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10 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

I know you get a lot of self-entertainment out of your trolling - and more than a few bites - but maybe you should choose your topic more carefully.

When there’s nearly 100,000 dead in the UK and folk losing loved ones, worried about loved ones and facing all sorts of struggles - maybe ask yourself if it’s really all about you getting your 2 minutes of giggling to yourself. 
 

 

It's not killed anyone 

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9 hours ago, JohnWh said:

Here's our potty mouth pal's insights from Elgin again 

 

Now admittedly it isn't a Youtube video by someone with no qualifications in the subject they're speaking about but it is a fully referenced mortaility data analysis for Decemeber. The one slight problem being to understand it you need to have spent a considerable time learning a few branches of mathematics. 

The coronavirus (COVID-19) was the leading cause of death in December 2020 for the second consecutive month in both England (accounting for 20.8% of all deaths registered in December) and in Wales (27.4% of all deaths); dementia and Alzheimer's disease was the second leading cause of death in both countries, with COVID-19 accounting for more than double the second leading cause in England and more than triple in Wales.

Edited by phart
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There is no doubt that changing the length of time between doses is a bit of a gamble. There isn't enough data to know how much of a gamble it is, and only time will tell.

I'm still a bit concerned that we might start running out of vaccine when the time comes to administer the second doses in 10 to 12 weeks after the first. It's one of the reasons why it might appear that NHS Scotland is holding onto a "stock" of vaccine. They want to have a wee bit of a buffer in case the supply dries up a bit when it comes time to start administering 2nd doses. Although it does appear that both Pfizer and AZ are supplying at a decent rate now. It's hard to know for sure though as the UK gov have decided that they have to keep the delivery schedules top secret. I'm not sure why that is?

 

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54 minutes ago, phart said:

more on single dose.

 

 

 

I still haven't learned how to read twitterese (to me it just seems to jump about all over the place between subjects which I find impossible to follow) but I had a look at that Guardian article and this bit jumped out at me.

"Questions over the effectiveness of the vaccine were raised amid reports that thousands of Israelis were still becoming sick after receiving the vaccine, although the public health services head, Sharon Alroy-Preis, said that in most cases this was because the individuals had not built up sufficient antibodies after being inoculated before being exposed to the virus."

This takes me back to what I mentioned earlier about too many folk thinking that vaccines give them immunity. They don't. They reduce the risk of infection and hopefully reduce the risk and severity of disease for those who still become infected even after being vaccinated. Loads of folk will still become infected after they have been vaccinated. The numbers should be reduced significantly after two doses but a lot folk will still get infected after even two doses. 

I would like to see the current restrictions kept in place well into this year until at least 60% of the population have been vaccinated with two doses. I think the government is putting too much emphasis on how well these vaccines are going to work. They are giving people false hope that everything is going to be OK now that we have vaccines to roll out.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

There is no doubt that changing the length of time between doses is a bit of a gamble. There isn't enough data to know how much of a gamble it is, and only time will tell.

I'm still a bit concerned that we might start running out of vaccine when the time comes to administer the second doses in 10 to 12 weeks after the first. It's one of the reasons why it might appear that NHS Scotland is holding onto a "stock" of vaccine. They want to have a wee bit of a buffer in case the supply dries up a bit when it comes time to start administering 2nd doses. Although it does appear that both Pfizer and AZ are supplying at a decent rate now. It's hard to know for sure though as the UK gov have decided that they have to keep the delivery schedules top secret. I'm not sure why that is?

 

One reason speculated about is how all the richer countries are hoarding the vaccine and at some point that might get challenged or changed.

We'll just have to wait and see.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

I still haven't learned how to read twitterese (to me it just seems to jump about all over the place between subjects which I find impossible to follow) but I had a look at that Guardian article and this bit jumped out at me.

"Questions over the effectiveness of the vaccine were raised amid reports that thousands of Israelis were still becoming sick after receiving the vaccine, although the public health services head, Sharon Alroy-Preis, said that in most cases this was because the individuals had not built up sufficient antibodies after being inoculated before being exposed to the virus."

This takes me back to what I mentioned earlier about too many folk thinking that vaccines give them immunity. They don't. They reduce the risk of infection and hopefully reduce the risk and severity of disease for those who still become infected even after being vaccinated. Loads of folk will still become infected after they have been vaccinated. The numbers should be reduced significantly after two doses but a lot folk will still get infected after even two doses. 

I would like to see the current restrictions kept in place well into this year until at least 60% of the population have been vaccinated with two doses. I think the government is putting too much emphasis on how well these vaccines are going to work. They are giving people false hope that everything is going to be OK now that we have vaccines to roll out.

 

 

 

Should be able to just click on this one and scroll down

 

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Here's a response to the Israel study from a doctor who posts on another forum I use. I post this purely out of interest rather than agreeing or disagreeing but some might find it reassuring.

Short version: They looked too soon. Needed to leave it another week.

Longer version:
This study was a case control study, which provides less persuasive data than a randomised controlled trial. You need to be certain that the controls are selected in a way that resembles the elements that matter. You may not even know what all of those factors are. In an RCT of adequate size, that is not a concern, because the unknown factors should be distributed evenly.

Second, I think they looked too soon. The text of the report says: "Then we looked to see what is the daily positivity rate... And we saw that there was no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated until day 14 post-vaccination. But on day 14 post-vaccination, a drop of 33% in positivity was witnessed in the vaccinated group and not in the unvaccinated... this is really good news."

This suggests their primary analysis was on day 14. That is just after the lines separate. A week later it would have been much more convincing. Then after the booster, it jumps to 95%. Highly unlikely if 33% was the first shot ceiling. You can see the lines separate much more with time.

Third, sounds like they were looking at tests alone rather than tests and cases. Doing so captures a larger number, including those who were incubating when they got the shot, and asymptomatic, as well as false positives with old virus. This will dilute any perceived treatment effect. By the time of the second shot, that virus has cleared off and you get a clean treatment effect. In contrast, Pfizer required a PCR test AND characteristic symptoms.

Edited by wee-toon-red
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8 minutes ago, phart said:

Should be able to just click on this one and scroll down

 

Thanks that was much easier.:ok:

Small numbers in the sample but still useful info. Every small bit of data adds to our understanding.

Hopefully the Janssen vaccine gets approved by the end of Feb to add another string to the bow.

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35 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Figured we must be doing ok when Reporting Scotland were back with an exposé on drug deaths this morning.

92 is the 3rd highest daily total in Scotland since the start of the pandemic.

The number of new cases seems to have plateaued, hopefully. They seem to have peaked around 8th Jan. Two weeks after xmas. We are now getting towards two weeks after that peak so hopefully hospital admissions will start to plateau soon, then deaths start to come down about a week after that? That's if we don't get another surge in cases.

 

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1 hour ago, wee-toon-red said:

Here's a response to the Israel study from a doctor who posts on another forum I use. I post this purely out of interest rather than agreeing or disagreeing but some might find it reassuring.



Second, I think they looked too soon. The text of the report says: "Then we looked to see what is the daily positivity rate... And we saw that there was no difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated until day 14 post-vaccination. But on day 14 post-vaccination, a drop of 33% in positivity was witnessed in the vaccinated group and not in the unvaccinated... this is really good news."

This suggests their primary analysis was on day 14. That is just after the lines separate. A week later it would have been much more convincing. Then after the booster, it jumps to 95%. Highly unlikely if 33% was the first shot ceiling. You can see the lines separate much more with time.


 

That bit is pretty much the same as the Pfizer study said that I posted earlier in the thread. Pfizer arrived at their 52% figure by a totally different method though. So, the efficacy could still be above 50%. But as your post says, even at 33% it's still good news.

On 1/19/2021 at 5:14 PM, Orraloon said:

This is from the original paper submitted by BioNTech/Pfizer to the New England Journal of Medicine.

"The cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases over time among placebo and vaccine recipients begins to diverge by 12 days after the first dose, 7 days after the estimated median viral incubation period of 5 days, indicating the early onset of a partially protective effect of immunization. The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen. Nevertheless, in the interval between the first and second doses, the observed vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 was 52%, and in the first 7 days after dose 2, it was 91%, reaching full efficacy against disease with onset at least 7 days after dose 2. Of the 10 cases of severe Covid-19 that were observed after the first dose, only 1 occurred in the vaccine group. This finding is consistent with overall high efficacy against all Covid-19 cases. The severe case split provides preliminary evidence of vaccine-mediated protection against severe disease, alleviating many of the theoretical concerns over vaccine-mediated disease enhancement."

One important thing to mention is that Pfizer's numbers (both the 95% and 52%) are based on symptomatic infections. Those numbers do not take any account of people who might have been infected but are asymptomatic. 

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Another thing that a lot of people might not realise is that Pfizer's 95% efficacy number is based on a fairly small number of cases. The study followed about 37,000 people but out of that number there were only 170 positive cases. 8 of those positive were in the vaccinated group and 162 were in the placebo group. They only include symptomatic cases. 

We only start to really understand how well the vaccine works when we start vaccinating a lot more people. Which basically starts now. We still have loads of stuff to learn about all the different vaccines. And the more different vaccines we have to study the better.

 

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

92 is the 3rd highest daily total in Scotland since the start of the pandemic.

The number of new cases seems to have plateaued, hopefully. They seem to have peaked around 8th Jan. Two weeks after xmas. We are now getting towards two weeks after that peak so hopefully hospital admissions will start to plateau soon, then deaths start to come down about a week after that? That's if we don't get another surge in cases.

 

I remember being shocked when we had a death total of about 24 per day, and yet you still have utter morons thinking it’s fake. Modern society really does have some draw backs. People believe a YouTube or a Facebook twat over stats, evidence etc

Edited by kumnio
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