General Election 2019

[TDYER63]

5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:.

The Tories can say No (as they are not legally obliged just now to do otherwise) but soon that position will become untenable. I mean since 2014 there has been three general elections and one Scottish election and each one has been won by the SNP by some distance.

I wouldnt bank on it. At the Tory manifesto launch he said:

‘ I can guarantee that we will reject any request from the SNP government to hold an independence referendum.  There will be no negotiation - we will mark that letter return to sender and be done with it ‘. 

The arrogance of the man is truly astonishing and this win will have done nothing to temper it. I just hope he fucks up in a big enough way that the rest of Scotland finally wakes up to the stark reality of him in charge. The Tories have won the election despite him , not because of him. Most people are fed up of Brexit and IMO voting conservative , for a lot of them, was simply the quickest way to move on. 

[Caledonian Craig]

2 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I wouldnt bank on it. At the Tory manifesto launch he said:

‘ I can guarantee that we will reject any request from the SNP government to hold an independence referendum.  There will be no negotiation - we will mark that letter return to sender and be done with it ‘. 

The arrogance of the man is truly astonishing and this win will have done nothing to temper it. I just hope he fucks up in a big enough way that the rest of Scotland finally wakes up to the stark reality of him in charge. The Tories have won the election despite him , not because of him. Most people are fed up of Brexit and IMO voting conservative , for a lot of them, was simply the quickest way to move on. 

Like I said he can carry on saying No but. like Keith Brown said, the more he takes this stance the more it fuels the Yes vote. People who may be waiverers will see how wrong a stance it is and become Yes voters to make independence all the more likely. It will do us no harm to wait and let him feed the Yes vote as at present polls still have Yes at best in the high 40s %.

[mccaughey85]

49 minutes ago, aaid said:

It wasn't a bomb, it was a bomb scare and it was widely covered on Thursday, it was even on the UK News at lunchtime.

Still, bang on with your fake theories based on no evidence.

 

There was a controlled explosion according to the BBC website. To me that's quite serious, if they hadn't of detected it then there might of been deaths or injuries depending on the size of the bomb. 

Ppl don't do these things just for a laugh, usually it's a lunatic or fanatic who has a serious issue with something. 

Either way it's not exactly been big news across the UK and given the political situation in Scotland atm then it's quite a serious act imo.

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

There was a controlled explosion according to the BBC website. To me that's quite serious, if they hadn't of detected it then there might of been deaths or injuries depending on the size of the bomb. 

Ppl don't do these things just for a laugh, usually it's a lunatic or fanatic who has a serious issue with something. 

Either way it's not exactly been big news across the UK and given the political situation in Scotland atm then it's quite a serious act imo.

It wasn't a bomb, FFS, it was a suspicious device on which they did a controlled explosion, there was no chance of anyone dying or being injured.   

Any halfwit can put together something that looks like a bomb to cause alarm and/or disruption.

The person allegedly responsible, was arrested on Thursday, charged on Friday and has been remanded.  It doesn't sound like the police had to look too hard to find him.   It's a live court case so there won't be any more reporting until it comes to court.

His name is Peter Conoboy.  I don't know about you but that doesn't scream pure hun loyalist to me.

[mccaughey85]

2 minutes ago, aaid said:

It wasn't a bomb, FFS, it was a suspicious device on which they did a controlled explosion, there was no chance of anyone dying or being injured.   

Any halfwit can put together something that looks like a bomb to cause alarm and/or disruption.

The person allegedly responsible, was arrested on Thursday, charged on Friday and has been remanded.  It doesn't sound like the police had to look too hard to find him.   It's a live court case so there won't be any more reporting until it comes to court.

His name is Peter Conoboy.  I don't know about you but that doesn't scream pure hun loyalist to me.

Lol settle down, I don't understand how there can be a controlled explosion if it's not an actual bomb. Maybe you can explain that to me as I am genuinely interested.

[aaid]

Just now, mccaughey85 said:

Lol settle down, I don't understand how there can be a controlled explosion if it's not an actual bomb. Maybe you can explain that to me as I am genuinely interested.

A controlled explosion is carried out by the bomb squad.  They will place their own small explosive charge on the suspect package and detonate that.  If it contains a bomb, then that will also be detonated as a result.  If there's no bomb in the package then whatever is in it will be blown up but not to an extent that any evidence is destroyed completely.

The police said afterwards that the device wasn't viable, which means that there weren't any explosives.

 

[exile]

56 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

I wouldnt bank on it. At the Tory manifesto launch he said:

‘ I can guarantee that we will reject any request from the SNP government to hold an independence referendum.  There will be no negotiation - we will mark that letter return to sender and be done with it ‘. 

The arrogance of the man is truly astonishing and this win will have done nothing to temper it. I just hope he fucks up in a big enough way that the rest of Scotland finally wakes up to the stark reality of him in charge. The Tories have won the election despite him , not because of him. Most people are fed up of Brexit and IMO voting conservative , for a lot of them, was simply the quickest way to move on. 

'Guarantee'? I think he could be bluffing there. It's kneejerk. They (Downing St) haven't had time to think through an indy strategy, I'd wager. I'l just be now appearing as a slightly tricky fly in the ointment, they'll try to bat away for now. But I think we have yet to see what a cummings style assault on indy will be. The man who more or less said Northern Ireland could f off into the sea.  

There is also a chance (however small) that Johnson will not be as extreme as some of his opponents make out. He player the Brexiteer to gain profile, became Foreign Secretary, then PM. He outmanoeuvered the real Brexiteers to get his 'oftish, messy 'deal' accepted. Now he has a huge mandate he can call his own. He could go whichever way he likes.  

When he was mayor of London, he did some ordinary, popular things, that got him re-elected. He actually stood up to the Government on immigration (at least for some categories of people) - as someone said he is socially liberal in some ways. I am not being an apologist for Johnson or his racism or do whistling etc. but just looking more closely at him in a 'know thy enemy' sense.  

Also I do think he has some personal crossover appeal - again, as seen in London - I am sure there are some who would never have voted for Hunt, Gove, May, Javid, IDS, etc. who would go soft and voted Boris. Again, i am not praising his character, but just acknowledging the reality of his electability. 

I agree with your last sentence. The Tories used an unspent ()and cross party) passion for getting Brexit done to sluice in a Tory victory. Clearly, with or without hindsight, the election was not entirely to Labour's or LibDem's advantage. SNP has been vindicated for risking the election and coming out stronger. 

[mccaughey85]

10 minutes ago, aaid said:

A controlled explosion is carried out by the bomb squad.  They will place their own small explosive charge on the suspect package and detonate that.  If it contains a bomb, then that will also be detonated as a result.  If there's no bomb in the package then whatever is in it will be blown up but not to an extent that any evidence is destroyed completely.

The police said afterwards that the device wasn't viable, which means that there weren't any explosives.

 

Ok cheers for that info, yeh it's not really a big deal then tbf. 

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

Ok cheers for that info, yeh it's not really a big deal then tbf. 

When it comes to court we'll be able to see what - if any - motivation was behind it.

It's when people start planting actual bombs that you need to worry and thankfully there's been none of that.

[ThistleWhistle]

8 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No I disagree. I would say it had far mote to do with the fact she was the leader of the Lib Dems whose stance on Brexit was to revoke Article 50 and said they would never allow an IndyRef2. Even I am not too well clued up on GRA and could not give a stuff about it.

The original response was to the suggestion that the positive result possibly gave some sort of countenance of GRA within the SNP vote  I believe is stretching it as agree it is barely on most folks radar.  

In addition, the only person who really went public on it lost their seat and the results locally didn't represent what their party achieved nationally.  Her constituency also voted 70% remain and over 60% no so their polices should have been right in their sweet spot.  Locally there were grumbles that she was never there and only went to her constituency when she thought it was squeaky bum time which again is likely to have played the most significant part.  From looking at the result it would seem that essentially 2500 of the Labour vote and 1500 of the Lib Dem vote moved to SNP, plus the majority of the additional turnout, so on the face of it good for independence but still only 38% voted for independence supporting parties and down on 2015.

On the one hand you could also say she lost a majority of 10% since last election whereas Joanna Cherry, who was probably the most public in criticising GRA, majority is through the roof pretty much hovering up Labour votes.  On the other hand, 19000  votes is pretty much where Jo Swinson has been constantly apart from 2017 where it was 21000 so it wasn't a vote winner nor been a vote loser to their core either.    

Although it isn't on the radar now, in terms of the push for independence, this is something that needs to be handled very carefully for all sides with everyone with a stake in it involved in the discussion.   This is Joanna Cherry's seemingly rather reasonable position,  and someone who has campaigned for the LGBT community, but when she's having to watch her back internally for voicing these concerns, plus being smeared as a homophobe online despite being a lesbian, sh!t could go nuclear very quickly.    

https://www.holyrood.com/inside-politics/view,with-a-cherry-on-top-exclusive-interview-with-joanna-cherry_14544.htm

 Women are key to achieving the majority needed so it'll be a tough sell if there's perception legislation is being snuck through that could impinge on their safe spaces.  It would be a spectacular new way for Scotland to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory.   

[aaid]

1 hour ago, exile said:

The poll seems more significant than 2015 or 2017. It feels as if a decisive shift has happened.

As long as there was hope that a Labour govt could solve our problems, there was a temptation for some to give Labour a chance.

As long as there was a hope of Remain overturning Brexit, or at least while no one knew the shape of a deal, "now is not the time" had some traction. 

But as I say, staring down an almost inevitable, possibly irreversible Brexit, and the prospect of possibly 5 or 10+ years of conservativism, must surely concentrate minds. 

And I reckon a lot in Wales will be making the same calculation. 

Also in the bigger picture, the result in Northern Ireland is hugely significant. It draws attention to the consent they have there to choose their destiny and vote to leave the UK sooner or later, whenever they are ready. That has an inevitability about it. The polls there could have been in stasis, but the fact of a shift from unionist to nationalist majority, however small, is significant. For them of course, but also for the Union.

The Union is no longer an inevitable safe and cosy status quo as it seemed (to many) in 2014.  Who can look at the political map and not see at least three distinct countries, as if diverging from each other? Also the UK Govt is not as staunchly unionist as it once was. We can't fail to notice Boris Johnson is almost giving NI away on a plate. Whether you think it's a good thing or not, it sends the signal he either don't care that much about the Union, or even, is prepared to sell NI down the river for his own political gain.

Also in the bigger picture I detect in England and outside UK a much stronger sense of thinking that while the Union might be nice in principle, no one would blame us if we want out of it. Even, English people saying they want to come to an independent Scotland (but they should come here first, and vote for it!).

I think it will be very interesting to see how the unionist parties in Scotland will react to their respective defeats. Will they remain in denial? Will they bicker over mandate percentage points, or get the general message Scotland sent them? Will they keep fighting the battles of 2015 and 2017 and 2019 again? Will they lurch to the left or right? Will they entrench in their unionism or start thinking more creatively about their futures in Scotland?

A few good points in there.

Firstly as regards NI, I think there's an inevitability of a Border Poll happening there within the next few years.  What the result of that will be is anyone's guess.   However, if that happens it will be off the back of a mandate that will probably be similar to the one which the SNP has in Scotland.  The difference is that the SoS for NI is legally bound to hold the referendum under the GFA in those circumstances.    If the mandate in NI is the same as the mandate in Scotland then it becomes more difficult to justify holding one and not the other.   The "You had your referendum in 2014" also doesn't stack up in those circumstances as the GFA states a gap of 7 years between referendums in NI.

Lets no forget that the Tories have been in power - on one form or another - for 9 and a half years - and now they'll be in power for at least another five and with Labour in complete disarray, who knows how long they'll be in power for.   Anyone clinging onto hope of a Socialist led Labour government as a way out of this mess must be having second thoughts now.   I know a few people who were long term left wing types, who supported Indy in 2014 but went full on Corbyn from 2015, I'll be interested to see hear what they're thinking now.

As to what the Unionist Parties in Scotland will do.   The Tories will continue to be full on belligerent "Tell Her No, Again" but its hard to see where that goes.  That's a message which resonates strongly with their core support but is a real turn-off for anyone else.   That core support seems to be stuck  in the mid 20s - 22% in 2016, 28% in 2017, 25% in 2019 - and with that level, they can never be anything other than a loud and annoying opposition in Scotland.

My guess is that Labour will go further into decline in Scotland - when you think things can't get any worse for them, along comes another election and it does.   You really can't see any future for them, especially as when you look at the talent at Holyrood, is there actually anyone in that group that looks remotely competent?    One thing they could do that might help them would be to drop their opposition to another Independence referendum.   That's not the same as doing a 180 and supporting Indy but merely saying that the question needs to be put.    Trying to out-Unionist the Tories, clearly hasn't worked, and if they did that, they might stand a chance of getting back some of the Independence supporting former voters they've lost.    I can't see it happening as the party hierarchy is so fixated with the SNP they won't do it and anyway, they'll probably spend the next five years fighting the real enemy to Labour, which is anyone in the Labour party that doesn't agree with them.

 

 

[aaid]

6 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

The original response was to the suggestion that the positive result possibly gave some sort of countenance of GRA within the SNP vote  I believe is stretching it as agree it is barely on most folks radar.  

 

If that's to my post then you misunderstood my point.  It wasn't that it proved people supported GRA, it was that people didn't care about GRA, or at the very least it wasn't high enough up their agenda to stop them voting for the SNP.    It's not as important an issue to the vast majority of people that the tiny minority for who it is a priority think it is.

Over the last couple of weeks, Wings retweeted dozens of comments from people saying they couldn't vote for the SNP because of GRA.  Assuming they went through with that, it didn't make a difference does it.

[ThistleWhistle]

10 minutes ago, aaid said:

If that's to my post then you misunderstood my point.  It wasn't that it proved people supported GRA, it was that people didn't care about GRA, or at the very least it wasn't high enough up their agenda to stop them voting for the SNP.    It's not as important an issue to the vast majority of people that the tiny minority for who it is a priority think it is.

Over the last couple of weeks, Wings retweeted dozens of comments from people saying they couldn't vote for the SNP because of GRA.  Assuming they went through with that, it didn't make a difference does it.

It was and I agree that it didn't really factor at the moment and that neither support for, or against, can really be gleaned from it which was my point.  I differ though in that I believe it will become an issue soon unless Brexit continues as a car-crash taking attention away.

Dozens aren't going to make a difference but I'm not convinced sweeping potentially the concerns of 50% of the population under the carpet is a vote winner down the line and this could be a big topic for the Scottish elections.  An open discussion on it would at least allow their potential concerns to be addressed as suggesting it'll simply be ok isn't a sustainable strategy especially with the issues other countries have had becoming more evident.  

 

  

[aaid]

3 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

It was and I agree that it didn't really factor at the moment and that neither support for, or against, can really be gleaned from it which was my point.  I differ though in that I believe it will become an issue soon unless Brexit continues as a car-crash taking attention away.

Dozens aren't going to make a difference but I'm not convinced sweeping potentially the concerns of 50% of the population under the carpet is a vote winner down the line and this could be a big topic for the Scottish elections.  An open discussion on it would at least allow their potential concerns to be addressed as suggesting it'll simply be ok isn't a sustainable strategy especially with the issues other countries have had becoming more evident.  

 

  

What evidence do you have that 50% of the population have concerns?

[Toepoke]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

 My guess is that Labour will go further into decline in Scotland - when you think things can't get any worse for them, along comes another election and it does.   You really can't see any future for them, especially as when you look at the talent at Holyrood, is there actually anyone in that group that looks remotely competent?    One thing they could do that might help them would be to drop their opposition to another Independence referendum.   That's not the same as doing a 180 and supporting Indy but merely saying that the question needs to be put.    Trying to out-Unionist the Tories, clearly hasn't worked, and if they did that, they might stand a chance of getting back some of the Independence supporting former voters they've lost.    I can't see it happening as the party hierarchy is so fixated with the SNP they won't do it and anyway, they'll probably spend the next five years fighting the real enemy to Labour, which is anyone in the Labour party that doesn't agree with them.

I thought so too, but then I saw this map....

Scotland's youth appearing favourable to Labour this time...

[aaid]

35 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

I thought so too, but then I saw this map....

Scotland's youth appearing favourable to Labour this time...

If that maps correct, it probably means no-one at all over 49 voted for Labour, which might be true but I'd still take that with a big pinch of salt. 

Edit - I just looked at the account on Twitter and they're pointing out that map is not from the general election but from a poll from over a year ago.

No idea what the underlying data looks like or how big the Scottish sample is.

Edited December 14, 2019 by aaid

[aaid]

That map was first published on 5 September 2018.   There wasn't any Scotland wide poll in July or August so I can only assume that it's come from a Scottish subsample of a UK wide poll - so treat with care.

The closest poll to that was one published on 3 October by Survation for the Sunday Post, with fieldwork from the previous 4 days.

That uses different ranges for ages however.

16-34 - Tory 8%, Labour 24.3%, Lib Dems 7.6%, SNP 42.9%, other 2.5%
35-54 - Tory 15.3%, Labour 20.9%, Lib Dems 4.4%, SNP 43.1%, other 3.0%
55+ Tory 36.1%, Labour 18.8%, Lid Dems 6%, SNP 26.1%, Other 2.5%

Looks like that map was based on some very dodgy data.

https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Sunday-Post-Final-Tables-.pdf

[Hertsscot]

16 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Any Questions - Radio 4

Stewart Hosie was scheduled to appear but couldnt make it

Was replaced by Liam Halligan from the Telegraph who proceeded to tell a large audience that Scotland would not leave the UK as everyone in Scotland is subsidised to the tune of £2000 each

Question Time Election special

Drew Henry was asked for his opinion on Boris Johnson and the new Government

He was followed by some fanny that wrote House of Cards who completely ignored the question and tried to attack Henry on the SNP's record on the NHS which was "considerably worse than the rest of the UK"

Predictable stuff from Halligan.  I wonder why they don't put that on all the right wing newspapers down her, that would soon get English voters demanding an end to subsidising the union, they'd positively be demanding a referendum and encouraging Scots to vote yes!

[Hertsscot]

3 hours ago, exile said:

'Guarantee'? I think he could be bluffing there. It's kneejerk. They (Downing St) haven't had time to think through an indy strategy, I'd wager. I'l just be now appearing as a slightly tricky fly in the ointment, they'll try to bat away for now. But I think we have yet to see what a cummings style assault on indy will be. The man who more or less said Northern Ireland could f off into the sea.  

There is also a chance (however small) that Johnson will not be as extreme as some of his opponents make out. He player the Brexiteer to gain profile, became Foreign Secretary, then PM. He outmanoeuvered the real Brexiteers to get his 'oftish, messy 'deal' accepted. Now he has a huge mandate he can call his own. He could go whichever way he likes. 

 

I think you've made some really interesting points.  The question now is which way does Johnson go, if he's belligerent then that would in my opinion be an error.  His best chance of stymieing independence is actually to offer a decent deal to Scotland, possibly along the lines of the infamous Vow and cut the ground beneath the SNP's feet. The press headlines down south are mostly very triumphalistic and no doubt will continue to be so. Johnson won't be hiding in the fridge anymore or avoiding interviews and I think there will be a lot of positive spin in the upcoming months with media and ordinary voters probably thinking what a great job he's doing, pledging money for all sorts of things or cutting taxes. If the sky doesn't fall in with Brexit and threats of the end of civilization as we know it don't materialize it might well neuter some of the short term support for independence.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Hertsscot

[Dave78]

3 hours ago, ThistleWhistle said:

 

On the one hand you could also say she lost a majority of 10% since last election whereas Joanna Cherry, who was probably the most public in criticising GRA, majority is through the roof pretty much hovering up Labour votes. 

You mention Cherry. There's also Mhairi Black, who called people with legitimate concerns about GRA reform "Jeremy Hunts", yet she's returned with an absolutely massive majority.

My conclusion is this stuff is only really a concern to political geeks like us, and even then it's minor*

 

*or should be. People like Wings are prepared to spoil their ballot just to make a point about it 🤦‍♀️

 

[Caledonian Craig]

4 minutes ago, Hertsscot said:

I think you've made some really interesting points.  The question now is which way does Johnson go, if he's belligerent then that would in my opinion be an error.  His best chance of stymieing independence is actually to offer a decent deal to Scotland, possibly along the lines of the infamous Vow and cut the ground beneath the SNP's feet. The press headlines down south are mostly very triumphalistic and no doubt will continue to be so. Johnson won't be hiding in the fridge anymore or avoiding interviews and I think there will be a lot of positive spin in the upcoming months with media and ordinary voters probably thinking what a great job he's doing, pledging money for all sorts of things or cutting taxes. If the sky doesn't fall in with Brexit and threats of the end of civilization as we know it don't materialize it might well neuter some of the short term support for independence.

In all honesty though it is how his stance will go down in Scotland that matters most. I have no doubt he'll carry on turning down an IndyRef2. How will Scots feel about that? Certainly not happy especially given how the election went and given that Scotland is about to be dragged out of the EU voting otherwise. That stance is only going to add a few more percent to those saying Yes in IndyRef polls. Once they begin edging consistently over 50% and he continues to say No it will only add further support to the Yes side of things. Add to that the Scottish Elections coming up in 2021 and with a strong showing there can Johnson withstand that pressure?

[wee-toon-red]

6 minutes ago, Dave78 said:

You mention Cherry. There's also Mhairi Black, who called people with legitimate concerns about GRA reform "Jeremy Hunts", yet she's returned with an absolutely massive majority.

My conclusion is this stuff is only really a concern to political geeks like us, and even then it's minor*

 

*or should be. People like Wings are prepared to spoil their ballot just to make a point about it 🤦‍♀️

 

He’s totally blown his credibility with this stuff.

I’m curious; outside of Twitter has anyone ever heard a woman utter the phrase “safe space” when talking about the lavvy or a changing room?

[Hertsscot]

1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

In all honesty though it is how his stance will go down in Scotland that matters most. I have no doubt he'll carry on turning down an IndyRef2. How will Scots feel about that? Certainly not happy especially given how the election went and given that Scotland is about to be dragged out of the EU voting otherwise. That stance is only going to add a few more percent to those saying Yes in IndyRef polls. Once they begin edging consistently over 50% and he continues to say No it will only add further support to the Yes side of things. Add to that the Scottish Elections coming up in 2021 and with a strong showing there can Johnson withstand that pressure?

That would be the situation as I'd like it to pan out.  I just feel a compliant media (and there's little sign that the Scottish media is anything but that), some sweeteners on the table for Scotland (more frigates any one?) and a sudden break out of Boris as being Mr Reasonable and the portrayal of Nicola as unreasonable is a tactic he might employ to sway some of the Feinthearts.

[Caledonian Craig]

1 minute ago, Hertsscot said:

That would be the situation as I'd like it to pan out.  I just feel a compliant media (and there's little sign that the Scottish media is anything but that), some sweeteners on the table for Scotland (more frigates any one?) and a sudden break out of Boris as being Mr Reasonable and the portrayal of Nicola as unreasonable is a tactic he might employ to sway some of the Feinthearts.

At present polls have support for independence averaging around 45% at present (higher in the better polls) so that support needs to rise a bit more. There is no rush to make it happen at present. We need to be patient, keep pouring the pressure on, keep winning elections in fine style and they cannot carry on saying No indefinitely..

[aaid]

5 minutes ago, wee-toon-red said:

He’s totally blown his credibility with this stuff.

I’m curious; outside of Twitter has anyone ever heard a woman utter the phrase “safe space” when talking about the lavvy or a changing room?

I'd quite happily describe myself as a political geek and I don't really have an opinion on it.

BTW, Wings could probably get himself into trouble for posting that.  Not for spoiling the ballot paper but for taking a picture of it, particularly as it could identify the voter.  He's also probably voted for the Tories as the jizz is pointing to them.  Apparently some drew a cock and balls on a ballot paper and they counted for the candidate whose name the bell end was pointing at.