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General Election 2019

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25 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

There is only one pollster folk should keep an eye on and that is panelbase, if you see the snp start falling from 39% of the vote which they had the last poll and the tories and labour quietly increase their vote, its “tatties ower the side”

 

what sort of result would it take for NS to 1.go straight for indy ref or 2. Stand down? I believe both are possible this election

What is it about Panelbase that you think makes them believable over and above all the other polling companies?

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4 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

There is only one pollster folk should keep an eye on and that is panelbase, if you see the snp start falling from 39% of the vote which they had the last poll and the tories and labour quietly increase their vote, its “tatties ower the side”

 

what sort of result would it take for NS to 1.go straight for indy ref or 2. Stand down? I believe both are possible this election

Frankly, I'd be more inclined to question the rationale of the Scottish people if the Tories increase their vote share in Scotland. They are the most untrustworthy party around who will screw Scotland over all over again. What have they done for Scotland? Two halls....sod all and fuck all.

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4 hours ago, aaid said:

What is it about Panelbase that you think makes them believable over and above all the other polling companies?

They have been bang on the money(scotland specific) and their polling has been steady. Be alarmed if the snp start to slide with them  

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8 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

They have been bang on the money(scotland specific) and their polling has been steady. Be alarmed if the snp start to slide with them  

They weren't bang on the money in 2016 or 2017.

Survation were closer in 2017 and YouGov in 2016. 

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8 hours ago, exile said:

And the media will lap it up, it will be the big two, plus Jo Swinson show. 

R4 just had 2 Tories, 1 or 2 Labour plus Swinson (2 tories, one loyalist, one rebel, that's balance) 

Predict lots of airtime for Corbyn promoting policies we already have in Scotland (that Labour in Scotland opposed) ? 

Much like 2017 then.

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2 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said:

He's a weasel.

I’ve a bit of time for him its a pitty he likes wimen and dramming more than he should, he would have gone a lot further 

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8 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

There is only one pollster folk should keep an eye on and that is panelbase, if you see the snp start falling from 39% of the vote which they had the last poll and the tories and labour quietly increase their vote, its “tatties ower the side”

 

what sort of result would it take for NS to 1.go straight for indy ref or 2. Stand down? I believe both are possible this election

I've been pretty sure that Bojo is going to piss getting a majority but it might not be as clear cut.  It looks like they could lose some of their traditional seats to the Lib Dems or, less likely, Labour in Leave areas.  I think they could hoover up traditional Labour seats on the back of Brexit like Stoke but it would depend if the locals deem the deal sufficient or if Brexit could take a skelp of their votes.  

It would be absolutely mind-bogglingly fuck witted if Scotland hand them the seats they need for a majority but as things are you never know.  If SNP don't get their vote out then who knows.  The other thing is the Tory message 'get brexit done' is simple, if disingenuous, but some folk are daft enough to believe that'll be Brexit completed rather than it actually just being the end of the beginning.  

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28 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

They should be careful what they wish for. Ian Blackford isnt the most popular SNP MP as has been demonstrated on here. Getting rid of him may give way to better representation at Westminster. 

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Better together back in action then?  A unionist alliance.  Bunch of shysters the lot of them.  Three cheeks of the same over-populated arse.

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3 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

They should be careful what they wish for. Ian Blackford isnt the most popular SNP MP as has been demonstrated on here. Getting rid of him may give way to better representation at Westminster. 

He’s actually done really good for his constituents m, hopefully that will pull him through

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I'll be voting SNP, we have a good MP was councillor before was a good councillor too. Always see him about working. Even if it wasn't a crucial election and i was neutral I would favour the SNP candidate. I know the Tory guy and he is sound as well but he's riding the wrong horse for me at the moment.

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1 hour ago, phart said:

I'll be voting SNP, we have a good MP was councillor before was a good councillor too. Always see him about working. Even if it wasn't a crucial election and i was neutral I would favour the SNP candidate. I know the Tory guy and he is sound as well but he's riding the wrong horse for me at the moment.

It always makes the difference the actual candidate has a bit of go about him, the guy standing for us is young and hopefully driven, doesn't look like a politician he reminds me on the canadian PM just a younger version, Paul Robertson is  his name

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I've seen two SNP leaflets - John Nicholson and Stephen Gethins - possibly done before any national campaign, but both don't even mention independence. 

SNP should make this referendum about independence and we'll see to a certain extent if people want it (or another referendum).

If they stand as a Stop Brexit /lite Lib Dems, then how will that attract the stay at home/apathetic/2017 SNP supporters to vote?

I'm willing to wait and see but if the SNP are going to end up running a campaign similar to 2017 then they may well lose seats! 

Awfae lot, about 15% are 2-1000 votes in it. So depending on local circumstances, candidates, tactical voting could see a wild set of results. 

Awaiting the odds, but SNP under 50 looks a good punt. 

Polls over estimated SNP support at 2017 and they ended up polling 37% on the day. The  SNP EU election was a success mostly thhanks to the Brexit Party's 13% taking votes from The Tories, but if Garage doesn't stand candidates in certain Scottish seats then any hopes of the SNP limiting the Tories to 1-3 MPs is wishful thinking, IMO.

Still I'll wait and see how things and manifestos develop before predicting. If you're a scunnered small uunionist why would you vote SNP when the Libs basically are your home. 

Edited by weekevie04

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14 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

 

Polls over estimated SNP support at 2017 and they ended up polling 37% on the day. The  SNP EU election was a success mostly thhanks to the Brexit Party's 13% taking votes from The Tories, but if Garage doesn't stand candidates in certain Scottish seats then any hopes of the SNP limiting the Tories to 1-3 MPs is wishful thinking, IMO.

The pollsters all had the SNP in the low to mid 40s in 2017, however, if they're smart then that should be reflected in polling figures now, ie, they'll adjust the figures to take that into account, so conceivably, the SNP figures might be a little underestimated, *if* they can get the vote out.

With support for Indy touching 50% fairly consistently they should have enough in the tank but I suspect it will all be about getting the vote out. 

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4 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Trump flouts with electoral convention to publically back his pals Boris and Nige...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/donald-trump-criticises-johnson-s-brexit-deal-1.4068478?mode=amp

Possibly good news for Corbyn???

Yes indeed good news for Corbyn keep it coming ya clown incidentally did anyone see the bbc show bojo the clown get massively booed at addenbrookes hospital yesterday thought not the Tory propaganda machine in action yesterday nothing to see here move on 

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5 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Trump flouts with electoral convention to publically back his pals Boris and Nige...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/donald-trump-criticises-johnson-s-brexit-deal-1.4068478?mode=amp

Possibly good news for Corbyn???

Yes the London media were wringing their hands over the nasty Trump breaking convention, conveniently forgetting that Obama weighted in for Better Together in 2014 with no complaint. 

52 minutes ago, wheres the pies said:

Yes indeed good news for Corbyn keep it coming ya clown incidentally did anyone see the bbc show bojo the clown get massively booed at addenbrookes hospital yesterday thought not the Tory propaganda machine in action yesterday nothing to see here move on 

Imagine if we didn't have social media, we would never know this. 

No wonder in the old days when you had one TV channel, people sat quietly eating their cereal and voted for the establishment. 

  • Upvote 1

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11 hours ago, weekevie04 said:

I've seen two SNP leaflets - John Nicholson and Stephen Gethins - possibly done before any national campaign, but both don't even mention independence. 

 

I think Stephen Gethins' jacket is on a shoogly nail. Can't see SNP holding that one.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

I think Stephen Gethins' jacket is on a shoogly nail. Can't see SNP holding that one.

You can toss a coin for that one, however it's worth pointing out that the Lib Dem vote in 2017 was actually less than it was in 2015 when Gethins had a majority of about 4000. 

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

You can toss a coin for that one, however it's worth pointing out that the Lib Dem vote in 2017 was actually less than it was in 2015 when Gethins had a majority of about 4000. 

There are a lot of Tory voters who don't want to leave the EU. About 10,000 voted tory last time, I think. A lot of them will go LibDim this time round. Wouldn't surprise me if they win by a couple of thousand.

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