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romanticscot

UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifier Tracker

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A thread to chart the qualifying campaign of Scotland through our campaign and will be tracking the exploits of Norway, Serbia and Finland along with the ramifications of their replacements into the play off spots  - Unless we are sitting pretty in the top 2 of our group and don't need to even talk about a play off. 

Scotland currently are top seeds in the Play off position from topping UEFA Nations League C, providing home advantage and kick off our proper qualification group on Thursday 21st of March. 

On paper, we are vying with Russia and to a lesser extend Cyprus to finish in the two two in Group I, along with Kazakhstan, Belgium and San Marino.

The other groups of interest are:

Group B - Portugal, Ukraine, Serbia, Lithuania and Luxenbourg

Group F - Spain, Sweden, Norway, Romania, Faroe Islands and Matla

Group J - Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Greece, Armenia and Lietchenstein 

The criteria for ranking the in the qualification groups is defined by the following paramenters

  1. Position in the group;
  2. Higher number of points;
  3. Superior goal difference;
  4. Higher number of goals scored;
  5. Higher number of goals scored away from home;
  6. Higher number of wins;
  7. Higher number of wins away from home;
  8. Fair play conduct (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
  9. Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

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Screw the edits, this isn't higher English.

So looking at the fixtures, the best case scenario and one that could well happen after two games

Belgium on 6 points on top with goal difference

Scotland on 6 points

Cyprus on 3 points

Kazakhstan and Russia on 1 point - They could play out a draw.

San Marino on 0 points

A vital away win for us next Thursday sets off nicely  and could already see us with a points gap over Russia should we do the business versus San Marino.

Just looking at our last successful qualification campaigns and how did in the first 2 games. 

Italia 90 - 4 points

France 98, we started with 4 points in first two games.

Euro 96 - 2 wins

Euro 92 - 2 wins

Last umpteen campaigns where we did not finish in the top 2 we started with the following after two games - 

World Cup 2002 - 2 wins

World Cup 2006 - 1 draw

Euro 2008 - 2 wins

World Cup 2010 - 3 points

Euro 2012 - 3 points 

World Cup  2014 - 2 draws 

Euro 2016 - 3 points

Word Cup 2018 - 4 points

So 3 points or less, and statistically this campaign is doomed. 

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13 hours ago, romanticscot said:

 

The criteria for ranking the in the qualification groups is defined by the following paramenters

  1. Position in the group;
  2. Higher number of points;
  3. Superior goal difference;
  4. Higher number of goals scored;
  5. Higher number of goals scored away from home;
  6. Higher number of wins;
  7. Higher number of wins away from home;
  8. Fair play conduct (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card);
  9. Position in the UEFA Nations League overall ranking.

Head to head results are the first tie-break criteria.

 

"If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the qualifying group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:

a. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;

b. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;

c. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;

d. higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;

e. if, after having applied criteria a) to d), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to d) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) to l) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal;

f. superior goal difference in all group matches;

g. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;

h. higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;

i. higher number of wins in all group matches;

j. higher number of away wins in all group matches;

k. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);

l. position in the overall UEFA Nations League rankings (see Regulations of the UEFA Nations League)."

 

https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/54/36/05/2543605_DOWNLOAD.pdf

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I guess we want Norway, Serbia and Finland to all quality as the teams that would replace them should be weaker.

Bulgaria, Israel and Hungary are the other three that could come into the play-offs. 

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12 hours ago, bonny78 said:

We shud keep an eye on the England group cause they are our main rivals and we want them to fail. 

Wrong thread?

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Kazakhstan  3 - 0 Scotland

Cyprus and San Marino are playing right now and Russia and Belgium play in 2 hours.  We might be sitting BOTTOM of the group after match day 1, what a disgrace. 

 

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I just looked at the upcoming games and after match day 4, likely scenario has us 6 points in 4th spot with Russia or Kazakhstan on either 7 or 10 points.   It seems to much for us to take 4 points off Belgium AND 6 points off Russia. To be in the top 2, we needed to take of our own business and I can't see that happening after the way we collapsed yesterday.   The true test is Belgium at away in June, by that point the pain of yesterday loss will be long forgotten among the players and staff.  

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Unless McLeish goes AND we appoint a good manager, we have zero chance of 2nd.

Even if we do appoint a good manager before June, 2nd will be tough as I expect we will lose to Belgium twice and Russia away.  

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I completely agree with you, as I sit here I am resigned to the fact that the play-offs are our only hope. Had we performed well and lost yesterday I might be feeling differently, but the manner of the performance suggests we will be well short.  I am being totally naive to think we will get 19 points in the next 9 games, and that I don't think is going to be enough.

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2 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

I completely agree with you, as I sit here I am resigned to the fact that the play-offs are our only hope. Had we performed well and lost yesterday I might be feeling differently, but the manner of the performance suggests we will be well short.  I am being totally naive to think we will get 19 points in the next 9 games, and that I don't think is going to be enough.

I'd expect us to beat San Marino home and away (6 points), and Cyprus and Kazakhstan* at home (12 points).

Cyprus away could be dodgy but given how late in the campaign it is, it might depend on what are playing for (second? or getting ready for the play-offs?) but let's give us a win (15 points).

I can't see where you get 4 points from against Belgium and Russia.  Belgium will take 6 points from us without trying. 

Russia at home is a game I'd normally fancy us to get something from but not under this manager.  Russia away will probably be our biggest defeat.

 

* Based on their previous results and the fact Celtic have struggled in Kazakhstan a few times but been comfortable at home.

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In preparation for our play off games that we have 12 months to be ready for, I am going to watch the Italy Finland game today. 

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10 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

Serbia winning in Portugal.

We really want Serbia to finish top 2. 

 

Definitely. The Serbia results are absolutely key to us having a chance in the play offs. Even a draw tonight would put them in a good position to get a top 2 spot in that group. We want them qualified automatically so a poorer team joins us, Finland and Norway in the play offs. 

Ronaldo just pulled his hamstring as well so he's off. 

Edited by magicTs
  • Like 1

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19 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

Serbia winning in Portugal.

We really want Serbia to finish top 2. 

Aye - they're one of the upcoming countries in Europe. Looking at their group, I think there's a good chance they'll be top two, especially if they win tonight.

Bulgaria will replace them, if Serbia get in the top two. They're 0-0 1-0 up in Kosovo right now, which would put them second in the group as it stands. Hungary would replace Bulgaria (Israel are next in line, but are second in their group too).

Edited by Clyde1998

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11 minutes ago, magicTs said:

 

Definitely. The Serbia results are absolutely key to us having a chance in the play offs. Even a draw tonight would put them in a good position to get a top 2 spot in that group. We won't them qualified so a poorer team joins us, Finland and Norway in the play offs. 

Aye. Both Finland and Norway lost their opening game too - albeit against Italy and Spain respectively.

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2 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

Aye. Both Finland and Norway lost their opening game too - albeit against Italy and Spain respectively.

 

Yep. If Norway fail to beat Sweden at home tomorrow they will be just about toast for a top 2 finish already as well. Don't see Finland finishing top 2 either.

Portugal just leveled. 

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Problem with play offs is isn't it just a one off game in neutral venue? Would feel more confident if it was two legged game as usual. We all know how s*** the team is away from Hampden last 10 years.

I agree though, do not want to face Serbia at any cost. They need to qualify automatically which will look probable if they hold on to beat Portugal.

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Back to 1-1 in Portugal, but Ukraine (Serbia's main challenger outwith Portugal for a top two spot) are losing 1-0 in Luxembourg. 👍

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13 minutes ago, Tartan Chris said:

Problem with play offs is isn't it just a one off game in neutral venue? Would feel more confident if it was two legged game as usual. We all know how s*** the team is away from Hampden last 10 years.

I agree though, do not want to face Serbia at any cost. They need to qualify automatically which will look probable if they hold on to beat Portugal.

 

No its 2 one off games. We are guaranteed the 'semi-final' at Hampden but should we win the 'final' is drawn and played either at Hampden or at the opponents home stadium. I presume that draw takes place ahead of the semi-final so there will be permutations depending on who wins. 

Edited by magicTs

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Tonight's Results

  • Group A - Montenegro 1-5 England
  • Group A - Kosovo 1-1 Bulgaria
  • Group B - Luxembourg 1-2 Ukraine
  • Group B - Portugal 1-1 Serbia
  • Group H - Andorra 0-2 Albania
  • Group H - France 4-0 Iceland
  • Group H - Turkey 4-0 Moldova

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