Coronavirus

[dohadeer]

18 minutes ago, Mox said:

There has already been considerable backlash from the hospitality, entertainment and service industry as a result of BJ telling people to avoid pubs, theatres etc but not closing them therefore making it impossible for them to claim for losses through insurance.

A decision that Ive no doubt was shaped by numerous friends in the Insurance industry.

The man is a complete fucking buffoon that can barely string a coherent sentence together, I can't think of anyone worse to be in charge of a crisis like this.

I’m certainly not a Tory supporter or a Boris Johnson supporter, but it’s surely a no-win situation for any British government. 
 

The country will be on its knees, by the time this blows over, and I assume that there’s no way that there’s enough money to bail out every industry.

[macy37]

Hate to say I told you so but yes I told you so. He’s playing an absolute blinder here, there will be loads of olds Broon bread by July freeing up a lot of cash. Arise Sir Boris.

[TDYER63]

36 minutes ago, Mox said:

There has already been considerable backlash from the hospitality, entertainment and service industry as a result of BJ telling people to avoid pubs, theatres etc but not closing them therefore making it impossible for them to claim for losses through insurance.

A decision that Ive no doubt was shaped by numerous friends in the Insurance industry.

The man is a complete fucking buffoon that can barely string a coherent sentence together, I can't think of anyone worse to be in charge of a crisis like this.

I heard that getting discussed on Radio Scotland on the way back from work.
The guy that owns The Garage was on and mentioned the insurance situation. It stinks. 

 

[TDYER63]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

Aintree Grand National meeting in April cancelled

Please please please let David Gray be cancelled 🤞🤞🤞

[dohadeer]

7 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I heard that getting discussed on Radio Scotland on the way back from work.
The guy that owns The Garage was on and mentioned the insurance situation. It stinks. 

 

I don’t know how the insurance industry or the economy works, but would insurance companies have enough money to pay out to the entire industry, across the whole country like that? Would it not bust the insurance companies themselves?

[thplinth]

1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said:

Yip

80% of us are expected to catch it during it's run

You can do the maths on the death rate from other countries

Basically a lot of people have a death sentence hanging over them in the near future

Funnily enough I did earlier today out of boredom. I concocted my own back of the fag packet 'What is the current worst case scenario calculator' based on that https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ web page data. Forgive any howlers on the arithmetic but I reckon... if things even globally went totally as bad as Italy right now... (Due to rounding in the source data these numbers are not perfect.)

Fag Packet Formulas... (Using the Total data line at the bottom of the country by country data table, as at a hour or few ago.) 

Worst Case Scenario Total Cases = (Total Current Cases / Total Current Cases per 1M pop) * Italy Current Cases per 1M pop

Worst Case Scenario Total Deaths = (Total Current Cases / Total Current Cases per 1M pop) * (Italy Current Deaths / (Italy Current Deaths + Italy Current Recovereds))

Meaning...

Worst Case Scenario Total Cases = 3.6m

Worst Case Scenario Total Deaths =1.58m

So as bad as things look this is not yet that bad IMHO. China has it under control (let see what happens when they try to go back to work but). While on the other hand India has almost no cases and if it catches on there... offt. Same with Indonesia, if it goes off there it will be very bad. It is in the balance but not yet anywhere near Spanish Flu levels even if you assume Italy happens everywhere. That said the worst case scenario numbers above are like a spinning odometer, right now they are just rising and rising.

[TDYER63]

2 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

I don’t know how the insurance industry or the economy works, but would insurance companies have enough money to pay out to the entire industry, across the whole country like that? Would it not bust the insurance companies themselves?

From what the guy said not everyone would have a policy  that they could claim on in this situation,  but some would , which would at least provide help to those pubs/clubs. So I don't think it would bust the insurance companies as it was probably only the more expensive policies that covered this. 
It just seems sneaky to me for the government to stop short of demanding a close down of pubs etc, and therefore the ability to claim on insurance, yet at the  same time tell people not to go to them. 

[daviebee]

12 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

From what the guy said not everyone would have a policy  that they could claim on in this situation,  but some would , which would at least provide help to those pubs/clubs. So I don't think it would bust the insurance companies as it was probably only the more expensive policies that covered this. 
It just seems sneaky to me for the government to stop short of demanding a close down of pubs etc, and therefore the ability to claim on insurance, yet at the  same time tell people not to go to them. 

Aye, the bstrds know exactly what they're doing.

[Grim Jim]

38 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Please please please let David Gray be cancelled 🤞🤞🤞

You have better taste than I realised.  

[TDYER63]

3 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

You have better taste than I realised.  

😁 as music compliments go, thats as good as its  gonna get for me ! 

[Grim Jim]

34 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

I don’t know how the insurance industry or the economy works, but would insurance companies have enough money to pay out to the entire industry, across the whole country like that? Would it not bust the insurance companies themselves?

   ...me trying to shed a tear.   Not for their employees of course.   Then again, did they help me when that truck rolled over my lovely wee car in Paisley?   Naw!   Not bitter me, not at all.

[Grim Jim]

1 minute ago, TDYER63 said:

😁 as music compliments go, thats as good as its  gonna get for me ! 

Now I take that as a compliment.   Well, good as I'm gonna get 😁

[Rohan]

If we look at some of the figures produced in regards to closed cases at this moment in time, the death rate is sitting at 8% totalling just over 7000 people. 

 

Now obviously this can be down to several factors for example immune system, underlying health problems, medicine received, how long before diagnosis. However this isnt even at its peak yet considering India have only recorded 124 cases, this will potentially infect tens of millions and the death count is only going to get higher. We'll be lucky to see the fitba back on for next season unless its behind closed doors

[Ally Bongo]

1 hour ago, thplinth said:

 

 It is in the balance but not yet anywhere near Spanish Flu levels even if you assume Italy happens everywhere. That said the worst case scenario numbers above are like a spinning odometer, right now they are just rising and rising.

This is the frightening bit which is only slightly eased by the advances in medicine since 1920

In it's 3 year run the Spanish Flu infected just over a quarter of the World's population

It was a brand new virus, nobody was immune, and it is generally thought the mortality rate on average was about 2.5% but in some countries it was double that.

This type of Corona Virus is also unique, nobody is immune, more infectious than the common flu virus (which we have lived with for 100 years) and mortality rate is over 3%

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-coronavirus-isn-t-like-the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common

[Shaundy]

Net global population annual increase peaked about 1990 at 90,000,000 + and is about 80,000,000 + as of last year . That’s net increase per year. 
worst case scenario we have an increase of 90,000,000 deaths per year for two years and five year 250,000,000 in addition to the already expected 1,000,000,000 deaths  . Still puts us at 7,777,777,777 population at some point next month. 

[vanderark14]

9 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

I heard that getting discussed on Radio Scotland on the way back from work.
The guy that owns The Garage was on and mentioned the insurance situation. It stinks. 

 

This is classic boris and co. Make sure yer millionaire buddies arw looked after first and then take action and fuck over the little guy.

I disagree with those who say boris and co are in a no win situation right now, a government is always in that position because its decisions will have a critics however the lack of decisions is what is letting them down right now and not listening to the right advice. 

Boris is being made to look even more srupid than usual, he is so far our of his depth its scary.

 

[Huddersfield]

9 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

This is classic boris and co. Make sure yer millionaire buddies arw looked after first and then take action and fuck over the little guy.

I disagree with those who say boris and co are in a no win situation right now, a government is always in that position because its decisions will have a critics however the lack of decisions is what is letting them down right now and not listening to the right advice. 

Boris is being made to look even more srupid than usual, he is so far our of his depth its scary.

 

This is it - 100%. The research centre I have dealings with were sending out messages to people to go into complete social isolation when Boris was still doing his 'keep calm & carry on' routine. I find myself watching this bunch with horror really. I have no doubt there are thinkers of some sort behind the scenes, but I don't think I've ever seen such a clueless, simpering, sycophantic set of 'leaders' in my life. Matt Hancock is one of the worst - every time I see him he looks like some sort of bullied kid, scared of his own shadow & worrying that he's going to get a kicking on his way past Downing Street.

[vanderark14]

4 minutes ago, Huddersfield said:

This is it - 100%. The research centre I have dealings with were sending out messages to people to go into complete social isolation when Boris was still doing his 'keep calm & carry on' routine. I find myself watching this bunch with horror really. I have no doubt there are thinkers of some sort behind the scenes, but I don't think I've ever seen such a clueless, simpering, sycophantic set of 'leaders' in my life. Matt Hancock is one of the worst - every time I see him he looks like some sort of bullied kid, scared of his own shadow & worrying that he's going to get a kicking on his way past Downing Street.

The scary thing is nobody will hold them accountable. This latest brand of tories seem to get away with whatever they want

[Huddersfield]

18 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

The scary thing is nobody will hold them accountable. This latest brand of tories seem to get away with whatever they want

I think this aspect to things is interesting...history shows us from time immemorial that major social crises often become, over short & long-term, drivers for major social change. I think that you are going to end up here with a lot of people whose lives will have been turned upside down irrevocably, be it through lost jobs, lost relatives, lost pensions & simply the pressure of living like this for the duration. I think unless they up the ante a bit & actually start to look & sound like people with a plan that people can relate to, then it's hard to predict how different strata of society might start to behave.

[phart]

On 3/15/2020 at 5:35 PM, phart said:

 

 

Not increasing they did say some lag time between shut-down and it having an effect.

 

[phart]

 

[exile]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

The scary thing is nobody will hold them accountable. This latest brand of tories seem to get away with whatever they want

Agreed. While Government itself might have difficult choices and be in a no-win situation (damned if they do, damned if they don't) the media is supposed to give us clear information and ask critical questions where necessary. The British media are not doing this. Half the time they are uncritically spinning the Govt line, just repeating as if trugh that the Govt is just following the science, then pretending nothing has happened after they do a U-turn. Meanwhile, they fail to distinguish what policies apply in Scotland versus the rest of the UK. Not a party political issue, or 'regional' sensitivity about the news where you are but a real public service deficiency, when you don't know which conditions apply to your own country.

[phart]

 

[exile]

2 minutes ago, phart said:

 

Yeah, and some people said "The Govt knows what it's doing, it's following the science" "Don't listen to Twitter hordes" and "Keep Calm and Carry On"  (they were literally still saying it to my face, yesterday)

[Squirrelhumper]

11 hours ago, macy37 said:

Hate to say I told you so but yes I told you so. He’s playing an absolute blinder here, there will be loads of olds Broon bread by July freeing up a lot of cash. Arise Sir Boris.

Even if 200,000 pensioners die, it'll free up what, £25m a week? It's hardly a masterstroke.

Country will be losing more than that daily due to these measures.