Coronavirus

[Squirrelhumper]

Sturgeon doing an update at lunchtime. 

Think I'll pass.

[thplinth]

Was listening to someone comparing this pandemic to Spanish Flu. Because there you get to see what happens in an unvaccinated population. 

Even though it was devastating Spanish Flu had pretty much fizzled out in a year they said. Also they have dug up victims and researched it around the globe and it did not mutate significantly, or nothing like what we are seeing now.

I think there is a not insignificant chance we have fucked up here and are creating the circumstances for a much deadlier and devastating variant to emerge.

What worries me about that is (apart from dying of course) is that if it does happen, they wont admit the mistake, no chance. They'll double down. Even ordinary unqualified people are so invested in being 'right' on all of this it is scary.

Again not looking for an argument, time will tell anyway.

[ThistleWhistle]

13 hours ago, phart said:

 

It’s interesting, and frightening, essentially living in a live science experiment especially when the folk who should be listened too are getting drowned out. 

 

The Pfizer efficacy seems to drop off a cliff purely from that graph if the trend continues.  Be interesting to see if the 3 week gap between doses in Israel has had an impact over there in comparison to us at 8-11. 

 

Seems like the UK Government have already decided boosters will be needed as they’ve secured 35m Pfizer for late 2022 so that’s already looking at least round two of boosters capacity.  Probably proof of arse covering and planning medium term than anything specifically about the vaccine itself but still the elephant in the room is what is the point in us securing boosters when large swathes of the world, particularly developing countries, will still be struggling with the first round of vaccination.  It seems as tactically and strategically astute as having a castle with 100 foot high walls at the front and picket fence round the back.      

[thplinth]

If we have got it wrong and this is going to result in the vaccinated cooking up gradually hotter versions of the virus then effectively the first world is about to malky the third world as I would imagine large numbers of them are still not vaccinated.

Plus there will always be a significant percentage of people in first world countries who are unvaccinated and they also will get hit hard. 

We may in arrogance have started an arms race with this virus that ultimately we cant win. If that turns out to be the case then we should halt the vaccination programs immediately. But people are so committed to them I doubt they would even if the danger was staring them in face at that point.

If it keeps coming back getting hotter and hotter then that is the alarm bell. I think we are maybe seeing it already but it is too early to say. Time will tell, it is a scary situation at this point, it really is. 

Edited August 24, 2021 by thplinth

[thplinth]

As for the vaccinated the alarm bell for them is if they start saying you need to keep taking additional vaccines (essentially to keep up with the virus as it gets hotter and hotter). 

If any of this happens we have to stop and essentially face the music (or we could end up creating something truly fucking biblical here).

What is that curse again... May you live in interesting times.

[phart]

1 hour ago, ThistleWhistle said:

 

 

The Pfizer efficacy seems to drop off a cliff purely from that graph if the trend continues.  Be interesting to see if the 3 week gap between doses in Israel has had an impact over there in comparison to us at 8-11. 

 

    

It depened what the confounding vairables are and as shown in the thread it's what immunologists said would happen.

As stated "But critically, despite signs of waning protection against infection, there are no clear signs yet that our defences are failing when faced with severe disease."

We should be using the vaccine to get folk their first jabs not folk their third. Especially when you look at that quote about protection against severe disease.

[phart]

All the hot vaccines or "Variants of concern" happened in unvaccinated populations. Delta happened before anyone but some control groups had been vaccinated, as did Alpha Beta and Gamma, the other VoC.

The world has delivered about 5 billion does of the vaccine so far, there's no evidence of the vaccine causing negative selection pressure but folk have to finds way to rationalise why they haven't decided to get vaccinated so can't let the facts get in the way of a narrative they feed themselves.

[86glebestreet]

4323 new cases overnight

[phart]

11 minutes ago, 86glebestreet said:

4323 new cases overnight

Think the highest one day total ever was 4234 previously.

I see it is 14.5% positivity as well.

[phart]

Tabby's comparison trend graph shows how well vaccines have mitigated case rises, let's hope it continues.

[Orraloon]

1 hour ago, thplinth said:

As for the vaccinated the alarm bell for them is if they start saying you need to keep taking additional vaccines (essentially to keep up with the virus as it gets hotter and hotter). 

If any of this happens we have to stop and essentially face the music (or we could end up creating something truly fucking biblical here).

What is that curse again... May you live in interesting times.

Is it just COVID vaccinations that you are concerned about, or do you think we should consider halting all vaccinations?

[phart]

 

[thplinth]

What is going on here then... One of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Edited August 25, 2021 by thplinth

[thplinth]

Bit of light relief... don't be mad.

 

[Lamia]

3 hours ago, thplinth said:

What is going on here then... One of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

Pretty much what is happening here

[Orraloon]

One interesting thing I found out recently, which I initially found hard to believe, is that 28% of the population of Israel is under 14. I had to go and check that figure. That is one aspect which needs to be borne in mind when talking about vaccines. As a percentage of total population I think the UK has a higher vaccination rate than Israel. 

 

[phart]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

One interesting thing I found out recently, which I initially found hard to believe, is that 28% of the population of Israel is under 14. I had to go and check that figure. That is one aspect which needs to be borne in mind when talking about vaccines. As a percentage of total population I think the UK has a higher vaccination rate than Israel. 

 

It does Israel is 65% vaccinated, folk aren't comparing like for like, hence the two huge threads I posted where experts explain the nuance.

However folk are looking to confirm their fears or re-inforce their choices not find out what is happening.

The unvaccinated are the ones putting themselves at risk.

Edited August 25, 2021 by phart

[phart]

and like clockwork

 

Edited August 25, 2021 by phart

[phart]

Scottish numbers getting a bit wild

• 5,021 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 47,991 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
  • 11.0% of these were positive

Thankfully so many folk vaccinated or we'd be in deep trouble.

 

[Squirrelhumper]

16 minutes ago, phart said:

Scottish numbers getting a bit wild

• 5,021 new cases of COVID-19 reported
• 47,991 new tests for COVID-19 that reported results
  • 11.0% of these were positive

Thankfully so many folk vaccinated or we'd be in deep trouble.

 

Good bit of herd immunity by time the winter comes. 

They won't say it but given the high % of the population double dunted now (especially in over 40s) then i think they are happy just to ride this out. 

Can't live stop start lives forever. Cases are high, however hospital admissions aren't reflective of that compared to Jan/Feb when we had few vaccinated. 

Worst thing Sturgeon did during this (apart from the care home scandal) is come out with zero covid nonsense. We ARE going to have to live with this, we can't shut down every year when there's an outbreak. 

 Zero Covid was never going to happen and you only need to look at OZ/NZ to see the fuck up that is turning out to be.  Slow vaccine roll out and a lot more vaccine sceptics than over here which isn't going to end well. 

Nightclubs etc opening up was always going to lead to a big surge in cases, the SG knew this, not sure they are overly concerned. 

Furlough ended in a couple of weeks means they;ll have nowhere near the same powers to lockdown here as they had before. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by Squirrelhumper

[Squirrelhumper]

Also don't believe the English figures. 

Given we have harsher lockdowns, they;ll have more herd immunity (reported and unreported) and i think that;'s why our cases always go tonto whenever we ease restrictions. 

Cases only going to go up with schools going back and very few of the kids vaccinated. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by Squirrelhumper

[Orraloon]

9 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Good bit of heard immunity by time the winter comes. 

They won't say it but given the high % of the population double dunted now (especially in over 40s) then i think they are happy just to ride this out. 

Can't live stop start lives forever. Cases are high, however hospital admissions aren't reflective of that compared to Jan/Feb when we had few vaccinated. 

Worst thing Sturgeon did during this (apart from the care home scandal) is come out with zero covid nonsense. It was never going to happen and you only need to look at OZ/NZ to see the fuck up that is turning out to be.  Slow vaccine role out and a lot more vaccine sceptics than over here which isn't going to end well. 

Nightclubs etc opening up was always going to lead to a big surge in cases, the SG knew this, not sure they are overly concerned. 

Furlough ended in a couple of weeks means they;ll have nowhere near the same powers to lockdown here as they had before. 

I think our governments have probably reached a consensus of what they consider an acceptable risk to be. At the current rate that's about 30-40,000 deaths a year. That figure might go up a wee bit before it starts to come down again? Time will tell. That's a figure we may just have to live with. Those of us who don't die that is.

[Lamia]

21 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

 

Can't live stop start lives forever. Cases are high, however hospital admissions aren't reflective of that compared to Jan/Feb when we had few vaccinated. 

 

Wait a few weeks. Yes they won't be proportionately as high but.....

[Lamia]

6 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I think our governments have probably reached a consensus of what they consider an acceptable risk to be. At the current rate that's about 30-40,000 deaths a year. That figure might go up a wee bit before it starts to come down again? Time will tell. That's a figure we may just have to live with. Those of us who don't die that is.

I am not so sure having listened to Nicola Sturgeon's press conference but again time will tell. If the hospital numbers get too high we are in deep trouble when it comes to the wider health implications

[phart]

16 minutes ago, Squirrelhumper said:

Good bit of herd immunity by time the winter comes. 

They won't say it but given the high % of the population double dunted now (especially in over 40s) then i think they are happy just to ride this out. 

Can't live stop start lives forever. Cases are high, however hospital admissions aren't reflective of that compared to Jan/Feb when we had few vaccinated. 

Worst thing Sturgeon did during this (apart from the care home scandal) is come out with zero covid nonsense. We ARE going to have to live with this, we can't shut down every year when there's an outbreak. 

 Zero Covid was never going to happen and you only need to look at OZ/NZ to see the fuck up that is turning out to be.  Slow vaccine roll out and a lot more vaccine sceptics than over here which isn't going to end well. 

Nightclubs etc opening up was always going to lead to a big surge in cases, the SG knew this, not sure they are overly concerned. 

Furlough ended in a couple of weeks means they;ll have nowhere near the same powers to lockdown here as they had before. 

NZ isn't a busted flush yet (Australia might be), in fact i've been following the tracing of their case and it's incredible what they've managed to do.