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2020 Draw Thread


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9 hours ago, Tartan Chris said:

Is goal difference or head to head the difference if teams are level on points in this qualification? Worth knowing with San Marino in the group. Also 6 teams so you won't have that scrubbed off v bottom team unlike those awful 5 team groups.

It’s the 6 team groups who have the results against bottom teams scrubbed, not 5 team groups. 

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11 hours ago, Tartan Chris said:

Is goal difference or head to head the difference if teams are level on points in this qualification? Worth knowing with San Marino in the group. Also 6 teams so you won't have that scrubbed off v bottom team unlike those awful 5 team groups.

Head to head first.

It will only go to overall GD if teams are tied on H2H points, H2H GD and H2H away goals.

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2 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Where did you see that? There should be no need for doing that this time round.

Aye, that was only needed to allow comparisons between the records of 2nd or 3rd placed teams in different sized groups in situations when "best third place" or "worst second place" lost out on qualification or a playoff. This time it's the top two teams from each group who qualify so no inter-group comparisons necessary.

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On 12/4/2018 at 1:15 AM, PASTA Mick said:

 

Those middle home games need to be at capacity. 

I've looked at the calendar to see if I could make then myself. 

I am rellishing the thought of this group, and as far as I know there are no dates for any foolish friendlies between now and the end of June - the World Cup qualifying groups are drawn next summer.

I wonder what our chances of being a pot 2 team for that draw, does anyone know? 

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Just now, romanticscot said:

Those middle home games need to be at capacity. 

I've looked at the calendar to see if I could make then myself. 

I am rellishing the thought of this group, and as far as I know there are no dates for any foolish friendlies between now and the end of June - the World Cup qualifying groups are drawn next summer.

I wonder what our chances of being a pot 2 team for that draw, does anyone know? 

If we win our first three  (deffinately do able i believe)  it will help our co efficient a lot... 

 

However some super tamber will be along shortly to give us more detail i hope...

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2 hours ago, romanticscot said:

Those middle home games need to be at capacity. 

I've looked at the calendar to see if I could make then myself. 

I am rellishing the thought of this group, and as far as I know there are no dates for any foolish friendlies between now and the end of June - the World Cup qualifying groups are drawn next summer.

I wonder what our chances of being a pot 2 team for that draw, does anyone know? 

We will almost certainly be in pot 3 again.

Assumptions

  • World Cup will have 32 teams.
  • UEFA will have 13 places.
  • Qualification will be in the same format as last time (9 group winners, 4 play-off winners).

We will be 38th in the next rankings.  24th of the UEFA nations.

We would need to be ranked between 9 and 18 to be in pot 2.

FIFA changed the way rankings are formulated recently and movement is now very slow.  It will take a long run of wins to get to up a few places.  

I am quite sure we only have 2 matches (Kazakhstan and San Marino away) before the pots are decided and even if we win both we won’t move more than a place or two at best.  If they do take into account the June matches (Cyprus home and Belgium away), it might give us a chance if we win all 4 but it would need the 6 teams between us and 18th to collapse.  I'm not sure it is possible. 

A good example of how poor the ranking are now is Kosovo.  They started at the bottom but have done pretty well but have only moved up 10 places with their 4 wins and 2 draws in the Nations League, up to 131st.  The only system would have put them well into the top 100.  To get in the top 100 now, they will need something like 20 wins and 10 draws from their next 30 matches.

We will suffer for our poor position when the rankings changed for many years (unless they change them again.  Belgium, Croatia, Switzerland, Denmark and Wales will enjoy their position for years, even after they start to go past their current good performances. 
 

Edited by PASTA Mick
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2 hours ago, stocky said:

If we win our first three  (deffinately do able i believe)  it will help our co efficient a lot... 

However some super tamber will be along shortly to give us more detail i hope...

Afraid not.  The FIFA rankings are even worse than normal now and we would need years of good results to see a significant increase to our ranking.

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6 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Where did you see that? There should be no need for doing that this time round.

It's still being used, just in a different way.

Since there's no uefa coefficient any more (except as as a distant tiebreaker), they use the qualifying results to determine the seeding for the main tournaments now. They have to remove the results against the 6th place teams to do this "fairly".

Euro%202020%20FT.png

Teams like Switzerland will be absolutely delighted to get Gibraltar in their group as a #5 seed as the results against them still count. There will probably be some strong looking groups in the main tournament because of this.

Because of this it's also good news for us that England got an easy group (ducks). If we do finally make it to a tournament we'd want England to be a #1 seed in our group. If they were to mess up and end up as pot #2, 3 or 4 we could end up with a non host like France in our hypothetical "totally going to make it to the Euro's" group as well.

7 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

Afraid not.  The FIFA rankings are even worse than normal now and we would need years of good results to see a significant increase to our ranking.

Looking at some of the ranking simulation sites, if they go to 11 groups of 5 we're not that far away from being a #2 seed. We'd need teams like N.Ireland and Iceland to struggle in their first few games of the qualifying (sadly they don't have their most difficult games up first).

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5 minutes ago, paper_lion said:

It's still being used, just in a different way.

Since there's no uefa coefficient any more (except as as a distant tiebreaker), they use the qualifying results to determine the seeding for the main tournaments now. They have to remove the results against the 6th place teams to do this "fairly".

Euro%202020%20FT.png

Teams like Switzerland will be absolutely delighted to get Gibraltar in their group as a #5 seed as the results against them still count. There will probably be some strong looking groups in the main tournament because of this.

Because of this it's also good news for us that England got an easy group (ducks). If we do finally make it to a tournament we'd want England to be a #1 seed in our group. If they were to mess up and end up as pot #2, 3 or 4 we could end up with a non host like France in our hypothetical "totally going to make it to the Euro's" group as well.

Looking at some of the ranking simulation sites, if they go to 11 groups of 5 we're not that far away from being a #2 seed. We'd need teams like N.Ireland and Iceland to struggle in their first few games of the qualifying (sadly they don't have their most difficult games up first).

Are you saying that results against the bottom placed team will drop off for seeding purposes of the final tournament, but not for tie breaks in the actual qualifying?

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6 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Are you saying that results against the bottom placed team will drop off for seeding purposes of the final tournament, but not for tie breaks in the actual qualifying?

Yeah.

Head to head for groups. #6 seed results removed only for the final tournament.

Edited by paper_lion
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What is a new feeling is some enthusiasm and excitement has crept in.  I will admit, the last 15 years have been grim, and in more recent times I have found myself looking back, watching highlights of past glory's, collecting old jerseys and listening to podcast with our heroes of yesteryear but there is a definite swing in my mindset to being more positive and excited.  I actually beleive we will make 2nd in our group and its not based on a false hope, I think we are the 2nd best team and we will perform well. 

Edited by romanticscot
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On 12/5/2018 at 10:18 PM, romanticscot said:

What is a new feeling is some enthusiasm and excitement has crept in.  I will admit, the last 15 years have been grim, and in more recent times I have found myself looking back, watching highlights of past glory's, collecting old jerseys and listening to podcast with our heroes of yesteryear but there is a definite swing in my mindset to being more positive and excited.  I actually beleive we will make 2nd in our group and its not based on a false hope, I think we are the 2nd best team and we will perform well. 

Well said that man.  We need to start believing it's ok to feel this way, you know, the way other nations feel 🖒

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