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Coronavirus


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2 hours ago, dohadeer said:

I think it’s odd when people try to write in an accent, like that.

’Niver’ instead of ‘never.’

’Naebody’ instead of ‘nobody.’

’Deein’ instead of ‘doing.’

 

An accent when we speak is usually natural or subconscious, and for many of us, learned at an early age, so not something that we have much control over. Going to the trouble of trying to write (made up) words in an accent is strange though.

Not as strange as your tedious boring bastard routine 

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4 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Its a dialect, even argued that its, its own language, we were taught how to write and speak doric from an early age, so I don’t really get where you are coming from, when i am messaging  friends i will write in doric, its not made up words, thats just ignorance to think such

Really?

You were taught to write like that in school? 

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Anyhoo.

I do wonder about testing figures and availability . Friend works as home visitor and one of her clients was taken to hospital on Friday testing positive last night . They have no intentions to test her at the moment just advise home isolation. 

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2 hours ago, Shaundy said:

Anyhoo.

I do wonder about testing figures and availability . Friend works as home visitor and one of her clients was taken to hospital on Friday testing positive last night . They have no intentions to test her at the moment just advise home isolation. 

I don’t think the UK government is that bothered about testing as it doesn’t really help the NHS. It would be useful for people to know if they’ve had the virus though. 

The WHO are desperate for countries to start testing more and I believe we are starting to test more but I don’t get the impression it’s something the government or NHS are that bothered about. 

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13 hours ago, Scotty CTA said:

We had 80 monos (large cages) of parcels that were unprocessed on Sunday night at my Canada Post location mainly due to people being too feart to come in to work.

I have to amend this as I now have more updated and accurate information.

What I was told today is that we were short on workers at the beginning of the week because of the people that had to stay home and look after children and/or elderly parents.

Volumes are up, and we have the delivery vehicles, it's just that the processing stage has now become a bottle-neck.

The number of workers needed would normally rise to accommodate the need of the new volume level but that would mean that the workers wouldn't be able to stay 6 feet apart (so it's a no-go).

Slow and steady it is.

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If you assume that all the current mild cases recover and all the current serious cases die you get an overall death rate of...

18,928 deaths + 13,115 critical cases = 32,043 total deaths

109,179 recovered +282,702 mild cases = 391,981 recovered

Death rate 32,043 / 391,981 = 8.175% death rate

So if the whole population of earth caught it ...

7,800 million people x .08175 = 637.65 million deaths

If a quarter of the world population get it = 159.4 million deaths

If just 10% of the world gets it = 63.8 million deaths.

If 1% get it = 6.38 million deaths

It is shaping up to be pretty bad.

That overall death rate has been rising as well not falling. It used to be closer to 6 or 7%. It is currently running 15% but the deaths come in faster than the recoveries. Even by assuming what I do above it is still 8.175%.

No wonder they are desperately trying stamp on it now.

Edited by thplinth
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The numbers are getting horrific. The link I think Ally provided a few pages ago is coming to fruition. 800 US deaths by 26th March. They are so fvcked. 

I go to bed looking at worldofmeters and wake up even more horrified.

The Hammer and the Dance is a great article to read.

I am genuinely scared now of this virus 😕

Edited by beardy
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32 minutes ago, beardy said:

The numbers are getting horrific. The link I think Ally provided a few pages ago is coming to fruition. 800 US deaths by 26th March. They are so fvcked. 

I go to bed looking at worldofmeters and wake up even more horrified.

The Hammer and the Dance is a great article to read.

I am genuinely scared now of this virus 😕

I'm posting this simply for balance. I've no idea if they're right or not. 

12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

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1 hour ago, thplinth said:

If you assume that all the current mild cases recover and all the current serious cases die you get an overall death rate of...

18,928 deaths + 13,115 critical cases = 32,043 total deaths

109,179 recovered +282,702 mild cases = 391,981 recovered

Death rate 32,043 / 391,981 = 8.175% death rate

So if the whole population of earth caught it ...

7,800 million people x .08175 = 637.65 million deaths

If a quarter of the world population get it = 159.4 million deaths

If just 10% of the world gets it = 63.8 million deaths.

If 1% get it = 6.38 million deaths

It is shaping up to be pretty bad.

That overall death rate has been rising as well not falling. It used to be closer to 6 or 7%. It is currently running 15% but the deaths come in faster than the recoveries. Even by assuming what I do above it is still 8.175%.

No wonder they are desperately trying stamp on it now.

That 8.1% death rate figure seems very high. Expectations are around 1%.

Take the Diamond Princess cruise ship... That's an almost perfect environment for the virus to do its worst (lots of old people mixing with each other in a small space.). Yet the death rate was just 1.4%.

 

Screenshot 2020-03-25 at 10.08.37 AM.png

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26 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

I'm posting this simply for balance. I've no idea if they're right or not. 

12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic

I read all of their statements and looked further into a few.

They pay no heed to the health system being overwhelmed. Italy isn't venting patients for fun. These are people who  need vented or they will die.

The data for the first 225 ICU patients admitted in England and Wales has been released. It does not reflect a simple Coronavirus or respiratory infection. 

Currently 1.5% of all deaths worldwide per day are due to SARS-Cov2. 😮

This is a biblical infection, I think we're fvcked and that scares the sh!t out of me.

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

That 8.1% death rate figure seems very high. Expectations are around 1%.

Take the Diamond Princess cruise ship... That's an almost perfect environment for the virus to do its worst (lots of old people mixing with each other in a small space.). Yet the death rate was just 1.4%.

 

Screenshot 2020-03-25 at 10.08.37 AM.png

The fundamental flaw in most of these projections is people making the assuming that reported cases=people who have got it.   Reported cases are only those cases where people have been tested and shown to have it.    There will be a much higher number of people who have had it, were asymptomatic or who had very mild symptoms, who didn't test and so don't appear in the figures.   Those will be orders of magnitude higher.   It's not correct to say "There are 8 billion people in the world, the death rate is 1%, so if everyone gets it, that means 80 million people will die".   I'm not suggesting you are saying that, but some are and, of course, not everyone will catch it.

That's a good example above but there are a some problems with it.

1.  How many people were on the ship in total against how many tested, ie., did they test everyone or just those who reported symptoms.
2. If there was complete testing, how many tested negative.
3. Since it was a concentrated and contained environment, that implies that there was more contact with infected people than you would expect in the general community but there would also be a smaller spread of infection.   If you have a - relatively - small group of people who are confined, they will have more chance of catching the infection but then will themselves infect less people.

 

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29 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

That 8.1% death rate figure seems very high. Expectations are around 1%.

The WHO estimated a mortality rate of 3.4% I think at the start of March. Don't think they have updated it since.

If you look at my numbers below the two in bold are real numbers (they have already happened, cases that have been resolved) so they are a given below...

What remains is the unresolved cases...

I assume 13,115 deaths out (13,115+282,702=) 298,817 unresolved cases that is a death rate of 13,115/298,817= 4.39% which is not that much higher than the WHO estimate in early March. It is the deaths that have already happened versus the recovered cases that already happened that are boosting the overall % death rate numbers.

I understand the WHO factor everything in but it is an old forecast and I suspect it will probably rise now, especially if we get to the point where ICU's get overwhelmed in 1st world countries, then the death rates go up a lot there, as they will if it gets a firm grip in India, Indonesia and other high population density poor countries. That will be carnage if it happens.

Time will tell.

Quote

 

18,928 deaths + 13,115 critical cases = 32,043 total deaths

109,179 recovered +282,702 mild cases = 391,981 recovered

Death rate 32,043 / 391,981 = 8.175% death rate

 

 

Edited by thplinth
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7 minutes ago, beardy said:

I read all of their statements and looked further into a few.

They pay no heed to the health system being overwhelmed. Italy isn't venting patients for fun. These are people who  need vented or they will die.

Bang on! And exactly why I can't buy into any of the rhetoric around it being overblown...

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4 minutes ago, phart said:

It's the difference between how many people die of the virus and how many people die cause they can't get treatment for the virus.

The Hammer and Dance talk about the collateral damage. If your ICU is full ov Covid 19 then you limit other people who can access it. There will be massive collateral deaths.

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Crazily I foresee the next wave of 'panic buying' will be when the realization hits the herd that they'd be better off getting it now and getting a place in an ICU than later when things could be already overwhelmed. I expect them all to be out licking windows and door handles very soon... 

Edited by thplinth
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