Coronavirus

[aaid]

Long listen but a fascinating dissection of Cumming's statement.

https://www.ft.com/video/e82b5a00-3ad5-4d2c-9703-ff14942aa5b1

 

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, beardy said:

It's not 7 deaths per million, it is 7 deaths total. 

Point still stands, who knows whether or not that's too high without context.  Maybe one is too high.

[beardy]

.

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by beardy
Bed time 😴

[Ally Bongo]

[phart]

There has to be application of the golden mean though. Sure not all factors can be calculated but "Dit que le mieux est l'ennemi du bien" striving for perfection of accuracy till making a judgement isn't good practice either if we're following established philosophical principles.

The UK numbers are shockingly bad comparatively. Unfotunately predictably so as a look back at this thread itself shows. It's a question of how bad? Not is it bad?

[phart]

On 3/20/2020 at 5:21 PM, exile said:

Have people seen this. Can anyone comment and verify if it's roughly right lines?

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

• It emphasises the need to act fast
• It highlights that even if you personally don't fall foul of the virus, anyone needing hospital treatment could be in trouble
• If you were fighting the actual Nazis, you wouldn't just let them take over the continent, on the basis you could fight back later; no, you'd fight them every inch of the way.

 

On 3/20/2020 at 7:32 PM, fringo said:

Just saw this on facebook.

 

 

On 3/21/2020 at 11:07 AM, phart said:

It's also worrying that this is getting said about Italy who have so far implemented the most stringent policies in europe for containment.

 

 

On 3/21/2020 at 7:29 PM, phart said:

fucking grim still a couple of days lag for the quarantine, our death curve (UK) os trending higher than Italy's at the same point as well, which doesn't bode well, they have twice the ICU capacity per capita as well.

 

The Article thplinth was talking about and posts from 2 months ago.

[aaid]

30 minutes ago, phart said:

There has to be application of the golden mean though. Sure not all factors can be calculated but "Dit que le mieux est l'ennemi du bien" striving for perfection of accuracy till making a judgement isn't good practice either if we're following established philosophical principles.

The UK numbers are shockingly bad comparatively. Unfotunately predictably so as a look back at this thread itself shows. It's a question of how bad? Not is it bad?

 

There's no shadow of a doubt they are bad.   The question though is what would good have looked like, i.e. given all the relevant facts about the disease, how it spreads, who are the most vulnerable and then how does all that relate to the wider UK and to Scotland, if the government - or governments - were right on every single decision, took it at the right time and implemented those successfully, what the was the baseline level of infections and deaths you'd expect.   

I don't think we are anywhere near knowing that - particularly the detailed pathology of the disease and won't know that for some time, probably not until we're through the other end of this and we're nowhere near that now.

I also know from my own experience though that when you're in the middle of something isn't generally the best time to start doing post mortems other than to establish if you're doing something badly and to stop it.   You're better to focus your efforts on dealing with the immediate problem and recovering the position as best you can, the rest can come later.

 

[Newryrep]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

You might be flying out of Dublin and you might have and ROI passport but you have - I assume - a UK address.  Not sure if that will help you or whether the Greek authorities will have due regard to the finer points of the Good Friday agreement.

I am not sure why you mention the GFA it made no difference to my eligilibity for an irish passport which was my right from birth and exercised long before the GFA was even thought of. (It also made no difference to football eligibility but that is another argument )

 

I daresay the greeks will see the irish passport and if the arrangements with Ireland and Greece are not an issue then there would be no issue - I am not going to Greece anyway but the same comment applies to Ireland as to the UK , is the 14 day quarantine applied to countries with a better record than Ireland who on the whole has done reasonably well ?certainly in comparison to the UK where the common travel areas will not require quarantine between the two

[Ally Bongo]

I wonder if the anti lockdown brigade have noticed what's going on in Brazil - what a shit show that looks like being (as predicted 2 months ago)

Hitchens seems to be ignoring it anytime it's mentioned

[phart]

14 minutes ago, aaid said:

 

There's no shadow of a doubt they are bad.   The question though is what would good have looked like, i.e. given all the relevant facts about the disease, how it spreads, who are the most vulnerable and then how does all that relate to the wider UK and to Scotland, if the government - or governments - were right on every single decision, took it at the right time and implemented those successfully, what the was the baseline level of infections and deaths you'd expect.   

I don't think we are anywhere near knowing that - particularly the detailed pathology of the disease and won't know that for some time, probably not until we're through the other end of this and we're nowhere near that now.

I also know from my own experience though that when you're in the middle of something isn't generally the best time to start doing post mortems other than to establish if you're doing something badly and to stop it.   You're better to focus your efforts on dealing with the immediate problem and recovering the position as best you can, the rest can come later.

 

I'm not commenting on what the perfect case scernario would have been in a counterfactual universe. Merely that the response was badly managed and it should have been known, contemporaneously,  it was being badly managed, how badly managed as a metric is irrelevant to my point.

I was a strident flu-bro till March 4th then the information, publicly available, changed my stance. If a stubborn random on a football board ,who had already made his mind up the opposite way , can see what's coming at the start of March and the incumbent government can then you don't need an electron microscope to measure how bad the response was.

[phart]

Anyway I don't think what we're arguing is much different from each other. It's always good to remind ourselves things are a lot more complex than we give credit. I'm just trying not to start playing the free copy of civilisation VI i got. Cause if i start the lockdown might not be long enough. I played Civilisation 3 far too much 15 years ago or whenever it was out.

[ThistleWhistle]

3 minutes ago, phart said:

Anyway I don't think what we're arguing is much different from each other. It's always good to remind ourselves things are a lot more complex than we give credit. I'm just trying not to start playing the free copy of civilisation VI i got. Cause if i start the lockdown might not be long enough. I played Civilisation 3 far too much 15 years ago or whenever it was out.

Was more a SimCity guy - had a weird dream Godzilla stomped all over the VNA around opening! 

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, phart said:

Anyway I don't think what we're arguing is much different from each other. It's always good to remind ourselves things are a lot more complex than we give credit.

👍

There'll be a time and a place before long to properly establish responsibility and accountability although no doubt those who should be held accountable will do their best to avoid it.

[phart]

16 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Was more a SimCity guy - had a weird dream Godzilla stomped all over the VNA around opening! 

Simcity i played when i was younger but once i found out i could cheat on money (you could type in freemoney and you would get x amount but it would cause natural disasters, so me and my mate would spend an hour typing it in before we even built our first thing to avoid that).

I played the Civ VI tutorial 3 nights ago, and by the time i looked up it was 4am so i quickly closed the game and haven't went back to it yet. Caught myself thinking about what leader I wanted to play on my walk yesterday and what route to take in the different technology/science Civic and religious trees. I'm going to break and end up playing 30 hours straight trying to conquer the world.

[macy37]

8 hours ago, wheres the pies said:

The poorest of the eu country’s locked down early as a result a very low tally in deaths yes correct Scotland’s death toll is shameful 

I’ve now read this 10 times and I still haven’t a clue what it’s supposed to say.

Anyone??

[wheres the pies]

16 minutes ago, macy37 said:

I’ve now read this 10 times and I still haven’t a clue what it’s supposed to say.

Anyone??

Why don’t you read the last few pages of the tread then perhaps you may have clue 

[macy37]

7 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

Why don’t you read the last few pages of the tread then perhaps you may have clue 

I have. Apologies for being a dim cunt.

What happened to the IOW track app? Surely that should be rolled out by now no?

[vanderark14]

No fan of labour but yvette cooper made an ass of boris today. 

Its not just cummings who needs sacked, its that useless wank boris. He is a an absolute train wreck of a prime minister. How the fuck any sane minded person can support that mess is beyond me. 

He claims the cummings affair is a political ding dong and we should move on from party politics. Fuck off boris just fuck off and take your merry band of losers with you.

By far the worst prime minister of my lifetime.

 

[TDYER63]

18 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

No fan of labour but yvette cooper made an ass of boris today. 

Its not just cummings who needs sacked, its that useless wank boris. He is a an absolute train wreck of a prime minister. How the fuck any sane minded person can support that mess is beyond me. 

He claims the cummings affair is a political ding dong and we should move on from party politics. Fuck off boris just fuck off and take your merry band of losers with you.

By far the worst prime minister of my lifetime.

 

People have already  moved on. Its gone from anger to social media hilarity  within a couple of days. Whilst the jokes about his pathetic explanation are funny and I laugh at them myself they just detract from the seriousness of what has happened.  
The fracas will be next week’s fish and chip paper. 

I do think Cummings coat will be on a shoogly peg right enough.  One more step out of line and not even Boris can save him. 
 

 

[vanderark14]

3 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

People have already  moved on. Its gone from anger to social media hilarity  within a couple of days. Whilst the jokes about his pathetic explanation are funny and I laugh at them myself they just detract from the seriousness of what has happened.  
The fracas will be next week’s fish and chip paper. 

I do think Cummings coat will be on a shoogly peg right enough.  One more step out of line and not even Boris can save him. 
 

 

This one is an absolute peach.

The BBC have removed its host of newsnight for not staying......... wait for it

.....for not staying impartial. She made some comments about cummings

Thats right, the bbc is all of sudden impartial.

[TDYER63]

6 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

This one is an absolute peach.

The BBC have removed its host of newsnight for not staying......... wait for it

.....for not staying impartial. She made some comments about cummings

Thats right, the bbc is all of sudden impartial.

Yet Sarah Smith lives to lie  another day. 

[Grim Jim]

Incredible.    Nah, why should I be surprised.

 

[wheres the pies]

1 hour ago, macy37 said:

I have. Apologies for being a dim cunt.

What happened to the IOW track app? Surely that should be rolled out by now no?

not a peep about the iow track app I presume it’s not doing to well as they would be rolling it out ASAP if it was I see another 412 have died from Covid when other countries are reporting zero deaths 

[wheres the pies]

25 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

This one is an absolute peach.

The BBC have removed its host of newsnight for not staying......... wait for it

.....for not staying impartial. She made some comments about cummings

Thats right, the bbc is all of sudden impartial.

not that we are at all surprised but it really does show that the government are running the show at the bbc shameful never been so angry with a government in my lifetime 

[wheres the pies]

Well well another tory lie track and trace won’t be launched tomorrow tories at it time and time again trying to detract from demonic Cummings story