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Seems pointless closing dow travel. Netherlands tested all incoming passengers from SA yesterday, 10% were positive. We never had any checks into Heathrow so some positives will have already came through.

Their sequencing the samples to see what variant they are, omicron is easy to detect in pcr due it's structure.

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4 hours ago, phart said:

Seems pointless closing dow travel. Netherlands tested all incoming passengers from SA yesterday, 10% were positive. We never had any checks into Heathrow so some positives will have already came through.

Their sequencing the samples to see what variant they are, omicron is easy to detect in pcr due it's structure.

Listening to a passenger who was on that flight who tested negative I wouldn't be surprised if most of them will have caught it.

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On 11/24/2021 at 12:54 PM, Lamia said:

My turn tomorrow. Not looking forward to it. There seems to be a mix of getting the jab in one or both arms. I initially heard that they would only do one in each arm and then started hearing about others getting it in one arm and then others getting a choice. Think I would prefer one arm given how sore it was with the first two Covid vaccines. I had AZ the last time so it is making me worry more because I have no experience of Pfizer or Moderrna. On the other hand I know these are better.

take Moderna - I have Pfizer - my US doctor said in his experience he is seeing less covid cases with Moderna - although both are offering protection - normally a 2nd moderna shot gives bad symptioms so should be good with 1st 

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2 hours ago, euan2020 said:

take Moderna - I have Pfizer - my US doctor said in his experience he is seeing less covid cases with Moderna - although both are offering protection - normally a 2nd moderna shot gives bad symptioms so should be good with 1st 

We don't get a choice - I got Pfizer. Happy with that.

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On 11/9/2021 at 11:30 AM, ThistleWhistle said:

Thought the above would be of interest.  

Again for me public confidence in the vaccine is more important than its efficacy - this from yesterday did no favours at all:

NHS boss Amanda Pritchard is accused of 'abusing' Covid statistics | Daily Mail Online

  • Ms Pritchard claimed today there were '14 times' more Covid patients in hospital now than 'this time last year'
  • Yet figures show 800 admissions and 7,000 inpatients in England now compared to 1,300 and 11,000 in 2020
  • NHS England was later forced to clarify that Ms Pritchard was referring to statistics from earlier this autumn

Final report on this.

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-emma-rourke-ons-deaths-involving-covid-19-by-vaccination-status-publication/

"...While the age-standardised mortality rates for deaths involving COVID-19 are consistently lower for people who have received two vaccinations, the size of the difference varies enormously depending on the time frame chosen..."

"...It is clear from Figure 1, mortality rates by week, that there is huge variation in age standardised mortality rates over time, and that there is considerable variation in the difference between the rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated. Figure 1 also benefits from a visual representation of the uncertainty associated with the dataThe Comparison to other studies section also provides helpful context. The problems might have been avoided if, instead of considering the whole period, age-standardised mortality rates and their ratios had been calculated over shorter intervals, such as monthly or bi-monthly, thus complementing Figure 1.   

Given the analysis carried out, more should have been done to highlight the uncertainty associated with the headline figure. The publication itself did go some way towards putting the headline figure in context, but this was not the case in the more condensed description in the tweet..."

A headline problem which is obviously big cause hardly anyone ever reads the details not a technical mathematical problem though. Printing error bars should be standard procedure for reporting though as just about every expert has been advocating for as long as I can remember.

 

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18 hours ago, phart said:

This is a super interesting thread (Well I think so)

 

Coronavirus mutated 32 times inside South African HIV-positive woman over course of seven months

 

  • If more such cases are found, it raises the prospect that HIV infection could be a source of new variants
  • It is not clear whether the mutations the 36-year-old South African carried were passed on to others

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/africa/article/3136136/woman-hiv-had-covid-19-seven-months-virus-mutated-32-times-inside?s=09

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43 minutes ago, phart said:

Final report on this.

https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-emma-rourke-ons-deaths-involving-covid-19-by-vaccination-status-publication/

"...While the age-standardised mortality rates for deaths involving COVID-19 are consistently lower for people who have received two vaccinations, the size of the difference varies enormously depending on the time frame chosen..."

"...It is clear from Figure 1, mortality rates by week, that there is huge variation in age standardised mortality rates over time, and that there is considerable variation in the difference between the rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated. Figure 1 also benefits from a visual representation of the uncertainty associated with the dataThe Comparison to other studies section also provides helpful context. The problems might have been avoided if, instead of considering the whole period, age-standardised mortality rates and their ratios had been calculated over shorter intervals, such as monthly or bi-monthly, thus complementing Figure 1.   

Given the analysis carried out, more should have been done to highlight the uncertainty associated with the headline figure. The publication itself did go some way towards putting the headline figure in context, but this was not the case in the more condensed description in the tweet..."

A headline problem which is obviously big cause hardly anyone ever reads the details not a technical mathematical problem though. Printing error bars should be standard procedure for reporting though as just about every expert has been advocating for as long as I can remember.

 

on James well

 

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https://www.rt.com/news/541531-sputnik-vaccine-hungary-minister-interview/

There are a lot of people in the eastern and former soviet EU who would have taken this Russian vaccine eagerly if offered it.

I have posted long ago that I would have, had I could... right at the start of pandemic. Really pissed off it was stymied. 

Many people trust the Russian vaccines much more than the western ones (myself included) yet they are denied them even when it would 'up' the vaccine uptake hugely...

Instead it has been withheld and slagged off for purely political reasons.

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3 minutes ago, thplinth said:

https://www.rt.com/news/541531-sputnik-vaccine-hungary-minister-interview/

There are a lot of people in the eastern and former soviet EU who would have taken this Russian vaccine eagerly if offered it.

I have posted long ago that I would have, had I could... right at the start of pandemic. Really pissed off it was stymied. 

Many people trust the Russian vaccines much more than the western ones (myself included) yet they are denied them even when it would 'up' the vaccine uptake hugely...

Instead it has been withheld and slagged off for purely political reasons.

I wanted it because it had a cool name 🤔😂

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Moderna and sputnik both outperformed Pfizier.

Moderna edging out sputnik in one category and sputnik edging out moderna in the other. I think it was symptomatic infection and hospitalisation both in the mid 90's for latter and high 80's for former.

Against death almost all the vaccines are identical and extremely effective even AZ. Argentina was the source of real world data there as thye granted emergency use early on and used all the vaccines.

 

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The Russian institute that developed Sputnik V are excellent. I posted on this before so will not repeat again and again...

Interestingly in countries like Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, Slovenia etc... the older generation were very positive (relatively speaking) about the Russian vaccines and would have taken them in high numbers (for them) had they been made available.

That is what blew my mind when they played politics and blocked them...

So many people have died over this 'game'.

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However this time last year it hadn't had phase III trials so it was never going to get approved. This has been cvered multiple times in this thread.

It was even more "experimental" than the other vaccines,

Russia’s fast-track coronavirus vaccine draws outrage over safety

The immunization is the first approved for widespread use but could be dangerous because it hasn’t been tested in large trials, say researchers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02386-2

“Phase three trials are critical” for vaccine development, said Daniel Salmon, director of the Institute for Vaccine Safety at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/11/scientists-worry-whether-russias-sputnik-v-coronavirus-vaccine-is-safe-and-effective.html

You can't just pick and choose what is experimental and what is not based on your politics.

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46 minutes ago, Lamia said:

I wanted it because it had a cool name 🤔😂

I am against naming the new variant by Greek numbers or whatever it is. Omicron... FFS... that almost sounds cool... like the robot baddie in the next Transformers movie (not that I watch that pish your understand.)

I think we should move to a whole new naming regime... So after Omicron I say we move to … Brian. And then it is like hurricanes we just go alphabetically. So next variant is obviously Chesney.

 

 

Edited by thplinth
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