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General Election 2019


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On 11/26/2019 at 1:42 PM, Nobby said:

That's the problem, a lot of people wont. I'm from a family of pretty  much lifetime labour voters not one of us would vote for a Corbyn Labour party this time round . I wouldn't trust him with the budget for my xmas party let alone the country.  My sister is voting conservative which is a first in her lifetime !!

Sounds to me like you and yer sister are a pair of roasters.

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The latest yougov poll this morning is depressing but I'm still hoping for a Labour surge In England.

I don't think Labour have done enough to drive home the message that Johnson was complicit and actively played a role in the last 9 years of austerity. It's clear Johnson has tried to differentiate himself from that and it's almost like he's leading another party rather than the one of David Cameron and Theresa May.

 

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29 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

take with a pinch of salt however elections sometimes run on moods, the mood this election feels different 
 

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1442737-stv-poll-snp-heading-for-landslide-of-scottish-seats/

That YouGov MRP poll from yesterday had the SNP 1-3% behind in all the NE former heartland seats. They were all tossups and so was Ayr. So if the SNP get the vote out there's a chance of taking them all or most. 

Aye , think Mori had before the last election SNP on something similar yet we all know what happened. I'll be astonished if Angus votes for Hair again though. 

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40 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

take with a pinch of salt however elections sometimes run on moods, the mood this election feels different 
 

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1442737-stv-poll-snp-heading-for-landslide-of-scottish-seats/

Never trust opinion polls especially when they start telling you what you want to hear. They are designed to manipulate public opinion rather than measure it. It's fairly blatant what they are trying to do here.

 

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34 minutes ago, Mox said:

The latest yougov poll this morning is depressing but I'm still hoping for a Labour surge In England.

I don't think Labour have done enough to drive home the message that Johnson was complicit and actively played a role in the last 9 years of austerity. It's clear Johnson has tried to differentiate himself from that and it's almost like he's leading another party rather than the one of David Cameron and Theresa May.

 

I’ve seen a fair bit of internal Labour stuff this last week or so, particularly local to here, & I think it’s fair to say there’s an increasing feeling of despair in the party.

I think it was Labour List who described him as made of Teflon. There just seems to be virtually nothing that deflects voters away from him. I think it’s a bit of an indictment of the modern world in some ways but canvassers are reporting that nobody seems to care that he’s an obvious liar, has the morals of a sewer rat, will sell off his own granny, etc. It’s not that they disagree, they just don’t care. People see him either as the man who will ‘get this Brexit sorted’, some sort of modern day Winston Churchill or just a better bet than Corbyn who is going to arm Momentum with AK-47s & stick an ISIS flag up in Downing Street.

It really does make me lose hope to be honest. 

Edited by Huddersfield
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45 minutes ago, Mox said:

Sounds to me like you and yer sister are a pair of roasters.

nah just have different views from you. The fact that Labour  werent even favourite going in to this election given the last five years of moronic tory rule highlights who the roaster is

  

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A big health check is required on the You Gov MRP analysis.   I'm not saying it's a load of nonsense but nor should it be taken with more reverence than any other poll.

Its certainly true that it covers a lot more of the population than standard polls, I think the YouGov survey covers about 100,000 people as opposed to a standard poll which covers around 2000.   On that basis it should prove more accurate than the other polls but in reality what it should mean is not necessarily more accurate but with a smaller margin of error.

What isn't true is that in coming up with the 100,000 samples and using that to produce seat by seat analyses that some how they've carried out representative samples in *all* constituencies.  What they do is to use this data aggregated with other demographic data to try and use the nation-wide polling data to more accurately predict the outcome in each seat.   That in itself is a level of sophistication higher than taking the headline numbers - from say, Ipsos Mori - and plugging that into Electoral Calculus.  Don't make the mistake of thinking though that they've polled loads of people in each constituency, they haven't.

Each of the seat by seat projections come with their own margins of error, some as high as +- 8%, normal polls have a range of +-3%.

That's important in particular in this election as there are so many tight seats.

The other thing is that - and YouGov confirmed this - it doesn't take much of a swing from Tory to Labour to move this from a comfortable Tory majority to a hung parliament.

It's said that YouGov - using this model - were the only polling company to predict a hung parliament in 2017.  That's true, but...  They got some of their individual projections wrong, underestimated the seats the Tories would get and overestimated the SNP.   They also only changed that projection on the day of the election, until that point they'd not picked up the late swing to Labour.

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1 hour ago, Nobby said:

nah just have different views from you. The fact that Labour  werent even favourite going in to this election given the last five years of moronic tory rule highlights who the roaster is

  

I am genuinely amazed that there has not been a breakthrough by another party in England. And by that I do not mean UKIP or Brexit Party whose only agendas revolve around exiting the EU. I am surprised nobody has thought about starting a party to offer an alternative to the same old Tory or Labour garbage. Maybe a form of a party similar to SNP or Plaid Cymru who would look after English people's interests first and foremost. I think that would go down well as long as they were coherent on all issues such as NHS, Police, Transport, Taxes, Education etc etc.

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18 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I am genuinely amazed that there has not been a breakthrough by another party in England. And by that I do not mean UKIP or Brexit Party whose only agendas revolve around exiting the EU. I am surprised nobody has thought about starting a party to offer an alternative to the same old Tory or Labour garbage. Maybe a form of a party similar to SNP or Plaid Cymru who would look after English people's interests first and foremost. I think that would go down well as long as they were coherent on all issues such as NHS, Police, Transport, Taxes, Education etc etc.

Probably because you don't really understand England.

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Okay it is a Scottish view point on English matters but come on isn't anyone down there asking surely there is a better option than Tory or Labour (and not UKIP or Brexit).

Why do you suggest that BREXIT/UKIP is not a better option for people in England?   Now for me, its not something that floats my vote but there a significant minority for who it does have some appeal.

Independence is a red line for me, so until they at least softened that, I couldn't vote for them.   I also think that Corbyn is an idiot and couldn't run a menage and that organisationally they are all over the place.    The only thing that makes UK Labour look like a well run machine is in comparison to Scottish Labour.   

Their policies, by and large, I have no problem with.   

That said, the alternative fills me with horror. 

 

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

Why do you suggest that BREXIT/UKIP is not a better option for people in England?   Now for me, its not something that floats my vote but there a significant minority for who it does have some appeal.


 

Purely, because it is based around exiting the EU and has no clear plans or consideration for the issues I mentioned earlier. 

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2 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Purely, because it is based around exiting the EU and has no clear plans or consideration for the issues I mentioned earlier. 

I hate to break it to you but a large number of people in England *really* want to leave the EU and *really* don't care about the consequences of doing so.   Their view is that it will be better and if it isn't then so be it, at least we'll have left.

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1 minute ago, aaid said:

I hate to break it to you but a large number of people in England *really* want to leave the EU and *really* don't care about the consequences of doing so.   Their view is that it will be better and if it isn't then so be it, at least we'll have left.

I get that. My point is that when (as it looks like it will) Brexit happens at the end of January. What then will Brexit and UKIP stand for?

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I get that. My point is that when (as it looks like it will) Brexit happens at the end of January. What then will Brexit and UKIP stand for?

The problem is that under the Westminster FPTP system its very difficult for smaller insurgent parties to break through.   The whole thing is set up to support a two party system, from the Tories and Whigs through to the Tories and Liberals and then Tories and Labour.  The Liberals manage to keep a foothold largely because they have their own traditional geographical strongholds.

That makes it very difficult for someone like Brexit/UKIP to break through so they'll probably fade on the vine post Brexit but the more general appeal of a party like that is there for a minority of folk.  What happens to that sector of the electorate is anyone's guess, but most likely they'll just get absorbed back into the Tory and Labour parties which is where they came from in the first place.



 

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Neale Hanvey has been dropped by the SNP as candidate for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

Party business convener Kirsten Oswald says "Antisemitism has no place in Scotland and no place in the SNP"

All support for his campaign has been pulled but he will still be on the ballot paper

Labour's Lesley Laird is the sitting MP and polls had Hanvey ahead

No details of the "antisemitism" have been released however the decision has been made after consultation with the Jewish community

Probably something anti Israel again rather than antisemitism IMO but it appears it was something on his facebook

One of his favourite quotes on FB is from Martin Niemoller which contains "then they came for the Jews and i did not speak out"

 

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14 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Neale Hanvey has been dropped by the SNP as candidate for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

Party business convener Kirsten Oswald says "Antisemitism has no place in Scotland and no place in the SNP"

All support for his campaign has been pulled but he will still be on the ballot paper

Labour's Lesley Laird is the sitting MP and polls had Hanvey ahead

No details of the "antisemitism" have been released however the decision has been made after consultation with the Jewish community

Probably something anti Israel again rather than antisemitism IMO but it appears it was something on his facebook

One of his favourite quotes on FB is from Martin Niemoller which contains "then they came for the Jews and i did not speak out"

 

That's a gift for Labour.

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3 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Okay it is a Scottish view point on English matters but come on isn't anyone down there asking surely there is a better option than Tory or Labour (and not UKIP or Brexit).

Change UK? or whatever it's called now....

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5 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Never trust opinion polls especially when they start telling you what you want to hear. They are designed to manipulate public opinion rather than measure it. It's fairly blatant what they are trying to do here.

 

Yes i am well aware of that, i said earlier that the panel base polling is the one to watch for trends, slowly the snp have been increasing their percentage, i also think the tory vote is being over stated, my gues is 24% 

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It is alleged Mr Hanvey shared a post on Facebook in 2016 which included an image of billionaire George Soros as a puppet master controlling world leaders.

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