dohadeer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 26 minutes ago, mwng said: Thought I had got my head round most of this, but still don’t get how Israel, who just finished second bottom in their group, managed to get in the playoffs. Also, am I right in thinking if it was the old format off the 8 best third placed teams, we would of qualified for the playoffs? Because the playoffs are based on The Nations League, not the European Championship qualification groups? It's not that difficult to understand, is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Pete Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 23 minutes ago, mwng said: Thought I had got my head round most of this, but still don’t get how Israel, who just finished second bottom in their group, managed to get in the playoffs. Also, am I right in thinking if it was the old format off the 8 best third placed teams, we would of qualified for the playoffs? The playoffs are decided by the final positions of the 2018 Nations League. The Euro 2020 qualifying groups which finished tonight have absolutely no bearing on the playoffs. If you still don’t get it then maybe have a read of this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_qualifying_play-offs#Path_C Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 29 minutes ago, mwng said: Thought I had got my head round most of this, but still don’t get how Israel, who just finished second bottom in their group, managed to get in the playoffs. Also, am I right in thinking if it was the old format off the 8 best third placed teams, we would of qualified for the playoffs? I make it that we are the 9th best third place team, so we would have in fact missed out under the format that you suggested? Would 'have' not would 'of' as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romanticscot Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Ooof, so glad it's not the old format. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, romanticscot said: Ooof, so glad it's not the old format. Would have been a fairer outcome for us I suppose, as the level of performance we have produced doesn't merit qualification. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceudmilefailte Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Anybody ever read the island of DR Moreau? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwng Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, dohadeer said: I make it that we are the 9th best third place team, so we would have in fact missed out under the format that you suggested? Would 'have' not would 'of' as well. Aye you are right. I had us above Greece, but they would “have” only had the 4 points they got against the lowest ranking team deducted as apposed to our 6 points. Thanks for the English lesson though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, mwng said: Aye you are right. I had us above Greece, but they would “have” only had the 4 points they got against the lowest ranking team deducted as apposed to our 6 points. Thanks for the English lesson though. Buy one English lesson, get one free......... The word is 'opposed.' Not 'apposed.' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mwng Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Buy one English lesson, get one free......... The word is 'opposed.' Not 'apposed.' Jesus Christ. Are you for real? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceudmilefailte Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, mwng said: Jesus Christ. Are you for real? Their's a couple of people on here who aren't real eventually they all morph into the same person. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 24 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Buy one English lesson, get one free......... The word is 'opposed.' Not 'apposed.' Dude, give it a rest with the spelling Nazi routine. The laziest way of going after someone is by correcting their grammar. If you want to go after this guy, fair enough, but try something other than correcting their spelling. You also went after me, on a maths way. That didn't work out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 hours ago, dohadeer said: I’m not an expert in working out the chances of particular events happening. I’m going to assume from your posts in this thread that neither are you? The bookmakers ARE experts in working out these sort of probabilities. They have to be, as they stand to lose millions of pounds and eventually go bankrupt, if they get their calculations even slightly wrong. So, when the bookies release their qualification odds, and they assess our chances to be around 20%, as someone else on here quite reasonably assessed earlier in the thread, are you seriously going to try and claim that the bookies have got their calculations wrong by a factor of thousands? Will you also use your superior knowledge to make yourself loads of money based on their mistake? Surely you have to agree that the bookies are way more adept than you and I at calculating the percentage chances of any team (including Scotland) qualifying for the finals? No. I'm afraid I'm not giving you any concessions on this one. Our chances of qualifying are 0.002%. If you disagree then you're not just disagreeing with me, you're also disagreeing with logic. When we were down 0:1 at half time yesterday, did you think we had more of a 0.002% chance of qualification? I'm guesssing "yes". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 25 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said: Their's a couple of people on here who aren't real eventually they all morph into the same person. Could we not do that? You saw what happened at the weekend when someone was accused of not being "real". Violent rhetoric ensued. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 So, anyway. The results of the poll are in: 88.23% think we'll make the playoff final, with 35.25% thinking that we'll qualify for Euro 2020. Surprising numbers. I'm astonished that it's as high as 35.25%, but there ya go, there's a lot of optimistic people here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 27 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: No. I'm afraid I'm not giving you any concessions on this one. Our chances of qualifying are 0.002%. If you disagree then you're not just disagreeing with me, you're also disagreeing with logic. When we were down 0:1 at half time yesterday, did you think we had more of a 0.002% chance of qualification? I'm guesssing "yes". So you are more adept than the bookies at calculating the chances of Scotland qualifying for the finals? Will you be taking advantage of the bookies' incorrect odds and exploiting their mistake to make yourself a lot of money? Edited November 20, 2019 by dohadeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: So you are more adept than the bookies at calculating the chances of Scotland qualifying for the finals? Will you be taking advantage of the bookies' incorrect odds and exploiting their mistake to making yourself a lot of money? I'd say so, yes. How could I exploit it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: I'd say so, yes. How could I exploit it? Why do you think that you know better than the bookies? They stand to lose millions, if they get their percentages even slightly wrong. So they have experts who analyse the football and the statistics and probabilities to a great level of detail. What expertise do you have which surpasses that? You could obviously exploit their error by getting together as much money as you can, and betting on Scotland not to qualify. Take out a bank loan and bet on us not to qualify, if you think it is as safe an investment as you claim. (99.998% chance that we won't qualify, is your latest claim, although the figures you quote keep changing drastically.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: I'd say so, yes. How could I exploit it? Lay Scotland to qualify with as much money as you can scrape together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: Why do you think that you know better than the bookies? They stand to lose millions, if they get their percentages even slightly wrong. So they have experts who analyse the football and the statistics and probabilities to a great level of detail. What expertise do you have which surpasses that? You could obviously exploit their error by getting together as much money as you can, and betting on Scotland not to qualify. Take out a bank loan and bet on us not to qualify, if you think it is as safe an investment as you claim. (99.998% chance that we won't qualify, is your latest claim, although the figures you quote keep changing drastically.) Because. Is "because" not a good enough reason for you? If not, if you require more reasons for my stance, you'll find it earlier on in this very thread. I think you'll find that yes, i do know more than the bookies on this subject. Oh. Trust me on this, if Scotland do progress to the final (Doubtful) I'll place a pretty handsome wager on the other team. How handsome? Why, that's none of your bee's wax! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, mrniaboc said: Lay Scotland to qualify with as much money as you can scrape together. Even though i don't think we will? Yes. Your way is the answer to "What is the best way of losing a small fortune?". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Because. Is "because" not a good enough reason for you? If not, if you require more reasons for my stance, you'll find it earlier on in this very thread. I think you'll find that yes, i do know more than the bookies on this subject. Oh. Trust me on this, if Scotland do progress to the final (Doubtful) I'll place a pretty handsome wager on the other team. How handsome? Why, that's none of your bee's wax! Where does your expertise that puts you ahead of the bookies come from? The bookies have whole teams of people who work on these calculations, all day, every day. How can you, as one individual, possibly have a greater level of expertise than that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Even though i don't think we will? Yes. Your way is the answer to "What is the best way of losing a small fortune?". You don't know the meaning of the word 'lay' either then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: Where does your expertise that puts you ahead of the bookies come from? The bookies have whole teams of people who work on these calculations, all day, every day. How can you, as one individual, possibly have a greater level of expertise than that? Ummm... God? Because the mind of a few, or one, can sometimes better the minds of the many. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Dark_Knight Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, dohadeer said: You don't know the meaning of the word 'lay' either then. Not really. No. I'm guessing, since you gave a snarky retort, it means. "Bet against"? If so. I will, if we get to the final. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said: Not really. No. I'm guessing, since you gave a snarky retort, it means. "Bet against"? If so. I will, if we get to the final. Why not bet on us failing to qualify, if you are getting around a 10-15% return on an investment which is 99.998% guaranteed? Edited November 20, 2019 by dohadeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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