Coronavirus

[Orraloon]

I think they are vastly overestimating the levels of compliance. They are basing this on polls asking people how they are behaving. They can't possibly be so ignorant that they don't realise that people tell lies. Can they?

One poll (the one that phart posted a few days ago) suggests that only about 20% of the population are complying when they suspect that they have the virus. That means only about 20% of suspected cases are totally self isolating and getting tested. If that number is anywhere near correct then I find it impossible to believe that the levels of compliance with other rules is anywhere near as good as the report is suggesting.

I also have eyes in my head. Some people might think that they are complying, but a huge amount of them are not.

[phart]

10 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I think they are vastly overestimating the levels of compliance. They are basing this on polls asking people how they are behaving. They can't possibly be so ignorant that they don't realise that people tell lies. Can they?

One poll (the one that phart posted a few days ago) suggests that only about 20% of the population are complying when they suspect that they have the virus. That means only about 20% of suspected cases are totally self isolating and getting tested. If that number is anywhere near correct then I find it impossible to believe that the levels of compliance with other rules is anywhere near as good as the report is suggesting.

I also have eyes in my head. Some people might think that they are complying, but a huge amount of them are not.

Also using the stick and not the carrot to enforce compliance is badly thought out imo.

Financial help for those isolating/quarantining and not using huge fines against folk who don't would help. If you need to work or you go broke then that makes your behaviour follow the pattern of not getting tested/isolating etc. It's a piece of piss if you can work from home , it's a nightmare if you can't or your business/financial well-being is going tits up.

Teachers getting fucked as well (you might not be that sympathetic to that though )

[aaid]

13 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I think they are vastly overestimating the levels of compliance. They are basing this on polls asking people how they are behaving. They can't possibly be so ignorant that they don't realise that people tell lies. Can they?

One poll (the one that phart posted a few days ago) suggests that only about 20% of the population are complying when they suspect that they have the virus. That means only about 20% of suspected cases are totally self isolating and getting tested. If that number is anywhere near correct then I find it impossible to believe that the levels of compliance with other rules is anywhere near as good as the report is suggesting.

I also have eyes in my head. Some people might think that they are complying, but a huge amount of them are not.

I doubt they’ll be relying solely on surveys asking if people have been a good boy or not. 

I remember earlier in the year the UKG made a lot of data showing things like public transport usage, traffic and sat nav data to measure how the initial lockdown was going. 

I’d also point out that by its very nature noncompliance is a lot more obvious or noticeable than compliance.  

Thats the case in general with any measure but in this specific circumstance where people are generally being asked to avoid others, you won’t really see those that are following the rules. 

[phart]

England but i can't find Scottish equivalent.

[Orraloon]

8 minutes ago, phart said:

Also using the stick and not the carrot to enforce compliance is badly thought out imo.

Financial help for those isolating/quarantining and not using huge fines against folk who don't would help. If you need to work or you go broke then that makes your behaviour follow the pattern of not getting tested/isolating etc. It's a piece of piss if you can work from home , it's a nightmare if you can't or your business/financial well-being is going tits up.

Teachers getting fucked as well (you might not be that sympathetic to that though )

Some of my best mates are teachers.  

I agree that the carrot is almost non existent and what little stick there is, is almost totally ineffectual in the overall scheme of things.

 

[Mox]

23 minutes ago, phart said:

England but i can't find Scottish equivalent.

Is that the equivalent? Doesn't seem much justification to me other than some folk who tested positive were in a pub/restaurant etc at some stage.

[ThistleWhistle]

1 hour ago, phart said:

England but i can't find Scottish equivalent.

Just need folk to stop doing 'Other' stuff and we'd have this thing sorted! 

[phart]

1 hour ago, Mox said:

Is that the equivalent? Doesn't seem much justification to me other than some folk who tested positive were in a pub/restaurant etc at some stage.

The one i posted is from England Track and Trace data, that's a page from the report i linked. Not sure what the details of the justification is in Scotland beyond what is posted in the report.

Just noting that in contact tracing eating out is the largest single activity named. Loads of caveats as it doens't mean they were infected doing it, just where most contacts were. There's other circumstancial evidence where folk who eat out were twice as likely to be affected but that might be due to being less risk adverse and the infections happen elsewhere.

So no idea if it's equivalent. I personally think eating out (inside) amongst strangers can be high risk, but very variable depending on set up. I'm a pleb though so I wouldn't put much weight on my opinion on public health or epidemology though

[Dave78]

23 hours ago, aaid said:

I think a lot of people who don’t have an IT background would be surprised at the extent to which key line of business applications are either built entirely on excel or use it as a key component. 

When I worked for a tier one IB, of other 20000 registered applications there were a good few thousand which were essentially excel spreadsheets with a bit of VBA on top.  They had an ongoing programme to replace these but it’s easier said than done. 

I think there’s a fair bit of spin going on here from people who don’t really know the details.   They had to build a system from scratch, very quickly and under serious pressure.  

As I understand it, they use excel to transfer data from wherever it is the local data is collected and collated and is then transferred into the central system. 

Excel actually makes a lot of sense in those situations, it’s a tool that’s readily available, which people are familiar with and will have and is well understood.  You wouldn’t want to rely on it in the long term for good reasons around security and maintainability but in the short term and in a limited scope and shelf life I can understand why they’ve done it this way. 

That said, the system was developed and rolled out when the number of cases was very low and the 64k row restriction in excel is *very* well known. It sounds very much like the testing has been pretty poor. 

Move quickly and break things isn’t a great approach when breaking things puts people’s lives at risk. 

 

 

I'm currently doing a Windows 10 upgrade contract in a US investment bank. The place pretty much runs on Excel.

 

3 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I think they are vastly overestimating the levels of compliance. They are basing this on polls asking people how they are behaving. They can't possibly be so ignorant that they don't realise that people tell lies. Can they?

One poll (the one that phart posted a few days ago) suggests that only about 20% of the population are complying when they suspect that they have the virus. That means only about 20% of suspected cases are totally self isolating and getting tested. If that number is anywhere near correct then I find it impossible to believe that the levels of compliance with other rules is anywhere near as good as the report is suggesting.

I also have eyes in my head. Some people might think that they are complying, but a huge amount of them are not.

Over 180 police checkpoints were set up around Ireland today enforcing the restrictions on movement between counties. 7 mile traffic jams apparently.

[DAVIDB46]

Seems to be limited fans at this Portugal v Spain game, guessing ultimately it will just be the uk left with no fans at games. 

[exile]

4 hours ago, phart said:

England but i can't find Scottish equivalent.

 

I think we all should stop doing that dangerous 'other' shit!

 

[exile]

 

Neither graphic (I meant the one above and the earlier post) explicitly includes pubs or nightclubs but surely those must be in there at the riskier end...?

Finally: "going to a bar" makes an appearance:

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2020 by exile

[phart]

2 hours ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Just need folk to stop doing 'Other' stuff and we'd have this thing sorted! 

 

3 minutes ago, exile said:

 

I think we all should stop doing that dangerous 'other' shit!

 

[exile]

13 minutes ago, phart said:

 

OK, OK, I think the charts just posted could hint at what the 'other stuff' might include...

Edited October 7, 2020 by exile

[hampden_loon2878]

i have been taken aback by the reaction on social media regarding the new  measures, she has fecked up, had it been in tandem with the Ruk it would have not beem near so bad but she needs the limelight, big mistake IMO, i suppose it will come down to numbers 

[exile]

12 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

i have been taken aback by the reaction on social media regarding the new  measures, she has fecked up, had it been in tandem with the Ruk it would have not beem near so bad but she needs the limelight, big mistake IMO, i suppose it will come down to numbers 

Bars are being shut all over Europe. Netherlands have asked to use German hospitals. Czech Republic has declared a fresh state of emergency.

But we hear little of these things, in the British media bubble.

If anything it's the UK Govt who is out of line with rest of Europe, slow to react; and even so, they may start to lock down in parts of England soon.

It seems to me only unionists/politicians/media are claiming the FM is acting in order to be in the limelight, or should only do what UK Govt does.

[TDYER63]

15 minutes ago, exile said:

Bars are being shut all over Europe. Netherlands have asked to use German hospitals. Czech Republic has declared a fresh state of emergency.

But we hear little of these things, in the British media bubble.

If anything it's the UK Govt who is out of line with rest of Europe, slow to react; and even so, they may start to lock down in parts of England soon.

It seems to me only unionists/politicians/media are claiming the FM is acting in order to be in the limelight, or should only do what UK Govt does.

I really cannot believe people seriously think NS is risking her job, the SNP being in power, and scottish independence, just to politically point score against Johnson.
And its not just NS making these  decisions on her own. 
What is she supposed to do, keep waiting for Johnson to finish a game of eeny meeny miney mo before taking action ? 
I have no idea if these restrictions will work but with 7 months to the Scottish Elections they certainly aren’t safe,  vote winning decisions. 

[phart]

1 hour ago, exile said:

Bars are being shut all over Europe. Netherlands have asked to use German hospitals. Czech Republic has declared a fresh state of emergency.

But we hear little of these things, in the British media bubble.

If anything it's the UK Govt who is out of line with rest of Europe, slow to react; and even so, they may start to lock down in parts of England soon.

It seems to me only unionists/politicians/media are claiming the FM is acting in order to be in the limelight, or should only do what UK Govt does.

It's the political partisan curse, can only see things in the context of their partisanship. Every problem is a nail when all you have is a hammer.

Shutting the pubs appears to be a worldwide best practice at certain stages of a public health emergency. It's obviously going to be devestating to the industry but there isn't good choices here. It's a mitigation of bad effects. The power to mitigate the effects to the industry lies in WestMinster not Holyrood.

Our society is so inured in political infighting loads of folk are only seeing it through that lens and not the big picture. It's total parochialism.

[ThistleWhistle]

13 hours ago, phart said:

 

Is that the lass from KickAss?

Was being factious but have some sympathy why the hospitality sector are pissed off with eating out only accounting for about a 1/3.  On the other hand it does account for a 1/3 so can see the argument something needed doing - don't think the half way house does them any favours though as now they probably won't get as good support from government as previous full lockdown or the footfall to compensate when it was loosened.    

Would be interesting to see a cost/benefit analyse of the eat out scheme.  

[killiefaetheferry]

I'm slightly surprised it's the whole hospitality industry (that serve bevvy) that's been hit. Surely you could differentiate between pubs and restaurants? I know the lines have blurred in recent years, but it's the 'boozers' with groups mingling at the bar and having 6 people from 6 households at a table that are surely the issue? We ate out 2 weeks ago. A family of 4. Walked to the restaurant. Gave details. Seated at table well spaced out. Staff adhering to all rules. Customers wearing masks when leaving the table. One table reminded. I'd have allowed this type of scenario to continue. Table service only. Only one household. Alcohol only with a meal.

[phart]

5 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Is that the lass from KickAss?

Was being factious but have some sympathy why the hospitality sector are pissed off with eating out only accounting for about a 1/3.  On the other hand it does account for a 1/3 so can see the argument something needed doing - don't think the half way house does them any favours though as now they probably won't get as good support from government as previous full lockdown or the footfall to compensate when it was loosened.    

Would be interesting to see a cost/benefit analyse of the eat out scheme.  

No idea. it wasn't a criticism the gif, just you guys making the same joke so acknowledging it

Aye it's a terrible situation they find themselves in. Should absolutely be helped out more. "Too big to fail" should be kicking in.

If they didn't vote or voted Tory and that sample is just under 2/3rds of the entire voting public, the cunt in me is just staring at them thinking should i remind them about the numerous quotes about non-participation in politics.

 

[TDYER63]

14 minutes ago, killiefaetheferry said:

I'm slightly surprised it's the whole hospitality industry (that serve bevvy) that's been hit. Surely you could differentiate between pubs and restaurants? I know the lines have blurred in recent years, but it's the 'boozers' with groups mingling at the bar and having 6 people from 6 households at a table that are surely the issue? We ate out 2 weeks ago. A family of 4. Walked to the restaurant. Gave details. Seated at table well spaced out. Staff adhering to all rules. Customers wearing masks when leaving the table. One table reminded. I'd have allowed this type of scenario to continue. Table service only. Only one household. Alcohol only with a meal.

I said the same yesterday to a colleague but I think the problem really is the blurring of the lines. Most pubs sell food these days so it would be hard to differentiate. I totally agree though that there seems very little ‘risk’ in actual restaurants. Out of interest, can actual hotels sell alcohol with food ? 

[thplinth]

2 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

i have been taken aback by the reaction on social media regarding the new  measures, she has fecked up, had it been in tandem with the Ruk it would have not beem near so bad but she needs the limelight, big mistake IMO, i suppose it will come down to numbers 

It will certainly be interesting if England does not follow suit and keeps its pubs and restaurants etc open.

If the lockdown then does not produce the results hoped for versus England the pressure will become immense.  The absolute worse case is they double down on it hoping it will eventually work, it doesn't and and then weeks / months later there is a humiliating climb down after brutalizing small businesses etc. And then we have the elections... 

Bars are still open in the Czech Republic despite the new state of emergency.  https://jamesjoyceprague.cz/  And they are raging with it like never before. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/ Maybe suggests a new or modified strategy because if you look at the bar chart of daily new cases the little bump to the left was when they went into full lockdown the first time!

If I was Johnson I'd be strongly tempted not to follow suit but who knows what he'll do. I am not convinced he does himself. 

[phart]

Hospital Beds Filling, Bars Closing With Nearly All European Countries At Critical Coronavirus Threshold

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/10/07/hospital-beds-filling-bars-closing-with-nearly-all-european-countries-at-critical-coronavirus-threshold/#25a0950baa9e

Coronavirus: How countries in Europe are taking different measures to try to curb pandemic

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-countries-in-europe-are-taking-different-measures-to-try-to-curb-pandemic-12098359

A run down of how different countries are dealing with it in Europe from articles written in the last day.

 

[hampden_loon2878]

19 minutes ago, thplinth said:

It will certainly be interesting if England does not follow suit and keeps its pubs and restaurants etc open.

If the lockdown then does not produce the results hoped for versus England the pressure will become immense.  The absolute worse case is they double down on it hoping it will eventually work, it doesn't and and then weeks / months later there is a humiliating climb down after brutalizing small businesses etc. And then we have the elections... 

Bars are still open in the Czech Republic despite the new state of emergency.  https://jamesjoyceprague.cz/  And they are raging with it like never before. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/ Maybe suggests a new or modified strategy because if you look at the bar chart of daily new cases the little bump to the left was when they went into full lockdown the first time!

If I was Johnson I'd be strongly tempted not to follow suit but who knows what he'll do. I am not convinced he does himself. 

My social media feed is full of petitions for sturgeon to resign hana, i cant speak for other place but up here folk are raging