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2020 Draw Thread

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Well, if the last 18  months is anything to go by, our goal scoring has been better in the games we win - we win usually by 2 or 3 goals.  Looking at Russia in the World cup with the exception of Saudi Arabia, they won by 1 goal Egypt included 1 OG - well we do have the covered there unfortunately :( 

 

Edited by romanticscot

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FYI - The average 3rd place team within groups of 6 was 17.6 pts, so the margin between 2nd and 3rd is usually one game and 3 points.  We are going to need to match what Russia do against the Tintin's and then beat them at home and try and scrap a draw.  This would require a consistency we have rarely shown, but this is what it takes. The ore I look at the fixtures, the more I like it. Having two big home games in a row could be a huge turning point for us.

Match day two, Belgium away to Cyprus - I am predicting a draw.

After 4 games 

Belgium on 10 points, Russia and us on 9 points. 

 

Those two games in September - wow.

Edited by romanticscot

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2 hours ago, Marky said:

It’s not a 10 hour flight is it? I thought it was about 6.

You’re right, I was going on the basis of normal scheduled flights.

It will be around 10 for fans (unless there’s a chartered flight) as you can’t fly directly from Glasgow. 

I would imagine the players will be flying directly so yes, it should be around 6.5 to 7 hours. 

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36 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

Looking at the Euro 2016 qualification groups of 6 teams, the average 2nd place team had 20.6 points

20,21,22,21,21,20,20,20 respectively.

If we beat home and away all of the teams beneath us and looking to win at least one of the other 4 games v Belgium and Russia, statistically this would be enough. This of course would be zero slips ups and that is a big ask.  However, if we look at where we have failed over the last 20 years, we usually tend to miss out by 3 points somewhere along the way - and that has been aiming for a play off position.

Perhaps this is false hope, but I am feeling very enthusiastic. So, yes each game will be taken individually but for the campaign, 21 points is the goal we need to aim for. 

 

We were one point away from second place in our last group. If we had beaten Lithuania at home (or beat Slovakia by 3 clear goals at Hampden and scored 1 more goal elsewhere) we’d have done it. We should really have finished second.

If we can stop the daft slip ups then we have a great chance of second place this time. 

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I don't think Belgium will win every match. They hammer minnows but games against decent sides are usually closer. 

They didn't win their nations league group after losing to Switzerland.

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11 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

If we can stop the daft slip ups then we have a great chance of second place this time. 

We've been trying to do that since the dawn of time.

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49 minutes ago, andyD said:

We've been trying to do that since the dawn of time.

Mind you we used to be able to finish in the top 2 even with daft slip ups.

 

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14 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

Mind you we used to be able to finish in the top 2 even with daft slip ups.

 

We used to be able to win most of our home games. Even the top teams weren't too confident coming to Hampden. That's changed, most teams now come to Hampden expecting to get something out of it. If we could win all our home games that's 15 points. Pick up 7 away points, and that would probably be enough? But nowadays Belgium losing at Hampden would be seen as a major upset. It's just a reflecting on how far down the pecking order we have sunk.

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5 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

I don't think Belgium will win every match. They hammer minnows but games against decent sides are usually closer. 

They didn't win their nations league group after losing to Switzerland.

Wales and perhaps Rep Ireland have beaten Belgium in competitive matches I think. They also have the odd draw.

Ideally those draws or losses need to involve Scotland. 

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12 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

Ideally those draws or losses need to involve Scotland. 

ideally, yeah. but i think it makes sense to make russia our priority games in the two pairs of dates.

feels a better idea to go fresh into russia and then see if we can nick something from belgium, rather than give everything to narrowly lose to beligum then have a must win against russia.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

We used to be able to win most of our home games. Even the top teams weren't too confident coming to Hampden. That's changed, most teams now come to Hampden expecting to get something out of it. If we could win all our home games that's 15 points. Pick up 7 away points, and that would probably be enough? But nowadays Belgium losing at Hampden would be seen as a major upset. It's just a reflecting on how far down the pecking order we have sunk.

If you look at the qualifying campaigns this century, when objectively Scotland have been at their worst, we have still managed to hold group winners to a draw at Hampden 3 times (England, Italy, and Germany) and come real close 3 times (Germany, Spain, Italy). That's 6 out of 9 home games against the top team where we've been competitive. So it's not all doom and gloom. We could steal a point from Belgium, and that would be huge, especially if we do the easy things right against Kazakhstan, Cyrpus, and San Marino.

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1 hour ago, andyD said:

ideally, yeah. but i think it makes sense to make russia our priority games in the two pairs of dates.

feels a better idea to go fresh into russia and then see if we can nick something from belgium, rather than give everything to narrowly lose to beligum then have a must win against russia.

I can't say I agree with holding ourselves back in a competitive game to be fresh against the Russians. In my opinion, we have given opposition teams far too much respect when they were there for the taking - Ireland and Poland are two examples I can think of.  I get it, Belgium are part of the elite, but we need to fight in every game and give it our best.  Our best MAY involve scraping a draw but so be it, I would rather we gave it our best and had no regrets than the typical IF only we had that one game go our way.  I am hoping we are more adventurous and take risks than hold back.  Personnel will dictate our approach but with pace on the wing and height at the back we have useful tools that can make us a chore to beat. 

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19 minutes ago, romanticscot said:

I can't say I agree with holding ourselves back in a competitive game to be fresh against the Russians.

The Russia games are the first up in each of the double-headers we play them in.

We picked to play them first, before Belgium, and I think that was a good plan, so we'll be fresh against Russia, no danger of tiredness or heads-down after a potentially dispiriting defeat.

We can't 'hold ourselves back to be fresh', cos that's not the order the games come in.

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That's good.  I honestly don't know how coach's prepare for double headers, they have to do prep for both games before either have begun.  I also guess it depends on their mindset to the game - some coach's would set up their team regardless of the opposition, and others would respond to the other team. 

 

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I get that Belgium are a great team but I don't see them as being bullet-proof. Heck they couldn't top their Nations League Group (beaten to top spot by Switzerland) so lets not discard all hope of getting a result against them. 

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4 hours ago, mrniaboc said:

If you look at the qualifying campaigns this century, when objectively Scotland have been at their worst, we have still managed to hold group winners to a draw at Hampden 3 times (England, Italy, and Germany) and come real close 3 times (Germany, Spain, Italy). 

Add Croatia in 2001 to the first list and the Netherlands in 2009 to the second.

It's only really the Belgians in 2013 who've spanked us at Hampden when expected  (and we beat the actual top seeds in the group that time).

 

Edited by Toepoke

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8 hours ago, Orraloon said:

We used to be able to win most of our home games. Even the top teams weren't too confident coming to Hampden. That's changed, most teams now come to Hampden expecting to get something out of it. If we could win all our home games that's 15 points. Pick up 7 away points, and that would probably be enough? But nowadays Belgium losing at Hampden would be seen as a major upset. It's just a reflecting on how far down the pecking order we have sunk.

The Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Germany (twice), France and England have all come to Hampden in the last 15 years and have either lost, drawn or been given a damn good game. 

Hampden may not be the fortress it once was but the last team to beat us there in a competitive game was Germany in September 2015. 

Assuming Cyprus don’t beat us there in June, we will be undefeated at home in competitive football for at least four years. That’s quite impressive considering we haven’t qualified for anything in that time. Very few countries can boast a record like that, certainly very few outside the worlds top 10. 

Nobody, not even the top teams, likes coming to Hampden even at the low ebb we are at. Lithuania aside, we have a fantastic home record in the last few years.

If it wasn’t for daft slip ups away to Georgia and the like we would probably have qualified for a couple of tournaments in the last 20 years and wouldn’t be feeling as low as we do now. 

Edited by Texas Pete
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2 hours ago, Caledonian Craig said:

I get that Belgium are a great team but I don't see them as being bullet-proof. Heck they couldn't top their Nations League Group (beaten to top spot by Switzerland) so lets not discard all hope of getting a result against them. 

I won’t mind losing twice to Belgium (although I’d rather beat them twice!) as long as they also beat everyone else twice. 

Germany beat us twice in our last Euro group and dropped points to all our main rivals which scuppered our chances. We only had ourselves to blame though as we lost in Georgia but it was still annoying. 

If Russia can take points off Belgium then so can we. We can give anyone a game at Hampden so if Belgium aren’t at their best next year then we have a chance against them. 

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8 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Mind you we used to be able to finish in the top 2 even with daft slip ups.

 

True. We finished second after drawing with the Faroes a few years ago  Not to mention the one team in Tallinn debacle.

We very nearly finished in the top 2 last time though.  If we had beaten Lithuania at home we’d have been in the playoffs.

If we can cut that shit out then we might be on to something. 

Edited by Texas Pete

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On 12/3/2018 at 11:35 AM, Texas Pete said:

We have a good chance of taking 9 points from our first three games and 9 from our last three. 

Only problem is we could realistically get 0 points from our middle four games (although I’m confident Russia won’t beat us at home). 

Hopefully we’ll come away from Russia knowing that we’ll qualify if we win our last three games as that would be very doable. 

Yeah will likely come down to how well both do in Kazak and Cyprus. Of course with Scotland away record can't be trusted to win both but Russia also known to be flaky aswell so possible they could drop points at one of those venues.

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On 12/3/2018 at 7:05 PM, Texas Pete said:

If Russia do the same then they would also have 21 points. 

We will probably need to get a point in Russia (unless Russia slip up somewhere) to get second place. Either that or we’ll need to take a point off Belgium at Hampden.

I think it will be a pretty close battle for second between us and Russia and I’m looking forward to the campaign. First time in a while I can genuinely say that.  

Is goal difference or head to head the difference if teams are level on points in this qualification? Worth knowing with San Marino in the group. Also 6 teams so you won't have that scrubbed off v bottom team unlike those awful 5 team groups.

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11 hours ago, Orraloon said:

We used to be able to win most of our home games. Even the top teams weren't too confident coming to Hampden. That's changed, most teams now come to Hampden expecting to get something out of it. If we could win all our home games that's 15 points. Pick up 7 away points, and that would probably be enough? But nowadays Belgium losing at Hampden would be seen as a major upset. It's just a reflecting on how far down the pecking order we have sunk.

Home form is still reasonably strong for me. 7 points v England, Slovakia and Slovenia was more than I expected. In the Euros took 4 points off Poland and ROI which should've been enough and ran Germany close 2-3.

Problem is there's always a draw v mediocre opposition early in the group that means catch up. Lithuania was that one last time and also Macedonia in the 2012 group was huge considering qualification did actually still go to the last game against Spain.

More for me is the poor away form that is always a problem. If you look back to euro 2016 qualifiers Wales actually got a 0-0 in Belgium which gave them a major mental boost. ROI also got a 1-1 in Germany. A backs to the wall draw in Moscow would do wonders to the belief of the squad.

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15 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

I don't think Belgium will win every match. They hammer minnows but games against decent sides are usually closer. 

They didn't win their nations league group after losing to Switzerland.

Would be better for belgium to win every match really (same formula as England in the last group). Means Russia could only get maximum of 24 points so already points total for 2nd place is dropping towards 20 points which has to be a target even if 17-18 points feels more realistic.

Russia beating Belgium at home would be as much bad news as when ROI out of nowhere beat Germany.

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38 minutes ago, Tartan Chris said:

Would be better for belgium to win every match really (same formula as England in the last group). Means Russia could only get maximum of 24 points so already points total for 2nd place is dropping towards 20 points which has to be a target even if 17-18 points feels more realistic.

Russia beating Belgium at home would be as much bad news as when ROI out of nowhere beat Germany.

Yes, the point I was making is that we can rely on Belgium beating Russia twice. In the last two groups the top team have dropped points against our rivals. 

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3 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

True. We finished second after drawing with the Faroes a few years ago  Not to mention the one team in Tallinn debacle.

We very nearly finished in the top 2 last time though.  If we had beaten Lithuania at home we’d have been in the playoffs.

If we can cut that shit out then we might be on to something. 

I think I'm right in saying, we also lost away in Lithuania - had we not slipped up in those two games we would've won that group (maybe GD would've stopped us). We also only finished second because we managed to draw at home with Germany, otherwise Iceland could've pipped us on goal difference.

These poor results, particularly against Eastern European sides, has generally been the difference between us qualifying (or making the play-offs) and failure. A clear campaign against the bottom few seeds would hopefully see us through, as we're generally able to take some points off the top two seeds in our group.

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