General Election 2019

[wheres the pies]

I see bojo the clown has pulled out of the channel 4 debate on Sunday shite bag 

[AndyDD]

He's leading in the polls, they believe they are in front, so further debates are of little use to him; it gets him nothing. Especially now he has already taken part in one, with a further Beeb one to come. 

It's pish, but the broadcasters let him and Corbyn off the hook with, what, two one-on-one debates? They can both say they've ticked that box and the rest of the media won't accuse them of ducking debate because they are cowardly cunts. 

The broadcasters should have agreed to play hard ball, but they gave the Tories and Labour exactly what they wanted. Both of their campaigns are comfortable pushing the narrative that it's one or the other, blue or red, Corbyn or Johnson. They are both very poor debaters, so neither at a particular disadvantage and the debate formats are so anaemic that neither are really going to suffer much as long as they stick to their boiler plate, ready made soundbite slogans. 

Easy television for the broadcasters, easy and useful set up for the two parties. Fair play, it's a masterclass in closing the shop. 

 

[PapofGlencoe]

1 hour ago, AndyDD said:

He's leading in the polls, they believe they are in front, so further debates are of little use to him; it gets him nothing. Especially now he has already taken part in one, with a further Beeb one to come. 

It's pish, but the broadcasters let him and Corbyn off the hook with, what, two one-on-one debates? They can both say they've ticked that box and the rest of the media won't accuse them of ducking debate because they are cowardly cunts. 

The broadcasters should have agreed to play hard ball, but they gave the Tories and Labour exactly what they wanted. Both of their campaigns are comfortable pushing the narrative that it's one or the other, blue or red, Corbyn or Johnson. They are both very poor debaters, so neither at a particular disadvantage and the debate formats are so anaemic that neither are really going to suffer much as long as they stick to their boiler plate, ready made soundbite slogans. 

Easy television for the broadcasters, easy and useful set up for the two parties. Fair play, it's a masterclass in closing the shop. 

 

i do actually agree but it's not as if Johnson hasn't had a bad press from every corner near enough since he took charge.  he's probably had a worse press than any sitting prime minister.

ultimately the people are still voting for him, not the press.  it's near 40% of the country and that's including Scotland and NI.  i'm at a loss.  you very rarely hear anyone backing boris but he's winning handsomely at the moment.  

[AndyDD]

1 minute ago, PapofGlencoe said:

i do actually agree but it's not as if Johnson hasn't had a bad press from every corner near enough since he took charge.  he's probably had a worse press than any sitting prime minister.

ultimately the people are still voting for him, not the press.  it's near 40% of the country and that's including Scotland and NI.  i'm at a loss.  you very rarely hear anyone backing boris but he's winning handsomely at the moment.  

He has, albeit I would suggest both Major and May had a rougher time of it from the press. Maybe even Gordon Brown. 

Well, we shall see, but he has aye been a popular figure in certain sectors of english society. I'd be interested in his numbers specifically in Scotland. Conventional wisdom is he is almost universally reviled up here and that's why so many of the scots Tories were initially against him back in the infamous 'operation arse' days. 

I highly, highly doubt he has 40% kind of numbers in Scotland. 

 

[PapofGlencoe]

17 minutes ago, AndyDD said:

He has, albeit I would suggest both Major and May had a rougher time of it from the press. Maybe even Gordon Brown. 

Well, we shall see, but he has aye been a popular figure in certain sectors of english society. I'd be interested in his numbers specifically in Scotland. Conventional wisdom is he is almost universally reviled up here and that's why so many of the scots Tories were initially against him back in the infamous 'operation arse' days. 

I highly, highly doubt he has 40% kind of numbers in Scotland. 

 

in the whole UK it's 40.  we're only 5 million and not making any kind of dunt in how popular he is across the whole country.

nah, i disagree.  he's openly ridiculed to levels i've never seen in the foreign press as well.  Seen as a British trump.  Never seen anything like it.  If he's voted in, I think the electorate get the government they deserve.  Shortcoming are openly and clearly visible to anyone.  

[AndyDD]

9 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

in the whole UK it's 40.  we're only 5 million and not making any kind of dunt in how popular he is across the whole country.

nah, i disagree.  he's openly ridiculed to levels i've never seen in the foreign press as well.  Seen as a British trump.  Never seen anything like it.  If he's voted in, I think the electorate get the government they deserve.  Shortcoming are openly and clearly visible to anyone.  

Aye, get what you mean, but i'd be interested in the figure you'd find if an opinion poll on Johnson was held in Scotland specifically. 

Did a quick check - https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-boris-johnson-toxic-with-scots-and-lib-dem-voters/

When voters were asked whether each of the candidates would make them more or less likely to vote for the Conservative Party, Johnson fared particularly badly in Scotland. His net score (the percentage of voters saying he would make them more likely to vote Tory minus those saying he would make them less likely) was -29 percent. That is more negative than in any of the other regions polled and lower than Hunt's -15 percent net score in Scotland.

 

When compared with his rival, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, Johnson is viewed as best suited to be prime minister in three out of the four electoral battleground regions polled: the East Midlands, the North West and London.

But in Scotland, the figures are reversed. Just 19 percent of respondents there said Johnson would make the best premier

Granted, that is from the summer, but it does rather suggest he is especially unpopular in Scotland. 

Certainly in the foreign press he is routinely vilified, ridiculed and belittled. In the UK papers, at least, he has his fair share of positive headlines and always has. The very fact he is routinely referred to as Boris speaks to this jovial, jokey blokey familiar sensibility in which much of the UK press holds him, but several papers have been and continue to be cheerleaders for the man (The Mail, The Express, quite often The Telegraph). 

In complete agreement on the bolded part. 

[Orraloon]

21 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

in the whole UK it's 40.  we're only 5 million and not making any kind of dunt in how popular he is across the whole country.

nah, i disagree.  he's openly ridiculed to levels i've never seen in the foreign press as well.  Seen as a British trump.  Never seen anything like it.  If he's voted in, I think the electorate get the government they deserve.  Shortcoming are openly and clearly visible to anyone.  

He gets it very easy from the UK media, especially TV. They never ask the most obvious questions. Like "How much money are you and your companies expecting to make out of brexit?"

 

[ErsatzThistle]

Another by election win for the SNP last night. This time in Aberdeen. The local Tories were disapointed, they thought they had a strong chance of winning this one. Former Aberdeen Labour rent-a-quote Willie Young finished third.

 

[daviebee]

On 11/20/2019 at 10:24 AM, PapofGlencoe said:

it's mad to me that every election now we have the same debate about debates.

it shouldn't even be up for discussion, all candidates should be on the platform. obviously there needs to be a limit on the monster raving loony party etc but some kind of clear line should be drawn.  there should be regulation on these like any other election rules.

 

I remember Lord Sutch being on a TV debate with all the other candidates up here during a bye-election... "We're standing against the poll tax.  It's not fair - why should the Poles pay all the tax?" 

Fkin genius and more electable than some of these muppets you get nowadays.

[AndyDD]

1 hour ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Another by election win for the SNP last night. This time in Aberdeen. The local Tories were disapointed, they thought they had a strong chance of winning this one. Former Aberdeen Labour rent-a-quote Willie Young finished third.

 

Ooft, Labour vote down by nearly 13, there. Lovely. 

[aaid]

On the surface less encouraging, however, the by-election was caused by an Independent councillor who had 18% of the FPs in 2017 standing down.  The independent who stood yesterday also stood in 2017.  Also, there was no Lib Dem candidate in 2017.

As always with council by-elections, pays to look under the covers at them.
 

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by aaid

[weekevie04]

3 hours ago, aaid said:

On the surface less encouraging, however, the by-election was caused by an Independent councillor who had 18% of the FPs in 2017 standing down.  The independent who stood yesterday also stood in 2017.  Also, there was no Lib Dem candidate in 2017.

As always with council by-elections, pays to look under the covers at them.
 

 

Surely bodes well for wee Dougie to keep his seat. 

I think the Tories will keep Moray ; West Aberdeen ; one or two other NE seats. They'll at most lose 4-5 seats, IMO..

I hope I'm wrong but I think at the most SNP will make 4-5 gains mostly from Labour. 

Brexit Party shifting it has really scunnered the SNP's chances in lot of these areas. 

Just my hunch just now, see how things go. 

[aaid]

32 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

Surely bodes well for wee Dougie to keep his seat. 

 

Not at all, that's just one ward and it's not really clear what you can read into it either way.

In this ward the whole thing is complicated in that there was no Labour Candidate and there was an Independent.   

The by-election was triggered by an independent councillor standing down.  If you look at how the votes worked out in 2017 - it was a 3 seat ward with 5 candidates, one Tory, two SNP and two independents.   The Tory got 33% and the first SNP candidate got 30%, that was enough to see them both reach quota.   If you look at how the transfers then there were 165 "extra" votes to transfer from the SNP#1 most of which unsurprisingly went to SNP#2.   There were 285 "extra" votes to transfer from the Tory most of which went to the two independent candidates one of who won the final seat against the SNP off the back of transfers from the other one.

It seems that the Tories increased their vote share off the back of what looks like a Tory friendly independent standing down.

[weekevie04]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

Not at all, that's just one ward and it's not really clear what you can read into it either way.

In this ward the whole thing is complicated in that there was no Labour Candidate and there was an Independent.   

The by-election was triggered by an independent councillor standing down.  If you look at how the votes worked out in 2017 - it was a 3 seat ward with 5 candidates, one Tory, two SNP and two independents.   The Tory got 33% and the first SNP candidate got 30%, that was enough to see them both reach quota.   If you look at how the transfers then there were 165 "extra" votes to transfer from the SNP#1 most of which unsurprisingly went to SNP#2.   There were 285 "extra" votes to transfer from the Tory most of which went to the two independent candidates one of who won the final seat against the SNP off the back of transfers from the other one.

It seems that the Tories increased their vote share off the back of what looks like a Tory friendly independent standing down.

Aye, good point and I have no idea about the demographics of this district. Heard someone say it's a ''oddly put together district'' so I'm assuming bit middle class and a bit working class?

I hope to god I am wrong and the SNP oust the Tories in every seat ; but just no Brexit Party I feel puts a spanner in the works. Considering a lot of areas the SNP won in the EU election they won with 35% of the vote. Then again a lot of fed up Tories hopefully won't turn out and the apathetic SNP voters from 2017 actually do turn up this time!

 

[hampden_loon2878]

I may be hard on sturgeon sometimes however she is shear class at debating and interviews as shown tonight, head and shoulder above any other uk politician 

[TDYER63]

My Lib Dem candidate 😂😂

[aaid]

19 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

My Lib Dem candidate 😂😂

Unfortunate name

[Ally Bongo]

[Dave78]

2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Such a zoomer. How the hell can she have such an (apparently) good grasp of history,  yet be so devolved from reality?

Anyway, i enjoyed that time i talked with her on twitter...

 

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Dave78

[kumnio]

I read about five of her posts at random, what a fucking fruitloop. 

[Caledonian Craig]

Note how she uses terms like 'we'. Sorry but this fruitloop speaks for herself only not the whole of Scotland. Somebody should ask her why the SNP have been the biggest party in Scotland for the last few years and that won't be changing anytime soon.

[TDYER63]

10 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

Rather than suggest NS move to England would it not be easier if she simply used all that negative energy to move herself to England ? 

[aaid]

39 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

Rather than suggest NS move to England would it not be easier if she simply used all that negative energy to move herself to England ? 

I honestly don't know why people engage with people like that, it's not as if you're going to change their minds, a waste of time and bandwidth.  Best ignored.

That doesn't mean you should live in your own Yes bubble though, there are plenty of anti-Indy commentators that are worth paying attention to even if you don't agree with their arguments it's worth understanding them.  Similarly there's a lot on the more rapid Yes fringe I don't pay attention to either.

btw, this isn't directed at you but a general comment.  I didn't want to waste any more bandwidth on that loon by quoting the OP (Stephenson, not Ally)

[stocky]

IMO at the moment anything over 40 seats for SNP will be a good night. 

SNP should win 5 Labour and 2 Tory seats 

will lose NE Fife I think and also lose the Hamilton one to the Tories.  Hamilton is a 3 way marginal and i think the Labour Yoon Vote will go Tory and kick out SNP.

The south of Scotland and Border seats will all stay Tory, look at he majorities there...so will AYR 

 

North East will stay Blue, SNP to maybe win one.

Stirling to go to SNP

 

so imo a decent night for Scotland would be

Lib 5

Lab 2

SNP 41

TORY 11

A great night would be 

Lib 4

Lab 1

SNP 45

Tory 9

This might change as we get nearer the day....

 

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by stocky

[weekevie04]

Scary to think that Historywoman was a lecturer at Edinburgh University.

An absolute loon ball. Obsessed with independence.