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Europa league qualifiers


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24 minutes ago, theweestevie said:

Seems to be a running theme this season unforunately.

I was pretty happy with Burnley tbh. It's a winnable tie. 

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I've been working on a 'club rating system' based on the quality of players* the club used in the previous season weighted by how many minutes they've played. Using a calculation used to work out ELO scores, I can find the 'expected' probability of each side winning their ties:

Aberdeen (1154.57):

  • Burnley (1367.71) - 22.67%
  • İstanbul Başakşehir (1314.47) - 28.49%
  • Will reach play-off round - 6.46%

Hibernian (1077.91):

  • Asteras Tripolis (1067.22) - 51.54%
  • Molde (1169.62) - 37.10% or Laçi (935.00) - 69.48%
  • Will reach play-off round - 22.55%

Rangers (1148.41):

  • Osijek (1111.62) - 55.27%
  • Maribor (1128.18) - 52.91% or Chikhura Sachkhere (778.64) - 89.36%
  • Will reach play-off round - 31.62%

*Quality of players is based on their current ability on Football Manager 2018 (Update 18.3.0).

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On 7/20/2018 at 1:59 PM, vanderark14 said:

 

the only person embarrassing themselves in this thread is you

Why? Because I can see the bigger picture and you can't or won't? 

I'm not saying Rangers are blameless or even remotely innocent but to say they are the cause of the issue is just inaccurate pish from folk who are pathologically unable to accept anything positive being said about Rangers. 

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2 hours ago, Fairbairn said:

Maribor for Rangers if we get by the Croatians.  Given it was down to a choice of 2 between them and Feyenoord it could have been worse!  Still not sure we'll get by this round mind you.

Totally agree. Tough draws all round really. 

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4 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

would love to see aberdeen give burnley a good game.

scottish football is definitely on the up but we've fallen down every year in europe.  it's about time one of the other teams made a bit more of a fist of it.

Totallt agree.  Got a good feeling though for first time in years.  Celtic will struggle in CL but might do well in Europa.  Maybe an old firm Europe tie?  Has that ever happened btw?  Where two Scottish teams have met in Europe?

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2 minutes ago, Rolling hIlls said:

Has that ever happened btw?  Where two Scottish teams have met in Europe?

No: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_football_matches_between_British_clubs_in_UEFA_competitions

Largely because until the later rounds of each competition, teams from the same country are kept apart.

Edited by Clyde1998
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17 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

would love to see aberdeen give burnley a good game.

scottish football is definitely on the up but we've fallen down every year in europe.  it's about time one of the other teams made a bit more of a fist of it.

Aberdeen could be a wee nasty surprise for Burnley. they are the ones more experienced in European terms and have had these early season starts for a few years now. 

Fingers crossed, as it'd certainly upset the English Media who absolutely love Burnley just now. 

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The last couple of ties between English and Scottish teams haven't gone the way the English media would expect them to - Celtic getting two draws against Man City (2016) and Liverpool requiring a late goal to knockout Hearts (2012). I think Aberdeen could stun Burnley at Pittodrie and give them something to defend in the second leg. Anyone who thinks all Burnley need to do to win is show up will be in for a rude awakening, IMO.

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2 minutes ago, Jersey Jim said:

Is the first leg of the Aberdeen game on telly this week? 

It's not on any of the lists that I can see - the second leg is on BT. I'd be surprised if the first leg isn't being shown somewhere though.

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4 hours ago, RenfrewBlue said:

Why? Because I can see the bigger picture and you can't or won't? 

I'm not saying Rangers are blameless or even remotely innocent but to say they are the cause of the issue is just inaccurate pish from folk who are pathologically unable to accept anything positive being said about Rangers. 

Aye thats it, you've got me sussed. Tedious child

Edited by vanderark14
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6 hours ago, Tartan_McCole said:

Sure they're a bit older now, but some of the names in the Başakşehir squad would give me the fear.

Yup. Some real class in their squad. Inler in the middle of the Park, turan wide and Adebayour up front. 

6 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

I've been working on a 'club rating system' based on the quality of players* the club used in the previous season weighted by how many minutes they've played. Using a calculation used to work out ELO scores, I can find the 'expected' probability of each side winning their ties:

Aberdeen (1154.57):

  • Burnley (1367.71) - 22.67%
  • İstanbul Başakşehir (1314.47) - 28.49%
  • Will reach play-off round - 6.46%

Hibernian (1077.91):

  • Asteras Tripolis (1067.22) - 51.54%
  • Molde (1169.62) - 37.10% or Laçi (935.00) - 69.48%
  • Will reach play-off round - 22.55%

Rangers (1148.41):

  • Osijek (1111.62) - 55.27%
  • Maribor (1128.18) - 52.91% or Chikhura Sachkhere (778.64) - 89.36%
  • Will reach play-off round - 31.62%

*Quality of players is based on their current ability on Football Manager 2018 (Update 18.3.0).

Fair play. Sounds like a lot of work has gone in to that!

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7 hours ago, Clyde1998 said:

No: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_football_matches_between_British_clubs_in_UEFA_competitions

Largely because until the later rounds of each competition, teams from the same country are kept apart.

Interesting page :ok: 

I mind in 1984 there were 2 Scottish and 4 English teams in the 6 European competition semi finals and they all avoided each other.

 

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6 hours ago, Toepoke said:

Interesting page :ok: 

I mind in 1984 there were 2 Scottish and 4 English teams in the 6 European competition semi finals and they all avoided each other.

 

I remember a lot of us getting excited about the prospect of defending our trophy against Man Utd in the final, changed days indeed. I don't think we have a chance at all against Burnley, would have been an interesting tie before Sky bankrolled them. 

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17 hours ago, Parklife said:

Fair play. Sounds like a lot of work has gone in to that!

Yeah - I've been going for about a month now and I've done over 200 clubs, including all teams in the top four divisions in England and Scotland.

Gives a decent guide to how good each team's squad is, but doesn't factor in things like the quality of manager, tactics, summer transfers, etc. My intention is to use it like the ELO rankings, so each team's rating would change after matches - effectively self correcting itself over time. It does give a good picture on how European football has been distorted by money; given the financial gap between England and Scotland it's clear that our top clubs have held on fairly well.

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37 minutes ago, Clyde1998 said:

Yeah - I've been going for about a month now and I've done over 200 clubs, including all teams in the top four divisions in England and Scotland.

Gives a decent guide to how good each team's squad is, but doesn't factor in things like the quality of manager, tactics, summer transfers, etc. My intention is to use it like the ELO rankings, so each team's rating would change after matches - effectively self correcting itself over time. It does give a good picture on how European football has been distorted by money; given the financial gap between England and Scotland it's clear that our top clubs have held on fairly well.

How do your rankings compare with the final league positions?   Or have you frigged it to match prior to the season kicking off?

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12 minutes ago, Grim Jim said:

How do your rankings compare with the final league positions?   Or have you frigged it to match prior to the season kicking off?

I think you’ll find that’s Dan Cake’s job when an English team are on. 

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