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General Election 2019


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55 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

There are a lot of Tory voters who don't want to leave the EU. About 10,000 voted tory last time, I think. A lot of them will go LibDim this time round. Wouldn't surprise me if they win by a couple of thousand.

Yep I can see the Lib Dems making some inroads in Scotland this time.

I think the SNP's privileges as Westminster's 3rd party are coming to an end.

 

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4 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Yep I can see the Lib Dems making some inroads in Scotland this time.

I think the SNP's privileges as Westminster's 3rd party are coming to an end.

 

I think you're right on the second point, although it could be very close between the SNP and LibDems who has the most seats. 

On the first point, I'm not so sure.  In every seat in Scotland, the SNP either hold it or were second.  Outwith NE Fife, I'm not sure there's another seat that where the Lib Dems are second and it's a real stretch to imagine them coming from third place to win seats.

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

I think you're right on the second point, although it could be very close between the SNP and LibDems who has the most seats. 

On the first point, I'm not so sure.  In every seat in Scotland, the SNP either hold it or were second.  Outwith NE Fife, I'm not sure there's another seat that where the Lib Dems are second and it's a real stretch to imagine them coming from third place to win seats.

Aye, I think that will be their only gain in Scotland. Gethins did really well to hold onto it last time round. Most folk, even those working for his campaign, didn't expect him to win again in 2017. If he holds on this time round he, and his team, will have pulled off a minor miracle.

 

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2 hours ago, aaid said:

I think you're right on the second point, although it could be very close between the SNP and LibDems who has the most seats. 

On the first point, I'm not so sure.  In every seat in Scotland, the SNP either hold it or were second.  Outwith NE Fife, I'm not sure there's another seat that where the Lib Dems are second and it's a real stretch to imagine them coming from third place to win seats.

I really am torn in how i see this GE panning out, the snp will be 35/42% of the vote.  regarding the  lib dems its worth remembering that the received a lot of votes from disgruntled brexit supporters to keep the snp out, they will surely lose that section of support which may turn out crucial to them. Another factor is the brexit party if they stand in banff and buchan the snp will regain the seat as goes for moray. Any updates where the brexit party are standing in scotland?

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25 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I really am torn in how i see this GE panning out, the snp will be 35/42% of the vote.  regarding the  lib dems its worth remembering that the received a lot of votes from disgruntled brexit supporters to keep the snp out, they will surely lose that section of support which may turn out crucial to them. Another factor is the brexit party if they stand in banff and buchan the snp will regain the seat as goes for moray. Any updates where the brexit party are standing in scotland?

This is how I see i in Scotland. If you're a Unionist Leaver, then it's a choice between the Tories and Brexit - and to answer your question, the Brexit Party are supposed to be standing in every GB constituency - then that will benefit the SNP, as BXP will peel off votes from the Tories.   If you're a Unionist Remainer, it's a bit more complicated as you're looking at either Labour or the Lib Dems, certainly not the Tories.  The Lib Dems look like a safer bet as regards the Union than Labour.  Again that'll potentially work in the SNPs favour, as Labour are more of a threat than the Lib Dems.

It all boils down to how people on the Unionist side view at is more immediately important, Brexit or the Union, and given that Brexit is something will be settled one way or another in a matter of months after this election, whereas independence is something that might happen in a few years but following another referendum, you would think that people would put the immediate issue of Brexit ahead of Indy, which is further off.

The Tories and the SNP will be looking to make the contest primarily about Independence.   The Lib Dems and Labour will try and avoid any talk of Indy.    The problem for the Tories is that while in Scotland they'll want to avoid Brexit at all times, the UK media will be talking about nothing else unless the campaign suddenly takes an unexpected turn.  

Edited by aaid
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12 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Well according to today's news Farage is threatening to have Brexit stand in every UK seat...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/01/farage-to-johnson-join-forces-or-brexit-party-will-contest-every-seat

 

Or none depending on what Boris decides? The Farage Party probably won't any seats be he is kinda holding the balance of power before the election even starts.

 

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3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Or none depending on what Boris decides? The Farage Party probably won't any seats be he is kinda holding the balance of power before the election even starts.

 

Farage has made him an offer he can't accept and that's no accident.

 

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2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Are the Greens standing more candidates in Scotland this time? Could be a factor in all those marginals.

Apparantly so and they've every right to do so.  That said, if it results in the SNP losing seats then I suspect they'll pay a pretty heavy price in 2021. 

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23 minutes ago, aaid said:

Apparantly so and they've every right to do so.  That said, if it results in the SNP losing seats then I suspect they'll pay a pretty heavy price in 2021. 

Might be no bad thing if we are thinking medium term instead of short term? Not sure. 

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13 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Sure. People who expect quid pro quo. Just like the folk that fund the SNP.

The SNP are only fielding 59 candidates, though. That's only 30K in deposits. I contribute more than that myself. Get fuk all back for it though.

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32 minutes ago, phart said:

Mind who the SNP had as a sugar daddy back in the day. 

Both Farage and SNP benefit from loads of grass root donators i suspect.

I don't think Souter's made any donations for some time, at least not since Sturgeon became leader.   The Weirs are still major donors, outwith that it's all membership subs and individual donations.  

I don't doubt that the Brexit party gets a  lot of individual donations but I doubt that's where the bulk of their funding comes from and the problem is it's not at all transparent where it comes from but I'd be amazed if most of it wasn't illegal. 

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10 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

The SNP are only fielding 59 candidates, though. That's only 30K in deposits. 

Whereas Farage is fielding 10 times as many candidates.. hence the 10X larger amount for deposits.

Do you not want to talk about who pays the SNP's bills now?

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2 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Hopefully they stand in the northeast scotland 

I am not sure if they plan to contest the Scottish seats but by God I'd like to see them try.

This election is going to be wildly unpredictable IMHO. Unlike anything we have seen before. So many pissed off people from so many different angles... wow.

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1 hour ago, aaid said:

 

I don't doubt that the Brexit party gets a  lot of individual donations but I doubt that's where the bulk of their funding comes from and the problem is it's not at all transparent where it comes from but I'd be amazed if most of it wasn't illegal. 

It's the same transparency for everyone though is it not? I doubt they are using any novel ways to obtain money.

I'm all for transparency look at Tony Blair and F1 or cash for questions etc in the past.

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