General Election 2019

[King Of Paisley]

1 hour ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Just been hearing about that seriously dirty campaign the Tories had been waging in Lanark & Hamilton East. They definetly played the "orange card" and went out of their way to remind voters in certain areas of the constituency that the SNP's Angela Crawley is a Catholic.

Tellingly, Crawley had this to say about the Labour candidate but not the Tory one.

 

Indeed. The Tory was making comments about Larkhall being a Unionist, royalist Rangers supporting area. No shit Sherlock but it was dog whistling politics at its worst. 

 

[aaid]

14 minutes ago, King Of Paisley said:

Indeed. The Tory was making comments about Larkhall being a Unionist, royalist Rangers supporting area. No shit Sherlock but it was dog whistling politics at its worst. 

 

Clearly didn't work for them.   I noticed at the declaration that Angela Crawley gave the Labour candidate a big hug.  

[EddardStark]

I see 15.5m chose not to vote in the GE. Scary stuff.

 

[ParisInAKilt]

9 minutes ago, EddardStark said:

I see 15.5m chose not to vote in the GE. Scary stuff.

 

Good on them. 

[ParisInAKilt]

Haha seen that coming. 

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-silence/#more-113470

[killiefaetheferry]

52 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Haha seen that coming. 

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-silence/#more-113470

He called some guy a cunt. Which is not necessarily against twitter rules and has his supporters asking Twitter to review.

[TDYER63]

1 hour ago, EddardStark said:

I see 15.5m chose not to vote in the GE. Scary stuff.

 

The percentage turnout, at 67.3%,  isn't much different from any other election. 
2017   69%

2015  66.4%

2010. 65.3%

For a miserable day in December  I think 67.3% is quite impressive. 
 

 

[ParisInAKilt]

30 minutes ago, killiefaetheferry said:

He called some guy a cunt. Which is not necessarily against twitter rules and has his supporters asking Twitter to review.

They’d be hardly anyone on Twitter if that was the standard. 

And to be fair, the guys a journalist and on twitter so he probably is a cunt. 

[aaid]

37 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

They’d be hardly anyone on Twitter if that was the standard. 

And to be fair, the guys a journalist and on twitter so he probably is a cunt. 

And of course it was all to do with trans and GRA and nothing to do with independence.  Smart move from Stu. 

[ParisInAKilt]

24 minutes ago, aaid said:

And of course it was all to do with trans and GRA and nothing to do with independence.  Smart move from Stu. 

He should have know better, Twitter have banned folk for similar stuff on this issue. But fair enough, it’s something he cares about. Twitter is so toxic though, not a great place to win hearts and minds, on Independence and GRA.

[phart]

Now Finkelstein doesn't like BDS as it isn't a legal 2 state solution and i must admit he has convinced me, however.

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by phart

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, EddardStark said:

I see 15.5m chose not to vote in the GE. Scary stuff.

 

It's no really that scary though is it?

It's not like that is unusual.

65 to 70% is fairly standard.

 

[ParisInAKilt]

16 minutes ago, phart said:

Now Finkelstein doesn't like BDS as it isn't a legal 2 state solution and i must admit he has convinced me, however.

 

Didn’t Trump just do something similar as well?

Imagine calling yourself a Zionist. Twat.

[hampden_loon2878]

Scotland has independence as close as ever, as i have always said, we need to get the Euro sceptic, yes voters back on board, how we do this? I don’t know. I was talking to my mother yesterday, yes voter and previous snp voter, she voted tory which i was shocked about,, all down to brexit,,, this is someone who was a single mother of three, struggled a lot to provide to me and my siblings. When i asked her “so is brexit the most important thing that concerns you” to which she took second thought. That will be the last she votes for them (i blood hope) as i could see she regretted it. Brexit blindness has a weird effect on folk. One last push to win back previous yes voters while retaining current support 👍

[Orraloon]

6 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Scotland has independence as close as ever, as i have always said, we need to get the Euro sceptic, yes voters back on board, how we do this? I don’t know. I was talking to my mother yesterday, yes voter and previous snp voter, she voted tory which i was shocked about,, all down to brexit,,, this is someone who was a single mother of three, struggled a lot to provide to me and my siblings. When i asked her “so is brexit the most important thing that concerns you” to which she took second thought. That will be the last she votes for them (i blood hope) as i could see she regretted it. Brexit blindness has a weird effect on folk. One last push to win back previous yes voters while retaining current support 👍

Would getting rid of Nicola help? 

 

[ParisInAKilt]

9 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Scotland has independence as close as ever, as i have always said, we need to get the Euro sceptic, yes voters back on board, how we do this? I don’t know. I was talking to my mother yesterday, yes voter and previous snp voter, she voted tory which i was shocked about,, all down to brexit,,, this is someone who was a single mother of three, struggled a lot to provide to me and my siblings. When i asked her “so is brexit the most important thing that concerns you” to which she took second thought. That will be the last she votes for them (i blood hope) as i could see she regretted it. Brexit blindness has a weird effect on folk. One last push to win back previous yes voters while retaining current support 👍

Post Indy EU vote?

Should keep most happy. 

[aaid]

The more you look at this election the more it looks completely crazy.

Take this as an example.   The previous Tory MP was Charlie Elphicke, he had the whip suspended due to allegations of sexual assault against two women.   He was subsequently charged in November.   His wife fought the seat and was elected.

In Burton, something similar happened with the previous MP resigning as a minister over "sexting" allegations, his wife has now replaced him as MP although in that case, she is divorcing him.

[Ally Bongo]

The fucking odious Christine Jardine has taken over the role vacated by both Kezia Dugdale and Ruth the Mooth as Chancellor House Jock

Revelling in it she does not rule out standing for Lib Dem leader

Please let it be so

[Orraloon]

3 minutes ago, aaid said:

The more you look at this election the more it looks completely crazy.

Take this as an example.   The previous Tory MP was Charlie Elphicke, he had the whip suspended due to allegations of sexual assault against two women.   He was subsequently charged in November.   His wife fought the seat and was elected.

In Burton, something similar happened with the previous MP resigning as a minister over "sexting" allegations, his wife has now replaced him as MP although in that case, she is divorcing him.

Maybe Moira McGlashan should have stood?

 

[aaid]

30 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Scotland has independence as close as ever, as i have always said, we need to get the Euro sceptic, yes voters back on board, how we do this? I don’t know. I was talking to my mother yesterday, yes voter and previous snp voter, she voted tory which i was shocked about,, all down to brexit,,, this is someone who was a single mother of three, struggled a lot to provide to me and my siblings. When i asked her “so is brexit the most important thing that concerns you” to which she took second thought. That will be the last she votes for them (i blood hope) as i could see she regretted it. Brexit blindness has a weird effect on folk. One last push to win back previous yes voters while retaining current support 👍

I'm going to bang on a but more about polls and that the Euro Sceptic Yes voters are back on board to a greater or lesser extent.   That might not seem like that to you in Banff and Buchan and it certainly wasn't enough to win back the seat so you may be right.  However, in a referendum, its not about seats its about votes across the whole country, so if for every 1 Yes voter in Banff and Buchan who will vote No because they're eurosceptics, 2 voters in Edinburgh South West change their minds the other way because they're pro-EU, we're winning.

Back to that Survation poll from last week Indy intention by EU referendum vote (Leave/Remain/Did Not Vote), 

Yes - 35/49/56
No - 63/44/29

As I pointed out on the other thread you need to look at what those percentages mean in terms of actual votes cast in the two referendums.   

If you extrapolate this poll, then based on the number of people who voted Leave in 2016, 356413 would vote Yes now.

Then look at the split for now based on 2014 voting (Yes/No/Did Not Vote)

Yes 83/12/5
No 10/83/6

Obviously more people vote in the 2014 than the 2016 referendum and so for comparison the 2014 result based on the 2016 turnout would have seem 

Yes - 1197742
No - 1481771
Total -2679513

Based on that the 12% of Yes voters from 2104 who'd now vote No is 143729.    

So people who voted Leave in 2014 but would vote Yes = 356413, people who voted Yes in 2014 but would vote No now = 143729.

Now I'm not suggesting that everyone who has changed from Yes to No has changed their minds because solely because of Brexit but even if that were the case, Yes is not so Leave unfriendly as is being made out.  The quandary is that if you go after that 143729 former Yes voters, you do so at the risk of alienating the similar numbers that have gone the other way.



 

[ThistleWhistle]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Scotland has independence as close as ever, as i have always said, we need to get the Euro sceptic, yes voters back on board, how we do this? I don’t know. I was talking to my mother yesterday, yes voter and previous snp voter, she voted tory which i was shocked about,, all down to brexit,,, this is someone who was a single mother of three, struggled a lot to provide to me and my siblings. When i asked her “so is brexit the most important thing that concerns you” to which she took second thought. That will be the last she votes for them (i blood hope) as i could see she regretted it. Brexit blindness has a weird effect on folk. One last push to win back previous yes voters while retaining current support 👍

I have a couple of mates in Stoke who voted Tory and are now sharing 'Tory Bad' stuff on Facebook.  It's proper mental.  

[ErsatzThistle]

I see that Duncan Hothersall and former Labour candidate Mary Galbraith are both going stark raving bonkers about the SNP on twitter right now. 

People like those two are part of the reason why their party is so fucked.

[kumnio]

5 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

I see that Duncan Hothersall and former Labour candidate Mary Galbraith are both going stark raving bonkers about the SNP on twitter right now. 

People like those two are part of the reason why their party is so fucked.

He is a genuine lunatic fuck. He was moaning about Labour HQ ignoring Scottish Labour, he must have had dozens of ironic type comments, and couldn't see it.

[hampden_loon2878]

On 12/17/2019 at 10:48 AM, Orraloon said:

Would getting rid of Nicola help? 

 

No but at the same time IMO her fronting an Indy ref will have us lose, there would need to be another strong character for her to stand along side, even disagree with ir play devil’s advocate when required, who could fit this position? I honestly don't know. Someone who possibly supported the union at some point 

Edited December 18, 2019 by hampden_loon2878

[Orraloon]

43 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

No but at the same time IMO her fronting an Indy ref will have us lose, there would need to be another strong character for her to stand along side, even disagree with ir play devil’s advocate when required, who could fit this position? I honestly don't know. Someone who possibly supported the union at some point 

How about the Queen? We could try to get her on board by trying to persuade her that Scotland being independent would make no difference to her being head of state.