Coronavirus

[Orraloon]

8 minutes ago, biffer said:

The Israeli 33% figure compares to a 52% figure in the trials

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217

Obviously needs further confirmation over time.

Those two numbers are measures of different things.

The 52% figure is from the Pfizer phase 3 clinical trials. I can't remember the exact timescale for that 52% number, but it was more than the 14 days used in the Israeli study. The Pfizer study also noted that divergence didn't start until about 12 days, so 14 days is far too early to expect a high level of protection. The Pfizer study also measured only symptomatic cases. The Israeli study included asymptomatic cases. In fact they included mainly asymptomatic cases and mild cases, as the age group chosen and the size of the study (only 2000) meant that they couldn't make any conclusions about severe or critical disease.

The fact they got a number as high as 33% should be seen as really good news because that particular outcome had not been measured up to that point. 33% after 14 days for mild and asymptomatic cases is much higher than most would have expected.

As I said, I still expect the real world numbers to turn out to be lower than the clinical trials. But I haven't see any data for that yet. 

[Orraloon]

49 minutes ago, biffer said:

The Israeli 33% figure compares to a 52% figure in the trials

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n217

Obviously needs further confirmation over time.

OK just read a bit more about that link.

That is a different study from the one I mentioned in the previous post. But this could be even better news. This study is of 400,000 people, all of them over 60. The average age in the other study that I mentioned was 31. They got the same 33% result after 14 days. Again they are counting all positive cases and not just symptomatic cases, so it's not really comparable to the Pfizer 52% result, as they are measuring different things.

One possible negative is that they saw no change in that number after 17 days. The study continues, more data required.

This study also doesn't make any conclusions about the vaccines effect on severe and critical disease. We should be getting more information about that soon.

 

[Lamia]

4 hours ago, biffer said:

There have been four million confirmed cases in the UK, so probably double that in actual infections. If there have been a few hundred cases of severe organ damage then your odds are low of it happening to you. 

A few hundred - where is your evidence of that. I was under the impression that we didn't have information on the impact yet?

 

I have seen numbers like one in 10 having long term health issues but the definition of that is quite loose. I do however get the impression that long term issues are not insignificant. Some issues will be more significant than others but there seem to be many who struggle to recover fully.

[phart]

[biffer]

5 hours ago, Lamia said:

A few hundred - where is your evidence of that. I was under the impression that we didn't have information on the impact yet?

 

I have seen numbers like one in 10 having long term health issues but the definition of that is quite loose. I do however get the impression that long term issues are not insignificant. Some issues will be more significant than others but there seem to be many who struggle to recover fully.

That would mean there are currently 600,000 people with long term health issues. I don't the nk there's evidence for that

[Lamia]

2 hours ago, biffer said:

That would mean there are currently 600,000 people with long term health issues. I don't the nk there's evidence for that

As I said I don't know but neither is there evidence there are a few hundred. Given I know very few people personally who have had Covid, around 5 in fact and one of them is in this position I think it will be more than a few hundred.

And in fact it might turn out to be more because I don't know how well they are all recovering.

Edited February 12, 2021 by Lamia

[Denny’s Yard]

5 hours ago, Lamia said:

As I said I don't know but neither is there evidence there are a few hundred. Given I know very few people personally who have had Covid, around 5 in fact and one of them is in this position I think it will be more than a few hundred.

And in fact it might turn out to be more because I don't know how well they are all recovering.

I know around 50 or so people who have had COVID and none of them have, to my knowledge, long term health issues.

Of course, this proves nothing except that anecdotal evidence is not particularly reliable.

[phart]

As is usual with these sort of things we need more data.

For example we have Alibi i think on here that had lung issues which took a while to resolve and also someone I know (i've played WoW with them for 5 years) got it back in April and has 30% lung capacity at the moment. He actually got the vaccine 9 days before his 93 year old gran. I think he might have had health issues before though never wanted to ask.

[Lamia]

6 hours ago, Denny’s Yard said:

I know around 50 or so people who have had COVID and none of them have, to my knowledge, long term health issues.

Of course, this proves nothing except that anecdotal evidence is not particularly reliable.

I know it doesn't which was what I was trying to say. You cannot simply say a few hundred!

[Lamia]

Thinking about it I don't think I know 50 people well enough to know if they have had Covid never mind whether they are still suffering health issues. 😳😆

[biffer]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees-only-544-covid-infections-among-523000-fully-vaccinated-israelis/

Dominant strain in Israel is the B117 variant first found in Kent.

[phart]

I've been trying to find out what "severe" means.

it was 15 hospitalisations, categoried into mild medium and severe or something like that. No deaths.

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, biffer said:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees-only-544-covid-infections-among-523000-fully-vaccinated-israelis/

Dominant strain in Israel is the B117 variant first found in Kent.

Pretty impressive, I would say.

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, phart said:

I've been trying to find out what "severe" means.

it was 15 hospitalisations, categoried into mild medium and severe or something like that. No deaths.

I'm not sure if it means the same in the Israel health care system but in the UK I think it's about whether a patient has been diagnosed with a pneumonia type illness. I can vaguely remember reading something about a technical clinical definition about the level of impact on a patient's breathing. It was quite technical, but at the end it said a good rule of thumb is that if a patient requires oxygen they tend to be categorised as "severe" then if they go on to need assisted breathing they are classed as "critical".

[Orraloon]

4 hours ago, biffer said:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees-only-544-covid-infections-among-523000-fully-vaccinated-israelis/

Dominant strain in Israel is the B117 variant first found in Kent.

The thing that stands out to me is how few infections they had. I don't know how many of the people were tested, or if they even looked for asymptomatic cases, though? This the problem, when all we get is press announcements without linking to the actual study itself. 

But in their submissions for approval, Pfizer made no claims about about the vaccine's effectiveness in prevention of transmission of infection. If the levels of infection really are that low, then this is really good news.

[Orraloon]

17 hours ago, Lamia said:

As I said I don't know but neither is there evidence there are a few hundred. Given I know very few people personally who have had Covid, around 5 in fact and one of them is in this position I think it will be more than a few hundred.

And in fact it might turn out to be more because I don't know how well they are all recovering.

Not so good news.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19088414.long-covid-account-20-coronavirus-cases-immunologist-says/

 

[phart]

Last April, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced he had secured a million doses of hydroxychloroquine from Israel at no cost to the state.

 

The Republican and close ally of, at that time, President Donald Trump hosted a roundtable with doctors who supported the use of the drug. The discussion came despite very little and often anecdotal evidence that hydroxychloroquine was beneficial in the fight against COVID-19.

"I've reached out to physicians and just asked, 'Hey, what’s the deal with this? Should we get more of it?'" DeSantis told journalists at the meeting. "We want to, obviously, give patients the opportunity to have a recovery."

E.W. Scripps Co.

Dr. Norman Gaylis says some lupus and rheumatoid arthritis patients were unable to secure doses of hydroxychloroquine after states sought to bolster supplies of the drug.

The promotion by governors like DeSantis and the former president quickly created a run on the treatment, frustrating Florida rheumatologists.

"It was a real problem," said Dr. Norman Gaylis, a Florida physician with the American College of Rheumatology. "We don't have enough time in the day to answer how much it frustrates me with the way this has been handled."

https://www.wptv.com/rebound/whats-florida-doing-with-thousands-of-hydroxychloroquine-doses

Really grinds your gears...

 

"My guess is the majority hydroxychloroquine sitting in states' storage facilities are basically going to end up being thrown away," Gaylis said.

Some states indeed continue to sit on large supplies of the medicine, which has a two-year shelf life. Oregon has yet to use any of its 50,000 tablets. Texas has about 92% of its million doses remaining. Both are working to find a use. Oklahoma officials are trying to return about $2 million of the pills to their supplier.

Edited February 13, 2021 by phart

[Lamia]

It seems we have plateaued. I hope this vaccine does start to make a difference on transmission especially if we are going to start opening schools up 🤨

[AlfieMoon]

26 minutes ago, Lamia said:

It seems we have plateaued. I hope this vaccine does start to make a difference on transmission especially if we are going to start opening schools up 🤨

Plateaued in sense of daily vaccine numbers? 

[Lamia]

2 minutes ago, AlfieMoon said:

Plateaued in sense of daily vaccine numbers? 

No, new infections

[phart]

Yeah about 900 infections a day roughly.

 

[Lamia]

22 minutes ago, phart said:

Yeah about 900 infections a day roughly.

 

Wales seem to have managed to get their cases down further than we have. I know they went into lockdown sooner but we are now plateauing at a higher level with pretty much the same restrictions. 

So much is riding on this vaccine!

[phart]

 

[Lamia]

I should really stop reading and thinking too much, now I am thinking about what is going to happen as we go down the age groups with the vaccine rollout. If the vaccine does stop spread to some extent then we really need a high level of take-up across the population but as we go down the age groups take up will start to reduce. If we get low take up in the younger age groups who probably mix with more people (sweeping generalisation I know) and the virus continues to spread, new variants will develop and we will be back to square one. I know you can tweak the vaccines but to do that and roll it out takes time.

I think I am getting to the point of throwing the towel in! 😳 Being the ultimate pessimist isn't much fun! 😪

PS Should we really be starting to open schools when the new daily positive test numbers seem to have levelled off! It looks like they are going ahead though when I thought they were reconsidering! I know the impact on kids but I don't want to have gone through all this for nothing!

[fringo]

17 hours ago, Lamia said:

I should really stop reading and thinking too much, now I am thinking about what is going to happen as we go down the age groups with the vaccine rollout. If the vaccine does stop spread to some extent then we really need a high level of take-up across the population but as we go down the age groups take up will start to reduce. If we get low take up in the younger age groups who probably mix with more people (sweeping generalisation I know) and the virus continues to spread, new variants will develop and we will be back to square one. I know you can tweak the vaccines but to do that and roll it out takes time.

I think I am getting to the point of throwing the towel in! 😳 Being the ultimate pessimist isn't much fun! 😪

PS Should we really be starting to open schools when the new daily positive test numbers seem to have levelled off! It looks like they are going ahead though when I thought they were reconsidering! I know the impact on kids but I don't want to have gone through all this for nothing!

That's my single biggest concern in terms of "easing the lockdown" which I think will lead to further outbreaks.

As the vaccine roll out kicks in we still need a slightly longer all round lockdown otherwise we'll get a 3rd surge and more mid to long term impact on health and the economy. Nip it the bud now will have a better long term impact for everyone IMO.