Coronavirus

[ger intae them]

A deficit in the preceding period? That is one theory. I am unsure.

 

[kiltedlegs]

28 minutes ago, aaid said:

So what have the hundreds of thousands of excess deaths been caused by then? 

Incorrectly recorded and false positives.   Stats could be wrong. 

 

 

I'm still on the fence but I m veering towards it being mostly harmless and asytompatic.   Certainly not worried. 

 

Still wearing a mask in supermarkets and buses though 

Edited September 11, 2020 by kiltedlegs

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, kiltedlegs said:

Incorrectly recorded and false positives.   Stats could be wrong.

You're either dead or your not, you can't be a false positive death unless you believe in resurrection. 

From March unto August there were over 60000 more deaths in the UK that would normally die during that period - based on the fiver year average.

What did they die off or do you think they didn't die?

[kiltedlegs]

Covid being put on death cirtificates when it's not the only cause of death. 

 

[Och Aye]

Please speak to someone who worked in a hospital. Ask them what it was like during March, April and May. 

[kiltedlegs]

2 minutes ago, Och Aye said:

Please speak to someone who worked in a hospital. Ask them what it was like during March, April and May. 

Empty was it? 

[aaid]

24 minutes ago, kiltedlegs said:

Covid being put on death cirtificates when it's not the only cause of death. 

 

So are you saying that without COVID they would've died anyway?

*obviously everyone will die eventually, so by which I mean died at the same time.

[kiltedlegs]

6 minutes ago, aaid said:

So are you saying that without COVID they would've died anyway?

*obviously everyone will die eventually, so by which I mean died at the same time.

It's a little more complicated but clearly there is a mass of people (smart people not just hippys) that think this virus is bordering on harmless.    just decide for yourself. 

[phart]

1 hour ago, kiltedlegs said:

Leaflet from the rally.  I know ppl are closed minded and just think it kills no matter, but just consider for a min, what if you're wrong. 

Got to love information that eschews references as a claim for "truth" in favour of writing FACT in a larger font size and a different colour. I know it's a core epistemological problem, which method is the best way to process reality. 

Man i feel like such a fool, If i knew the claims were preceded by fact written in red ,2 font sizes up, and in upper-case, I wouldn't have been so quick to dismiss them as the witterings of low information idiots. Got egg on my face here.

[aaid]

12 minutes ago, kiltedlegs said:

It's a little more complicated but clearly there is a mass of people (smart people not just hippys) that think this virus is bordering on harmless.    just decide for yourself. 

Come on, it's not complicated.  You're the one that's suggesting it's harmless.  Back up your assertions  

60000 more people in the UK have died in the UK than would normally have done, they must have died of something or is it just a coincidence that there's a global pandemic right now and we've an unprecedented level of excess deaths  

The reason why the fatality rate wasn't a lot lot higher was because of the severe restrictions put in place to reduce transmission.  Had these been put in place earlier, then no doubt it would have been lower.

[aaid]

1 minute ago, phart said:

Got to love information that eschews references as a claim for "truth" in favour of writing FACT in a larger font size and a different colour. I know it's a core epistemological problem, which method is the best way to process reality. 

Man i feel like such a fool, If i knew the claims were preceded by fact written in red ,2 font sizes up, and in upper-case, I wouldn't have been so quick to dismiss them as the witterings of low information idiots. Got egg on my face here.

They've gone the full Rafa Benitez with that flyer. 

[phart]

Now the lockdown angle is certainly arguable with the information we have now. Some scientists who advised lockdown are now admitting they would do things differently if they knew then what they know now. I recorded this earlier in the thread.

[phart]

Just now, aaid said:

They've gone the full Rafa Benitez with that flyer. 

A lot of folk were also rubbishing Professor Fergusons models, however now it's ran on a bit the model has succesfully predicted a lot of things. The problem was the people rubbishing it were mathematically illiterate and were using worst case scenario which had no real world analogue cause measures were taken everywhere at some level and then trying to graft that onto what happened in the real world.

Once you get older you realise you can't reason someone out of a positon they didn't reason themselves into.

[kiltedlegs]

18 minutes ago, aaid said:

Come on, it's not complicated.  You're the one that's suggesting it's harmless.  Back up your assertions  

60000 more people in the UK have died in the UK than would normally have done, they must have died of something or is it just a coincidence that there's a global pandemic right now and we've an unprecedented level of excess deaths  

The reason why the fatality rate wasn't a lot lot higher was because of the severe restrictions put in place to reduce transmission.  Had these been put in place earlier, then no doubt it would have been lower.

face palm

[phart]

1 hour ago, ger intae them said:

A deficit in the preceding period? That is one theory. I am unsure.

 

Cites Michael Levit first who is a nobel prize winning chemist and who also said Israel would have no more than 10 deaths, the USA would be finished with Corona by end of August and have no more than 170,000 deaths and a host of other failed predictions.

Let's ask Barack  Obama about the Coronavirus he has a nobel prize too. How about Bob Dylan what is his views on the epidemological implications of it?

That's 1 minute into a 37 minute video. A monetised youtube video by the way! No wonder it's 37 mins long.

Less than 24 hours ago

"Israel's cabinet is to consider whether to impose a nationwide lockdown, as the country struggles to halt a steep rise in coronavirus infections.

The health ministry reported 3,904 new cases on Wednesday, a new daily record that brought the total to 142,582. The death toll also rose by 11 to 1,054."

 

FACT  Levitt said that fears in Israel over the coronavirus were disproportionate to the threat, and that the number of cases in the country was uncertain due to reporting variances. "I will be surprised if the number of deaths in Israel surpasses 10," he said, adding that the Jewish state was "not on the world map for the disease."

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by phart

[phart]

“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.”

Richard Feynman

 

Edited September 11, 2020 by phart

[Squirrelhumper]

2 hours ago, kiltedlegs said:

Leaflet from the rally.  I know ppl are closed minded and just think it kills no matter, but just consider for a min, what if you're wrong. 

Moon howlers.

 

[TDYER63]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

Come on, it's not complicated.  You're the one that's suggesting it's harmless.  Back up your assertions  

60000 more people in the UK have died in the UK than would normally have done, they must have died of something or is it just a coincidence that there's a global pandemic right now and we've an unprecedented level of excess deaths  

The reason why the fatality rate wasn't a lot lot higher was because of the severe restrictions put in place to reduce transmission.  Had these been put in place earlier, then no doubt it would have been lower.

There was a conversation on Jeremy Vine the other day about whether the restrictions being imposed are a bigger killer than the actual virus. He had 2 ‘experts’ on putting their respective cases forward.
Whilst his points were interesting enough, the guy who was criticising the restrictions and saying this is all a massive over reaction just could not provide any reasonable explanation for the excess deaths , which really is the crux of it.

He was saying the excess deaths could be due to suicides and people not being seen for things like cancer, but IMO that really doesn't make sense as the really high number of excess deaths took place just a few weeks after lockdown, it just does not add up that there would be a high number of suicides such a short time after lockdown, nor would there be such a large amount of people dying due to appointments or operations being delayed a couple of weeks. 
You just cannot get away from the excess deaths figure. 
Of course the folk tweeting into the show were mainly the ‘angry from Manchester’ brigade appalled at their liberties being withdrawn. One guy said he may as well be dead as he was a sociable person and he could not do any of the things he was used to doing. 

Some people  need to take a good look at themselves. There are young and elderly people living every day with all sorts of serious disabilities and illnesses that provide them with a poor quality of life , but they fight on as they would still rather be alive.
Yet we have selfish individuals that bleat on about ‘their rights ‘ as they need to book a table at a pub or need to wear a mask on a train. 

There is an understandable concern about job losses which cannot be ignored as this will have a big impact, and I have to give the UK government credit for the furlough scheme. But just allowing things to go back to normal, especially as winter approaches, would be a kamikaze approach, it beggars belief there are people who think this way. 
 

 

[ParisInAKilt]

It’s a bit more than having to book a table at the pub and having to wear a mask in public, of course the media will promote these complaints to trivialise legitimate concerns regarding lockdowns etc. 

Not saying lockdowns aren’t necessary, I don’t know enough about covid to form an opinion at the moment, probably never will. 

[TDYER63]

8 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

It’s a bit more than having to book a table at the pub and having to wear a mask in public, of course the media will promote these complaints to trivialise legitimate concerns regarding lockdowns etc. 

Not saying lockdowns aren’t necessary, I don’t know enough about covid to form an opinion at the moment, probably never will. 

I am sorry but its not just the media promoting this , my own personal experience is that the people complaining the loudest is over trivial things.

Of course there are legitimate concerns, and the radio show did raise these, as I said the bloke had some interesting points. As I said the job losses is going to be horrendous, but things are getting moved on a bit . You can do a lot more now than you could 2 months ago . I dont think any government is deliberately trying to restrict business and people’s freedom. 

[ParisInAKilt]

7 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I am sorry but its not just the media promoting this , my own personal experience is that the people complaining the loudest is over trivial things.

Of course there are legitimate concerns, and the radio show did raise these, as I said the bloke had some interesting points. As I said the job losses is going to be horrendous, but things are getting moved on a bit . You can do a lot more now than you could 2 months ago . I dont think any government is deliberately trying to restrict business and people’s freedom. 

I know it’s not just the media, I meant they are very good at promoting certain opinions from the public to either discredit or promote ideas. 

 

[phart]

There's no "right" answer. Lockdown fucks things up and the virus kills people.

As i've said numerous times glad i'm not the one having to pick where we draw a line to stand.

[phart]

It's also not like it came out a blue clear sky either. Books like spillover by David Quammen and niche esoteric texts have been saying this was a case of "when not if" it was going to happen. No one decided prevention was better than cure. As Teddy Atlas says you pay now or pay later. Everyone decided to pay later and here we are.

Folk start with the principle they want to do what they want to do then the brain does all the rationalisation for them, again this has been known for ever, in fact one of my favourite sites and one i've linked on here for over a decade covers all this "you're not so smart"

[kiltedlegs]

34 minutes ago, phart said:

There's no "right" answer. Lockdown fucks things up and the virus kills people.

As i've said numerous times glad i'm not the one having to pick where we draw a line to stand.

Well that's the point.  Statistically no one has died from it. 

[phart]

12 minutes ago, kiltedlegs said:

Well that's the point.  Statistically no one has died from it. 

No one dies from AIDS either it's all pneumonia etc. No one dies from falling it's the sudden stop.

That's why this is a biology problem and not an English problem.

You seem unable to process causation which i thought was universal in humans, that renders you incapable of grasping the problem. Can you get someone to paint a spot on your forehead then show you a mirror and record what happens? I'd be interested to see that.

Edited September 11, 2020 by phart