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22nd November - draw


Bonny79

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4 hours ago, DaveyDenoon said:

I am thinking specifically about the campaign where we played the Netherlands in the playoffs.

The playoffs were meant to be an open draw, but UEFA then announced they were going to seed them.  Upon this announcement there was a lot of push back and cries of foul play (rightly so - if the draw was to be seed that should've been made clear form the outset, like it is nowadays) following which UEFA announced the draw would be open rather than seeded after all.

Cue the draw and miraculously (some may suggest almost mathematically impossibly, but certainly highly unlikely) the four teams which would have been seeded ended up playing the four teams which would not.

That kind of form is what I am referring to.

If what you are saying did actually happen, and the four top seeds drew the four bottom seeds, that is in fact a 23% chance, in a random draw featuring 8 teams. Not even ‘highly unlikely,’ let alone mathematically impossible.

It’s really amazing the sort of conspiracy theories that appear when you combine paranoia, poor understanding of probability, and confirmation bias (ie thinking things happen more often than they do, when they go against your own team).

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On 11/18/2019 at 7:45 PM, vanderark14 said:

 

Didn't uefa change the draw to a seeded draw after the groups once they realised France and Portugal may not make it to the finals?

Yes they did.

 

It was match fixing!

 

They wouldn't risk France and Portugal being drawn together.

 

What they did was fucking appalling...

... Then the Henry handball's rubbed salt into the wound.

 

 

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On 11/18/2019 at 10:37 PM, dohadeer said:

You don't seriously believe that?!

Surely you're better than that.

'Big' teams do fail to qualify from time to time. If UEFA wanted the big teams to qualify that much, then they could just make the qualification process much easier for them.

 

You can't seriously think that the referee was corrupt, because a late decision went against your team, on the one recent occasion when they were closest to qualifying? I was absolutely devastated that night, but there's no evidence whatsoever to suggest corruption or foul play. Quite the opposite in fact, in terms of key decisions in that match going in our favour, rather than against us.

 

Surely we're better than resorting to slanderous claims like that when we lose?! Those type of conspiracy theories are best left to our neighbours from over the border. I'm embarrassed to hear a Scotland fan come out with such nonsense.

Whatever the referee and linesman saw that night (the linesman was stood in front of it) didn't fucking happen and it blatantly didn't happen.

 

We had the ball...

Italian player shoved our player to the ground...

 

To this day, the decision defies belief and it still hurts.

 

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On ‎11‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 9:26 PM, dohadeer said:

If what you are saying did actually happen, and the four top seeds drew the four bottom seeds, that is in fact a 23% chance, in a random draw featuring 8 teams. Not even ‘highly unlikely,’ let alone mathematically impossible.

It’s really amazing the sort of conspiracy theories that appear when you combine paranoia, poor understanding of probability, and confirmation bias (ie thinking things happen more often than they do, when they go against your own team).

Yes, it did happen.

And chuck in the events leading up to the draw - what are the chances of the very thing that they wanted to do, then under pressure relented and decided not to do, actually coming true and happening?

There is no doubt in my mind that the draw that was eventually made WAS seeded, despite that not being in the rules to start with and there being an outcry when they announced their intention to do so (before relenting).

Its nothing to do with paranoia and everything to do with examining what happened at the time.  I am not a great believer in coincidences especially when authorities desperately want something to happen and then hey presto it happens.  Coincidence?  Don't think so.

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9 minutes ago, DaveyDenoon said:

Yes, it did happen.

And chuck in the events leading up to the draw - what are the chances of the very thing that they wanted to do, then under pressure relented and decided not to do, actually coming true and happening?

There is no doubt in my mind that the draw that was eventually made WAS seeded, despite that not being in the rules to start with and there being an outcry when they announced their intention to do so (before relenting).

Its nothing to do with paranoia and everything to do with examining what happened at the time.  I am not a great believer in coincidences especially when authorities desperately want something to happen and then hey presto it happens.  Coincidence?  Don't think so.

Mclesh said he got a phone call from some forein press radio station or something asking him "do you really think Uefa are going to let you qualify ahead of France and Italy???"

 

Well we saw they tried to cheat us but as we all know,  a draw wasn't enough that day.

 

Also we deserved not to qualify after losing in Georgia.

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On 11/19/2019 at 9:26 PM, dohadeer said:

If what you are saying did actually happen, and the four top seeds drew the four bottom seeds, that is in fact a 23% chance, in a random draw featuring 8 teams. Not even ‘highly unlikely,’ let alone mathematically impossible.

It’s really amazing the sort of conspiracy theories that appear when you combine paranoia, poor understanding of probability, and confirmation bias (ie thinking things happen more often than they do, when they go against your own team).

Your going to have to show your working out on that one to get full credit.

Edited by ceudmilefailte
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On 11/20/2019 at 5:26 AM, dohadeer said:

If what you are saying did actually happen, and the four top seeds drew the four bottom seeds, that is in fact a 23% chance, in a random draw featuring 8 teams. Not even ‘highly unlikely,’ let alone mathematically impossible.

It’s really amazing the sort of conspiracy theories that appear when you combine paranoia, poor understanding of probability, and confirmation bias (ie thinking things happen more often than they do, when they go against your own team).

23% chance?

Take it back, thats the right percentage after Ive worked it out, I think

Edited by kumnio
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30 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Your going to have to show your working out on that one to get full credit.

1234 seeded 5678 unseeded

1 plays any of 5678 is 57%

2 plays any 3 of the above is 60%

3 plays any 2 of the above is 67%

4 plays whoever is left is 100%

Overall odds are 23%

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5 hours ago, DaveyDenoon said:

Yes, it did happen.

And chuck in the events leading up to the draw - what are the chances of the very thing that they wanted to do, then under pressure relented and decided not to do, actually coming true and happening?

There is no doubt in my mind that the draw that was eventually made WAS seeded, despite that not being in the rules to start with and there being an outcry when they announced their intention to do so (before relenting).

Its nothing to do with paranoia and everything to do with examining what happened at the time.  I am not a great believer in coincidences especially when authorities desperately want something to happen and then hey presto it happens.  Coincidence?  Don't think so.

The problem is, to prove something untoward is going on, you'd need more than one example, to start analysing whether there are statistical anomalies, which may suggest foul play.

Something happening once, (especially something which had a percentage chance as high as 23%), is in no way evidence of foul play.

 

I assume that countries like Denmark, Austria, Serbia, Ukraine for example, who actually qualify from time to time, don't need to resort to these kind of conspiracy theories, as to why they didn't qualify. I think it's just because we never qualify, and rarely come all that near, that when we do come close, people seem to be hyper-aware/paranoid of anything that may be untoward, and start to blame things on match officials, or UEFA, or whatever other conspiracy theory they wish to dream up.

You really need to provide evidence before throwing around such conspiracy theories. A paranoid belief without evidence is just that. As mentioned elsewhere, leave that to our 'friends' from over the border. We're better than that.

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Even if UEFA bring oot the old heated balls, then surely it'll be in our favour for a Home tie and even more so if we draw Hungary/Romania as we are all hosts.

The logistics though (if we are away in any p with a capital P Potential final)are a nightmare ; and will be costly. Folk with more money than sense book flights to both Belgrade and Oslo? This probably should have been played as a mini tournament with the top seed hosting it!

 

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On 11/20/2019 at 9:59 PM, Rich NATA said:

Whatever the referee and linesman saw that night (the linesman was stood in front of it) didn't fucking happen and it blatantly didn't happen.

 

We had the ball...

Italian player shoved our player to the ground...

 

To this day, the decision defies belief and it still hurts.

 

I must admit, that is the single most surprising refereeing decision I've ever seen in the flesh. Bizarre. 

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It's rather startling really, just how big a draw this is for us. Huge. 

I cannae wait for March. 

Give me Isreal and then a Hampden final UEFA, you corrupt cunts (Because i've no idea how I would get to the away game in such a short turnaround and i've no idea how we would qualify from an away trip to Norway or Bulgaria). 

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13 hours ago, dohadeer said:

The problem is, to prove something untoward is going on, you'd need more than one example, to start analysing whether there are statistical anomalies, which may suggest foul play.

Something happening once, (especially something which had a percentage chance as high as 23%), is in no way evidence of foul play.

 

I assume that countries like Denmark, Austria, Serbia, Ukraine for example, who actually qualify from time to time, don't need to resort to these kind of conspiracy theories, as to why they didn't qualify. I think it's just because we never qualify, and rarely come all that near, that when we do come close, people seem to be hyper-aware/paranoid of anything that may be untoward, and start to blame things on match officials, or UEFA, or whatever other conspiracy theory they wish to dream up.

You really need to provide evidence before throwing around such conspiracy theories. A paranoid belief without evidence is just that. As mentioned elsewhere, leave that to our 'friends' from over the border. We're better than that.

Obviously I can’t prove it and nobody can. If I could then others better than me could and do something about it.

All I can say is that it’s highly suspicious that it turned out the way it did when this is exactly what UEFA wanted to do but couldn’t. Coincidence? Maybe but there’s a 77% chance it wasn’t....and I really don’t like coincidences!

We know FIFA is corrupt - why wouldn’t UEFA be? It’s really not past them to arrange a seeded draw on the sly if they wanted one (which they did). Not with the sole intention of stopping Scotland of course, but just because they’d prefer the big teams through. They’d have done it whether we were one of the wee teams or not.

I’m not suggesting for a second by the way that the only reason we haven’t qualified for 22 years and counting is because UEFA is corrupt - it’s because largely we’ve not been good enough and, arguably bar 2012 (Czechs at home) and maybe 2008 (great campaign and so nearly made it), we haven’t deserved to. That’s a fact. I can’t think of any reason why UEFA would wage a consistent 22 year corruption driven vendetta against Scotland to be honest.

As for this draw, we needed a bit of luck and a 50/50 to go our way. It didn’t so I think we can forget about euro 2020 as winning in Norway/Serbia will be very very difficult indeed for many teams, and for me I think it is beyond us.

Edited by DaveyDenoon
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8 minutes ago, DaveyDenoon said:

Obviously I can’t prove it and nobody can. If I could then others better than me could and do something about it.

All I can say is that it’s highly suspicious that it turned out the way it did when this is exactly what UEFA wanted to do but couldn’t. Coincidence? Maybe but there’s a 77% chance it wasn’t....and I really don’t like coincidences!

We know FIFA is corrupt - why wouldn’t UEFA be? It’s really not past them to arrange a seeded draw on the sly if they wanted one (which they did). Not with the sole intention of stopping Scotland of course, but just because they’d prefer the big teams through. They’d have done it whether we were one of the wee teams or not.

I’m not suggesting for a second by the way that the only reason we haven’t qualified for 22 years and counting is because UEFA is corrupt - it’s because largely we’ve not been good enough and, arguably bar 2012 (Czechs at home) and maybe 2008 (great campaign and so nearly made it), we haven’t deserved to. That’s a fact. I can’t think of any reason why UEFA would wage a consistent 22 year corruption driven vendetta against Scotland to be honest.

As for this draw, we needed a bit of luck and a 50/50 to go our way. It didn’t so I think we can forget about euro 2020 as winning in Norway/Serbia will be very very difficult indeed for many teams, and for me I think it is beyond us.

An event taking place that had a 23% chance of occurring, definitely doesn’t fall into the ‘highly suspicious’ category.

I’d put it in the ‘not even worth a mention’ category.

It’s confirmation bias on your part. You’d convinced yourself that the draw would be fixed, so when the outcome happened that UEFA preferred, you assume it had to be a fix. You’re conveniently ignoring the 23% chance of that event happening legitimately. Where does that scenario fit into your story?

Where does that sort of paranoia stop? If an event which had a 49% chance of happening occurs, is that also an indication of foul play, because it was more likely that it didn’t happen? You’re going down the route of ‘Mr 0.002%’ on another thread. You seem to assume 49.9% equates to 0%, because the odds are against that event happening.

I don’t think that you should be making slanderous accusations like these, unless you have actual evidence. The English media have a weird obsession with corruption involving FIFA/UEFA/anyone they can blame failures on. I’m fairly confident if the sort of thing was going on that you suggest, that the English media would have investigated and exposed it a long, long time ago.

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2 hours ago, dohadeer said:

An event taking place that had a 23% chance of occurring, definitely doesn’t fall into the ‘highly suspicious’ category.

I’d put it in the ‘not even worth a mention’ category.

It’s confirmation bias on your part. You’d convinced yourself that the draw would be fixed, so when the outcome happened that UEFA preferred, you assume it had to be a fix. You’re conveniently ignoring the 23% chance of that event happening legitimately. Where does that scenario fit into your story?

Where does that sort of paranoia stop? If an event which had a 49% chance of happening occurs, is that also an indication of foul play, because it was more likely that it didn’t happen? You’re going down the route of ‘Mr 0.002%’ on another thread. You seem to assume 49.9% equates to 0%, because the odds are against that event happening.

I don’t think that you should be making slanderous accusations like these, unless you have actual evidence. The English media have a weird obsession with corruption involving FIFA/UEFA/anyone they can blame failures on. I’m fairly confident if the sort of thing was going on that you suggest, that the English media would have investigated and exposed it a long, long time ago.

Jesus it’s not exactly hardcore paranoia and I’m well aware of the difference between 0% and 49.9%.
 

I'm merely suggesting it’s slightly suspicious or worthy of question that UEFA got the outcome they wanted despite of being a less that 1 in 4 chance. Of course it is possible that the draw was conducted absolutely above board and the 23% chance just happened to come about. I also suggested we’d never really know. But as someone who does not like coincidences there will always be a valid question mark over it.

Despite some English paranoia it’s pretty clear FIFA is corrupt. Who says UEFA can’t be too? Just because nothing has been exposed doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I’m certainly open to the possibility. Again, I’m not saying it was 100% definitely a fix, I am saying it is suspicious and there is a question mark. Plenty suspicious people have been found innocent. Some though, guilty. Who knows 🤷‍♂️

I also made it clear that I don’t think anyone but Scotland is to blame for Scotland not qualifying in over 22 years. If I was guilty of gross paranoia then I’m sure I’d be blaming UEFA/FIFA/The Man In The Moon or whatever.

The 0.02% guy is plainly just trolling - if not then he needs help. Even though our chances have diminished after the draw if he’s offering 50,000-1 I’ll have some of it.

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On 11/19/2019 at 1:05 PM, Youngie said:

Apart from Ferguson's offside goal 🙂

For the last 20/30 minutes of that game the ref did everything he could to stop us building attacks other than sticking an Italian top on and hacking our players.  The free kick at the end was a belter.  Most of us had started looking at the other end to see how our players were set up to attack.  A truly incredible decision.

Some interesting articles out there on the game, including https://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/14731635.alex-mcleish-scotland-were-cheated-out-of-euro-2008/ .

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1 minute ago, daviebee said:

For the last 20/30 minutes of that game the ref did everything he could to stop us building attacks other than sticking an Italian top on and hacking our players.  The free kick at the end was a belter.  Most of us had started looking at the other end to see how our players were set up to attack.  A truly incredible decision.

Some interesting articles out there on the game, including https://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/14731635.alex-mcleish-scotland-were-cheated-out-of-euro-2008/ .

That free kick at the end was unbelievable. Shocking decision! Still annoys me!

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