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General Election 2019

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1 minute ago, phart said:

Couldn't you just add and Murdoch and then the theory holds, no need to blow it apart when a minor adjustement. Or as an activist for Israel (he has falsely smeared people of denying the holocaust when they hadn't, a hasbara tactic.) who will not want Corbyn on the security council cause of how he weights the Israeli occupation of Palestine.

I've no doubt whatsoever what Ian Austin's motivations are or that he is "sympathetic" towards Israel. 

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2 minutes ago, aaid said:

Craig Murray is loop the loop. 

Fuck we weren't running rendition flights to torture folk, that's what he whistleblew.

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2 minutes ago, phart said:

Fuck we weren't running rendition flights to torture folk, that's what he whistleblew.

Being right on one thing doesn't automatically make you right on everything else.

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

Being right on one thing doesn't automatically make you right on everything else.

Sage advice. Just saying "loop the loop" what does that mean? What weight should we put on that?

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2 minutes ago, phart said:

Sage advice. Just saying "loop the loop" what does that mean? What weight should we put on that?

My opinion, it's worth what it's worth place as much or as little weight on it as you like.  

Hes not someone I find particularly trustworthy. 

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41 minutes ago, aaid said:

Craig Murray is loop the loop. 

Is that how you normally talk about people who may have had some mental health issues? Classy stuff.

 

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So this "Remain Alliance"...

Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru reveal remain election pact

So Lib Dems happy for an independence party to hoover up remain votes in Wales. But not Scotland!

In fact LibDems would rather prop up pro-Brexit Tories in Scotland, rather than pro-remain SNP.

What is going on in their heads?

Presumably, SNP would never stand aside as Piald would, just to get rid of a Tory.

But it's not a good look for the Lib Dems, looks like pure opportunism, they can't be that anti Brexit, or they'd stand aside without a pact.  

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2 minutes ago, exile said:

So this "Remain Alliance"...

Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru reveal remain election pact

So Lib Dems happy for an independence party to hoover up remain votes in Wales. But not Scotland!

In fact LibDems would rather prop up pro-Brexit Tories in Scotland, rather than pro-remain SNP.

What is going on in their heads?

Presumably, SNP would never stand aside as Piald would, just to get rid of a Tory.

But it's not a good look for the Lib Dems, looks like pure opportunism, they can't be that anti Brexit, or they'd stand aside without a pact.  

We must appreciate that Plaid are up against a far, far stronger opposition than we are up here. 

The electoral pact makes sense for them. 

Edited by ErsatzThistle

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11 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

We must appreciate that Plaid are up against a far, far stronger opposition than we are up here. 

The electoral pact makes sense for them. 

Yes it was not really a dig at Plaid, it's presumably the politics and geography of individual territories. 

Even if there was a Tory seat that the LibDems could more realistically take (?) the SNP could not be seen to be not contesting it. And having a LibDem in Westminster almost as bad for Scotland as a Tory, if the LibDems were to end up in bed with them anyway. 

I guess the main point is that any party can make any pact it likes, but the reason the LibDems are doing it is disingenuous, they are claiming it is pro-Remain "for the good of the country", but it can't be, because if that was the case, they would not split the remain vote in Scotland where the SNP had a chance of toppling a Tory.   

Edited by exile

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22 minutes ago, exile said:

Yes it was not really a dig at Plaid, it's presumably the politics and geography of individual territories. 

Even if there was a Tory seat that the LibDems could more realistically take (?) the SNP could not be seen to be not contesting it. And having a LibDem in Westminster almost as bad for Scotland as a Tory, if the LibDems were to end up in bed with them anyway. 

I guess the main point is that any party can make any pact it likes, but the reason the LibDems are doing it is disingenuous, they are claiming it is pro-Remain "for the good of the country", but it can't be, because if that was the case, they would not split the remain vote in Scotland where the SNP had a chance of toppling a Tory.   

I'm pretty sure I read that in the late sixties - early seventies, the old Liberal Party offered both the SNP and Plaid Cymru some kind of "alliance" which was turned down.

This looks like it's just a one off. 

Edited by ErsatzThistle

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1 hour ago, ErsatzThistle said:

First Scottish opinion poll for this election I beleive.

I'd take that right now.

How would it translate into seats? Guessing it'd be a near wipeout with a FPTP system? I could live with that.

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16 minutes ago, daviebee said:

How would it translate into seats? Guessing it'd be a near wipeout with a FPTP system? I could live with that.

According to this handy tool 

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament?election=2017&region=scotland&SNP=42&CON=22&LAB=12&LD=13&GRN=4&BREX=6#Scotland

Liberal Democrat gains
Fife North East    


SNP gains
Aberdeen South    
Angus   
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock   
Banff and Buchan   
Dumfries and Galloway  
Gordon   
Moray   
Ochil and South Perthshire 
Renfrewshire East    
Stirling    
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill    
East Lothian    
Glasgow North East    
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath    
Midlothian    
Rutherglen and Hamilton West    

 

Labout also have just sacked their third GE candidate in a fortnight. The Embra South West one was dropped for accusing JCQC of hating transgender people. 

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2 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

According to this handy tool 

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-parliament?election=2017&region=scotland&SNP=42&CON=22&LAB=12&LD=13&GRN=4&BREX=6#Scotland

Liberal Democrat gains
Fife North East    


SNP gains
Aberdeen South    
Angus   
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock   
Banff and Buchan   
Dumfries and Galloway  
Gordon   
Moray   
Ochil and South Perthshire 
Renfrewshire East    
Stirling    
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill    
East Lothian    
Glasgow North East    
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath    
Midlothian    
Rutherglen and Hamilton West    

 

Labout also have just sacked their third GE candidate in a fortnight. The Embra South West one was dropped for accusing JCQC of hating transgender people. 

Does that make 54.

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2 minutes ago, Eisegerwind said:

Does that make 54.

That would make 50 SNP, 3 Tory, 5 Lib Dem and 1 Labour.

Still too early to get our hopes up. A long campaign is ahead. 

Certainly are a lot of people in my local area who are worried about Brexit affecting their business and losing their European friends,  neighbours and co workers living here. 

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47 minutes ago, daviebee said:

How would it translate into seats? Guessing it'd be a near wipeout with a FPTP system? I could live with that.

Electoral Calculus gives it as SNP 50 (+15)  Lib Dem 5 (+1) Tories 3 (-10) Labour 1 (-6).

Stephen Geithens would lose in NE Fife.  Ian Murray, the last man standing for Labour.   John Lamont, Andrew Bowie and Fluffy hang on for the Tories. 

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27 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

That would make 50 SNP, 3 Tory, 5 Lib Dem and 1 Labour.

Still too early to get our hopes up. A long campaign is ahead. 

Certainly are a lot of people in my local area who are worried about Brexit affecting their business and losing their European friends,  neighbours and co workers living here. 

I had in my head SNP were on 39. How many of the other party votes are personal/candidate votes rather than party.

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21 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

That would make 50 SNP, 3 Tory, 5 Lib Dem and 1 Labour.

Still too early to get our hopes up. A long campaign is ahead. 

Certainly are a lot of people in my local area who are worried about Brexit affecting their business and losing their European friends,  neighbours and co workers living here. 

Does that take into account tactical voting though?

And, does it assume that the BP get an even spread across of 6% across every seat? That isn't going to happen, even if they stand candidates in every seat, which we don't know yet. They might average 6% but a big chunk of them will be HampdenLoon's fishermens friends up north. Well hopefully anyway.

I think this election is going to be more complicated than usual.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Does that take into account tactical voting though?

And, does it assume that the BP get an even spread across of 6% across every seat? That isn't going to happen, even if they stand candidates in every seat, which we don't know yet. They might average 6% but a big chunk of them will be HampdenLoon's fishermens friends up north. Well hopefully anyway.

I think this election is going to be more complicated than usual.

 

 

On Electoral Calculus you can play around with tactical voting percentages, you can even go down to individual seats if you're so minded.  The problem is what are you going to assume for the levels of tactical voting?   It really has the feel of playing around with the numbers looking for a set of numbers that gives you the result you want to - or don't want to - see rather than making any sort of realistic predictions.

Websites like Electoral Calculus don't simply take the poll numbers and then apply this across all seats in the country equally.  What they do is to basically take the polling numbers and then work out relative swings between the parties based on previous election results and use that to predict on a seat by seat basis what the result might be.  

If my maths are correct, then these polls compared to 2017 show a 6 point swing from Tory to SNP, a 10 point swing from Labour to SNP and a 0.5% swing from SNP to Lib Dem.   And then to work out the prediction, you have to do the swings between all the parties, e.g. Labour to Tory (1.5), Tory to Lib Dem (6.5), etc., etc.

That's pretty simplistic and I've no doubt that the actual algorithms are a lot more complicated but that's the basic principle.

For BXP, I can only assume that they're comparing against UKIP.    Actually, in Scotland in 2017, UKIP only picked up 5000 votes across the country so going from a starting point of zero, I also think to make any sense of BXP you need to look at UKIP in 2015 as the circumstances then are much closer to now than 2017 was. 

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2 hours ago, aaid said:

Electoral Calculus gives it as SNP 50 (+15)  Lib Dem 5 (+1) Tories 3 (-10) Labour 1 (-6).

Stephen Geithens would lose in NE Fife.  Ian Murray, the last man standing for Labour.   John Lamont, Andrew Bowie and Fluffy hang on for the Tories. 

Wonder why that Ian Murray guy is so popular as he always comes across as a total fkin knob-end. I'm hoping this election will be the asteroid that blasts Labourosaurus out of existence north of the border and puts them in the dustbin of history where they belong.

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1 minute ago, daviebee said:

Wonder why that Ian Murray guy is so popular as he always comes across as a total fkin knob-end. I'm hoping this election will be the asteroid that blasts Labourosaurus out of existence north of the border and puts them in the dustbin of history where they belong.

I think it's a combination of the constituency having a large core of what could be described as middle class new Labour types.  He was also heavily involved with Foundation of Hearts which will fit in the constituency.  Is is actually currently the safest seat in Scotland. 

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Former Scottish Labour MP Michael McCann is backing the Tories at this election.

He has serious anger management problems if his past conduct towards the then six SNP members in the HoC and towards Yes activists in his constituency is anything to go by.

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