Coronavirus

[daviebee]

4 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Permission to use your post as a practice question for statistics students?

’Explain three errors that mrniaboc has made in their calculations.’

 

1. They are using someone else’s data - a mixture of media reports and estimates - rather than data they have gathered themselves.

2. They haven’t used a random sample of the population - they have chosen 150 people in the same industry, who have been in close contact with each other and had similar travel movements to each other over the past month.

3. They have started from a known result (2 people who work for Premier League football clubs in London, with the virus) and worked backwards, then used that to extrapolate the result to the whole population. That would be like knowing that Tom Hanks has the virus and then deciding to do an analysis of virus contraction amongst 1990s Best Male Oscar winners, and extrapolating that result to the whole population. You shouldn’t start from a known result and work backwards, a random sample would be a far better approach.

FFS does it really matter?   

[phart]

Some notes from a panel of experts in american universties.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-

[mrniaboc]

1 minute ago, dohadeer said:

Permission to use your post as a practice question for statistics students?

’Explain three errors that mrniaboc has made in their calculations.’

 

1. They are using someone else’s data - a mixture of media reports and estimates - rather than data they have gathered themselves.

2. They haven’t used a random sample of the population - they have chosen 150 people in the same industry, who have been in close contact with each other and had similar travel movements to each other over the past month.

3. They have started from a known result (2 people who work for Premier League football clubs in London, with the virus) and worked backwards, then used that to extrapolate the result to the whole population. That would be like knowing that Tom Hanks has the virus and then deciding to do an analysis of virus contraction amongst 1990s Best Male Oscar winners, and extrapolating that result to the whole population. You shouldn’t start from a known result and work backwards, a random sample would be a far better approach.

Now that's a lot better than your first response! I hope you do this with your students more often than just responding "What are you playing at?"

These three points are all exactly on the money, but let me see if I can addresses them to explain why I did this (as a fun experiment, not a rigorous study):

1) 100% true, but I don't have the capability or means to gather my own data directly from the population. Therefore I chose an online dataset I figured would have a high completeness of reporting cases.

2) Absolutely, but again I don't have the means to test another sample of Londoners. This is the dataset I have.

3) I like it a lot that you picked up on this one. I should definitely try thinking about a possible sample, that I can get reliable data for, where I do not already know the reported infections. 

 

You should defs set this as a question for your students, but you should also set this question at the same time:

Assuming all you know about coronavirus infection numbers is that Mikel Arteta and Calum Hudson-Odoi have it, how many people in London would you estimate are infected?

Makes a fun Fermi estimation question at least.

 

[Farcity]

1 hour ago, mrniaboc said:

Fair enough. I will too. But just pointing out what a quick sample shows. 

Ps: I do have another life off the TAMB

As well as another one on it?

[mrniaboc]

1 minute ago, Farcity said:

As well as another one on it?

Hahaha do you actually think I'm TDK/Chripper? I always told him he was paranoid for thinking that, and that you were bamming him up. 

[TDYER63]

 I have had an email from my gym, a very large UK gym. It is telling me they have increased the hygiene etc, then it goes on to say this :

Advice from the UK's health authorities is very clear: the risk of a member becoming infected if another member or staff member has tested  positive is very low. However, if we are notified of any relevant issue at your club, or if another member contracts the virus and has visited the gym, we will notify visiting members and undertake a thorough clean of the club. 

Surely the risk must be quite high in a gym ? 

Not that I am looking for an excuse not to go or anything...

 

[dohadeer]

36 minutes ago, daviebee said:

FFS does it really matter?   

Does what really matter?

[daviebee]

7 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Does what really matter?

Here's another stat - there are 81,249 registered members on the TAMB and 0.00123 of them is an annoying tit.

[Orraloon]

15 minutes ago, daviebee said:

Here's another stat - there are 81,249 registered members on the TAMB and 0.00123 of them is an annoying tit.

Does that stat take into account all his/her different user names?

[daviebee]

2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Does that stat take into account all his/her different user names?

  Actually thought about that just after I posted it.  He's definitely TDK/Chripper reincarnated.

[Orraloon]

30 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

 I have had an email from my gym, a very large UK gym. It is telling me they have increased the hygiene etc, then it goes on to say this :

Advice from the UK's health authorities is very clear: the risk of a member becoming infected if another member or staff member has tested  positive is very low. However, if we are notified of any relevant issue at your club, or if another member contracts the virus and has visited the gym, we will notify visiting members and undertake a thorough clean of the club. 

Surely the risk must be quite high in a gym ? 

Not that I am looking for an excuse not to go or anything...

 

MIght be an idea just to go for it? Catch it early and get to the front of the queue for the ICU beds. 

[TDYER63]

17 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

MIght be an idea just to go for it? Catch it early and get to the front of the queue for the ICU beds. 

You are not getting rid of me that easy. I have strong lungs.
I got a lung capacity check a few years ago through my works BUPA scheme as part of a general check up. They said I had the lungs of a 27 year old. 
Rather pleased with myself I told Mr Tidy that night when I went home.
Cheeky bassa replied with ‘ aye and the chest of a 12 year old’. 

 😡😡

[mrniaboc]

17 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

 😡😡

They look angry too!

[TDYER63]

10 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

They look angry too!

🤣🤣

[dohadeer]

2 hours ago, mrniaboc said:

Now that's a lot better than your first response! I hope you do this with your students more often than just responding "What are you playing at?"

These three points are all exactly on the money, but let me see if I can addresses them to explain why I did this (as a fun experiment, not a rigorous study):

1) 100% true, but I don't have the capability or means to gather my own data directly from the population. Therefore I chose an online dataset I figured would have a high completeness of reporting cases.

2) Absolutely, but again I don't have the means to test another sample of Londoners. This is the dataset I have.

3) I like it a lot that you picked up on this one. I should definitely try thinking about a possible sample, that I can get reliable data for, where I do not already know the reported infections. 

 

You should defs set this as a question for your students, but you should also set this question at the same time:

Assuming all you know about coronavirus infection numbers is that Mikel Arteta and Calum Hudson-Odoi have it, how many people in London would you estimate are infected?

Makes a fun Fermi estimation question at least.

 

Maybe just stick with the government’s statistics, instead of making a terrible job of doing your own statistics, and then using those to claim that the government are way out?

[dohadeer]

1 hour ago, daviebee said:

  Actually thought about that just after I posted it.  He's definitely TDK/Chripper reincarnated.

I’m definitely not.

This is the only account that I’ve ever had on here. I spent hours and hours arguing with/being trolled by The Dark Knight. I am certainly not that poster reincarnated. (I was here long before that poster, and am still here long after their multiple accounts have been removed.)

[mrniaboc]

1 minute ago, dohadeer said:

Maybe just stick with the government’s statistics, instead of making a terrible job of doing your own statistics, and then using those to claim that the government are way out?

Take it easy dude. Why are you so confrontational? Why do things get you so worked up on here? Didn't you put out an impassioned plea the other day for people to be nice to each other? Happiness is good for the immune system [citation needed].

 

 

[dohadeer]

11 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

Take it easy dude. Why are you so confrontational? Why do things get you so worked up on here? Didn't you put out an impassioned plea the other day for people to be nice to each other? Happiness is good for the immune system [citation needed].

 

 

Sorry, I didn’t mean to be confrontational.

I think that it’s important to call out nonsense and blatant mistakes, but yeah, ideally without being aggressive or abusive. I didn’t think that I’d overstepped the mark.

[mrniaboc]

15 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Sorry, I didn’t mean to be confrontational.

I think that it’s important to call out nonsense and blatant mistakes, but yeah, ideally without being aggressive or abusive. I didn’t think that I’d overstepped the mark.

It wasn't that far over, I just prefer the style of discussion that's like "You've included some assumptions there that have a real effect on your final outcome. What you could have done is this... what you could have said is that..."

You know, constructive feedback?

Instead you are often just like "YOU ARE WRONG! YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND ANYTHING! WHY ARE YOU SO SHIT?"

I guess this is an internet forum though. I shouldn't expect anything different.

[dohadeer]

1 minute ago, mrniaboc said:

It wasn't that far over, I just prefer the style of discussion that's like "You've included some assumptions there that have a real effect on your final outcome. What you could have done is this... what you could have said is that..."

You know, constructive feedback?

Instead you are often just like "YOU ARE WRONG! YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND ANYTHING! WHY ARE YOU SO SHIT?"

I guess this is an internet forum though. I shouldn't expect anything different.

The three mistakes that I pointed out in your calculations were just basic common sense/logic though. I’d have hoped you could have worked them out for yourself.

It was the fact that you criticised the ‘UK Science Chief’ and suggested that they might be out by a factor of hundreds/thousands that led me to criticise you. I think that in this case it was important to emphasise how inaccurate your calculations were!

[phart]

Just discuss it in PM's and spare the rest of us the tedium.

[mrniaboc]

2 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

The three mistakes that I pointed out in your calculations were just basic common sense/logic though. I’d have hoped you could have worked them out for yourself.

It was the fact that you criticised the ‘UK Science Chief’ and suggested that they might be out by a factor of hundreds/thousands that led me to criticise you. I think that in this case it was important to emphasise how inaccurate your calculations were!

That's fair enough. I honestly did intend it to be taken as a serious study. I should maybe have left off the bit at the end about the science chief's estimates. That said, I'd love to hear what sampling strategy they are using just now because, as you evidently know, just basing it confirmations of infection and people reporting illness is as deeply flawed as my approach haha.

I wonder if they are randomly testing people across London?

[mrniaboc]

4 minutes ago, phart said:

Just discuss it in PM's and spare the rest of us the tedium.

Real friendly atmosphere in here today. Enjoy your Friday everyone!

[Orraloon]

1 minute ago, mrniaboc said:

Real friendly atmosphere in here today. Enjoy your Friday everyone!

I'll do what the fuk I want with my Friday, thank you very much.

[mrniaboc]

Just now, Orraloon said:

I'll do what the fuk I want with my Friday, thank you very much.

Hahahaha. I'm aff tae the pub... efter!