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Nations League


exile

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On 8/9/2018 at 9:54 AM, exile said:

If I follow correctly (someone correct me if I am wrong), a club version of the Nations League would be something like:

We're the equivalent of Raith Rovers, down in League One, but dreaming of the glory days and European nights. League One is split into mini groups of three and four teams. Raith is a top seeded side, drawn with a mid table side (say, East Fife) and newly promoted Stenhousemuir. So without being complacent, Raith must reasonably fancy their chances to win that mini group.

If they win that mini group they get promoted to play in the next tier up, i.e. Championship football next year.

But also if they win it they also go into play-offs with the other leading teams in the league - say, Dumbarton and Brechin City. If they win those play-offs they get a place in Europe!

In other words rather than having to work their way up through the Championship, then having to win promotion to the Premiership and then get into the top six and then finish in the top 4, they get a direct ticket from League 1. Isn't that an incredible opportunity?

So in this scenario - imagining a suitably enlarged Europa League format - the European qualifiers from Scotland would be (say) Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, Hibernian, Dundee United (imagining they win the Championship play-off), Raith Rovers and Peterhead, say. So a great opportunity for Raith, but also, note that they have more chance of more quickly getting into Europe, than Ayr or Alloa, who would be having to fight it out with the likes of Partick and Inverness. It could be easier for Stirling to get into Europe than Alloa, etc.

So the very next game - as it happens, Raith v Stenhousemuir this Saturday - would be the first step on that path to revive the glory days.

And the Scotland equivalent is Scotland v Albania.   

I think that demonstrates what a great chance this is for us.   Your "stop losing to teams a little better than Georgia" is the worrying bit of course.

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2 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

I think we could still get pot 3 if we finish second in our Nations League group, in fact we could still make the playoffs. 

Top 6 in Division C (4 gorup winners and the two best second place teams) go to pot three for Euro 2020 qualification, and the other 9 go to pot four.

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3 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

I prefer to base our chances on what I think will happen over the next 3 months, not what happened over the last 4 years. 

 

Hmm not sure how one is supposed to form opinion of future if dismissing consideration of past form. Just going by rankings and probabilities, maybe. But rankings are based on the past too. 

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1 hour ago, exile said:

Hmm not sure how one is supposed to form opinion of future if dismissing consideration of past form. Just going by rankings and probabilities, maybe. But rankings are based on the past too. 

Recent past form may be a good indicator but the games you’re talking about happened 3-4 years ago!

Germany were world champions 4 years ago and they were utter pish at the World Cup there. A lot can happen in 4 years in football so what happened against Ireland and Georgia in the Euro 2016 is 100% irrelevant when it comes to the 2018 Nations League. 

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4 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

Wales and the two Irelands are both ranked well above us though. Albania are not. 

Albania came third in their last group but finished a mile behind Italy and Spain (understandably so) but they had three poor teams below them. They also lost 0-3 at home to Israel and only just beat Macedonia with a last minute winner so going to Albania shouldn’t hold any fears for us.

Scotland also normally finish 3rd or 4th in their group and finished 3rd in our last group. 

I’d say we were justified favourites. Only just though and as we all know, being favourites means nothing. 

Rankings are only really part of the story, we've seen that in recent times how Swiss have manipulated the system by playing few friendlies and so get good rankings for qualifying groups and then the main event.

I believe Uefa is changing this at long last.

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2 hours ago, Tartan Chris said:

Rankings are only really part of the story, we've seen that in recent times how Swiss have manipulated the system by playing few friendlies and so get good rankings for qualifying groups and then the main event.

I believe Uefa is changing this at long last.

The limitations of the world rankings are well known but the fact is if you win a lot of games you go up the rankings and if you lose a lot of games you drop down them.

Albania are no World beaters (neither are we of course) and Israel are quite a poor team. 

If we can’t go into this Nations League with the group we have feeling confident that we can win the group then we might as well not bother playing anymore. 

Nothing is guaranteed and we could easily finish second or even bottom if we make an absolute arse if it but I’m feeling confident that we’ll win our home games. 

We’ve got the benefit of playing our first and last games at home. We also play our last game 3 days after Albania play theirs so we’ll know exactly what we need to do against Israel at Hampden (assuming we’re still in with a shout of winning the group by then). 

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50 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

The limitations of the world rankings are well known but the fact is if you win a lot of games you go up the rankings and if you lose a lot of games you drop down them.

I remember reading about a team cant remember what country but they rocketed up the ranking as they didnt play none or very few friendlies and ended up getting in a very good pot 

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25 minutes ago, borojock said:

I remember reading about a team cant remember what country but they rocketed up the ranking as they didnt play none or very few friendlies and ended up getting in a very good pot 

You can’t exactly rocket up the rankings simply by playing no friendlies. You also need to have a decent record in your competitive games. A few teams have manipulated their ranking by being very selective with when they play and who they play and by playing very few friendlies. Switzerland and Wales have been good at this recently. 

Scotland have chosen to play 4 friendlies this year against teams far better than us and 2 against half decent opposition. We may end up losing 5 of them which won’t help our world ranking. 

Luckily the rankings don’t mean much at the moment since the qualifying pots for Euro 2020 will be decided by the Nations League. 

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44 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

You can’t exactly rocket up the rankings simply by playing no friendlies. You also need to have a decent record in your competitive games. A few teams have manipulated their ranking by being very selective with when they play and who they play and by playing very few friendlies. Switzerland and Wales have been good at this recently. 

Scotland have chosen to play 4 friendlies this year against teams far better than us and 2 against half decent opposition. We may end up losing 5 of them which won’t help our world ranking. 

Luckily the rankings don’t mean much at the moment since the qualifying pots for Euro 2020 will be decided by the Nations League. 

poland were the team i was thinking about they were 5th in the rankings about 18 months ago, flying high on that rocket 

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23 minutes ago, borojock said:

poland were the team i was thinking about they were 5th in the rankings about 18 months ago, flying high on that rocket 

We were 14th not long ago but it didn’t have anything to do with not playing friendlies. 

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On 8/11/2018 at 1:05 AM, exile said:

Yes I know that but when do we ever play in a three way group?*  As I say, the nations league is new territory, everything we try to say about it is hypothetical, yet that doesn't stop everyone making predictions about the future based on past matches that happened in different circumstances. We're all just coming from it from different angles.... but seem to be drawing the same conclusions anyway

* 1978 World Cup qualifiers

Nations league will be very new territory if we reach the knock out stages!

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2 hours ago, jamboman said:

When is the squad announced for these games september?

 

Must be in about a weeks time

 

2 hours ago, PASTA Mick said:

Another 2 weeks I expect. 

It’s normally the Monday about 10 or so days before the game isn’t it? I would guess it will on or around Monday 27th of August. 

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2 hours ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Nations league will be very new territory if we reach the knock out stages!

The knockout stages of the Nations League are only open to League A teams and will be contested in June 2019. 

Our involvement in the 2018 Nations League will end in November this year. 

If we win our Nations League group then we will qualify for the playoffs for Euro 2020 (which we might not need to play if we qualify outright) which will take place in March 2020 and is not part of the Nations League tournament.  

We have been involved in several playoffs over the years so making these playoffs would hardly be new territory although it’s a new format of playoff in fairness. 

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1 hour ago, Texas Pete said:

The knockout stages of the Nations League are only open to League A teams and will be contested in June 2019. 

Our involvement in the 2018 Nations League will end in November this year. 

If we win our Nations League group then we will qualify for the playoffs for Euro 2020 (which we might not need to play if we qualify outright) which will take place in March 2020 and is not part of the Nations League tournament.  

We have been involved in several playoffs over the years so making these playoffs would hardly be new territory although it’s a new format of playoff in fairness. 

I give up,going to move to a desert island somewhere with my own interpretation of how this all works.

WTF is this group A game play offs in June about, will the normal format for qualification even have finished by then?

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33 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

I give up,going to move to a desert island somewhere with my own interpretation of how this all works.

WTF is this group A game play offs in June about, will the normal format for qualification even have finished by then?

The Nations League finals are not the playoffs. I would be amazed if anyone from League A, never mind the 4 group winners, needs to enter the playoffs. 

The Nations League finals will take place in June 2019 which is in the middle of the qualifiers. This is why the 4 League A group winners are guaranteed a group of 5 in the qualifiers. 

The playoffs take place in March 2020. 16 teams will take part in these playoffs. I would imagine that all 12 League A teams will qualify through the qualifying groups in the traditional way (although there could be a shock I suppose). 

The teams that contest the playoffs will be the 16 best ranked teams from the Nations League that don’t qualify outright. 

It would be highly unlikely but I suppose a team could get to the Nations League finals and come 3rd or 4th in their qualifying group. If this happens then that team would enter the playoffs in March 2020. 

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OK,  just keep things simple,  one step at a time.   Win this group and put aside whatever happens afterwards.

Not something that we are used to (cursed as favourites), but should we totally fail, the bright side is that the euros in 2024 from group D should be...    ...easy    :unsure:

 

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3 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

OK,  just keep things simple,  one step at a time.   Win this group and put aside whatever happens afterwards.

Not something that we are used to (cursed as favourites), but should we totally fail, the bright side is that the euros in 2024 from group D should be...    ...easy    :unsure:

 

If you want to do that then fair enough. Other people might want to discuss it though. If that’s ok with you? 😂

We also probably wouldn’t be in League D for the 2022 Nations League as it’s being held every 2 years (although FIFA are considering a similar tournament which would confuse matters). Surely we’d get promoted again in 2020?

Assuming the UEFA Nations League is held every 2 years then we would be in League D for the 2020 season. This Nations League would either offer a playoff place to group winners for the 2022 World Cup (this hasn’t been agreed yet) or more likely, will not affect the World Cup qualifiers at all. 

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32 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

If you want to do that then fair enough. Other people might want to discuss it though. If that’s ok with you? 😂

We also probably wouldn’t be in League D for the 2022 Nations League as it’s being held every 2 years (although FIFA are considering a similar tournament which would confuse matters). Surely we’d get promoted again in 2020?

Assuming the UEFA Nations League is held every 2 years then we would be in League D for the 2020 season. This Nations League would either offer a playoff place to group winners for the 2022 World Cup (this hasn’t been agreed yet) or more likely, will not affect the World Cup qualifiers at all. 

Oh ffs :wtf:   I thought I was following this too.

Anyway, I quite like the idea of the NL.   Lets see how it goes.   Hope I'm around to do a Little Big Man and reminisce about how it was in the old days.  

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7 minutes ago, scottincarlisle said:

The nations league is our best chance ever to qualify. 6 games against teams alike. Win games 5 & 6 and you are at 2020.

The normal qualification group will have us playing 10 games  (?) against tougher teams & having to finish top 2 (which we haven't done recently)

I’m not sure it’s any easier a chance than qualifying for Euro 2016. 

If we had finished third in our group we would have had one playoff, over two legs, against a team of a similar level to us. 

It could turn out a better chance if we do win our group and end up playing both playoff games at Hampden but apart from that I would say it’s about the same. 

I suppose there’s a better chance of making the playoffs this time since there will be 16 teams playing off instead of 8. The playoffs themselves could be tougher though, especially if we are away. 

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14 hours ago, ceudmilefailte said:

I give up,going to move to a desert island somewhere with my own interpretation of how this all works.

WTF is this group A game play offs in June about, will the normal format for qualification even have finished by then?

It's not "group A". It's "league A"

You are adding to your own confusion by using the wrong names.

There are 4 Leagues- A,B,C and D. Each league is split into four groups 1,2,3 and 4.

Scotland are in League C group 1, for example.

The top 12 ranked teams are in League A. They are split into four groups of three teams. The four winners of each of those groups play semi finals and a final in June 2019 to decide who wins the Nations League trophy. These are NOT play offs.

The play offs for EURO2020 are separate and take place the the following March.

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

It's not "group A". It's "league A"

You are adding to your own confusion by using the wrong names.

There are 4 Leagues- A,B,C and D. Each league is split into four groups 1,2,3 and 4.

Scotland are in League C group 1, for example.

The top 12 ranked teams are in League A. They are split into four groups of three teams. The four winners of each of those groups play semi finals and a final in June 2019 to decide who wins the Nations League trophy. These are NOT play offs.

The play offs for EURO2020 are separate and take place the the following March.

I don't think anyone should need any more explanation after reading this post. :ok:

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On ‎8‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 12:50 PM, Texas Pete said:

I think we could still get pot 3 if we finish second in our Nations League group, in fact we could still make the playoffs. 

We would need to be one of the best runners up though and unless at least one of the teams that won their League C groups also qualified outright, our playoffs could be against League B opposition. 

 

Yeah, I prefer to not take our chance, let's just treat it as top or bust and at least then we have the right mentality. Footballers love an excuse to underperform.

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