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General Election 2019


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6 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Last night was a great result for the SNP and Scotland purely in my own opinion. However, it was an awful result that saw the Tories march back into power with a good majority with the power to now push through whatever Brexit they wish.

As far as what it means for independence well I have no doubt BoJo will point blank refuse calls for an indyref. Now at present support for independence is averaging around 45% in polls so would waiting be the end of the world? Allow BoJo to show the union up for what is is - unwilling to listen to Scotland's voice and more people will join the Yes bus. And more surely will join once Brexit is signed and sealed and maybe more again when the effect of Brexit begins to bite. By then I'd be gobsmacked if polls did not have the support for Yes at 50%+ and up towards that magic 60% mark. 

In short ..... patience everyone.

One thing I am sure of is that I cannot see a resurgence in unionism to lower the Yes vote in polls down to the levels of 20 years ago or so. The genie is out of the bottle. BoJo and future Westminster PM's have that added problem ....how to stifle the rise in calls for Scottish independence.

If I was in BoJo's position I'd grant a 2nd referendum just now, it's their best chance to win again and kill it for good. Leaving it for longer increases the chance of a Yes win IMO.

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22 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

Swinson stuck her head above the parapet on GRA and lost her seat whilst getting pelters for trying unsuccessfully to define a woman. I'd more lean toward SNP barely mentioning it as more hinting they know it's a hobby sandwich still to be tackled.

I doubt that had anything at all to do with why Swinson lost her seat.

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1 minute ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Agreed.

The SNP targetted that seat to remove Swinson so put a lot of effort in there. Thst was the teason tgey won that seat.

There was a very good local campaign, but it wasn't a target seat.

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

I doubt that had anything at all to do with why Swinson lost her seat.

The Lib Dems vote increased 3% across Scotland whilst she lost 4%. In itself that is worth discussing but we can't say on the one hand GRA had nothing to do with her losing but on the other the SNP vote held up on their GRA stance. 

 

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49 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said:

The Lib Dems vote increased 3% across Scotland whilst she lost 4%. In itself that is worth discussing but we can't say on the one hand GRA had nothing to do with her losing but on the other the SNP vote held up on their GRA stance. 

 

I would guess that at least 90% of voters haven't got a clue what GRA stands for.

I did a survey. 

 

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Any Questions - Radio 4

Stewart Hosie was scheduled to appear but couldnt make it

Was replaced by Liam Halligan from the Telegraph who proceeded to tell a large audience that Scotland would not leave the UK as everyone in Scotland is subsidised to the tune of £2000 each

Question Time Election special

Drew Henry was asked for his opinion on Boris Johnson and the new Government

He was followed by some fanny that wrote House of Cards who completely ignored the question and tried to attack Henry on the SNP's record on the NHS which was "considerably worse than the rest of the UK"

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5 hours ago, ThistleWhistle said:

The Lib Dems vote increased 3% across Scotland whilst she lost 4%. In itself that is worth discussing but we can't say on the one hand GRA had nothing to do with her losing but on the other the SNP vote held up on their GRA stance. 

 

No I disagree. I would say it had far mote to do with the fact she was the leader of the Lib Dems whose stance on Brexit was to revoke Article 50 and said they would never allow an IndyRef2. Even I am not too well clued up on GRA and could not give a stuff about it.

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56 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

This whole moral indignation from Sturgeon's opponents because she celebrated Swinson losing is hilarious. 

It’s hilarious, how dare she celebrate one of her prospective MPs getting elected. That will be the official party line anyway, I’m sure in reality she was delighted that the SNP managed to humiliate one of the biggest cunts in UK politics. 

Ive seen the clip a dozen times, and will watch it again at some point, it’s magnificent viewing. 

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5 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

No I disagree. I would say it had far mote to do with the fact she was the leader of the Lib Dems whose stance on Brexit was to revoke Article 50 and said they would never allow an IndyRef2. Even I am not too well clued up on GRA and could not give a stuff about it.

Probably a lot to do with the fact that as leader of the Lib Dems, she was front and centre in the campaign and came across as cluelessly, condescending and arrogant.   Probably put off a lot of Tory voters who voted for her in 2017 as an anti-SNP vote.  

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3 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I am still struggling to work this out .....

Boris Johnson with 43.70% of Electorate says he has 'a stonking mandate' for his Brexit.

The SNP with 45% of the electorate have no mandate for indyref2 acvording to Tories.

"Ah but it's first past the post that counts. "

"OK, in that case the SNP won over 80%."

"Ah but they got let than 50% of the vote. "

Ad infinitum....

 

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3 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I am still struggling to work this out .....

Boris Johnson with 43.70% of Electorate says he has 'a stonking mandate' for his Brexit.

The SNP with 45% of the electorate have no mandate for indyref2 acvording to Tories.

It's simple. The Tories are all lying, thieving cunts. 👍

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4 hours ago, kumnio said:

It’s hilarious, how dare she celebrate one of her prospective MPs getting elected. That will be the official party line anyway, I’m sure in reality she was delighted that the SNP managed to humiliate one of the biggest cunts in UK politics. 

Ive seen the clip a dozen times, and will watch it again at some point, it’s magnificent viewing. 

Jo Swinson for Dundee FC manager ? :lol:

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4 hours ago, kumnio said:

It’s hilarious, how dare she celebrate one of her prospective MPs getting elected. That will be the official party line anyway, I’m sure in reality she was delighted that the SNP managed to humiliate one of the biggest cunts in UK politics. 

Ive seen the clip a dozen times, and will watch it again at some point, it’s magnificent viewing. 

It's a great clip and worth watching on repeat, I've no problem with it, especially post 2014.

However, people saying it's all about celebrating the SNP win aren't telling the full story.  I think the fist pumping and the "Yeeeeah" is probably about that, but if you watch it with the sound up, at the end, there is what can only be described as the First Minister pishing herself with laughter that suggests that there was an element of being happy that Swinson had fallen on her arse.  

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That clip of Nicola celebrating Amy's win in Swinson's seat is terrific. The London media elite and their "it's distasteful" Do feck off! The Lib Dems were boasting about beating John Nicholson in 2017. 

Have to say I was pretty gobsmacked when I seen the 55 seat projection - really disappointed with the Tory majority prediction too. Before 10pm, I thought over 40 seats was a good night ; over 45 was a fantastic night and over 50 would have been possibly better than 2015 considering the onslaught ; 12 years in power etc. And the seats they almost won, they were a bawhair away from. I'm delighted Angus, Ochill, Stirling are all SNP again but a wee bit disappointing about Moray and Banff, esp Moray was 500 vote and we'll see wee Dougie , but overall a terrific result.

No doubt about it. It was a vote for stopping Brexit and the right to hold a second referendum. If you are a Unionist and against leaving both the UK and EU, you vote Lib Dems - people know exactly where the SNP stand on a second referendum. And it was an emphatic -Yes, we should hold one! Again, the Tories were rejected by Scotland 25% of the vote. And if you add in the 45% SNP support along with support from other parties ; EU nationals and 16-17 year olds I believe we are over 50% if a second referendum was held. 

Now is the tricky part. They are going to say no to the referendum request. Then what do the SNP do next. If the Tories have a mandate to 'Get Brexit Done' on 43% of the UK vote then the SNP most certainly do to hold a second referendum. 

I thought the SNP would do well, but I didn't realise how well. I'm delighted TBH I lost money on the SNP under 44 seats. The Scottish Tories made this all about Indyref 2, we all seen the signs in the ferm lands ''SAY NO 2 INDYREF2" etc, it was plastered all over theirs and Lib Dem literature.  It was the only thing Carlaw talked about in the debates or on social media. 

Watching the results, I have to say Alex Cole-Hamilton is possibly the most odious of all Unionists. Such a slimy wee toad, and at least with Mundell, Murdo Fraser, Ruth Davidson even, you know exactly what they are what they stand for. Only real disappointment was not taking that loudmouth Christine Jardine's seat, and getting over 50 seats would have been wonderful, but if you offered us 48/49 no doubt once Hanvey will surely be reinstated is a marvelous result. 

Scotland, what a mad roller coaster of a country we are. 

 

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13 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Only real disappointment was not taking that loudmouth Christine Jardine's seat, and getting over 50 seats would have been wonderful, but if you offered us 48/49 no doubt once Hanvey will surely be reinstated is a marvelous result. 

Scotland, what a mad roller coaster of a country we are. 

 

The 48 includes Hanvey as he was elected as an SNP candidate.   He'll sit as an independent until a decision is made on whether or not to reinstate him.

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Since 2016 people have been wondering if there will be a decisive shift to indy. But as long as Brexit not done, we've been in stasis.

I wonder if staring down the barrel of 5-10 years of Johnson and an irreversible Brexit will provide the jolt that indy has been waiting for. 

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The news of a bomb being planted in a Motherwell polling station is a bit of a worry. Strange that it's received very little media coverage given the political landscape of Scotland. Could this be a loyalist fanatic intent on harming snp supporters or some kind of other lunatic. Either way it's an extreme act and could be a sign of what's to come in Scotland.

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13 minutes ago, mccaughey85 said:

The news of a bomb being planted in a Motherwell polling station is a bit of a worry. Strange that it's received very little media coverage given the political landscape of Scotland. Could this be a loyalist fanatic intent on harming snp supporters or some kind of other lunatic. Either way it's an extreme act and could be a sign of what's to come in Scotland.

It wasn't a bomb, it was a bomb scare and it was widely covered on Thursday, it was even on the UK News at lunchtime.

Still, bang on with your fake theories based on no evidence.

 

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The poll seems more significant than 2015 or 2017. It feels as if a decisive shift has happened.

As long as there was hope that a Labour govt could solve our problems, there was a temptation for some to give Labour a chance.

As long as there was a hope of Remain overturning Brexit, or at least while no one knew the shape of a deal, "now is not the time" had some traction. 

But as I say, staring down an almost inevitable, possibly irreversible Brexit, and the prospect of possibly 5 or 10+ years of conservativism, must surely concentrate minds. 

And I reckon a lot in Wales will be making the same calculation. 

Also in the bigger picture, the result in Northern Ireland is hugely significant. It draws attention to the consent they have there to choose their destiny and vote to leave the UK sooner or later, whenever they are ready. That has an inevitability about it. The polls there could have been in stasis, but the fact of a shift from unionist to nationalist majority, however small, is significant. For them of course, but also for the Union.

The Union is no longer an inevitable safe and cosy status quo as it seemed (to many) in 2014.  Who can look at the political map and not see at least three distinct countries, as if diverging from each other? Also the UK Govt is not as staunchly unionist as it once was. We can't fail to notice Boris Johnson is almost giving NI away on a plate. Whether you think it's a good thing or not, it sends the signal he either don't care that much about the Union, or even, is prepared to sell NI down the river for his own political gain.

Also in the bigger picture I detect in England and outside UK a much stronger sense of thinking that while the Union might be nice in principle, no one would blame us if we want out of it. Even, English people saying they want to come to an independent Scotland (but they should come here first, and vote for it!).

I think it will be very interesting to see how the unionist parties in Scotland will react to their respective defeats. Will they remain in denial? Will they bicker over mandate percentage points, or get the general message Scotland sent them? Will they keep fighting the battles of 2015 and 2017 and 2019 again? Will they lurch to the left or right? Will they entrench in their unionism or start thinking more creatively about their futures in Scotland?

Edited by exile
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20 minutes ago, exile said:

The poll seems more significant than 2015 or 2017. It feels as if a decisive shift has happened.

As long as there was hope that a Labour govt could solve our problems, there was a temptation for some to give Labour a chance.

As long as there was a hope of Remain overturning Brexit, or at least while non one knew the shape of a deal, "now is not the time" had some traction. 

But as I say, staring down an almost inevitable, possibly irreversible Brexit, and the prospect of possibly 5 or 10+ years of conservativism, must surely concentrate minds. 

And I reckon a lot in Wales will be making the same calculation. 

Also in the bigger picture, the result in Northern Ireland is hugely significant. It draws attention to the consent they have there to choose their destiny and vote to leave the UK sooner or later, whenever they are ready. That has an inevitability about it. The polls there could have been in stasis, but the fact of a shift from unionist to nationalist majority, however small, is significant. For them of course, but also for the Union.

The Union is not longer an inevitable safe and cosy status quo as it seemed (to many) in 2014.  Who can look at the political map and not see at least three distinct countries, diverging from each other. Also the UK Govt is not as staunch as it once was. We can't fail to notice Boris Johnson is almost giving NI away on a plate. Whether you think it's a good thing or not, it sends the signal he either don't care that much about the Union, or even, is prepared to sell NI down the river for his own political gain.

Also in the bigger picture I detect in England and outside UK a much stronger sense of thinking that while the Union might be nice in principle, no one would blame us if we want out of it. Even, English people saying they want to come to an independent Scotland (they should come here first, and vote for it!).

I think it will be very interesting to see how the unionist parties in Scotland will react to their respective defeats. Will they remain in denial? Will they bicker over mandate percentage points, or get the general message Scotland sent them? Will they keep fighting the battles of 2015 and 2017 and 2019 again? Will they lurch to the left or right? Will they entrench in their unionism or start thinking more creatively about their futures in Scotland?

Great post.

I watched a lot of the post-election coverage yesterday and even on the BBC  Scotland coverage Tory MP's claiming there was no mandate for IndyRef2 were questioned how this can be when the SNP had a greater vote share than the Tories who claimed they had 'a stonking mandate' for Brexit. Eyes are being opened to the hypocrisy. And even on Question Time Election Special last night Drew Henry was applauded by an entirely English audience when he pointed out that it is up to the people of Scotland to decide if they want another referendum - not Boris. An English woman (not sure of her name) came down hard on the Tory MP about it too as he tried saying there was no mandate. She pointed out that it was totally wrong to deny there was a mandate for it given how the election went yet claim there is one for Brexit.

The Tories can say No (as they are not legally obliged just now to do otherwise) but soon that position will become untenable. I mean since 2014 there has been three general elections and one Scottish election and each one has been won by the SNP by some distance.

Edited by Caledonian Craig
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19 minutes ago, exile said:

Also in the bigger picture I detect in England and outside UK a much stronger sense of thinking that while the Union might be nice in principle, no one would blame us if we want out of it. Even, English people saying they want to come to an independent Scotland (but they should come here first, and vote for it!).

My son and his wife stay in Stratford Upon Avon (Tory area). I spoke to my son yesterday and he was saying his wife (she's English) was in tears with the thought of living under a Tory government again. She is expecting my first grandchild in May and they are seriously thinking about coming to Scotland to live as they don't want to bring a baby up down there.

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