simplistic arguments that reek of politics too me.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

It makes no mention fo folk not testing positive being counted and how that would inflate the figure etc.

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8 minutes ago, phart said:

There's been a few blog posts from select scientists saying Public Health England have been counting out of hospital deaths wrong and media running with the story that's why England is doing so much worse than "other regions", simplistic arguments that reek of politics too me.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no-one-can-ever-recover-from-covid-19-in-england-a-statistical-anomaly/

It makes no mention fo folk not testing positive being counted and how that would inflate the figure etc.

That may be the case, - ie England's COVID death rate could be lower than recorded - but that doesn't explain the apparent divergence, on the above graph. since late May. 

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37 minutes ago, exile said:

That may be the case, - ie England's COVID death rate could be lower than recorded - but that doesn't explain the apparent divergence, on the above graph. since late May. 

If you count things differently they then can't be used comparitively in a graph without at least some sort of expanation, the y axis has different definitons for different countries but is presented as just the y axis.

This is beside the point I was making though, just saying the papers are starting to spin the difference between the Wales, NI, Scotland and England figures using shoddy reasoning. The graph I imagine has some value even though y axis is counted different.

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20 minutes ago, phart said:

If you count things differently they then can't be used comparitively in a graph without at least some sort of expanation, the y axis has different definitons for different countries but is presented as just the y axis.

This is beside the point I was making though, just saying the papers are starting to spin the difference between the Wales, NI, Scotland and England figures using shoddy reasoning. The graph I imagine has some value even though y axis is counted different.

Sure, we're making our own points. And yes all comparisons of this sort have different definitions. All I'm saying is is that whatever y is, there's a change in pattern.

By the way I see the article in your link has a lead author "Yoon".

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24 minutes ago, exile said:

Sure, we're making our own points. And yes all comparisons of this sort have different definitions. All I'm saying is is that whatever y is, there's a change in pattern.

By the way I see the article in your link has a lead author "Yoon".

Yeah i added the bit about making points as we're not really contradicting each other just making different arguments.

That also stuck out to me, I think it's an Asian name though lol

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11 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Testing's been ramped up fourfold though...

 

Hopefully that is the reason. 

Higher testing rates has also been used as, at least part of, the reason that Dundee seems to have more positive tests than elsewhere.

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Hopefully that is the reason. 

Higher testing rates has also been used as, at least part of, the reason that Dundee seems to have more positive tests than elsewhere.

Prof Jason Leitch said yesterday he would be more concerned if the 21 cases were an actual cluster rather than spread across the country like we have with these new infections. And the number of infectious people are at a low level too. Something like 700 whereas a few weeks ago it was something like 2500. Not getting too worried although the acid test will be the numbers following the likes of pubs reopening

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It was mobbed in Bathgate last night when i went to pick someone up from work. They were saying Trains chock a block with folk coming back from Edinburgh so people movement is back to full capacity so we'll see in 3 weeks...

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10 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Cheers. Been struggling to understand testing numbers, but looks like those numbers are the number of tests carried out rather than number of people tested. Not quite sure how the stats work though - daily briefing numbers seem to quote numbers of people.

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1 hour ago, biffer said:

Cheers. Been struggling to understand testing numbers, but looks like those numbers are the number of tests carried out rather than number of people tested. Not quite sure how the stats work though - daily briefing numbers seem to quote numbers of people.

Aye, this bit makes that clearer.

"From the 14,656 tests carried out in the last 24-hour period, a total of 4254 Scots were tested."

I think that on average every person who tests positive will get about 3 more tests. That info was from a wee while ago so that number might have increased? But that also has to be balanced up against the fact that only a small proportion of people who are tested come out positive. 

Depending on what is of interest to you, it's important to differentiate between "number of tests" and " number of different people tested"

 

 

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1 hour ago, phart said:

That's an announcement based on Stock Market rules not scientific best practices. So be wary,

Yes I know. They haven't published the study yet. It's a very small number of patients as well, so more trials will be required. 

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So quarantine on arrivals from Spain is to be lifted at the end of the week, the reason it was not removed previously was "high numbers". Hate to tell you Nicola numbers are even higher at present. I can't fathom out your logic on this one.

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