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On 8/14/2019 at 9:33 AM, RDFH64 said:

They’ve pinched other teams best players for peanuts for years, if they’d offered real value for McGinn & McKenna they would be a lot better now. They demand big money for their own players but low ball teams in Scotland, nobody to blame but their arrogant selves 😱

How do you stop big clubs in Scotland penny pinching players? It's been the same for years and the clubs have done nothing about it. Do you then deny players like Lewis Ferguson a move to a big club, just because the rules allow the transfer fee to be so low.

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9 minutes ago, Jon Cutler said:

How do you stop big clubs in Scotland penny pinching players? It's been the same for years and the clubs have done nothing about it. Do you then deny players like Lewis Ferguson a move to a big club, just because the rules allow the transfer fee to be so low.

I think the point which got lost in the argument is, Celtic or any other club shouldn;t moan about lack of competition when they contribute to it. 

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53 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

I think the point which got lost in the argument is, Celtic or any other club shouldn;t moan about lack of competition when they contribute to it. 

I think you are kind of right.  Buying players like Hendry, Morgan and Hayes does nobody any good.

However, the likes of Brown, Christie and Griffiths have been excellent signings.  

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37 minutes ago, PASTA Mick said:

I think you are kind of right.  Buying players like Hendry, Morgan and Hayes does nobody any good.

However, the likes of Brown, Christie and Griffiths have been excellent signings.  

Hendry was a joke signing. He was at his level at Dundee. 

Hayes can certainly do a job domestically. 

And Morgan needs time to develop. So maybe Celtic could have waited but they should be trying to ensure he gets game time at a decent level otherwise its a waste. 

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47 minutes ago, RenfrewBlue said:

Hendry was a joke signing. He was at his level at Dundee. 

Hayes can certainly do a job domestically. 

And Morgan needs time to develop. So maybe Celtic could have waited but they should be trying to ensure he gets game time at a decent level otherwise its a waste. 

Morgan was struggling in League 1 last season. He's never going to be good enough.

Hayes has been pretty dreadful every time he's been called upon.

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2 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

I think you are kind of right.  Buying players like Hendry, Morgan and Hayes does nobody any good.

However, the likes of Brown, Christie and Griffiths have been excellent signings.  

It's a vicious circle, aberdeen signed fergusson from hamilton. Weve signed players from other clubs with less resources but I guess aberdeen dont moan about lack of competition after it and it's fair enough to say celtic haven't dont that after this CL exit

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3 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

It's a vicious circle, aberdeen signed fergusson from hamilton. Weve signed players from other clubs with less resources but I guess aberdeen dont moan about lack of competition after it and it's fair enough to say celtic haven't dont that after this CL exit

They couldn't really complain about that though given they were pumped out by a team with significantly less resources than them.

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32 minutes ago, vanderark14 said:

It's a vicious circle, aberdeen signed fergusson from hamilton. Weve signed players from other clubs with less resources but I guess aberdeen dont moan about lack of competition after it and it's fair enough to say celtic haven't dont that after this CL exit

Teams are always going to take the better players from weaker teams.  I think Celtic have a fairly unique place in the food chain as we are so much stronger than most teams in our domestic league but a long way off the top level clubs in Europe and even the level after that.  You only need to see how many players we've sold to Southampton (the feeder club of England) to see our place.  

I think Scottish clubs suffer because England/Wales is so close and similar in language and culture.  Young players move south now before we get to see them at all in Scotland.  Fraser is probably the best example - 20-odd matches for Aberdeen before moving south for a next to nothing.  I noticed a few young players moving south this summer - Norwich took 2 or 3 and Swansea have taken loads over the last few years.  

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1 hour ago, PASTA Mick said:

Teams are always going to take the better players from weaker teams.  I think Celtic have a fairly unique place in the food chain as we are so much stronger than most teams in our domestic league but a long way off the top level clubs in Europe and even the level after that.  You only need to see how many players we've sold to Southampton (the feeder club of England) to see our place.  

I think Scottish clubs suffer because England/Wales is so close and similar in language and culture.  Young players move south now before we get to see them at all in Scotland.  Fraser is probably the best example - 20-odd matches for Aberdeen before moving south for a next to nothing.  I noticed a few young players moving south this summer - Norwich took 2 or 3 and Swansea have taken loads over the last few years.  

Aye, Norwich took a 17 year old boy from Motherwell that’s never been in the 1st team.

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After this week's fixtures, we've matched our 2017-18 points total. We've strengthened our hold on provisional fifteenth in next season's rankings - with the Celtic and Rangers results giving us a real chance of having two teams in the group stages again, which will be vital to achieving fifteenth by the end of next season.

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2018-19 Rankings following qualifiers: Country - Total (2018-19) / [CL teams + EL teams]

Green (4+ teams)Turquoise (3 teams); Orange (2 teams); Purple (1 team); Red (0 teams)

  1. Spain - 86.427 (3.071) / [4+3]
  2. England - 75.035 (3.143) / [4+3]
  3. Germany - 59.356 (3.000) / [4+3]
  4. Italy - 58.654 (2.786) / [4+2]
  5. France - 50.582 (2.667) / [3+2]
  6. Russia - 42.717 (1.833) / [2+2]
  7. Portugal - 42.449 (2.900) / [1+4]
  8. Belgium - 33.700 (3.400) / [2+2]
  9. Ukraine - 30.700 (1.800) / [1+2]
  10. Turkey - 30.600 (2.000) / [1+3]
  11. Netherlands - 30.350 (4.000) / [1+3]
  12. Austria - 28.525 (1.400) / [1+2]
  13. Czech Rep - 26.800 (2.100) / [1+0]
  14. Denmark - 25.750 (1.625) / [0+1]
  15. Cyprus - 25.250 (3.375) / [0+1]
  16. Greece - 25.100 (3.700) / [1+0]
  17. Croatia - 23.875 (3.375) / [1+0]
  18. Serbia - 23.500 (4.000) / [1+1]
  19. Scotland - 22.625 (4.500) / [0+2]
  20. Norway - 21.500 (3.500) / [0+1]
  21. Switzerland - 21.000 (0.800) / [0+3]
  22. Sweden - 20.750 (3.750) / [0+1]
  23. Israel - 20.000 (2.375) / [0+0]
  24. Belarus - 18.875 (2.500) / [0+0]
  25. Kazakhstan - 18.750 (2.875) / [0+1]
  26. Azerbaijan - 17.750 (2.375) / [0+1]
  27. Poland - 16.625 (2.125) / [0+0]
  28. Bulgaria - 15.875 (2.625) / [0+1]
  29. Slovakia - 15.375 (2.500) / [0+1]
  30. Romania - 14.200 (3.375) / [0+1]
  31. Liechtenstein - 13.500 (2.500) / [0+0]
  32. Slovenia - 13.000 (2.000) / [0+0]
  33. Hungary - 11.500 (3.125) / [0+1]
  34. Lithuania - 7.875 (1.625) / [0+0]
  35. Latvia - 7.750 (2.375) / [0+0]
  36. Armenia - 7.625 (2.750) / [0+0]
  37. Albania - 7.375 (0.750) / [0+0]
  38. Macedonia - 7.375 (0.500) / [0+0]
  39. Luxembourg - 7.250 (2.250) / [0+1]
  40. Bosnia - 6.875 (1.500) / [0+0]
  41. Moldova - 6.750 (0.750) / [0+0]
  42. Ireland - 6.700 (1.250) / [0+0]
  43. Finland - 6.375 (1.500) / [0+0]
  44. Georgia - 5.750 (2.250) / [0+0]
  45. Malta - 5.750 (0.750) / [0+0]
  46. Iceland - 5.375 (0.625) / [0+0]
  47. Wales - 5.000 (1.000) / [0+0]
  48. N Ireland - 4.875 (2.375) / [0+0]
  49. Gibraltar - 4.750 (1.000) / [0+0]
  50. Montenegro - 4.375 (1.000) / [0+0]
  51. Estonia - 4.375 (0.875) / [0+0]
  52. Kosovo - 4.000 (1.500) / [0+0]
  53. Faroe Is - 3.750 (1.125) / [0+0]
  54. Andorra - 2.831 (1.500) / [0+0]
  55. San Marino - 0.666 (0.000) / [0+0]
Edited by Clyde1998
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Using the ClubElo ratings, I've calculated the most likely outcome of every CL and EL group game to see what happen to the coefficient rankings by the end of the group stages.

  • 13 - Denmark - 27.500 (3.375) - Copenhagen to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 14 - Cyprus - 27.250 (5.375) - APOEL to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 15 - Czech Rep - 27.200 (2.500)
  • 16 - Greece - 25.900 (4.500) - Olympiacos to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 17 - Serbia - 25.000 (5.500)
  • 18 - Scotland - 24.375 (6.250)
  • 19 - Croatia - 24.375 (3.875)
  • 20 - Switzerland - 23.800 (3.600) - Young Boys to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 21 - Sweden - 22.000 (5.000)
  • 22 - Norway - 21.750 (3.750)

These calculations give Celtic one win, three draws and two defeats in the group stages and Rangers two draws and four defeats, with both being knocked out.

I believe that both could (perhaps, should) do better than that, so I'm viewing our ranking in this prediction as the minimum number of points we should be getting; I feel that both are underrated in these ratings when compared to similar strength teams.

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14 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

Using the ClubElo ratings, I've calculated the most likely outcome of every CL and EL group game to see what happen to the coefficient rankings by the end of the group stages.

  • 13 - Denmark - 27.500 (3.375) - Copenhagen to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 14 - Cyprus - 27.250 (5.375) - APOEL to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 15 - Czech Rep - 27.200 (2.500)
  • 16 - Greece - 25.900 (4.500) - Olympiacos to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 17 - Serbia - 25.000 (5.500)
  • 18 - Scotland - 24.375 (6.250)
  • 19 - Croatia - 24.375 (3.875)
  • 20 - Switzerland - 23.800 (3.600) - Young Boys to reach EL knockout stage.
  • 21 - Sweden - 22.000 (5.000)
  • 22 - Norway - 21.750 (3.750)

These calculations give Celtic one win, three draws and two defeats in the group stages and Rangers two draws and four defeats, with both being knocked out.

I believe that both could (perhaps, should) do better than that, so I'm viewing our ranking in this prediction as the minimum number of points we should be getting; I feel that both are underrated in these ratings when compared to similar strength teams.

without going back through the thread where does that leave us then, if this is your worst case. 

were we 18 at start of this year? what are we aiming for .?

cheers

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20 hours ago, stocky said:

without going back through the thread where does that leave us then, if this is your worst case. 

were we 18 at start of this year? what are we aiming for .?

cheers

At the end of last season we were twentieth, so this would see us improve two places. We're aiming for the top fifteen by the end of next season, as that would give us an extra Champions League place - five teams in Europe, instead of the current four - as well as ensuring that the Scottish Cup winners will play in the Europa League instead of the new third tier competition (which our remaining two teams would play in regardless).

We'd be in fifteenth in next season's rankings before a ball is kicked, meaning that we only have to match the results of the countries below us to finish in the top fifteen (if you take the average of last season's points and my projected points for this season above for next season, we'd actually be fourteenth by the end of next season - within our target).

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10 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

At the end of last season we were twentieth, so this would see us improve two places. We're aiming for the top fifteen by the end of next season, as that would give us an extra Champions League place - five teams in Europe, instead of the current four - as well as ensuring that the Scottish Cup winners will play in the Europa League instead of the new third tier competition (which our remaining two teams would play in regardless).

We'd be in fifteenth in next season's rankings before a ball is kicked, meaning that we only have to match the results of the countries below us to finish in the top fifteen (if you take the average of last season's points and my projected points for this season above for next season, we'd actually be fourteenth by the end of next season - within our target).

Can I just clarify your second paragraph.  If the results you've predicted in on Wednesday come to fruition that would mean we'll start next season at 15 in the rankings which, if we then at least match the teams below us, would be enough for to CL places and 5 overall places in season 21/22?

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2 minutes ago, Fairbairn said:

Can I just clarify your second paragraph.  If the results you've predicted in on Wednesday come to fruition that would mean we'll start next season at 15 in the rankings which, if we then at least match the teams below us, would be enough for to CL places and 5 overall places in season 21/22?

So the rankings cover a five year period. This season includes 2015-16 to 2019-20 (this season).

Next season includes 2016-17 to 2020-21 (next season). At the start of next season, where no points will have been awarded for 2020-21 at that stage, we'd be 15th should the predicted results occur. Matching the countries below us in the 2020-21 season would enable us to remain in (at least) fifteenth, which would give us the extra CL place and five places in total for the 2021-22 season.

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3 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

So the rankings cover a five year period. This season includes 2015-16 to 2019-20 (this season).

Next season includes 2016-17 to 2020-21 (next season). At the start of next season, where no points will have been awarded for 2020-21 at that stage, we'd be 15th should the predicted results occur. Matching the countries below us in the 2020-21 season would enable us to remain in (at least) fifteenth, which would give us the extra CL place and five places in total for the 2021-22 season.

I'm taking that as a yes!! :lol:

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 9/4/2019 at 10:55 PM, Clyde1998 said:

These calculations give Celtic one win, three draws and two defeats in the group stages and Rangers two draws and four defeats, with both being knocked out.

I believe that both could (perhaps, should) do better than that, so I'm viewing our ranking in this prediction as the minimum number of points we should be getting; I feel that both are underrated in these ratings when compared to similar strength teams.

Rangers already done better than this prediction and a decent start for Celtic.

I think both groups will be close at the end. 

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4 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Rangers already done better than this prediction and a decent start for Celtic.

I think both groups will be close at the end. 

With Cluj winning last night it has certainly thrown the cat amongst the pigeons in Celtics group. 

If we can get anything against Young Boys we'll be in a decent position. 

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