Euro 2020 Playoffs (The REAL poll)

[mrniaboc]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

you and I have different opinions on what constitutes awesome 🤣

😂😂😂 That's fair enough. I'm a geek. 

[mrniaboc]

1 hour ago, vanderark14 said:

Never mind percentages, its blind optimism that makes football fun 🤣 if we win tonight there will be an exciting build up to the playoffs. Maybe not the same level of excitement in the run up to the Italy match at hampden in 07 or the playoff v the dutch but we would be two matches away from a tournament. I don't care how low people think we have sunken, its two matches, one of which will be at home. 

bring it on

 

That's the good stuff! Come on Scotland! 

[dohadeer]

I'm not sure where this belief has crept up on me from, but......

I find the idea that we could qualify for a major finals from this campaign, at this point in our history, a bit bizarre, and almost like not something I'd want. I didn't think that I'd not want Scotland to qualify, particularly after all this time, but please bear with me....

 

We've tried so hard to qualify, and I'd be pretty sure there's no other European team who have been consistently so close, without any actual successful qualifications, for the past 20 years. Our Euro 2008 team under Smith/McLeish and our Euro 2016 team under Strachan, were both teams to be proud of, and probably both good enough/deserved to qualify, but for being drawn in the most difficult groups imaginable. Beyond imaginable in the 2008 case, (Two World Cup finalists, and a quarter finalist, how is that possible?!)

Now, we are at the worst we've ever been, and I'm not someone who throws around such hyperbole to describe a particular performance, player, or line-up. I mean in terms of actual evidence of the level of players we have to choose from. Our midfield is still at a fairly competitive level, but the level of defenders and attackers available for selection has dropped off a cliff in recent years.

We find ourselves at the end of a horrid campaign which confirms that. 4 comprehensive defeats against the two qualified and higher-seeded teams, and a humiliating 3-0 defeat against a much-lower-ranked side. Not forgetting that it could have been even worse, given that Cyprus had the ball over the line on Saturday, and weren't given the goal. We still have to avoid defeat today, in order to secure 3rd spot in the group.

Currently, 24 teams qualify for European Championships. We are nowhere near being one of the top 24 teams in Europe, but we are in contention to be handed one of the two 'sympathy spots' which UEFA created as part of the Nations League, for reasons which I still don't know the justification for. We are only in contention for this spot because of a ridiculously lucky draw, which left us in a three-team group rather than four, and also saw us drawn with two really lowly-ranked teams for League C, in Israel and Albania. We even made heavy weather of topping that group as well!

So, I find myself with no enthusiasm for being handed a sympathy spot at a major finals, at a time when our player pool is at its worst point ever, and our team are punching below their weight, and playing at a level of teams ranked a bit below us, rather than above us. We are currently ranked 29th in Europe, and recent results/performances are even below that level.

My overall feeling is one of sadness for our Scotland teams/managers/players/supporters etc of the 2008 and 2016 campaigns. I would find it a total farce and insult to those teams, if this current campaign ended in us falling into a major finals. Come the playoff games, I will certainly be willing us on, and would never want Scotland to lose, but I have some bizarre mixed emotions here, and I don't actually want us to qualify this time either. I don't know where that conclusion has come from, but I think it's to do with not wanting to be handed/fluking a place that we don't deserve and wouldn't be able to justify come Finals time next summer.

I hope that that makes some sort of sense?!

[The_Dark_Knight]

9 hours ago, dohadeer said:

When you state a probability, that is very much something to be taken literally. That isn’t a metaphor or a figure of speech, that’s the statistical chance of something happening, based on evidence.

You can’t backtrack and wriggle out of that by claiming your comments shouldn’t be taken seriously. 

We are in a discussion thread about where we will finish in the playoffs. I would assume that all sane people on here would like to hear people’s real opinions on that topic, rather than lies or exaggerations.

’Give us your best lies and exaggerations about how we will do in the playoffs’ would be a pretty boring and pointless thread. Come to think of it, asking people to lie and exaggerate on any topic is a waste of time.

 

I’m interested in your honest and accurate analysis here, without any exaggeration. If we draw Israel in the playoff semi-final, what do you think are our chances of progressing through that round and into the playoff final?

Alright. If you want to go the long way with this and refuse to drop it, fair enough, I'll prolong it for as long as you like.

If we're talking about real world statistics, we have a 50% chance of making the final. If we make the final, we'll then half a 50% chance. But that's only really because it'll be 1 v 1 scenario, over one leg ties. So yes, if you want to be basic and keep to script, then yes, we have as much chance as any of the other teams currently in the playoff scenario.

However, if you wish to factor in the many variables, it'll plummet the chance of us winning the playoffs. Do you know much about football? I mean, you're on a football posting board, so it should be implied that you know something about football, but not necessarily, I've been here a while and I've happened upon some truly eye-raising opinions. So, just because a person is posting on a football opinion forum doesn't automatically lead to a conclusion that said person has even the most basic of knowledge about football. 

Our goalkeeping situation Is beyond dire. It's the worst it's ever been. We have two English League One goalkeepers currently in the mix. Defensively, we haven't got one center back who plays at a top level, we haven't got a right back that anyone is comfortable with. We have no midfielder who can anchor the midfield. We have no striker that plays at a top level, unless you count McBurnie, but you'll find that very few people around here rate him. Another variable is that our two best players: Tierney and Fraser, are forever pulling out of Scotland squads.

Another variable is that two players have quit international football on the cusp of the playoffs: Ritchie and Snodgrass. Snodgrass is still playing, and scoring in the EPL, so there's no doubt that he would still have a lot to offer, plus Clarke still rates him very highly. Do you honestly think, for one solitary moment, that Robert Snodgrass would give up the opportunity of playing for Scotland at the European Championships 2020 if he thought we'd qualify? No. He wouldn't have. He was in the mix, he was behind the curtain, and yet he thinks that Scotland haven't got 1% chance of qualifying via the playoffs. Take from that what you will.

Another variable is that we have a manager who simply does not have a clue about how to get the best out of the Scotland team. We're playing with a back four, even though it's glaringly obvious that none of our center backs are suited to playing in a two at this, the highest level. We're playing a double-pivot in midfield, even though we don't even have one anchorman, never mind two. The 4-2-3-1 system means that we can't really play with a box-to-box midfielder, and since central midfield is our best position (not saying much) then that's automatically hampering us before a ball is being kicked. Because we're playing with a double-pivot of anchormen who aren't really equipped to play in that position at international level, our wingers and second striker are starved of possession, so they have a natural tendency to drop back, essentially turning the 4-2-3-1 into a 4-5-1. Which means that the one poor sod of a striker is left feeding on hopeful long balls and pretty much trying to press the opposition defence single-handed.

Our team is essentially set-out to soak up pressure and hit teams on the counter-attack. Cyprus had close to 60% possession against us, which is embarrassing. God knows what a decent, or even a good team will do to us. Against Russia and Belgium our 4-2-3-1 was turned into a 6-3-1 as we were defending so much.

Taking all that into consideration, with all the bells and whistles and variables added to the mix, we have 0.001% chance. If you don't like my math or how I reached this number, I suggest you go back and read what I wrote. If you read all that and think, for one micro-second, that we have as much chance as the other teams of qualifying, all I can say is wait till May.... or is it March? I know that the month begins with an "M".

If we draw Israel in the semi-final of the playoffs, we'll lose.

I'm not sure how many more ways I can tell you that I think we'll not qualify via the Playoffs. One thing is for sure, though, if you want me to keep saying it, I will. I'll keep telling you and telling you and telling you and telling you and telling you and telling you till the cows come home. I'm giving you my honest opinion, that we will not qualify for Euro 202. I'm giving you football reasons. If you want to discuss math, mrbiaboc (Did I get that right?) is the resident mathematician. 

[ceudmilefailte]

At the moment assuming Bulgaria, Serbia Norway and us in the playoffs I would price it up as

Croatia 2/1

Norway 2/1

Scotland 4/1

Bulgaria 7/1

Not taking final draw into account

[dohadeer]

58 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Alright. If you want to go the long way with this and refuse to drop it, fair enough, I'll prolong it for as long as you like.

If we're talking about real world statistics, we have a 50% chance of making the final. If we make the final, we'll then half a 50% chance. But that's only really because it'll be 1 v 1 scenario, over one leg ties. So yes, if you want to be basic and keep to script, then yes, we have as much chance as any of the other teams currently in the playoff scenario.

However, if you wish to factor in the many variables, it'll plummet the chance of us winning the playoffs. Do you know much about football? I mean, you're on a football posting board, so it should be implied that you know something about football, but not necessarily, I've been here a while and I've happened upon some truly eye-raising opinions. So, just because a person is posting on a football opinion forum doesn't automatically lead to a conclusion that said person has even the most basic of knowledge about football. 

Our goalkeeping situation Is beyond dire. It's the worst it's ever been. We have two English League One goalkeepers currently in the mix. Defensively, we haven't got one center back who plays at a top level, we haven't got a right back that anyone is comfortable with. We have no midfielder who can anchor the midfield. We have no striker that plays at a top level, unless you count McBurnie, but you'll find that very few people around here rate him. Another variable is that our two best players: Tierney and Fraser, are forever pulling out of Scotland squads.

Another variable is that two players have quit international football on the cusp of the playoffs: Ritchie and Snodgrass. Snodgrass is still playing, and scoring in the EPL, so there's no doubt that he would still have a lot to offer, plus Clarke still rates him very highly. Do you honestly think, for one solitary moment, that Robert Snodgrass would give up the opportunity of playing for Scotland at the European Championships 2020 if he thought we'd qualify? No. He wouldn't have. He was in the mix, he was behind the curtain, and yet he thinks that Scotland haven't got 1% chance of qualifying via the playoffs. Take from that what you will.

Another variable is that we have a manager who simply does not have a clue about how to get the best out of the Scotland team. We're playing with a back four, even though it's glaringly obvious that none of our center backs are suited to playing in a two at this, the highest level. We're playing a double-pivot in midfield, even though we don't even have one anchorman, never mind two. The 4-2-3-1 system means that we can't really play with a box-to-box midfielder, and since central midfield is our best position (not saying much) then that's automatically hampering us before a ball is being kicked. Because we're playing with a double-pivot of anchormen who aren't really equipped to play in that position at international level, our wingers and second striker are starved of possession, so they have a natural tendency to drop back, essentially turning the 4-2-3-1 into a 4-5-1. Which means that the one poor sod of a striker is left feeding on hopeful long balls and pretty much trying to press the opposition defence single-handed.

Our team is essentially set-out to soak up pressure and hit teams on the counter-attack. Cyprus had close to 60% possession against us, which is embarrassing. God knows what a decent, or even a good team will do to us. Against Russia and Belgium our 4-2-3-1 was turned into a 6-3-1 as we were defending so much.

Taking all that into consideration, with all the bells and whistles and variables added to the mix, we have 0.001% chance. If you don't like my math or how I reached this number, I suggest you go back and read what I wrote. If you read all that and think, for one micro-second, that we have as much chance as the other teams of qualifying, all I can say is wait till May.... or is it March? I know that the month begins with an "M".

If we draw Israel in the semi-final of the playoffs, we'll lose.

I'm not sure how many more ways I can tell you that I think we'll not qualify via the Playoffs. One thing is for sure, though, if you want me to keep saying it, I will. I'll keep telling you and telling you and telling you and telling you and telling you and telling you till the cows come home. I'm giving you my honest opinion, that we will not qualify for Euro 202. I'm giving you football reasons. If you want to discuss math, mrbiaboc (Did I get that right?) is the resident mathematician. 

At no point did I try to claim that we had the same chance of qualifying as all the other teams. You are right. If it was decided on a draw or the toss of a coin, we would have an exactly 25% chance. Football doesn’t work like that, as you said.

 

I completely agree with your footballing analysis of how bad we are as a team. I also agree with you in thinking we are unlikely to qualify.

However, we also know other things about football as well. It is a competitive and unpredictable sport. The best team doesn’t always win. Home advantage is significant. One-off knockout ties, with potential penalty shoot outs can lead to unexpected results. There are potential opponents who we would be percentages favourites to progress against at home. I’m not saying these things make us likely to qualify. I don’t think we will qualify. However, they don’t equate to the miniscule percentages that you keep quoting. You admitted this earlier on, and now you’re changing your story and going back to miniscule percentages again.

Scotland have around a 20-30% chance of progressing from the playoffs. Even if we restricted ourselves to players from Scottish League Two, we’d have a higher percentage chance than the varying ‘plucked from thin air’ miniscule percentages which you keep stating.

That isn’t how football works. Even at our worst, we’d be 35/65 dogs in a home knockout tie against another League C team. Not 1/99 dogs, or worse like you claim. As I said previously, no football team in the world are anywhere near being THAT uncompetitive!

 

Please stop being deliberately misleading and dishonest about this.

Edited November 19, 2019 by dohadeer

[Orraloon]

17 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

At the moment assuming Bulgaria, Serbia Norway and us in the playoffs I would price it up as

Croatia 2/1

Norway 2/1

Scotland 4/1

Bulgaria 7/1

Not taking final draw into account

I'll take some of your money for the Croatia bet if you want.

 

[dohadeer]

18 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

At the moment assuming Bulgaria, Serbia Norway and us in the playoffs I would price it up as

Croatia 2/1

Norway 2/1

Scotland 4/1

Bulgaria 7/1

Not taking final draw into account

Firstly, where did Croatia appear on that list from?

Secondly, what do you mean ‘price it up?’

[Texas Pete]

18 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

At the moment assuming Bulgaria, Serbia Norway and us in the playoffs I would price it up as

Croatia 2/1

Norway 2/1

Scotland 4/1

Bulgaria 7/1

Not taking final draw into account

Croatia? Whit you been smokin?

[ceudmilefailte]

1 minute ago, Orraloon said:

I'll take some of your money for the Croatia bet if you want.

 

Woops ok, Serbia, you knew that though. 

[Orraloon]

2 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Woops ok, Serbia, you knew that though. 

I did. 

It's easy done.

[ceudmilefailte]

8 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

Firstly, where did Croatia appear on that list from?

Secondly, what do you mean ‘price it up?’

Price it up is what the bookies do to reflect possible outcomes so we have a 20% chance, Serbia and Norway a 33% chance and Bulgaria a 12.5% chance

Pretty poor book though as it adds up to less than 100% so I'll shorten us to 7/2

Will be interesting to see how the bookies do set it up.

Edited November 19, 2019 by ceudmilefailte

[The_Dark_Knight]

15 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

At no point did I try to claim that we had the same chance of qualifying as all the other teams. You are right. If it was decided on a draw or the toss of a coin, we would have an exactly 25% chance. Football doesn’t work like that, as you said.

 

I completely agree with your footballing analysis of how bad we are as a team. I also agree with you in thinking we are unlikely to qualify.

However, we also know other things about football as well. It is a competitive and unpredictable sport. The best team doesn’t always win. Home advantage is significant. One-off knockout ties, with potential penalty shoot outs can lead to unexpected results. There are potential opponents who we would be percentages favourites to progress against at home. I’m not saying these things make us likely to qualify. I don’t think we will qualify. However, they don’t equate to the miniscule percentages that you keep quoting. You admitted this earlier on, and now you’re changing your story and going back to miniscule percentages again.

Scotland have around a 20-30% chance of progressing from the playoffs. Even if we restricted ourselves to players from Scottish League Two, we’d have a higher percentage chance than the varying ‘plucked from thin air’ miniscule percentages which you keep stating.

That isn’t how football works. Even at our worst, we’d be 35/65 dogs in a home knockout tie against another League C team. Not 1/99 dogs, or worse like you claim. As I said previously, no football team in the world are anywhere near being THAT uncompetitive!

 

Please stop being deliberately misleading about this

We have zero percent chance of qualifying. Our chances are so small that, if I were in charge of the SFA, I would pull us out of the playoffs and tell FIFA "Thanks for the opportunity of qualifying for the European Championships of 2020 via the playoff route, unfortunately, we decline the offer". Will this happen? No chance. Should it happen? Oh, absolutely it should.

In my eyes, this whole Playoff business is a complete waste of time for us. It's not a waste of time for Serbia or Norway, as it'll give one of those countries a backdoor route to the European Championships, and I say good for them! If they attend the Euros in 2020 then I wish either team good fortune.

However, if by the slimmest of chances that we do win the semi AND the final... It'll be embarrassing beyond belief. Over two matches we've beaten Cyprus by two clear goals (letting in two goals), imagine how much of a nervous wreck our players would be in if they came up sgainst France, Germany, Brazil. It's actually stuff that nightmares are made of.

If you want to fixate on percentages and numbers, you're allowed. But I'm talking about football here.

You can accuse me of plucking random numbers from the sky, as well as lying, all you like. The cold, hard facts are that the chances of us qualifying for Euro 2020 is the tiniest, teeniest percentage known to human beings.

Deal with it. Accept it. Move on.

Edited November 19, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight

[ceudmilefailte]

2 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

We have zero percent chance of qualifying.

You really do have a problem with simple arithmetic.

[The_Dark_Knight]

Just now, ceudmilefailte said:

You really do have a problem with simple arithmetic.

Yeah. But he wasnt accepting the 0.002% jargon, so i decided to cut out the 0.002%.

[Squirrelhumper]

12 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

We have zero percent chance of qualifying. Our chances are so small that, if I were in charge of the SFA, I would pull us out of the playoffs and tell FIFA "Thanks for the opportunity of qualifying for the European Championships of 2020 via the playoff route, unfortunately, we decline the offer". Will this happen? No chance. Should it happen? Oh, absolutely it should.

 

You've lost the fucking plot.

[The_Dark_Knight]

Just now, Squirrelhumper said:

You've lost the fucking plot.

Thanks for your contribution.

Kindly put me on ignore if my opinions are too severe for your delicate sensibilities.

[AndyDD]

7 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

We have zero percent chance of qualifying. Our chances are so small that, if I were in charge of the SFA, I would pull us out of the playoffs and tell FIFA "Thanks for the opportunity of qualifying for the European Championships of 2020 via the playoff route, unfortunately, we decline the offer". Will this happen? No chance. Should it happen? Oh, absolutely it should.

 

Ooft. 

I've often wondered who could possibly do a worse job than the SFA... 

I jest. But that would be nothing short of disgraceful. I could understand if you said we should take the games but blood youngsters in a hyper competitive fixture (or fixtures) on the proviso that we essentially have our eye on the future. But even that goal, of getting some of the younger players worked in, would surely be better served by giving them these games on top of any friendlies, nations league and WC qualifiers before the qualification run for the next Euros, 2024, which presumably would be the targeted tournament in that scenario, than by electing NOT to take the games. 

How would that help anyone or anything? 'Patch most of the senior team and play the weans instead' wouldn't be my preferred approach at this moment, but at least that would have some semblance of reasonableness to it. Turn down the playoffs entirely is without question the worst suggestion I have heard in months and I'm just back from Cyprus, where steamin theories and mad suggestions were ten a penny all weekend. At least at that stage everyone was well canned. 

Pull out of the playoffs. The mind boggles. 

 

 

[The_Dark_Knight]

40 minutes ago, dohadeer said:

At no point did I try to claim that we had the same chance of qualifying as all the other teams. You are right. If it was decided on a draw or the toss of a coin, we would have an exactly 25% chance. Football doesn’t work like that, as you said.

 

I completely agree with your footballing analysis of how bad we are as a team. I also agree with you in thinking we are unlikely to qualify.

However, we also know other things about football as well. It is a competitive and unpredictable sport. The best team doesn’t always win. Home advantage is significant. One-off knockout ties, with potential penalty shoot outs can lead to unexpected results. There are potential opponents who we would be percentages favourites to progress against at home. I’m not saying these things make us likely to qualify. I don’t think we will qualify. However, they don’t equate to the miniscule percentages that you keep quoting. You admitted this earlier on, and now you’re changing your story and going back to miniscule percentages again.

Scotland have around a 20-30% chance of progressing from the playoffs. Even if we restricted ourselves to players from Scottish League Two, we’d have a higher percentage chance than the varying ‘plucked from thin air’ miniscule percentages which you keep stating.

That isn’t how football works. Even at our worst, we’d be 35/65 dogs in a home knockout tie against another League C team. Not 1/99 dogs, or worse like you claim. As I said previously, no football team in the world are anywhere near being THAT uncompetitive!

 

Please stop being deliberately misleading and dishonest about this.

Talking of Oliver Mcburnie, this was your post in the McBurnie thread:

"I think the hate wagon needs to get off him and more into the Micky mouse pre Madonna’s who can’t be arsed to turn up or pull out with little excuse."

Do you see me asking why you're bringing Madonna into this? I'm not insinuating that you're deceiving people or lying to them by bringing a famous singer into a footballing debate.

What Madonna has got to do with players pulling out with little excuse, is simply beyond me.

Edited November 19, 2019 by The_Dark_Knight

[The_Dark_Knight]

1 minute ago, AndyDD said:

Ooft. 

I've often wondered who could possibly do a worse job than the SFA... 

I jest. But that would be nothing short of disgraceful. I could understand if you said we should take the games but blood youngsters in a hyper competitive fixture (or fixtures) on the proviso that we essentially have our eye on the future. But even that goal, of getting some of the younger players worked in, would surely be better served by giving them these games on top of any friendlies, nations league and WC qualifiers before the qualification run for the next Euros, 2024, which presumably would be the targeted tournament in that scenario, than by electing NOT to take the games. 

How would that help anyone or anything? 'Patch most of the senior team and play the weans instead' wouldn't be my preferred approach at this moment, but at least that would have some semblance of reasonableness to it. Turn down the playoffs entirely is without question the worst suggestion I have heard in months and I'm just back from Cyprus, where steamin theories and mad suggestions were ten a penny all weekend. At least at that stage everyone was well canned. 

Pull out of the playoffs. The mind boggles. 

 

 

We won't pull out. So the very best scenario would be to promote players from the youth sides: Gilmour, Hornby, both Johnstons. I wouldn't even be against promoting a few from the 19/17s, like McPake, King, Morrison, Mebude, Liam Watson, Jadon Fairley.

It's time to think about the big picture.

We won't, though, we'll go onto the semi final, with the same old faces who have faied, the same old failed system... And shock-horror, we'll fail.

[Squirrelhumper]

10 minutes ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

Thanks for your contribution.

Kindly put me on ignore if my opinions are too severe for your delicate sensibilities.

Severe isn't the word I'd use - attention seeking more like it but that's two words.

 

[The_Dark_Knight]

Just now, Squirrelhumper said:

Severe isn't the word I'd use - attention seeking more like it but that's two words.

 

I'm telling you to IGNORE me (and that goes for everyone else who has a problem with my opinions).

That's pretty much the opposite of attention seeking. 

[AndyDD]

1 hour ago, The_Dark_Knight said:

We won't pull out. So the very best scenario would be to promote players from the youth sides: Gilmour, Hornby, both Johnstons. I wouldn't even be against promoting a few from the 19/17s, like McPake, King, Morrison, Mebude, Liam Watson, Jadon Fairley.

It's time to think about the big picture.

We won't, though, we'll go onto the semi final, with the same old faces who have faied, the same old failed system... And shock-horror, we'll fail.

Yeah, we won't, nor should we. It would be wrong on several levels. 

I would have liked to bring some of them in for this game tonight, as it happens (not as many as you would, two, three or four) but I think the concept of replacing the current senior team with the younger age groups wholesale is for the birds. 

We have a number of players who have plenty years of development ahead of them in and around the current senior team as it is, to be contemplating ditching them wholesale or in great number. 

I strongly fancy us to win the semi -final, so I doubt we will fail there. However, the final will be a big ask even at home. Not one I would count us out of entirely, though. A winner takes all home match against Norway or Serbia (A fair chance of coming to pass) is a damn sight closer than we've managed to get to a tournament in quite some time and both those nations are needing this back door for the same reason we are; they aren't all that hot, either. 

That being said, if we're away from home in the final I think we're on for a bit of a hiding. 

 

 

[Barney Rubble]

1 hour ago, Squirrelhumper said:

You've lost the fucking plot.

He's never ever had the plot to be able to lose it.

[ceudmilefailte]

Withdrawing wouldn't be unprecedented though we did it for the 1950 world cup.

Would give us some sort of place in the record books