Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
aaid

General Election 2019

Recommended Posts

26 minutes ago, daviebee said:

Wonder why that Ian Murray guy is so popular as he always comes across as a total fkin knob-end. I'm hoping this election will be the asteroid that blasts Labourosaurus out of existence north of the border and puts them in the dustbin of history where they belong.

Probably because of the utter bawbag upper class cunts that he represents. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Ian Murray's constituency unmovable? I notice he has a fairly healthy majority. Anyone have more info about the demographics? I was going to ask about why he is so popular too as he comes across as a sulky brat at times with a permascoul. Last I seen of him, looked like he was attempting (badly) to grow a beard.

YouGov poll out today - although the data is 2 weeks old from 25th of October - SNP 42%, Tories 22%, Lib Dems 13%, Labour 12%, Brexit 6%, Green 4% - going via Electoral Calculus that would return SNP 50 ; Lib 5 ; Tories 3 ; Labour 1 seats. 

They were polling quite well in 2017 as well (40-46%) yet polled only 37% on the day. They also announced a few months earlier that year their plan for Indyref2 so there was the Unionist backlash -their version of the SNP landslide in 2015 - and the SNP ran a pretty shoddy campaign ; not really offering anything and being scared to talk of independence.  Brexit was not even a year old back then too ; and I doubt even some of the most pessimistic voters could ever imagine how tedious, long and shambolic the process and the UK government has been since then.

So a fair bit has changed since then. The EU election was an excellent night for the SNP - winning every single mainland constituency plus the Western Isles and Libs in Orkney/Shetland. I think key to success for the SNP in December is (to state the bleedin') getting the vote out and attracting back voters who didn't vote in 2017 ; I know of about 4 people who didn't vote in 2017 yet are SNP supporters and they returned in the EU election and will vote again in December.  I think their shrugged shoulders/meh approach was down to the SNP's 2017 campaign - saying independence to members/conference but scared to say it to the public.

A good campaign is required. It looks promising so far from the bits I've seen, but I think running hugely on a Stop Brexit message isn't a great idea. They are slowly winning over soft u unionists/pro EU No voters (one on QT yesterday in the crowd) but even going by that YouGov poll 25% of current SNP voters backed Brexit - and even if some SNP apathetic EU voters stay at home, we see how that went in 2017. And there are unionists who are against Brexit but when the crunch comes, they have the Lib Dems to vote for. They should of course talk about stopping Brexit, the benefits of EU membership and the shambolic approach by the UK government ; and it is a Brexit election, much more than 2017 but talk of other issues and independence. If they are soley stop Brexit party then you'll get similar results to 17.

There's a fair dunt of constituencies in Scotland with wafer-thin majorities, IIR, there's about 20 if not more with 2-1000 votes in it! A huge part of the success of May's EU result was the Brexit Party standing and getting 13% of the vote. Farage seems fairly pissed off at Johnson's deal and says he plans on having 600 candidates , so hopefully a few will sit in those now-Tory areas. Even if the Brexit Party only poll 2-5% in Scotland it could well be the key between the SNP winning a seat or staying in Tory hands.

Looking at constituencies like West Aberdeen/Kincardine, it looks quite good value for the SNP. Something like 13/8 or so and Tories 1/2 on. It was a Lib Dem seat for a long time ; went SNP in 15 and then the Tories flipped it quite easily in 17. It's quite a wealthy one too ; so you may well have some of that Tory vote not wanting Brexit but at the same time couldn't vote SNP so opt for the Lib Dems - which may result in a 3-way battle if enough Tories to Lib Dem voters switch , letting the SNP in the back door? 

Then again things could go the other way in some places. Ross, Skye and Lochaber - Blackford's majority is 6k or so. I might be wrong, but I don't think the Tories are planning on standing a candidate - they were second in 2017 but the seat was Lib Dem for decades. Going by the very scientific method of Twitter, English radio etc - an awfae lot of folk don't seem to like Blackford down there. And there will be a few Tories who'll hold their nose and pick a Lib rather than Blackford. So that could well be a surprise result. Then again, if the Brexit Party stand there ; some of those Tories may well opt for them!

At this moment, I don't really know which way it will go. I think we might well end up with a hung parliament again, and I don't think Johnson is half as popular even in England than the media have us fooled in to thinking.

If that YouGov Scotland poll was mirrored on election day, then the Tories would be down 10 already ; there's tactical voting going on in NI in half a dozen constituencies e.g where SF/SDLP/Green will all sit out , so the DUP could lose 4-5 of their current seats ; those plush English counties (and especially if there's Brexit Party candidates) Cornwall, Surrey, West Country etc may well go Lib or Lab ; but then again the northern English areas that have voted Labour for decades if not centuries might well go Tory (again, pissed off Lab leavers voting for the Brexit Party, not enough to win but lets the Tories in the back door).

Let's see how things go ; but a Tory majority right now, is a long way off, IMO.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, daviebee said:

I'm hoping this election will be the asteroid that blasts Labourosaurus out of existence north of the border and puts them in the dustbin of history where they belong.

I'm hopeful that a disastrous night for them might finally force them to reconsider their loyal pro-union stance. After seeing the yougov poll, Blair McDougall was on twitter tonight talking about Labour being on the "wrong side" of the independence debate.... SAY WHAT!? :lol:

I think Scottish Labour's stance could be the difference between winning indyref2, and fucking walking it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

I'm hopeful that a disastrous night for them might finally force them to reconsider their loyal pro-union stance. After seeing the yougov poll, Blair McDougall was on twitter tonight talking about Labour being on the "wrong side" of the independence debate.... SAY WHAT!? :lol:

I think Scottish Labour's stance could be the difference between winning indyref2, and fucking walking it.

If someone like Dennis Canavan who as an MP in the mid-late seventies furiously hated the SNP and was totally against independence can change and campaign for independence then there is hope for anyone. :ok:

I would be proud to campaign alongside anyone from Scottish Labour who was all out for an independence Scotland.

Edited by ErsatzThistle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though they have been useless for a while. I still get a wee bit of a surprise when I see them falling further down the polls. 12% in that last poll and fourth place.

I think they'll just beat the Lib Dems up here on the day, but it'll be close. And hopefully they do, as bad as Labour are ; the Libs are a different kind of wrong and horrible campaigners.

Labour would be better off doing what Murdo Fraser wanted to do with the Tories - rip it up and start again. A new name, independent of Labour in England, fresh start ; but then again you would still have the same dross who make up Holyrood in their party.

And for leaders, Richard Leonard is probably worse than Kezia Dugdale! It's just been an slide of shite from the crap/mediocre(if being kind) McConnell to present day.

Then again, they have themselves to blame! Took the country, constituencies, council areas, voters for fools and did very little for them. Lacked any sort of inspiration for Scotland and when the SNP took over (I'll let SNP detractors talk of their stewardship) running Scotland you seen almost instantly the aspiration, professionalism and belief they had in Scotland compared to Labour. It was a bit like going from being an amateur football team, who trained once a week and played without a manager to semi-pro, training every-day, and a manager who at least wanted to be there.

Unbelievably arrogant too and assumed the voters would be there every election.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Barry Gardiner has the voice of a creepy undertaker trying to persuade you to buy an oak coffin rather than the pine one.

Barry Gardiner looks and sounds like the kind of cunt who’d come tae yer hoose for tea but leave at the end wae yer Young Daughter’s knickers in his back pocket. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Barry Gardiner has the voice of a creepy undertaker trying to persuade you to buy an oak coffin rather than the pine one.

 

6 hours ago, WCTA said:

Barry Gardiner looks and sounds like the kind of cunt who’d come tae yer hoose for tea but leave at the end wae yer Young Daughter’s knickers in his back pocket. 

I've said on here before but he reminds me of The Master...

Master_Ainley.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Dave78 said:

I'm hopeful that a disastrous night for them might finally force them to reconsider their loyal pro-union stance. After seeing the yougov poll, Blair McDougall was on twitter tonight talking about Labour being on the "wrong side" of the independence debate.... SAY WHAT!? :lol:

I think Scottish Labour's stance could be the difference between winning indyref2, and fucking walking it.

Aye, but "reconsidering" just smacks of "these are my principles - if you don't like them, etc, etc..."

I've got a lot of time for the Labour for Independence guys but wouldn't trust mainstream Labour as far as I could throw them. Extinction would be too good for that party.

The Blair McDougall quote is interesting. We had the wrong Blair in the run-up to the indyref. We needed a rottweiler like McDougall instead of a lapdog like Jenkins. If he was to switch sides that'd be mega.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, daviebee said:

Aye, but "reconsidering" just smacks of "these are my principles - if you don't like them, etc, etc..."

I've got a lot of time for the Labour for Independence guys but wouldn't trust mainstream Labour as far as I could throw them. Extinction would be too good for that party.

The Blair McDougall quote is interesting. We had the wrong Blair in the run-up to the indyref. We needed a rottweiler like McDougall instead of a lapdog like Jenkins. If he was to switch sides that'd be mega.

Blair McD is an absolute bastard, I cant see him getting people to change their minds. Its easier frightening people to the status quo, that venturing out of the norm. You wouldn't be able to throw that fat fuck very far.

I don't think his type would help the cause.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, kumnio said:

Blair McD is an absolute bastard, I cant see him getting people to change their minds. Its easier frightening people to the status quo, that venturing out of the norm. You wouldn't be able to throw that fat fuck very far.

I don't think his type would help the cause.

An absolute bastard is what we needed last time and an absolute bastard is what we'll need more than ever next time. Whether we'd get that particular one I very much doubt but it'd be some coup given the briefings he'd have been privy to. He was certainly a lot more effective than our Blair who was sold to us as this "great communicator" but who was in reality as useful as a Tetley johnny bag.

Folk are motivated in different ways - some want to see the glowing future we could have by taking full control of our own affairs while others need to have the utter living sh*te scared out of them by pointing out the horrors that the Tories will have in store for us. Basic psychology - do you move towards things or away from things; do you want to avoid pain or feel pleasure. It's not a one size fits all.

And that's where we went wrong last time. "A positive campaign always beats a negative one." Utter fkin horse dung. No people ever got their independence sitting round campfires shoogling tambourines and singing kumbaya. We were totally unprepared for the sh*tstorm that they had planned for us. And what did our relentless positivity get us? Well and truly fked over and another few years of being asset-stripped.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, daviebee said:

An absolute bastard is what we needed last time and an absolute bastard is what we'll need more than ever next time. Whether we'd get that particular one I very much doubt but it'd be some coup given the briefings he'd have been privy to. He was certainly a lot more effective than our Blair who was sold to us as this "great communicator" but who was in reality as useful as a Tetley johnny bag.

Folk are motivated in different ways - some want to see the glowing future we could have by taking full control of our own affairs while others need to have the utter living sh*te scared out of them by pointing out the horrors that the Tories will have in store for us. Basic psychology - do you move towards things or away from things; do you want to avoid pain or feel pleasure. It's not a one size fits all.

And that's where we went wrong last time. "A positive campaign always beats a negative one." Utter fkin horse dung. No people ever got their independence sitting round campfires shoogling tambourines and singing kumbaya. We were totally unprepared for the sh*tstorm that they had planned for us. And what did our relentless positivity get us? Well and truly fked over and another few years of being asset-stripped.

I think you're confusing what the role of Chief Executive of the campaign is.  It's not to be the frontman - in 2014, that was Salmond.  It's not even to define the campaign strategy and tactics although no doubt he was one of a number of people involved in doing that.  It's about organising the campaign on a day to day basis to be able to deliver that strategy as effectively as possible.

One Blair lost a lead of 20 points during the course of the campaign and it wasn't Jenkins.   

Although they won, you have to look at the starting points for each side in terms of support.  Better Together was a shambles compared to Yes Scotland.

Next time it's likely both sides will be starting from roughly the same place - 50/50.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Dave78 said:

I'm hopeful that a disastrous night for them might finally force them to reconsider their loyal pro-union stance. After seeing the yougov poll, Blair McDougall was on twitter tonight talking about Labour being on the "wrong side" of the independence debate.... SAY WHAT!? :lol:

I think Scottish Labour's stance could be the difference between winning indyref2, and fucking walking it.

Blair McDougall hasn't jumped ship and is now supporting Independence, quite the contrary.   What he's suggesting is that Labour's poor showing in the polls is because they - and in particular UK Labour - aren't opposing Indy enough.   

This was his first tweet. 

Quote

Who could have foreseen that positioning ourselves on the wrong side of both brexit and independence would result in this?

"This" refers to the YouGov poll that has them on 12% in Scotland.    His next tweet in the thread, sheds some light.

 

Quote

They’ve been thrown overboard and have little to lose, and there’s no sign of leadership on the issue, Labour candidates should get together and organise a joint deceleration that they oppose another referendum.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, aaid said:

I think you're confusing what the role of Chief Executive of the campaign is.  It's not to be the frontman - in 2014, that was Salmond.  It's not even to define the campaign strategy and tactics although no doubt he was one of a number of people involved in doing that.  It's about organising the campaign on a day to day basis to be able to deliver that strategy as effectively as possible.

One Blair lost a lead of 20 points during the course of the campaign and it wasn't Jenkins.   

Although they won, you have to look at the starting points for each side in terms of support.  Better Together was a shambles compared to Yes Scotland.

Next time it's likely both sides will be starting from roughly the same place - 50/50.

I don't recall Salmond starting off as the front man. He seemed to take over things when the campaign appeared to be stalling. i think initially there was a deliberate tactic not to have it look like the SNP's campaign. There was another guy involved with all the strategy stuff who we were led to believe was some kind of wonder boy - somebody Noon I think?  Of course at the end of the day it doesn't really matter how great you think your strategy is if you don't combat the broadcast and print media effectively.

No offence but it doesn't matter a damn where we started from.  It's where we ended up that's the problem. Better Together might've been shambolic but who won and who got fked over?

You're right - next time we'll be starting even and that's why things will get a hell of a lot dirtier and the SNP better be ready for that else it's done for good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, aaid said:

Blair McDougall hasn't jumped ship and is now supporting Independence, quite the contrary.   What he's suggesting is that Labour's poor showing in the polls is because they - and in particular UK Labour - aren't opposing Indy enough.   

This was his first tweet. 

"This" refers to the YouGov poll that has them on 12% in Scotland.    His next tweet in the thread, sheds some light.

 

 

Cheers. I never bothered with the follow-ups. Only so much of him i can take. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

So are the tories not standing a candidate in blackfords constituency? 

I'm pretty sure the Tories will stand candidates in every constituency. Not to do so would send out the wrong message.  How actively they campaign is another matter but there'll be a name on the ballot paper.

As its a snap,election, a lot of constituency parties haven't finalised their candidates yet, so I wouldn't read anything into the fact no candidate has been confirmed so far. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, aaid said:

 

As its a snap,election, a lot of constituency parties haven't finalised their candidates yet, so I wouldn't read anything into the fact no candidate has been confirmed so far. 

When is the deadline for candidates?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

So are the tories not standing a candidate in blackfords constituency? 

My guess is the Tories will be desperate for his seat seeing as he is the leader of the SNP at Westminster. They plotted successfully to unship Angus Robertson so will try again here and will try to find the best candidate to stand against him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

My guess is the Tories will be desperate for his seat seeing as he is the leader of the SNP at Westminster. They plotted successfully to unship Angus Robertson so will try again here and will try to find the best candidate to stand against him.

Remember this is a UK general election.   For the Tories, replacing Blackford with a Lib Dem MP does them no good whatsoever as far as Westmister is concerned, it will still be an opposition MP that may potentially keep them out of power.

Similarly, for the Lib Dems or Labour standing back to give the Tories a free run doesn't help them either.  They might go "yeah we stuck it to the SNP" on 12th December and then go, "oh shit, we've helped the Tories get a majority" on the 13th.  A phyrric victory if ever there was one.  And if you don't believe that can happen, ask Kezia Dugdale.

While Independence - or more accurately, a second referendum - will be the defining issue of the election campaign in Scotland, it's a sideshow as far as the overal election is concerned, one which may have a big impact admittedly.  You can also guarantee that the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems in Scotland will do whatever the Westminster party machines want them to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

My guess is the Tories will be desperate for his seat seeing as he is the leader of the SNP at Westminster. They plotted successfully to unship Angus Robertson so will try again here and will try to find the best candidate to stand against him.

I was about to post that it sounds like a bit of a win-win to me, as i'm not that impressed with Blackford.

Then i remembered who the deputy Westminster leader is. :lol:

Can we not get Robertson back somehow?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dave78 said:

I was about to post that it sounds like a bit of a win-win to me, as i'm not that impressed with Blackford.

Then i remembered who the deputy Westminster leader is. :lol:

Can we not get Robertson back somehow?

What's wrong with Kirsty Blackman?

i'd put money on Angus Robertson going for Ruth Davidson's seat in 2021, not that she'll be defending it of course.  He's recently moved to Edinburgh. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Labour's Brexit nonsense has, I think, finally finished them for now in Scotland. I'm not surprised by McDougall's reasoning: Labour have long clung to tired arguments and, when it's clear that they lose them votes, have just kept shouting the same things, but louder.

I'm a bit of a renegade in that, while generally pro-Indy, my priority is staying in the EU for now; the last thing an independent Scotland needs is a land border with a non-EU rUK led by extremist right-wing bampots.

If the Tories had as many as three MPs I'd be gutted. Wake up, people!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Dave78 said:

I was about to post that it sounds like a bit of a win-win to me, as i'm not that impressed with Blackford.

Then i remembered who the deputy Westminster leader is. :lol:

Can we not get Robertson back somehow?

Hopefully if all goes well and we get an increased number of MPs elected shortly, then someone will challenge for the Westminster leadership such as Tam Sheppard or Joanna Cherry who are much more impressive than Blackford.

Why don't you like Kirsty Blackman ? I think she does OK. 

I strongly suspect that we will see Angus Robertson and Eilidh Whiteford standing for the SNP at the next Holyrood election. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  



×
×
  • Create New...