General Election 2019

[Eisegerwind]

AFPCopyright: AFP

Jeremy Corbyn meets supporters at the National Mining Museum in Newingtongrace, ScotlandI

[Bonny79]

3 hours ago, Eisegerwind said:

AFPCopyright: AFP

Jeremy Corbyn meets supporters at the National Mining Museum in Newingtongrace, ScotlandI

Vile man. 

[Bonny79]

On 11/11/2019 at 2:46 PM, kumnio said:

So a deal between Boris and Nigel as predicted, just need a Tory majority and a no deal Brexit now to come true. 

The UK is absolutely fucked, regardless of whether you think Brexit is a good thing, it’s been highjacked by the extreme right wing of the Tory Party. 

The UK Is about to be asset stripped to the extreme. The poor, elderly and anyone in need will be in real trouble, the working class will see rights and benefits stripped back. And ‘we’ voted for it to happen. 

Bet u no deal brexit is fine for the uk. 

[ErsatzThistle]

Hopefully last nights council by elections are a good omen 

Held onto Rosyth and also gained Dunfermline Central from the Tories 

The counting for Inverness Central doesn't begin until later but the SNP are favourites.

And as a nice bonus, in Wales, Plaid Cymru took one from Labour last night also.

Edited November 15, 2019 by ErsatzThistle

[Och Aye]

That is actually some turn around in Wales 

[aaid]

Now the nominations are closed.  SNP, Tories, Labour and Lib Dems are standing in all 59 seats.  Greens are standing in 22 seats including a handful of marginal seats.  Brexit Party are standing in 15. 

[weekevie04]

UKIP are standing in 7 in Scotland. They may actually be the difference in Moray - which is quite top-heavy for Leavers and white settlers. So hopefully a few pissed off Tories put a protest vote in their box and sees Dougie Ross out on his erse.

Brexit Party are standing in Perth and North Tayside - considering pistol Pete's majority is 21, that is surely quite good for the SNP ; as again some hopefully hardcore Leave Means Leave types will put their X in the BxP box.

I think Swinson's constituency has the most candidates available, around 8 or so parties/options to choose from.

Quite interesting see just 4 parties in many constituencies too.

[weekevie04]

3 hours ago, Och Aye said:

That is actually some turn around in Wales 

Fantastic result for Plaid.

They've picked up a few votes and council seats of late. So hopefully its a change of things.

I was in Bala in 2015 and ended up speaking to the book shop owner for 2 hours, haha about life in general. He was PC activist and Bala was pretty much a PC heartland and he thought Wales was 10 years behind Scotland politically. He said PC will start winning council elections and slowly but surely people will see Labour doing squad in the Senedd and end up voting for a minority PC administration before PC will officially become the Party of Wales.

 

[hampden_loon2878]

12 minutes ago, weekevie04 said:

UKIP are standing in 7 in Scotland. They may actually be the difference in Moray - which is quite top-heavy for Leavers and white settlers. So hopefully a few pissed off Tories put a protest vote in their box and sees Dougie Ross out on his erse.

Brexit Party are standing in Perth and North Tayside - considering pistol Pete's majority is 21, that is surely quite good for the SNP ; as again some hopefully hardcore Leave Means Leave types will put their X in the BxP box.

I think Swinson's constituency has the most candidates available, around 8 or so parties/options to choose from.

Quite interesting see just 4 parties in many constituencies too.

Thats good for wishart, what other seats are the brexit party standing? Any more where the tories were 2nd in 2017?

[weekevie04]

12 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Thats good for wishart, what other seats are the brexit party standing? Any more where the tories were 2nd in 2017?

From a wee scan of this -

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/162fAv5xiV0XQjc5ii2eVYgZlFzvDP9KvL3VWvIe0bWo/edit#gid=0

Areas which may or may not help the SNP, but areas to watch IMO might be these (where there is a candidate)

Caithross, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Inverness, Badenoch and Strathspey

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Orkney and Shetland

Perth and North Tayside

 

UKIP standing

South Perthshire and Ochill

Moray

 

Orkney and Shetland will be Lib Dem, but it will be interesting to see (sure Brexit Party did alright there in the EU election) if they get a few votes as well ; which might get the SNP a lot closer to the Libs. Libs will win no doubt, but if Brexit voters can make it a tight fight between the SNP and LDs?

 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Thats good for wishart, what other seats are the brexit party standing? Any more where the tories were 2nd in 2017?

These are the seats that the Brexit party are standing in (current incumbent first, runner up)

Aberdeen North (SNP, LAB)
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross (Lib Dem , SNP )
Dundee West (SNP, Lab )
Edinburgh N&L (SNP, Lab) Bonny79?
Edinburgh SW (SNP, Con)
Glasgow N (SNP, LAB)
Glasgow S (SNP, LAB)
Glasgow SW (SNP, LAB)
Glenrothes (SNP/LAB)
Inverness NB&S (SNP, Con)
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (LAB/SNP)
Linlithgow and East Falkirk (SNP/LAB)
Orkney and Shetland (LDEM, SNP)
Perth and North Perthshire (SNP, CON)
Ross, Skye and Lochaber (SNP, CON)


 Other than the GB wide tactic of standing down in seats held by the Tories, there doesn't seem to be any pattern to where they are standing, in some it could favour the SNP, in some it could hamper them.  I suspect they're just putting people up wherever they could get a candidate to stand.

The Brexit candidate in Linlithgow and East Falkirk's name is Marc Bozza - it'd be great if he married someone called Ritchie and they combined the surnames.



 

 

[TDYER63]

45 minutes ago, aaid said:

The Brexit candidate in Linlithgow and East Falkirk's name is Marc Bozza - it'd be great if he married someone called Ritchie and they combined the surnames.



 

 

😂

[exile]

 

UK: Based on the polling average up until 12 November 

@EuropeElects

[ErsatzThistle]

Full results of last nights Scottish council by elections for anyone interested:

 

 

 

[exile]

2 minutes ago, ErsatzThistle said:

Full results of last nights Scottish council by elections for anyone interested:

 

 

 

But, but... only Nicola Sturgeon wants another indyref.

[Caledonian Craig]

So looking at those two results and just presuming you played it the Westminster way then over the two results two parties backing independence (SNP and Greens) took 51% of the vote share. Majority backing independence.

[PapofGlencoe]

38% in dunfermline for Indy a bit of a disappointment.  Even accounting for a few rogue labs in a ref it's not great.

48% in rosyth..

Looks like better than last time but not the push of 2015 levels.

[Bonny79]

2 hours ago, exile said:

But, but... only Nicola Sturgeon wants another indyref.

She's a troll.   Slap her face and point her in the direction of the 2014 referendum result. 

[exile]

53 minutes ago, Bonny79 said:

She's a troll.   Slap her face and point her in the direction of the 2014 referendum result. 

Why slap her face?

[Bonny79]

7 hours ago, exile said:

Why slap her face?

That's what they do in movies to add snap people out of a daydream. 

[aaid]

9 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

38% in dunfermline for Indy a bit of a disappointment.  Even accounting for a few rogue labs in a ref it's not great.

48% in rosyth..

Looks like better than last time but not the push of 2015 levels.

I wouldn't try and assume anything from local council by- elections. 

[weekevie04]

4 hours ago, aaid said:

I wouldn't try and assume anything from local council by- elections. 

True.

Considering turnout for these is often 25% as well. It's mostly partisan party members who vote. The Tories tend to quite well as well, so it's quite encouraging. 

I noticed UKIP are standing in Ochill too whilst it's not the Brexit Party, the Kippers might take a few hundred votes of the Tories.

[ErsatzThistle]

A number of GB wide opinion polls suggesting that the Lib Dem's support is stalling or even dropping. 

Btw WTF is Swinson's faux English Home Counties accent all about ? One minute she sounds German then she sounds Australian then it's Swedish. 

[Bonny79]

1 hour ago, ErsatzThistle said:

A number of GB wide opinion polls suggesting that the Lib Dem's support is stalling or even dropping. 

Btw WTF is Swinson's faux English Home Counties accent all about ? One minute she sounds German then she sounds Australian then it's Swedish. 

People starting to realise the unliberal Democrats are full of it. 

[weekevie04]

1 hour ago, ErsatzThistle said:

A number of GB wide opinion polls suggesting that the Lib Dem's support is stalling or even dropping. 

Btw WTF is Swinson's faux English Home Counties accent all about ? One minute she sounds German then she sounds Australian then it's Swedish. 

Took them to receive 0-14.9% of the vote at 5/1 at the start of the campaign. I may well be wrong, but had a feeling they would slide as the campaign rolled on; more people were exposed to Swinson and squeezed as folk in England opt for Lab or Tory. 

I think they'll end up on about 13% of the vote. They'll squak about their vote going up a fair bit from 2017, but probably only have 10-15 more MPs than won in 2017.