Coronavirus

[Hertsscot]

I'm confused.  The UK Government is out of step with most other nations that are trying to deal with coronavirus and its out of step with WHO advice.  My understanding is that the Govt. strategy is now about building up 'herd immunity'.  If that's the case then why bother trying to prevent yourself getting it (unless you or people that you're in close proximity to have underlying health problems). On the one hand they seem to be saying we need as many people as possible to get it (especially the young) and on the other hand try not to get it and pass it on.  I'm having difficulty trying to square this particular circle, am I just being thick?

[Huddersfield]

10 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

I'm confused.  The UK Government is out of step with most other nations that are trying to deal with coronavirus and its out of step with WHO advice.  My understanding is that the Govt. strategy is now about building up 'herd immunity'.  If that's the case then why bother trying to prevent yourself getting it (unless you or people that you're in close proximity to have underlying health problems). On the one hand they seem to be saying we need as many people as possible to get it (especially the young) and on the other hand try not to get it and pass it on.  I'm having difficulty trying to square this particular circle, am I just being thick?

I don't think so...I have been struck lately by just how stunningly inept the current crop of Tory leaders are. Clearly BJ doesn't want anyone with any real leadership skill or intelligence anywhere near him. I've heard a couple of interviews lately with Jeremy Hunt & he sounds like a deep thinker compared to the actual people running the show. And I don't think it's any kind of conspiracy territory to think that when you reach some of the people behind the scenes, the notion of knocking a good few thousands (or more) people off the care/benefits bill is probably seen as a good thing.

[vanderark14]

49 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

I'm confused.  The UK Government is out of step with most other nations that are trying to deal with coronavirus and its out of step with WHO advice.  My understanding is that the Govt. strategy is now about building up 'herd immunity'.  If that's the case then why bother trying to prevent yourself getting it (unless you or people that you're in close proximity to have underlying health problems). On the one hand they seem to be saying we need as many people as possible to get it (especially the young) and on the other hand try not to get it and pass it on.  I'm having difficulty trying to square this particular circle, am I just being thick?

I can only imagine they do want to go down the route of herd immunity but at a slower pace so the nhs can cope. If they continue with large events like football, too many people may be infected at once leaving what will already be a strained nhs strugging to cope

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Hertsscot said:

I'm confused.  The UK Government is out of step with most other nations that are trying to deal with coronavirus and its out of step with WHO advice.  My understanding is that the Govt. strategy is now about building up 'herd immunity'.  If that's the case then why bother trying to prevent yourself getting it (unless you or people that you're in close proximity to have underlying health problems). On the one hand they seem to be saying we need as many people as possible to get it (especially the young) and on the other hand try not to get it and pass it on.  I'm having difficulty trying to square this particular circle, am I just being thick?

I saw this thread on Twitter earlier which explains what the government is trying to do - or at least what the author thinks they're trying to do.

Its not without risks though.   TBH, I can understand why they're reluctant to go into this level of detail as there's far too much nuance for the media to deal with.

 

 

[killiefaetheferry]

The SMSM don't seem to be reporting what is becoming common knowledge locally; that there are far more cases than is being reported. The UK strategy is clearly to allow and manage the spread. 

[phart]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I saw this thread on Twitter earlier which explains what the government is trying to do - or at least what the author thinks they're trying to do.

Its not without risks though.   TBH, I can understand why they're reluctant to go into this level of detail as there's far too much nuance for the media to deal with.

 

 

Exactly behavioural scientists trying to do epidemiologists job.

The branch of science riddled with the replication crisis trying to manage an actual experiment.

I've wrote elsewhere I don't think this is a good idea. (to put it mildly).

Just to point out someone on the actual decision making process was speaking on twitter too, they were a behavioural scientist. Hence my use of the term this dude is not in the exact same branch.

Edited March 14, 2020 by phart

[86glebestreet]

My pal and 6 of his family has just had their bags taken off a flight to Tenerife this morning from Glasgow and holiday cancelled , they were at gate waiting to board 

[beardy]

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I saw this thread on Twitter earlier which explains what the government is trying to do - or at least what the author thinks they're trying to do.

Its not without risks though.   TBH, I can understand why they're reluctant to go into this level of detail as there's far too much nuance for the media to deal with.

 

 

What virus has a society successfully achieved Herd Immunity with.

Smallpox, measles, polio all achieved it through vaccination.

The reservoir of disease will not drop enough to achieve this. 

This does seem a very risky strategy.

[aaid]

2 minutes ago, 86glebestreet said:

My pal and 6 of his family has just had their bags taken off a flight to Tenerife this morning from Glasgow and holiday cancelled , they were at gate waiting to board 

TBH, I'm amazed that anyone's actually travelling unless it's essential.  There's got to be a high likelihood that you'll either not get there or will get stuck out there and can't get back.

[aaid]

1 minute ago, beardy said:

What virus has a society successfully achieved Herd Immunity with.

Smallpox, measles, polio all achieved it through vaccination.

The reservoir of disease will not drop enough to achieve this. 

This does seem a very risky strategy.

I'm not saying I agree with it.  The post I responded to was asking "what are the government trying to do".

retweets don't constitute an endorsement and all that

[86glebestreet]

11 minutes ago, aaid said:

TBH, I'm amazed that anyone's actually travelling unless it's essential.  There's got to be a high likelihood that you'll either not get there or will get stuck out there and can't get back.

Just spoke to another friend, he is executive chef on river cruises in Germany, Austria , he only went out 10 days ago but he is on way home as the whole operation has closed down, a lot to do with trump cancelling flights, most of the people on the river cruises are old Americans

[exile]

 

1 hour ago, aaid said:

I saw this thread on Twitter earlier which explains what the government is trying to do - or at least what the author thinks they're trying to do.

Its not without risks though.   TBH, I can understand why they're reluctant to go into this level of detail as there's far too much nuance for the media to deal with.

 

 

I read somewhere that Cummings could be the one driving this, poring over the stats and aiming at a strategy that could be clever, realistic, a calculated risk. But delivered by Johnson, it comes across as dithering, possibly callous and self-serving, and bumbling about singing the national anthem. 

So it could be the UK Govt is indeed trying to do the right thing - and perhaps why the Scottish Govt going along with it, as far as trusting the 'science' goes (Peter Wishart was very supportive of the Govt line - perhaps uncomfortably so - on Question Time on Thursday).

But for the strategy to work the public need to trust the Government. If they don't, they start to panic and start cancelling events and so on, and then it seems the Government having to react to what the public are actually doing, possibly even change the plan if public aren't going along with it (e.g. closing schols or taking kids away from school anyway). 

Presumably the UK Government planned, all along, to have bans on mass gatherings, but just not so soon. The fact that Nicola Sturgeon did so first could be what infuriated them on Thursday. Not so much that her policy was wrong (almost no-one criticised her for the policy itself), but that she announced it ahead of the UK Government. And not just because she literally made the announcement a few hours early, but because she moved into the "mass ban" phase days earlier than for rest of UK. So it made them look tardy and reactive. Hence the fury on Thursday.

Not so much angry at NS doing her day job within the devolved situation, but angry that the existence of different devolved solutions became a distraction from them rolling out their own plan for England in their own time. But that's the consequence of UK media hungry for 24 hour news during a crisis.

Presumably the UK Govt is suiting its strategy to match the English NHS preparedness and capacity. But it can't say out loud why that is different from Scotland's?

Edited March 14, 2020 by exile

[Toepoke]

An interesting comparison of different containment strategies here...

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

 

[exile]

 

[fringo]

4 hours ago, killiefaetheferry said:

What's life like this morning down there on the other side of the Balgillo wall? Heading to Arbroath for our shopping. What do you need and do you have a drone?

I'm not sure...I'm still hiding under my bed.

[Lairdyfaeinverclyde]

I'm going to Australia, hopefully, (via Dubai) on Wednesday. Been checking Emirates flights, Dubai airport for information. At this time flights are ok, deep cleaning etc. Dubai airport staff are checking your temp. when we go for connection. Me and the Mrs are not leaving the house until we head to the airport. Pretty confident it will be ok. Only thing that is pissing me of is that I gave my tickets away for the Israel game thinking I wouldn't be here to see it. Now it will probably be re-arranged when I am here and don't have a ticket. Fuck coronavirus...…...

[teecee-]

Even after immunisation nearly 20.000 die from Influenza in the UK every year. Why does this seem acceptable?

The age demographics also indicate a younger fatality rate ,

 

.

[phart]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

I saw this thread on Twitter earlier which explains what the government is trying to do - or at least what the author thinks they're trying to do.

Its not without risks though.   TBH, I can understand why they're reluctant to go into this level of detail as there's far too much nuance for the media to deal with.

 

 

It's made the news as well

 

 

 

[teecee-]

13 minutes ago, Lairdyfaeinverclyde said:

I'm going to Australia, hopefully, (via Dubai) on Wednesday. Been checking Emirates flights, Dubai airport for information. At this time flights are ok, deep cleaning etc. Dubai airport staff are checking your temp. when we go for connection. Me and the Mrs are not leaving the house until we head to the airport. Pretty confident it will be ok. Only thing that is pissing me of is that I gave my tickets away for the Israel game thinking I wouldn't be here to see it. Now it will probably be re-arranged when I am here and don't have a ticket. Fuck coronavirus...…...

Was only due to go to Costa Blanca but decided against it as all Bars to close for a fortnight.

[dohadeer]

2 hours ago, 86glebestreet said:

My pal and 6 of his family has just had their bags taken off a flight to Tenerife this morning from Glasgow and holiday cancelled , they were at gate waiting to board 

Why were they still thinking of traveling? That’s crazy.

[dohadeer]

40 minutes ago, Lairdyfaeinverclyde said:

I'm going to Australia, hopefully, (via Dubai) on Wednesday. Been checking Emirates flights, Dubai airport for information. At this time flights are ok, deep cleaning etc. Dubai airport staff are checking your temp. when we go for connection. Me and the Mrs are not leaving the house until we head to the airport. Pretty confident it will be ok. Only thing that is pissing me of is that I gave my tickets away for the Israel game thinking I wouldn't be here to see it. Now it will probably be re-arranged when I am here and don't have a ticket. Fuck coronavirus...…...

And the same question to contestant number two......

Why are you still planning on traveling? Surely ‘at home’ is the only place to be at the moment?

Edited March 14, 2020 by dohadeer

[Barney Rubble]

A serious question in all this situation- why are cash payments still universally permitted?

Banknotes and coins must be a prime source of potential infection, so why not impose cashless payments wherever possible? 

[dohadeer]

8 minutes ago, Barney Rubble said:

A serious question in all this situation- why are cash payments still universally permitted?

Banknotes and coins must be a prime source of potential infection, so why not impose cashless payments wherever possible? 

I’m not sure how easy/realistic that would be to achieve. There are plenty of people in society who only work with physical money, we are still several years away from a completely cashless society.

[Barney Rubble]

10 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

I’m not sure how easy/realistic that would be to achieve. There are plenty of people in society who only work with physical money, we are still several years away from a completely cashless society.

Hence the 'wherever possible'.

Coronavirus will accelerate the advent of a universally cashless society.

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

TBH, I'm amazed that anyone's actually travelling unless it's essential.  There's got to be a high likelihood that you'll either not get there or will get stuck out there and can't get back.

We are due to fly out in 3 weeks time. If the flight isn't cancelled, I'm still going. That's my thinking at present, but 3 weeks is a long time and I might change my mind.