Euro 2020 Playoffs (The REAL poll)

[The_Dark_Knight]

Just now, dohadeer said:

How do I calculate the percentage chance of one football team progressing over another?

You're the one putting my prediction under a microscope... So you tell me.

Checking the bookies, apparently.

[dohadeer]

1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

You're the one putting my prediction under a microscope... So you tell me.

Checking the bookies, apparently.

Football's a pretty competitive sport, wouldn't you agree? There are not many matches where the outcome is known before the game is played, unless it's like Belgium - San Marino, or some total mismatch like that?

[The_Dark_Knight]

1 minute ago, dohadeer said:

Football's a pretty competitive sport, wouldn't you agree? There are not many matches where the outcome is known before the game is played, unless it's like Belgium - San Marino, or some total mismatch like that?

Well, it depends, pretty much the entire calendar of the SPL is predictable, barring the Old Firm matches and a couple of freak results here and there.

The playoffs, if we get to the final, will be akin to a match between Brechin and Celtic. 

[dohadeer]

Just now, The_Dark_Knight said:

Well, it depends, pretty much the entire calendar of the SPL is predictable, barring the Old Firm matches and a couple of freak results here and there.

The playoffs, if we get to the final, will be akin to a match between Brechin and Celtic. 

Neither of those statements are true though. The SPL is a totally up and down league, Rangers and Celtic obviously dominate, but they only win perhaps 90% of their games, not 99.5%. The rest of the league is really competitive.

 

Scotland against Serbia or Norway, is in no way akin to Brechin against Celtic.

One features amateurs against professionals, which is a completely different level of mismatch to the other. Scotland against Serbia or Norway is a slight mismatch, in terms of form and quality, but nowhere near the level of Brechin and Celtic. Not a good comparison or analysis.

[The_Dark_Knight]

17 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Neither of those statements are true though. The SPL is a totally up and down league, Rangers and Celtic obviously dominate, but they only win perhaps 90% of their games, not 99.5%. The rest of the league is really competitive.

 

Scotland against Serbia or Norway, is in no way akin to Brechin against Celtic.

One features amateurs against professionals, which is a completely different level of mismatch to the other. Scotland against Serbia or Norway is a slight mismatch, in terms of form and quality, but nowhere near the level of Brechin and Celtic. Not a good comparison or analysis.

Yes. "Up and down". How many times do Celtic tend to lose in a season? Not many. Of course, i was referring ing to matches between Celtic and x.

Sure it is. It's a brilliant comparison. Take the previous matches for example, the first XI of Serbia has a transfer market value of £202.5m, whereas, with Scotland it was £26.3m.

Now, if you feel that strongly about it, that Scotland have more of a chance against Norway/Serbia as Brechin would against Celtic, then how about putting a little wager on it.

I mean, you're fighting me at every turn (and losing), and arguing that white is black, etc, so how's about a little wager? You seem to think that Scotland can triumph, even though you've said that we won't win the final (if we get there), so you're kinda flip-flopping.

Edited November 20, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight

[Dalgety Bay TA]

4 hours ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

 

Now, if you feel that strongly about it, that Scotland have more of a chance against Norway/Serbia as Brechin would against Celtic, then how about putting a little wager on it.

 

If you are offering the odds of a Brechin to beat Celtic on Scotland beating Norway/Serbia then I will definitely take your bet. I will even take that bet if we are drawn to play either side away from home on Friday. How about it?

 

Also, can you advise where you get Serbia starting 11 valued at over £200m please? Would love to see your breakdown of prices.

[Caledonian Craig]

Lets remember Serbia laboured to wins against teams lower ranked than us and worse than us. Only beating Luxembourg 3-2 at home and winning 2-1 away to Lithuania who earned one point throughout the campaign. That only points out that they can be pushed hard by even lesser nations than us.

[Caledonian Craig]

As for Norway they are only ranked ten places above us. In their group they fsiled to beat Romania twice and laboured to a 2-1 win against the might of Malta. So if Malta can almost get a result against them then Scotland are in with a chance too.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Caledonian Craig

[Orraloon]

20 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

As for Norway they are only ranked ten places above us. In their group they fsiled to beat Romania twice and laboured to a 2-1 win against the might of Malta. So if Malta can almost get a result against them then Scotland are in with a chance too.

You do realise that Romania are ranked 25 places above Norway, don't you?

[stocky]

5 hours ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Yes. "Up and down". How many times do Celtic tend to lose in a season? Not many. Of course, i was referring ing to matches between Celtic and x.

Sure it is. It's a brilliant comparison. Take the previous matches for example, the first XI of Serbia has a transfer market value of £202.5m, whereas, with Scotland it was £26.3m.

Now, if you feel that strongly about it, that Scotland have more of a chance against Norway/Serbia as Brechin would against Celtic, then how about putting a little wager on it.

I mean, you're fighting me at every turn (and losing), and arguing that white is black, etc, so how's about a little wager? You seem to think that Scotland can triumph, even though you've said that we won't win the final (if we get there), so you're kinda flip-flopping.

dont want to get into your argument, but thats no right.......  McBurnie, £20m, Burke £13m, McGinn£5M.......and aw the rest...,.,.,,.

[mrniaboc]

8 hours ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Even though i don't think we will?

Yes. Your way is the answer to "What is the best way of losing a small fortune?".

Simply put, when you place a bet (for example on Scotland to qualify) with the bookies you are "backing" that outcome. What the bookies are doing is called "laying" the bet. I.e. betting on all other outcomes. 

On some betting site like Betfair you can lay bets. Say on Friday when the draw is made that the bookies set the odds of Scotland qualifying at something like 10/1 (which seems roughly reasonable), then you can go on there and put as much of a lay bet on as you want. If Scotland don't qualify, they pay you that amount of money. But if Scotland do qualify, you have to pay out 10 times that amount. Just like the bookies do. 

But since you feel that the odds of Scotland qualifying are more like 10,000/1 it's an absolute no-brainer for you to put as much money on the lay bet. It's free money, with essentially zero risk, right? 

I advise you not to however. BeGambleAware.org

[mrniaboc]

1 hour ago, stocky said:

dont want to get into your argument, but thats no right.......  McBurnie, £20m, Burke £13m, McGinn£5M.......and aw the rest...,.,.,,.

Yeah, then add in Robbo, McTominay, Fraser, and Tierney potentially for the playoffs. Their combined value is around £200m.

[ceudmilefailte]

2 hours ago, stocky said:

dont want to get into your argument, but thats no right.......  McBurnie, £20m, Burke £13m, McGinn£5M.......and aw the rest...,.,.,,.

He did say the starting 11.

Edited November 20, 2019 by ceudmilefailte

[dohadeer]

8 hours ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Yes. "Up and down". How many times do Celtic tend to lose in a season? Not many. Of course, i was referring ing to matches between Celtic and x.

Sure it is. It's a brilliant comparison. Take the previous matches for example, the first XI of Serbia has a transfer market value of £202.5m, whereas, with Scotland it was £26.3m.

Now, if you feel that strongly about it, that Scotland have more of a chance against Norway/Serbia as Brechin would against Celtic, then how about putting a little wager on it.

I mean, you're fighting me at every turn (and losing), and arguing that white is black, etc, so how's about a little wager? You seem to think that Scotland can triumph, even though you've said that we won't win the final (if we get there), so you're kinda flip-flopping.

I'm not 'flip-flopping' at all. I'll state my position yet again. Scotland's chances of qualifying for Euro 2020 are around 20%, not the 0.002%, or whichever dishonestly-calculated/plucked-from-thin-air figure you are currently quoting.

Yes, I will happily have a wager on that. You have said that Scotland have a one-in-50,000 chance of qualifying. Can you confirm what odds you're offering me on them qualifying please, and how much the maximum I can bet on it is, and I'll let you know how much I wish to bet, and we'll arrange a way to organise payment etc. Thanks.

[The_Dark_Knight]

4 hours ago, stocky said:

dont want to get into your argument, but thats no right.......  McBurnie, £20m, Burke £13m, McGinn£5M.......and aw the rest...,.,.,,.

I said "first XI". McBurnie and Burke were on the bench.

[The_Dark_Knight]

1 hour ago, dohadeer said:

I'm not 'flip-flopping' at all. I'll state my position yet again. Scotland's chances of qualifying for Euro 2020 are around 20%, not the 0.002%, or whichever dishonestly-calculated/plucked-from-thin-air figure you are currently quoting.

Yes, I will happily have a wager on that. You have said that Scotland have a one-in-50,000 chance of qualifying. Can you confirm what odds you're offering me on them qualifying please, and how much the maximum I can bet on it is, and I'll let you know how much I wish to bet, and we'll arrange a way to organise payment etc. Thanks.

We'll keep it as simple as possible.

You obviously think Scotland have a better chance of qualifying than I do. So let's put your convictions to the test, shall we?

If Scotland win the final, and qualify for Euro. 2020, i give you £1k (I'll transfer it via paypal of a bank transfer)

If Scotland lose the final, and fail to qualify for Euro 2020, you give me £1k (via paypal of bank transfer)

Deal?

[mrniaboc]

3 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

We'll keep it as simple as possible.

You obviously think Scotland have a better chance of qualifying than I do. So let's put your convictions to the test, shall we?

If Scotland win the final, and qualify for Euro. 2020, i give you £1k (I'll transfer it via paypal of a bank transfer)

If Scotland lose the final, and fail to qualify for Euro 2020, you give me £1k (via paypal of bank transfer)

Deal?

That means odds of "evens". You are now saying that each outcome is equally likely. I.e. Scotland have a 50% chance of qualifying. 

[The_Dark_Knight]

5 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

That means odds of "evens". You are now saying that each outcome is equally likely. I.e. Scotland have a 50% chance of qualifying. 

I don't care.

I'm not Mr Ladbrokes.

If he thinks Scotland will qualify, fine. We'll see if he'll put £1k on it.

Edited November 20, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight

[mrniaboc]

1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

I don't care.

I'm not Mr Ladbrokes.

If he thinks Scotland will qualify, fine. We'll see if he'll put £1k on it.

I don't think anyone would put a grand on at evens! Might take your original odds of 50000/1 though haha. Not sure you could pay out on that though? 

[The_Dark_Knight]

1 minute ago, mrniaboc said:

I don't think anyone would put a grand on at evens! Might take your original odds of 50000/1 though haha. Not sure you could pay out on that though? 

Well, a grand isn't anything to be sniffed at.

And he obviously has more faith in Scotland qualifying than i do, therefore, he should accept the terms that have been laid out.

[dohadeer]

21 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

We'll keep it as simple as possible.

You obviously think Scotland have a better chance of qualifying than I do. So let's put your convictions to the test, shall we?

If Scotland win the final, and qualify for Euro. 2020, i give you £1k (I'll transfer it via paypal of a bank transfer)

If Scotland lose the final, and fail to qualify for Euro 2020, you give me £1k (via paypal of bank transfer)

Deal?

I said I think we have a 20% chance of qualifying.

You’ve offered me odds that would only be profitable to me if we qualify more than 50% of the time. I don’t think we qualify more than 50% of the time, so I’m not taking those odds.

You think we have a 1 in 50,000 chance of qualifying. I think we have a one in five chance. Obviously, as another poster pointed out, a bet would only work if you offer odds somewhere in between our two beliefs.

What odds can you offer which meet somewhere in between our two opinions?

Edited November 20, 2019 by dohadeer

[Caledonian Craig]

4 hours ago, Orraloon said:

You do realise that Romania are ranked 25 places above Norway, don't you?

But you never explained away them labouring to a 2-1 win against Malta? I could run through tonnes of matches in international football where supposed stronger teams have struggled against lesser teams or sometimes have even drawn or lost. That is evidence in itself that Scotland has far more than the chances Dark Knight is giving us.

Do not get me wrong I think we will probably just miss out in the final but Dark Knight is very clearly on the wind-up with his so called 0.0002% chance.

 

 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Caledonian Craig

[mrniaboc]

1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Well, a grand isn't anything to be sniffed at.

And he obviously has more faith in Scotland qualifying than i do, therefore, he should accept the terms that have been laid out.

So, put it this way. If he wanted to put a grand on Scotland qualifying he now has 2 options:

1) put it on with yourself, at evens, and stand to win a grand. 

2) put it on with a bookie, at somewhere between 5/1 & 10/1 probably, and stand to make multiple Gs. 

I know which one I'd choose. But let's see if he goes for it 😂😂😂. 

[The_Dark_Knight]

3 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

I said I think we have a 20% chance of qualifying.

You’ve offered me odds that would only be profitable to me if we qualify more than 50% of the time. I don’t think we qualify more than 50% of the time, so I’m not taking those odds.

You think we have a 1 in 50,000 chance of qualifying. I think we have a one in five chance. Obviously, as another poster pointed out, a bet would only work if you offer odds somewhere in between our two beliefs.

What odds can you offer which meet somewhere in between our two opinions?

No odds, I'm not a bookmaker.

Original terms or nothing.

[The_Dark_Knight]

2 minutes ago, mrniaboc said:

So, put it this way. If he wanted to put a grand on Scotland qualifying he now has 2 options:

1) put it on with yourself, at evens, and stand to win a grand. 

2) put it on with a bookie, at somewhere between 5/1 & 10/1 probably, and stand to make multiple Gs. 

I know which one I'd choose. But let's see if he goes for it 😂😂😂. 

Well, the lad has made a claim, let's see whether or not he can back it up.