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Coronavirus


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11 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

Look after yourself pal.   My dad's lungs were fekked (low capacity with a lot of scarring, plus asthma).   He was an athlete when young, but since I was a kid he was coughing his guts up.   Then for him came mankind's greatest invention I think;  the Ventolin inhaler.

He passed peacefully in his sleep in the end.   I'm not giving you his age.   You don't need any target from me!   We all have an hour glass somewhere, and he did reach decades older than his dad did.

Cheers mate - I'll do my best! I come from a long line of men with crap lungs but as far back as I can tell, each generation seems to add a decade or two on. My dad was 74 when he died of lung trouble, so I'm aiming for early 90s at least :)

8 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

Meanwhile I see our local supermarket has not just run out or hand sanitiser, but soap as well.   I think folk here have just discovered washing.

I was laughing about this at the Town match last week. It was the first time I can ever remember there being a queue to get to the sink. Back in my day, half the lads at the match used to p1ss on their hands to keep them warm. Suddenly there's more alcohol on their hands than in their stomach!

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6 hours ago, Grim Jim said:

Meanwhile I see our local supermarket has not just run out or hand sanitiser, but soap as well.   I think folk here have just discovered washing.

Before this outbreak supermarkets in Dundee didn't even bother to stock the stuff.

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4 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Neither do these folk, most have other issues so it's not the Corona alone that's done them.

I agree. Corona or flu alone don’t kill you. But if these same people had caught the flu, even given their underlying additional conditions, 5% of them wouldn’t have died. 

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14 hours ago, phart said:

Saw this on twitter

 

I've moved through my panic phase and got back to my "calm doon and look at some numbers phase".

This bit

"In other words... do nothing & accept death rates >10% for elderly."

is a bit of a dramatic statement probably designed to attract attention. Even if the mortality rate in the elderly does turn out to be 10% (we don't know that yet, it's far too early to say) it's not 10% of all old people. It's 10 of elderly folk who happen to get infected.

If 20% of the population get infected and the mortality rate is 10% then it's 2%of the population who actually die. That's still a big number but it's not "10% of old folk will die".

The number of new cases has been 3-4000 per day over the past few days. If it settles out at that level then the situation is manageable. But it's probably going to get worse before it gets better.

One of the problems with this virus is the speed at which this has happened. This has all happened within about 70 days. In comparison the first SARS outbreak infected about 8000 people with about 800 deaths but over a period of 8 months.

The big problems will start when hospitals can no longer cope with treating the numbers of severe and critical patients that develop. I'm still hopeful that we won't get to that stage. We'll just have to wait and see. 

 

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43 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I've moved through my panic phase and got back to my "calm doon and look at some numbers phase".

This bit

"In other words... do nothing & accept death rates >10% for elderly."

is a bit of a dramatic statement probably designed to attract attention. Even if the mortality rate in the elderly does turn out to be 10% (we don't know that yet, it's far too early to say) it's not 10% of all old people. It's 10 of elderly folk who happen to get infected.

If 20% of the population get infected and the mortality rate is 10% then it's 2%of the population who actually die. That's still a big number but it's not "10% of old folk will die".

The number of new cases has been 3-4000 per day over the past few days. If it settles out at that level then the situation is manageable. But it's probably going to get worse before it gets better.

One of the problems with this virus is the speed at which this has happened. This has all happened within about 70 days. In comparison the first SARS outbreak infected about 8000 people with about 800 deaths but over a period of 8 months.

The big problems will start when hospitals can no longer cope with treating the numbers of severe and critical patients that develop. I'm still hopeful that we won't get to that stage. We'll just have to wait and see. 

 

the numbers and a wee maths refresher all in one.

 

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17 minutes ago, phart said:

the numbers and a wee maths refresher all in one.

 

That's a very good explanation. I just hope the inflection point comes soon. It also helps explain something that I mentioned previously about why public health professionals think that stopping air travel doesn't have as big an impact as we might think.

Virologists use the terms "basic reproductive number" and "effective reproductive number" but the same maths that are in that video. The aim is to get the "effective reproductive number" down below" 1.0. 

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Looks like we might have the right to be a bit concerned about the so called "man flu" syndrome. Next time your weemin folk slag you off about "man flu" just quote this to them. 

 

"Puzzlingly, men had a higher fatality rate than women. In the study, 2.8 percent of adult male patients died compared with a 1.7 percent fatality rate among female patients.

Are men more at risk?

In multiple studies, researchers have noted higher case numbers in men than in women. The WHO Joint Mission report found that men made up 51 percent of cases. Another study of 1,099 patients found that men made up 58 percent of cases.

So far, it is unclear if these numbers are real or if they would even out if researchers looked at larger numbers of cases. It’s also unclear if this bias may reflect differences in exposure rates, underlying health conditions, or smoking rates that may make men more susceptible.

That said, sex differences have been seen in illnesses caused by SARS-CoV-2’s relatives, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. There is some preliminary research looking into this in mice. Some findings suggest that there may be a protective effect from the activity of the female hormone estrogen. Other research has also suggested that genes found on the X chromosome that are involved in modulating immune responses to viruses may also serve to better protect genetically female people, who have two X chromosomes, compared with genetic males, who have only one X chromosome."

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More numbers, whatever Japan did should be adopted universally. For instance immediately switching to prevention from containment. Instead of dilly dallying and speaking about trains of thoughts of just taking it on the chin and letting it burn through unopposed.

 

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1 hour ago, phart said:

new Italian cases for the day.

Transmission slightly down death rate slightly up

Check this site out - faster updates than the John Hopkins dashboard.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

168 New Deaths in Italy out of 631 in total. Wow. They are way out of control at this point. Hence the mass lock down I suppose.

Europe's actions especially are totally pathetic. We are going to get ravaged is my guess. All bets are off now.

This could bring down Trump, the Tories anyone who is perceived to have fucked up. Total black swan type event.

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12 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Check this site out - faster updates than the John Hopkins dashboard.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

168 New Deaths in Italy out of 631 in total. Wow. They are way out of control at this point. Hence the mass lock down I suppose.

Europe's actions especially are totally pathetic. We are going to get ravaged is my guess. All bets are off now.

This could bring down Trump, the Tories anyone who is perceived to have fucked up. Total black swan type event.

Apparently the death rate goes up as the cases increase cause the hospitals get over-whelmed.

There's a moronavirus subreddit showing all the dumbfucks just going out and about even though they have family members with the disease, some twats in Italy broke the quarantine to go skiing and tested positive, some dad who's one daughter was suspected decided to go out all day with his other daughter then go to the school father-daughter event etc.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, phart said:

Apparently the death rate goes up as the cases increase cause the hospitals get over-whelmed.

There's a moronavirus subreddit showing all the dumbfucks just going out and about even though they have family members with the disease, some twats in Italy broke the quarantine to go skiing and tested positive, some dad who's one daughter was suspected decided to go out all day with his other daughter then go to the school father-daughter event etc.

The Chinese are a relatively homogeneous single minded national entity and a well organized dictatorship and as such they have acted with a degree of success. We will see how it pans out...

Europe however is a diverse mess of hopelessly fucked identity politics bullshite . We are going to get absolutely fucked by this versus China is my guess. Listen to that fud Boris talking about it... holy fuck. Where is the response? Compared to China we are rolling over to it...

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16 minutes ago, thplinth said:

The Chinese are a relatively homogeneous single minded national entity and a well organized dictatorship and as such they have acted with a degree of success. We will see how it pans out...

Europe however is a diverse mess of hopelessly fucked identity politics bullshite . We are going to get absolutely fucked by this versus China is my guess. Listen to that fud Boris talking about it... holy fuck. Where is the response? Compared to China we are rolling over to it...

I wouldn't believe a single word of China's claims over their success in containing this. They will simply have rounded up people suspected of having it, and wiped them out. 

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2 minutes ago, kumnio said:

I wouldn't believe a single word of China's claims over their success in containing this. They will simply have rounded up people suspected of having it, and wiped them out. 

Well if that is true (and I share your fears) we are really even more fucked.

The way it is spreading in Europe and the Middle East is vastly outpacing China now in terms of growth rates... China went into lockdown early... empty streets etc... look around you... we are all like yaaay everything is cool. I was in the pub earlier... it was packed.

Flights still flying everywhere... where are the preventative measures in Europe?

We don't even seem to be looking for it. Anyone been tested going through an airport in the UK, a station or whatever.

South Korea tested hundreds of thousands or people and wow they found it in large numbers.

The UK's approach is the three monkeys one.

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