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Scotland's UEFA coefficient


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18 hours ago, Stu101 said:

Basel out tonight.

14th place confirmed, which is a pretty magnificant result.

Even more magnificent thing is that we were the seventh best country this season (sixth in PSG lose their next CL tie) - only behind the traditional big five and Portugal - and that's despite having Killie not managing to make it through Q1.

Hopefully the extra European place will help our non-OF clubs attract better players and provide extra finances, if not simply through snowballing.

  • The Cup winners (IIRC) are guaranteed four European matches from next season, because they will drop from the Europa to Conference League if they lose a tie in the EL - giving them an extra round of matchday income in addition to appearance fees.
  • Also, if we continue the form from the past two seasons we'd be bearing down on 10th and an automatic Champions League group stage place for the champions; guaranteeing a five times higher UEFA solidarity payment for the SPFL, compared to not reaching the group stage. This gets shared between the other teams in the league that season, who were not in Europe and in 2018 was worth just under £400k per club (or the equivalent of £7k per week per club).
  • Any sustained improvement to the league's quality would lead to increased interest and, therefore, TV/streaming money - especially internationally, where we currently lack a broadcaster for Spain, Germany, Italy, most Eastern European countries or South America. Any deal in those areas would be better than no income at all.
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  • 1 month later...

At the end of the second qualifying round, we're currently thirteenth in the overall standings, although Cyprus and Denmark are close behind - with a team from each yet to start their European season. Denmark has lost a team already. We're currently not far behind Ukraine, Turkey and Austria, although all three have three of their five teams still to enter play. I doubt we'll pass any of them this season, but it's achievable with a similar season to last.

In the early provisional ranking for next season, we're eighth - ahead of countries like Ukraine, Turkey, Austria, Netherlands and Belgium, with Russia in seventh not an uncatchable distance ahead depending on performances this season.

Tenth is the position required for an automatic entry into the Champions League group stages, but there are about nine countries that could conceivably finish next season in the top ten - a list that the bottom country would see come sixteenth, with only a single Champions League spot (Scotland, Austria, Ukraine, Netherlands, Cyprus, Serbia, Belgium, Turkey, Switzerland).

I think the end of the group stages are probably the earliest I could make a firm prediction about whether we could end up in the top ten by next season or not, however it's very possible by the end of the season after - assuming current trends are kept up for each relevant country. Seventh - behind Spain, England, Germany, Italy, France and Portugal - is realistic within the next three seasons.

Current Rankings

Based on what I understand with the points system under single leg matches, any round that previously would have been two legs has the removed leg treated as a draw for the purposes of ranking points. This effectively means you're guaranteed 0.175 points (if you'd got four teams) per round during the qualifiers.

This does mean that some ties would produce less points for each country than they otherwise would; some may produce more. Rangers would almost certainly have won both legs against Lincoln Red Imps, for example, so effectively win less points for us than they would, whereas if you assume Aberdeen would have lost both legs against Sporting in the next round, they'd have won more points for us that they otherwise would have.

Ranking after second qualifying round (Riga vs Tre Fiori still to be played):

  1. Spain (nc) - 80.855 (2.500)
  2. England (nc) - 78.713 (2.500)
  3. Italy (nc) - 61.797 (2.500)
  4. Germany (nc) - 61.142 (2.500)
  5. France (nc) - 50.749 (2.250)
  6. Portugal (nc) - 40.549 (1.200)
  7. Russia (nc) - 35.465 (1.416)
  8. Belgium (nc) - 31.900 (1.400)
  9. Netherlands (+1) - 30.700 (0.700)
  10. Austria (+2) - 29.625 (0.500)
  11. Turkey (nc) - 28.200 (1.200)
  12. Ukraine (-3) - 27.700 (1.400)
  13. Scotland (+1) - 27.125 (2.250)
  14. Cyprus (+2) - 26.500 (2.500)
  15. Denmark (-2) - 25.375 (1.625)
  16. Serbia (+3) - 23.375 (2.125)
  17. Switzerland (nc) - 22.675 (1.375)
  18. Greece (nc) - 21.700 (0.800)
  19. Croatia (+1) - 21.175 (0.800)
  20. Israel (+30 - 20.500 (2.750)
  21. Czech Rep (-6) - 20.400 (0.500)
  22. Sweden (-1) - 19.875 (1.875)
  23. Bulgaria (+4) - 18.250 (1.875)
  24. Norway (-2) - 17.125 (2.625)
  25. Azerbaijan (+1) - 16.250 (1.875)
  26. Romania (+2) - 16.075 (1.625)
  27. Kazakhstan (-3) - 15.625 (1.000)
  28. Belarus (-3) - 15.125 (1.375)
  29. Slovenia (+3) - 14.000 (2.000)
  30. Hungary (+3) - 13.625 (2.375)
  31. Slovakia (-1) - 13.500 (1.375)
  32. Poland (-3) - 13.250 (2.125)
  33. Liechtenstein (-2) - 9.000 (0.500)
  34. Lithuania (+1) - 8.625 (1.500)
  35. Luxembourg (-1) - 8.250 (1.000)
  36. Macedonia (+3) - 7.500 (1.625)
  37. Bosnia (+3) - 7.250 (1.875)
  38. Ireland (+4) - 7.250 (1.250)
  39. Albania (-1) - 7.125 (1.875)
  40. N Ireland (+8) - 6.958 (2.833)
  41. Armenia (-5) - 6.875 (0.875)
  42. Latvia (-5) - 6.875 (0.875)
  43. Georgia (+1) - 6.625 (1.500)
  44. Moldova (-3) - 6.625 (1.125)
  45. Finland (-2) - 6.375 (0.875)
  46. Malta (-1) - 6.125 (1.250)
  47. Kosovo (+5) - 5.666 (1.666)
  48. Gibraltar (+1) - 5.666 (1.666)
  49. Faroe Is (+4) - 5.500 (2.125)
  50. Wales (-3) - 5.000 (1.500)
  51. Montenegro (-1) - 4.875 (1.500)
  52. Iceland (-6) - 4.875 (0.625)
  53. Estonia (-2) - 4.375 (1.000)
  54. Andorra (nc) - 3.331 (0.666)
  55. San Marino (nc) - 0.999 (0.333)
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I've got a feeling this is going to be a really poor year for us.

Celtic have already been put out the Champions League.  Whilst I think we will get past Riga I wouldn't be confident if we drew Red Star Belgrade or Ludogorets away in the PO round.

Rangers have got a tricky match away against Willem II and if they do get past that they'll be up against someone like Spurs, Galatasaray or APOEL.  Any of them away and I just can't see them getting past them.  

Both Celtic and Rangers need kind, home draws to have a chance in my opinion.

I can't see Aberdeen getting past Sporting or Motherwell getting past Hapoel, nevermind the teams after that.  

I think we will be doing well to have 1 team in the group stages this season.  

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2 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

I've got a feeling this is going to be a really poor year for us.

Celtic have already been put out the Champions League.  Whilst I think we will get past Riga I wouldn't be confident if we drew Red Star Belgrade or Ludogorets away in the PO round.

Rangers have got a tricky match away against Willem II and if they do get past that they'll be up against someone like Spurs, Galatasaray or APOEL.  Any of them away and I just can't see them getting past them.  

Both Celtic and Rangers need kind, home draws to have a chance in my opinion.

I can't see Aberdeen getting past Sporting or Motherwell getting past Hapoel, nevermind the teams after that.  

I think we will be doing well to have 1 team in the group stages this season.  

Celtic’s route to the champions league Groups was probably an easier route to a group stage than Motherwell, Aberdeen or Rangers given the “champions path” which I believe this is the last year of.

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Just now, sbcmfc said:

Celtic’s route to the champions league Groups was probably an easier route to a group stage than Motherwell, Aberdeen or Rangers given the “champions path” which I believe this is the last year of.

I'm not sure about that.  We are still playing teams that have won their leagues (the way it should be).  We should have beat the Hungarians but Lennon got the tactics completely wrong.  The one-leg ties do make it more exciting but harder to predict who will go through.  

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21 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

I'm not sure about that.  We are still playing teams that have won their leagues (the way it should be).  We should have beat the Hungarians but Lennon got the tactics completely wrong.  The one-leg ties do make it more exciting but harder to predict who will go through.  

The one legged ties definitely open up more shocks.

Amongst the Scottish football European hall of shame there’s a fair few disasters that were averted in the 2nd leg. Lincoln Red Imps v Celtic and Motherwell v Llanelli immediately spring to mind.

Coleraine last night just stuck 2 up front and went for it in the 2nd half, which they wouldn’t have done in a 2 legged tie.

Yes, Celtic are playing the champions, but the champions of Lapland, Kazakhstan and the faroes.

Aberdeen are playing sporting Lisbon.

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How does the seeding work? Is it based on individual teams previous performances or something else. 

I dont understand how Rangers can be unseeded given they finished 2nd in our league and got to the 2nd round of knockout stages last time out.

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45 minutes ago, Diamond Scot said:

How does the seeding work? Is it based on individual teams previous performances or something else. 

I dont understand how Rangers can be unseeded given they finished 2nd in our league and got to the 2nd round of knockout stages last time out.

Aberdeen aren’t seeded, sporting Lisbon are, but they base the draw on seed progressing as it’s done in advance.

Not sure if that clears it up any?

Each country has a base co-efficient, but clubs who have played in Europe in last 5 seasons will have their own (presuming it’s greater than the base).

Edited by sbcmfc
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1 hour ago, Diamond Scot said:

How does the seeding work? Is it based on individual teams previous performances or something else. 

I dont understand how Rangers can be unseeded given they finished 2nd in our league and got to the 2nd round of knockout stages last time out.

For clubs, it's based on the performance of the club in the previous five years of European competition.

A more complete run down:

Before the group stages, it's based purely on the round you were eliminated in; each club will ultimately be knocked out in the Europa League - so only applies to that competition (relevant for clubs dropping out of the Champions League). Each qualifying round is worth 0.5 points to the club: the preliminary round is 0.5, the first qualifying round is 1.0, up to the play-offs at 2.5.

When a club reaches the group stages of either competition, they start to gain points per each game played. Each win is 2.0 points; each draw 1.0 points. Teams in the Europa League are guaranteed a minimum of 3.0 points for reaching the group stages, should they earn less than 3.0 points from their group stage matches. A club gets an extra 4.0 points for reaching the Champions League group stages, an extra 5.0 points for reaching the Champions League knockout stages, and an extra point per round after the quarter-finals in both competitions.

When a club hasn't played in European competition in the past five years, they're allocated 20% of their country's coefficient. An example this season is Granada (Spain), who receive 20.456 points as that's 20% of Spain's overall score. The 20% score is used until they exceed it through their own performance.

In a draw where the winners of a tie is unknown, the points of the highest ranked team is used to determine seeding. This does allow the lower ranked team to 'obtain' the seeding of higher ranked team should they beat them; therefore playing a lower ranked opponent in the next round than they otherwise would.

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Each of these ties are very winnable if our sides can get through; being at home will help Motherwell, Aberdeen and Rangers. The draw could've been much worse for each of our teams.

2 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Hapoel Be'er Sheva or Motherwell v Viktoria Plzen or Sonderjyske

Could have been worse, but still can't see them getting past the Israelis. 

Right now, according to ClubElo, Hapoel Be'er Sheva and SønderjyskE are about as good as Hibs, while Viktoria Plzen are weaker than the Old Firm duo. Viktoria are difficult opponents for Motherwell to potentially face, but they're beatable on a one-off match at home.

SønderjyskE are potentially an unknown quantity given this is only their second European campaign. Any Danish side that qualifies for Europe is going to be a challenge regardless.

2 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Sporting or Aberdeen v LASK or DAC Dunajská Streda

LASK are probably as good as Sporting, with them finishing top of their group ahead of Sporting last season and beating them 3-0 at home. Home advantage may be the difference should Aberdeen get through and face LASK.

Dunajská are a similar standard to Hapoel Be'er Sheva, so they'll likely pose less of a challenge than Sporting or LASK.

2 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Willem II or Rangers v Galatasaray or Hajduk Split

Do-able for rangers. 

Galatasaray and Hajduk Split are probably both weaker than Rangers at the moment and with Rangers at home, I'd think they'd be the favourites against either.

Galatasaray did play in the Champions League last season, getting two draws in their games against Club Brugge, two 1-0 home defeats to PSG and Real Madrid and heavy 5-0 and 6-0 defeats respectively against both away. That maybe suggests that away from home they're not amazing. They're certainly not at the same level they have been in recent seasons.

Hajduk Split are probably weaker than Willem, with them being knocked out by Gzira United (Malta) last season and a few play-off appearances in the past seven or eight years.

2 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Sarajevo or Buducnost v Riga or Celtic

It could have been worse but 2 away ties makes it very tricky. 

On paper, Celtic should be comfortably be winning these ties. Sarajevo are the strongest on the three and Celtic eased past them in the first qualifying round last season. Riga are unbeaten at home in six European ties, including a win over Copenhagen last season - so it's not a case of turn up to win, but it shouldn't pose major headaches for Celtic.

Sarajevo haven't beaten anyone of note since an extra time away win over Greek side Atromitos in 2014-15. Budućnost have had a little bit more success at home, with a 0-0 draw against Partizan Belgrade in 2017-18 and a 2-0 win over Genk in 2016-17 (before losing on penalties).

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2 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Sarajevo or Buducnost v Riga or Celtic

It could have been worse but 2 away ties makes it very tricky. 

Behave Mick. 

If Celtic can't get past Sarajevo or Buducnost away (assuming they fix their defensive frailties v Riga) then they've no right being in the tournament and Lennon has no right being in the job.

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1 minute ago, Clyde1998 said:

Budućnost have had a little bit more success at home, with a 0-0 draw against Partizan Belgrade in 2017-18 and a 2-0 win over Genk in 2016-17 (before losing on penalties).

The Partizan Belgrade game was the first ever tie between Montenegrin and Serbian sides since independence in 2006. There was total lockdown in Podgorica that night, and the locals celebrated the draw like a victory for a couple of days afterwards. A bit like Celtic drawing with Liverpool now, I suppose.

I attended the Buducnost v Genk game. It featured one sprightly 35 year-old Thomas Buffel and a winning penalty scored by a Dutchman called Sandy Walsh. Seem to remember Genk may have got to last 16 that year too.

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Rangers game v Galatasaray is looking pretty important for this year’s coefficient (and their chances of a Champions League place in future seasons). 
 

Turkey are one place above us in the standings (we’re 12th). If Celtic win (!), knocking Galatasaray out leaves Turkey with one team in EL and one in CL, both in pot 4 I think.

Ukraine, Cyprus and Denmark are 13, 14 and 15. I have fallen into too much of a Wikipedia vortex and need to get out, so no idea what’s going on with their teams.

Österreich in 10th probably too far ahead to catch. Although their win points are divisible by 5 this year, the teams they have left in are decent enough to put in another good showing. 

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3 hours ago, Duncan Blackheart said:

Rangers game v Galatasaray is looking pretty important for this year’s coefficient (and their chances of a Champions League place in future seasons). 
 

Turkey are one place above us in the standings (we’re 12th). If Celtic win (!), knocking Galatasaray out leaves Turkey with one team in EL and one in CL, both in pot 4 I think.

Ukraine, Cyprus and Denmark are 13, 14 and 15. I have fallen into too much of a Wikipedia vortex and need to get out, so no idea what’s going on with their teams.

Österreich in 10th probably too far ahead to catch. Although their win points are divisible by 5 this year, the teams they have left in are decent enough to put in another good showing. 

The CL is not in our gift anymore.  Our teams cannot compete at that level.  All due to money and the size of the TV audience.  The Europa League is our best hope of excitement and relative success.  I wish it were otherwise but at this time I am ok with what we have in EL.  Looked at Derek McIness comments this morning.  Seems Dons were doing ok.  Just the killer touch as they werent that far ahead.  That is our level.  Unfortunately.

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On 9/18/2020 at 6:01 AM, sbcmfc said:

Celtic’s route to the champions league Groups was probably an easier route to a group stage than Motherwell, Aberdeen or Rangers given the “champions path” which I believe this is the last year of.

Is it confirmed that this is the last year of the "Champions Path"? I'd rather that there wasn't any seeding at all like a proper cup competition, but if they are going to keep favouring the big teams they have to stop favouring the diddy teams as well.

It leaves clubs in the middle (Aberdeen being a perfect example) almost certain to face one (or sometimes two) of the strongest teams in the draw before the group stage.

Dundalk got humped 3-0 by some Slovenian side at a neutral venue in the Champions qualifiers. They then get a second chance in the Europa league, where they have to face a Moldovan team, an Andorran team and a Faroese team in order to get to the group stage.

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