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2019 European Elections

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May as well start this thread now¬†ūüėČ

Seems to be quite a bit of chat that if we do take part in the Euro Elections that there will be a a whole load of hardline Brexiteer MPs going over to cause trouble.

I don't think this is correct for a few reasons.

The EU elections use a PR system, which means that if everyone voted purely on the basis of whether they supported Leave or Remain you would probably have at least as many MEPs on both side.

Traditionally voters in the UK have tended not to be too concerned about the EU elections and turnout is generally small - in 2014 it was only 35.6%.  The only people particularly motivated to vote has been the Eurosceptics hence UKIP has been successful in the past.   I suspect that has changed, given that the people of the UK have just had - for good or bad - a three year crash course in the EU and what it means.   I'd suspect that will mean that turn-up will go up and that will be to the benefit of the "traditional" parties, Labour, Tory, Lib Dem and SNP in Scotland.    

As I said in another thread, UKIP as a political party are a busted flush and while there would undoubtedly be a significant number of Leave voters who would feel betrayed, would a new party - probably based around Farage as a figurehead - be able to mobilise that support from a standing start for elections in 7 weeks time.

If I was going to call it now, I'd say that the "UKIP" seats would probably be halved, Labour and Tory would go up a bit and the Lib Dems would make a recovery - they were almost wiped out in 2014 as a result of being in coalition.   In Scotland, the SNP would almost certainly retain their two seats.  The Tories would probably get two and Labour one, a change from last time reflecting the Tories overtaking Labour.   I can't see UKIP or equivalent being anywhere close.  Toss up between the Greens and Lib Dems for the final one, probably Greens as they seem to be slightly ahead in Holyrood list polling.
 

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21 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I don't think you will overtake Flure's Brexit thread, with this one? :lol:

Maybe not but he's way behind my Indyref2 thread 

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Of the many factors influencing the Brexit vote, lack of interest in what the EU is actually about seemed to play a part.

I recall hearing a colleague from north west England giving it laldy with the "I don't know who my MEP is" line, oblivious to the fact he actually has 8 of them.

Was that down to general apathy, or the lack of coverage in the media given to European politics?

 

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As long as Brexit issues rumble on UKIP remains relevant and probably even more so now. Remember that people are mightily pissed off at the fiasco the mainstream parties have made of Brexit. Many are so angry they are adamant they'll vote elsewhere. So where will that be? Certainly not LibDems who committed political hari-kari in the previous coalition government. That leaves UKIP who largely drove the Brexit bus and who are sounding off that voters are not getting what they voted for. It seems highly likely they will hoover up many disenchanted former Tory and Labour voters.

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35 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Of the many factors influencing the Brexit vote, lack of interest in what the EU is actually about seemed to play a part.

I recall hearing a colleague from north west England giving it laldy with the "I don't know who my MEP is" line, oblivious to the fact he actually has 8 of them.

Was that down to general apathy, or the lack of coverage in the media given to European politics?

 

Both I think.  Of course you have several MEPs as its a regional PR vote. A friend of mind who is politically engaged and a strong leave voter was amazed yesterday when I told him Farage was one of our MEPs.  So that's Farage as an MEP and May as a MP.

Edited by aaid

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I think I have some sort of compulsive disorder, as the only important thing I can see here is that this thread in not in the politics sub-section either :banghead:

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1 minute ago, Grim Jim said:

I think I have some sort of compulsive disorder, as the only important thing I can see here is that this thread in not in the politics sub-section either :banghead:

What you mean the sub forum that has not had a reply since January 25th*?!

Yeah amazing no one wants to post a topic there Grim Jim

*and yes i was that last reply

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Current representation in Scotland: 

2x SNP 

2x Labour (1 of which is currently vacant as Catherine Stihler has chucked it early) 

1x Conservative

1x UKIP

 

What do we expect it to be if we end up in Euro elections?

I imagine that votes will be up for the SNP (brexit), Conservatives (indyref effect), UKIP/Farage party (brexit), and LibDems (brexit).  The only party I can see nosediving is Labour vote. 

I can only imagine that SNP would retain 2 seats and Labour will drop 1. 

The other 3 seats may be split (Tory, UKIP/Farage, LibDem)

 

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2 hours ago, AlfieMoon said:

Current representation in Scotland: 

2x SNP 

2x Labour (1 of which is currently vacant as Catherine Stihler has chucked it early) 

1x Conservative

1x UKIP

 

What do we expect it to be if we end up in Euro elections?

I imagine that votes will be up for the SNP (brexit), Conservatives (indyref effect), UKIP/Farage party (brexit), and LibDems (brexit).  The only party I can see nosediving is Labour vote. 

I can only imagine that SNP would retain 2 seats and Labour will drop 1. 

The other 3 seats may be split (Tory, UKIP/Farage, LibDem)

 

Last time the 6th seat was between SNP and UKIP.....   i heard of a few Labour and tories voting UKIP so as SNP wouldnt get the third.... and we ended up with that Phukkwitt David Coburn.......He made the Labour voting fodder MP's of the 80's and 90's seem intelligent...

 

I was nt award of Catherine Stiller leaving, whats the story there? 

 

And i now think we only get 5 representatives in Scotland.now...........  ( however when we are independent we should get 8.   )

 

 

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Its not as bad as it should be though

UKIP the biggest losers (in more ways than one) with 10 of their 19 losses going to Farage's new party

Hopefully that fat fuck Coburn booted out

EU Parliament Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (+13)

CON: 23% (-1)

BXP: 10% (+10)

LDM: 8% (+1)

UKIP: 8% (-19)

CHUK: 4% (+4)

SNP: 4% (+2)

GRN: 4% (-4)

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50 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Tin hat stuff, that's why you shouldn't pay any attention to sub-samples.  With a small sample size, a handful of people will skew the numbers one way or another. 

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2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

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Nearly came of the road laughing this morning when listening to BBC Radio SNP bad. The lead Tory Dame Mobarik was asked why there was no manifesto for the EU election.

Answer: Oh we shouldn't be there etc... Asked by G Robertson a few questons then she pipes up about Nicola Sturgeon and indy . Good actress never deviated from her script once ..

 

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Ive only received leaflets from UKIP and Brexit Party, nothing from Labour, Greens or the SNP. I dont think Ive ever received anything from the Tories.

The UKIP and Brexit crap was personally addressed to me, which fucking annoyed me.

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8 hours ago, kumnio said:

 

The UKIP and Brexit crap was personally addressed to me, which fucking annoyed me.

Yep - They must have paid for either the voter's roll or the SNP membership files ! 

Christina McKelvie and Margaret Ferrier appeared at my hoose and outrageously asked if i would be voting SNP

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